• Title/Summary/Keyword: M-estimation

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Estimation of Optimal Harvest Volume for the Long-term Forest Management Planning using Goal Programming (장기산림경영계획의 목표수확량 산출을 위한 목표계획법의 적용)

  • Won, Hyun-Kyu;Kim, Young-Hwan;Kwon, Soon-Duk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.1
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    • pp.125-131
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    • 2009
  • To facilitate the sustainable forest management, Forest Service in Korea has assigned 2.9 million hectare forests as 'intensive management forests' and encouraged local governments to develop a strategic management plan for their forests. One of problems for the sustainable forest management in Korea is the skewed distribution of forest age classes. Currently the majority of forestlands in Korea is occupied by age classes III and IV. In this study, we intended to find an optimum harvest volume, which enable one to make the intensive management forest in Youngdong-Gun evenly distributed for the age classes and allow an even harvest volume through a 50 year time horizon. To develop an optimization model, we applied the goal programming technique which is adequate for a multi-purpose management planning. The results indicated that it is necessary to harvest 1.2 million cubic meters in each decade to achieve the most stable distribution of age classes for the study site. The harvest volume target resulted from this study would be used in a management planning or an associated policy making process in the future.

Estimation of Ultimate Methane Yields and Biodegradability from Urban Stream Sediments Using BMP Test (BMP(Biochemical Methane Potential) test를 통한 도심하천 퇴적물의 최종메탄발생수율 및 생분해도 산정)

  • Song, Jaehong;Kim, Seogku;Lee, Junki;Koh, Taehoon;Lee, Taeyoon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 2010
  • The main objective of this study was to offer informations about the current conditions of stream sediments and to evaluate biochemical methane potentials of stream sediments from the urban streams in Busan city using conventional BMP tests. First we select total 5 urban streams and collect sediment samples. Then, COD, proximate analysis, volatile solid, organic carbon content and elemental analysis were conducted to determine characteristics of the sediments. Results show that COD, volatile solid and organic carbon content are determined in the range of $15.20{\sim}75.07mg\;g^{-1}$, 2.34~11.54% and 1.28~34.21%, respectively. Also, several biochemical methane potential tests were performed in a laboratory. As a result, pH values of the reactors generally increased and then stabilized at 7.11~7.35. In addition, C/N ratio, ultimate methane and carbon dioxide yield (mL/g VS) and biodegradability (%) were determined to 1.05~10.27, 10.1~179.4, 10.3~34.4 and 4.0~30.1, respectively. For the determination of the correlations between ultimate methane yield and ultimate carbon dioxide yield, C/N ratio, COD, volatile solid and organic carbon content, a linear model was fitted to the data using a least-squares algorithm. As a result, except for COD ($r^2=0.7586$) and volatile solid ($r^2=0.7876$), Linear model was well fitted to each data with good values of the correlation coefficient ($r^2=0.9795{\sim}0.9858$). Finally, we propose empirical equations, which contain C/N ratio or TOC, for the prediction of ultimate methane yield for the urban streams in Busan city.

A Study on Estimation of Systolic Blood Pressure using PTT (PTT를 이용한 수축기 혈압의 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Park E. K.;Lee S. M.;Han Y. H.;Lee J. Y.;Kwon S. Y.;Kim I. Y.;Kim Sun I.
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.605-609
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    • 2004
  • Blood pressure (BP) is one of the important physiological parameters for diagnosing cardiovascula diseases by means of noninvasive method. Existing noninvasive methods for measuring arterial BP have to use cuff and difficult in measuring arterial BP continuously. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and pulse transit time (PTT) have a kind of inverse relationship. We acquired PTT data when subjects were in relaxation and also after exercise. We performed the linear regression analysis for making the regression equations for each subject and the regression equation for all subjects. We compared the estimated SBP with the measured SBP to check the accuracy of our regression equations. From the result, the regression equations for each subject was appropriate according to the American National Standards Institute of the Association of the Advancement of Medical Instrument (ANSI/AAMI) which says that BP devices should have ±5mmHg mean of error and 8mmHg standard deviation of error. However, the regression equation for all subjects was not proper to ANSI/AAMI recommendation. The result means that, without cuff, we can continuously estimate each subject's SBP through PTT and indivisual calibration.

Estimation of Benzene Emissions from Mobile Sources in Korea (국내 이동오염원에서 발생되는 벤젠 배출량 산정)

  • Lee, Ju-Hyoung;Cha, Jun-Seok;Hong, Ji-Hyung;Jung, Dong-Il;Kim, Ji-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.72-82
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    • 2008
  • Benzene is a very harmful and toxic compound known as human carcinogen by all routes of exposure. Owing to the risky feature of benzene, several countries such as Japan, UK and EU have established the ambient air quality standard and protect from that risk of it. Korea also has designated it as one of the criteria air pollutants and established the concentration limit ($5\;{\mu}g/m^3$) in the air and is going to apply the standard from 2010. Benzene is emitted from various sources such as combustion plants, production processes, waste treatment facilities and also automobiles. Mobile source is known as one of the major emission sources of benzene. In this study, we estimated the domestic emissions of benzene from mobile source and compared the results with those of advanced countries. Mobile source was divided into 2 categories, Le., on-road source and non-road source. The total emissions of benzene from mobile source were estimated as 3,106 tons/yr and 1,612 tons/yr was emitted from on-road source and 1,494 tons/yr was from non-road source. Emission ratio of benzene from on-road source showed that 80.0% was from passenger cars, 10.1% was from taxis, 7.2% was from light-duty vehicles, 2.5% was from heavy-duty vehicles and 0.2% was from buses. In the case of non-road source, the distribution showed that 66.3% was from construction machineries, 14.5% was from locomotives, 11.7% was from ships, 7.1% was from agriculture equipments and 0.5% was from aircrafts. The cold-start emissions were estimated as 942 tons/yr and this value was almost 1.5 times greater than that for hot engine emissions (608 tons/yr). In addition, the fuel-based distribution was 65.9%, 31.1% and 2.8% from gasoline, LPG and diesel vehicles, respectively. The emission ratio from mobile source occupied 65% and 30% of total benzene emissions in USA and UK, respectively. In case of Korea, the emission ratio of benzene from mobile source occupied 29% (15% from on-road source, 14% from non-road source) which showed similar value with UK.

Estimation of Tidal Residual Flow and Its Variability in Kyunggi Bay of Korea (경기만 조석 잔차류 산정 및 변동성)

  • Kim, Chang-S.;Lim, H.S.;Kim, Jin-Ah;Kim, Seon-Jeong;Park, K.S.;Jung, K.T.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.353-360
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    • 2010
  • The Kyunggi Bay in mid-west of Korea is a relatively large estuarine system that connects the Han River system with Yellow Sea. Due to macro-tidal range of more than 8 m, the urban estuary shows deep tidal channels and wide tidal flats. Since last 30 years, the coastal development is undergoing, yielding noticeable change in environment. Particularly the tidal flat dynamics are generally accepted as being related with tidal residual flows in this area (Kim et al., 2009). We have estimated the annual variation and vertical structure of residual currents with one-year long observed flows in two major tidal channels of Kyunggi Bay. The moving average method and tidal current harmonic analysis yield nearly the same results on residual flow. The residual flow in Jangbong channel ranges from 20 cm/s in summer to 30 cm/s in winter. It is noticeable that the residual flow in Jangbong channel is flood dominant throughout the year, while the flow in Seokmo channel is ebb-dominant residual flow with current speed range of 20-40 cm/s. Due to the baroclinic response of relatively shallow estuary, significant reduction of energy in bottom layers have been observed, indicating the importance of residual circulation to the tidal flat behavior.

Development of CFD model for Predicting Ventilation Rate based on Age of Air Theory using Thermal Distribution Data in Pig House (돈사 내부 열환경 분포의 공기연령 이론법 적용을 통한 전산유체역학 환기 예측 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Rack-woo;Lee, In-bok;Ha, Tae-hwan;Yeo, Uk-hyeon;Lee, Sang-yeon;Lee, Min-hyung;Park, Gwan-yong;Kim, Jun-gyu
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.6
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2017
  • The tracer gas method has an advantage that can estimate total and local ventilation rate by tracing air flow. However, the field measurement using tracer gas has disadvantages such as danger, inefficiency, and high cost. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate ventilation rate in pig house by using the thermal distribution data rather than tracer gas. Especially, LMA (Local Mean Age), which is an index based on the age of air theory, was used to evaluate the ventilation rate in pig house. Firstly, the field experiment was conducted to measure micro-climate inside pig house, such as the air temperature, $CO_2$ concentration and wind velocity. And then, LMA was calculated based on the decay of $CO_2$ concentration and air temperature, respectively. This study compared between LMA determined by $CO_2$ concentration and air temperature; the average error and root mean square error were 3.76 s and 5.34 s. From these results, it was determined that thermal distribution data could be used for estimation of LMA. Finally, CFD (Computational fluid dynamic) model was validated using LMA and wind velocity. The mesh size was designed to be 0.1 m based on the grid independence test, and the Standard $k-{\omega}$ model was eventually chosen as the proper turbulence model. The developed CFD model was highly appropriate for evaluating the ventilation rate in pig house.

Development of Operating Speed Prediction Models Reflecting Alignment Characteristics of the Upstream Road Sections at Four-Lane Rural Uninterrupted Flow Facility (상류부 선형특성을 반영한 지방부 왕복 4차로 연속류 도로의 주행속도 예측모형 개발)

  • Jo, Won-Beom;Kim, Yong-Seok;Choe, Jae-Seong;Kim, Sang-Yeop;Kim, Jin-Guk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.141-153
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    • 2010
  • The study is about the development of operating speed prediction models aimed for an evaluation of design consistency of four lane rural roads. The main differences of this study relative to previous research are the method of data collection and classification of road alignments. The previous studies collected speed data at several points in the horizontal curve and approaching tangent. This method of collection is based on the assumption that acceleration and deceleration only occurs at horizontal tangents and the speed is kept constant at horizontal curves. However, this assumption leads to an unreliable speed estimation, so drivers' behavior is not well represented. Contrary to the previous approach, speed data were collected with one and data analysis using a speed profile is made for data selection before building final models. A total of six speed prediction models were made according to the combination of horizontal and vertical alignments. The study predicts that the speed data analysis and selection for model building employed in this study can improve the prediction accuracy of models and be useful to analyze drivers' speed behavior in a more detailed way. Furthermore, it is expected that the operating speed prediction models can help complement the current design-speed-based guidelines, so more benefits to drivers as real road users, rather than engineers or decision makers, can be achieved.

Estimation of Water Quality Improvement and Reduction of Influent Pollution by Installation of Water Treatment System Filled with Bio-stone Ball (바이오스톤 볼 수처리 시스템에 의한 오염물질 저감 및 저수지의 수질개선효과 산정)

  • Choi, Sunhwa;Kim, Heungseop;Chung, Sewoong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.471-482
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    • 2019
  • Water treatment system filled with Bio-stone Ball (BSB) have been developed for the purification of polluted water in many rivers and lakes. The real-scale plants of BSB water treatment system was constructed for field application test and water purification evaluation in Maewha reservoir. The average water purification efficiencies of BSB watertreatment system shows BOD 70.3% (47.2~97.4%), COD 45.3% (26.1~64.7%), TOC 19.2% (8.5~50.0%), SS 82.8% (73.1~92.7%), Chl-a 80.4% (57.2~91.8%), TN 23.2% (6.4~39.5%), and TP 51.8% (-1.1~80.1%). BSB water treatment system shows very high at 70~80% in the water purification efficiencies of BOD, Chl-a, and SS. The average of pollution loading reduction by installation of BSB treatment system shows 39.2% for COD and 16.8% for TP. The water quality improvement rates (%) of the Maewha reservoir shows TOC 14.5%, COD 14.5%, Chl-a 12.5% and TP 25.1%. The BSB watertreatment system can be applied to many agricultural reservoirs and major rivers to deal with serious water pollution issues.

Estimation of Flood Discharge using Satellite-derived Rainfall in Abroad Watershed - A Case Study of Pasig-Marakina, Phillippines - (위성강우를 이용한 해외 유역 홍수량 추정 - 필리핀 파시그-마라키나강 유역을 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Joo Hun;Choi, Yun Seok;Kim, Kyeong Tak
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.398-398
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    • 2018
  • OECD 발표에 의하면 물산업 관련 인프라 투자 전망은 전세계 GDP 대비 2010~2020년 약 1.01%에서 2020~2030년 약 1.03%로 확대될 전망으로 다른 통신, 전력, 철도 인프라 투자수요보다 많을 것으로 전망하고 있다(파이넨셜 뉴스, 2013.3.21.). 우리나라는 2005년 베트남 홍강종합개발사업을 시작으로 2015년 기준으로 세계 35개국에 진출하고 있다. 그러나 대부분의 물 산업 진출 대상 국가는 미계측 유역이 많고 지상에서 계측된 수문 자료가 부족한 실정이다. Namgung and Lee(2014)에 의하면 네팔의 수력발전소 건설에 관측된 강우량 자료가 없어 발전소 하류 10km 지점의 유하량 자료를 이용하여 자료의 정확도 검증을 대신하여 적용한 바 있다. 이와 같이 계측자료가 없거나 부족한 지역에 대하여 기상 위성을 이용하여 추정된 강수량 자료가 해당 지역의 강수 특성을 파악하는데 중요한 자료로 이용될 수 있다. 글로벌 위성 기반의 강수량 관측에 대한 역사는 1979년에 IR방법에 의해 위성으로부터 강우자료를 유도하는 개념이 도입된 이후 1987년 다중 채널의 마이크로파(MW) 복사계를 이용한 방법, 이후 두 IR과 MW를 혼합한 방법에서, 1997년 TRMM위성의 PR(Precpipitation Radar)의 레이더를 이용하는 방법, 그리고 2014년 GPM 핵심 위성(GPM Core Observatory)에 탑재된 Dual PR에 의한 방법으로 위성강수의 정확도를 매우 높여가고 있다. 본 연구는 KOICA 사업으로 진행중인 필리핀 메트로 마닐라 홍수조기경보 및 모니터링 체계 구축사업 중 파시그-마라키나강(Pasig-Marakina) 유역의 2012년 8월의 홍수사상에 대한 위성강우 및 글로벌 지형자료를 이용하여 홍수 유출량을 추정하는 것으로 목적으로 하고 있다. 유역내 6개 관측소의 일일 강우량 자료와 GPM IMERG 일강우량 자료 상관분석 결과 약 0.623, Bias는 -0.147, RMSE는 15.7정도로 분석되었다. 홍수량 분석은 2012년 8월 홍수가 발생한 시기인 2012년 8월 1일 00(UTC)부터 2012년 8월 16일 00(UTC)까지의 1시간 간격의 위성강우자료와 글로벌 지형자료를 이용하였고, 한국건설기술연구원의 MapWindow 기반 GRM 모형(mwGRM)을 이용하였다. 분석 결과 첨부홍수가 발생한 시기는 8월 7일 18:00(UTC)였고, 첨두 홍수량은 $4,073.9m^3/sec$로 분석되었다. 향후 수위-유량 관계식에 의해 정확도평가를 수행할 계획이다.

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A Study on Improving Estimation of Recurrence Rate of Public Water -Jungnangcheon Watershed- (생활용수 회귀수량 산정방법의 개선연구 -중랑천 유역을 대상으로-)

  • Jung, Chung Gil;Ahn, So Ra;Joh, Hyung Kyung;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.509-509
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    • 2015
  • 물 수요관리측면에 대한 정책을 수립하기 위해서는 현재 또는 장래에 대한 용수수급의 정확한 이해를 필요로 한다. 이를 위해서는 용수 수요량 및 공급량뿐만 아니라 여러 산정요소를 필요로 하는데, 그 중 회귀수량은 물이 이용되고 다시 하천으로 회귀되어 이용될 가능성이 있는 수량으로 정의되며, 용수수급 및 용수절약 측면에서 회귀 수량은 중요한 요소라 할 수 있다. 회귀수량 조사는 유역조사 사업 이래, 10년간 생?공용수를 중심으로 미시적, 거시적으로 조사를 시행하였으나, 측정 자료의 신뢰도, 조사방법 및 지점선정 등의 문제로 인하여 조사 성과의 활용성이 매우 낮은 실정이다. 수자원장기종합계획등에서는 수자원관련 계획 수립시 생?공용수의 회귀율을 65 %로 적용하고 있으나, 이는 1970년대 말의 사회적 여건 및 경제적 상황이 반연된 결과로 현재 상황에 적용되기 곤란하다. 따라서, 현재 실정에 맞는 회귀율 산정은 반드시 필요하게 된다. 본 연구에서는 기존 생활용수 회귀수량 산정 연구 한계를 보완하고 유역조사 시행을 위한 개선된 회귀수량을 산정하고자 한다. 본 연구는 서울시 중랑물재생센터 처리구역을 기반으로 중랑천유역을 시험유역으로 선정하였다. 기존 회귀수량 산정방법을 개선하기 위해 시험유역 회귀수량 산정을 위한 가용 자료 분석 및 용수흐름 네트워크 공간분석을 추가로 진행하였다. 가용자료로 시험 유역내 상수공급자료(정수장 공급량, 상수계통도, 유수 및 누수율), 하수처리자료(하수처리구역도, 하수처리계통도, 유입량 및 방류량) 및 기상자료(기상청 지점 및 AWS 강우자료)를 구축하였고 각각의 상수계통도 및 하수처리계통도로부터 용수 흐름 네트워크망을 구축하였다. 상수공급자료로부터 상수계통도 공급지역을 구분하여 월별 유수율에 따른 월별 실 공급량을 산정하였다. 하수처리자료로부터 시험유역에서의 월별하수처리 유입량 및 방류량을 산정하였다. 최종적으로 회귀율(하수처리 방류량/실 공급량)을 산정한 결과 연평균 회귀율은 각각 93.97 %(2011년), 95.02%(2012년)로 과잉 추정 되었으며 7 ~ 9월의 회귀율은 110 ~ 120 %로 유입량을 초과하였다. 이는, 하수처리로 유입되는 유입량의 하수관거는 합류식으로 구축되어 7 ~ 9월에 많은 양의 강우량이 우수관을 통해 하수처리장으로 이송되어 생활용수 이외에 자연적인 공급량으로 인한 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서, 월별 회귀율 산정을 위해서는 불투수층에서의 면적강우량(mm)을 유입량(m3/s)으로 환산된 값을 고려하여 회귀율을 재산정하였다. 그 결과 연평균 회귀율은 각각 78.27 %(2011년), 77.58 %(2012년)로 나타났다.각각의 월별 회귀율도 매우 유사하게 나타났으며 과거 관용적으로 사용된 65 % 회귀율보다 약 12 ~ 13%로 증가하였으며 이는, 하수처리시설 구축 및 처리효율의 증가와 상수처리시설의 관로시설의 개량으로 인한 유수율 및 누수율 감소로 회귀율이 증가한 것으로 판단된다.

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