• Title/Summary/Keyword: Loss Probability

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The Analysis of Study Trends of Wild ginseng, Bovis Calculus, Ursi Fel, Moschus and The Study on Applied Possibility as Obesity medications (산삼, 우황, 웅담, 사향의 연구 동향 분석 및 비만 치료제로써의 응용 가능성 탐색 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Woo;Song, Yun-Kyung;Lim, Hyung-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Medicine for Obesity Research
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.41-68
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    • 2011
  • Objectives: After organizing segmentations related to obesity from classics and each studies, we would like to examine the value of wild ginseng, bovis calculus, ursi fel and moschus as a obesity medicine. Methods: We found out 4 drugs which are wild ginseng, bovis calculus, ursi fel and moschus from the classics, such as "Shin-Nong-Bon-Cho-Kyung", "Myoung-Eui-Byul-Lok", "Bon-Cho-Gang-Mok", "Bon-Cho-Jong-Shin", "Bon-Cho-Bi-Yo", "Bon-Cho-Gu-Jin" and "Deuk-Bae-Bon-Cho", we searched websites such as RISS, Korean traditional knowledge portal, the society of Korean medicine for obesity research, Korean pharmacopuncture institute, the Korean academy of oriental rehabilitation medicine and Korean acupuncture & moxibustion society as well. Results: 1. We couldn't find the contents related to the efficacy of improving obesity through wild ginseng, bovis calculus, ursi fel and moschus from the classics. 2. Wild ginseng had a study dealing with the efficacy of anticancer, obesity, toxicity, immunity, sulfation, diabetes, plasma proteins, depression, hypertension, endometriosis and hair loss. Especially among 6 studies related to obesity, apart from the study that treated extract of wild ginseng directly to the cell or oral administration to the animals, also have studies that had an efficacy of improving obesity through injecting pharmacopuncture to acupuncture point and vein, etc. 3. Bovis calculus had a study about efficacy related to arthritis, liver, inflammation of cornea, obesity, anticancer, immunity, antacid, heart, lumbar pain, hypertension, toxicity, a digestive organ and sasang constitution, especially in case of obesity, had each studies about oral administration of complex prescription and about cell unit experiment of pharmacopuncture. 4. Ursi fel had a study about efficacy related to liver, arthritis, inflammation of cornea, immunity, obesity, anticancer, antacid, lumbar pain, digestive organ, toxicity, cell protection, skin ailment, etc. Especially in case of obesity, had each studies about oral administration of animal experiment and about cell unit experiment of pharmacopuncture. 5. Moschus had a study about efficacy related to liver, the central nervous system, arthritis, inflammation of cornea, immunity, obesity, anticancer, hypertension, heart, lumbar pain, etc. Especially in case of obesity, had one study about oral administration of complex prescription. Conclusion: Through the result of probability as a obesity medicine of wild ginseng, bovis calculus, ursi fel and moschus, we could identify the possibility of each drug as a obesity medicine. Also in the future, it is considered that studies about one or complex prescription and pharmacopuncture as a obesity medicine will be needed.

Additive hazards models for interval-censored semi-competing risks data with missing intermediate events (결측되었거나 구간중도절단된 중간사건을 가진 준경쟁적위험 자료에 대한 가산위험모형)

  • Kim, Jayoun;Kim, Jinheum
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.539-553
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    • 2017
  • We propose a multi-state model to analyze semi-competing risks data with interval-censored or missing intermediate events. This model is an extension of the three states of the illness-death model: healthy, disease, and dead. The 'diseased' state can be considered as the intermediate event. Two more states are added into the illness-death model to incorporate the missing events, which are caused by a loss of follow-up before the end of a study. One of them is a state of the lost-to-follow-up (LTF), and the other is an unobservable state that represents an intermediate event experienced after the occurrence of LTF. Given covariates, we employ the Lin and Ying additive hazards model with log-normal frailty and construct a conditional likelihood to estimate transition intensities between states in the multi-state model. A marginalization of the full likelihood is completed using adaptive importance sampling, and the optimal solution of the regression parameters is achieved through an iterative quasi-Newton algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to investigate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation method in terms of empirical coverage probability of true regression parameters. Our proposed method is also illustrated with a dataset adapted from Helmer et al. (2001).

On the Study of Developement for Urban Meteorological Service Technology (도시기상서비스 기술 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Young-Jean;Kim, Chang-Mo;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2011
  • Urbanization of the world's population has given rise to more than 450 cities around the world with populations in excess of 1 million (megacity) and more than 25 so-called metacities with populations over 10 million (Brinkhoff, 2010). The United States today has a total resident population of more than 308,500,000 people, with 81 percent residing in cities and suburbs as of mid - 2005 (UN, 2008). Urban meteorology is the study of the physics, dynamics, and chemistry of the interactions of Earth's atmosphere and the urban built environment, and the provision of meteorological services to the populations and institutions of metropolitan areas. While the details of such services are dependent on the location and the synoptic climatology of each city, there are common themes, such as enhancing quality of life and responding to emergencies. Experience elsewhere (e.g., Shanghai, Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, etc.) shows urban meteorological support is a key part of an integrated or multi-hazard warning system that considers the full range of environmental challenges and provides a unified response from municipal leaders. Urban meteorology has come to require much more than observing and forecasting the weather of our cities and metropolitan areas. Forecast improvement as a function of more and better observations of various kinds and as a function of model resolution, larger ensembles, predicted probability distributions; Responses of emergency managers, government officials, and users to improved and probabilistic forecasts; Benefits of improved forecasts in reduction of loss of life, property damage, and other adverse effects. A national initiative to enhance urban meteorological services is a high-priority need for a wide variety of stakeholders, including the general, commerce and industry, and all levels of government. Some of the activities of such an initiative include: conducting basic research and development; prototyping and other activities to enable very--short and short range predictions; supporting and improving productivity and efficiency in commercial and industrial sectors; and urban planning for long term sustainability. In addition urban test-beds are an effective means for developing, testing, and fostering the necessary basic and applied meteorological and socioeconomic research, and transitioning research findings to operations. An extended, multi-year period of continuous effort, punctuated with intensive observing and forecasting periods, is envisioned.

Clinical Finding of MDR Tuberculosis and Frequency of MOTT (다제내성결핵의 임상적 특성과 비결핵항산균증의 빈도)

  • Bae, Mi-Hee;Kim, Hwa-Jung;Kwon, Eun-Soo;Kim, Cheol-Min;Kim, Cheon-Tae;Song, Sun-Dae
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.1123-1142
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    • 1998
  • Background : The frequency of MOTT has risen as the prevalence of tuberculosis has been declining. Our country has been also. The most of MOTT was resistant to the major anti-tuberculous drugs. Method : To compare clinical characteristics and frequencies of MDR tuberculosis with MOTT, the author studied 65 patients showing AFB culture positive with sputum. The data were collected from 176 patients who had been admitted at the National Masan Tuberculosis Hospital from May to June, 1997 to April, 1998. Result : The frequency of MDR tuberculosis was 43.1% and that of MOTT was 9.2%. Among 65 isolated mycobacteria, 3 cases were M. intracellulare. 2 cases were M. fortuitum, and 1 case was unidentified MOTT. The most frequent age group in 65 culture positive patients was 4th decade and the mean age was 44. The mean age was 61 in MOTT and 42 in M. tuberculosis and had significant difference(p<0.01). The numbers with past history of treatment were 2.3 in MDR tuberculosis and 1.7 in non-MDR tuberculosis and had significant difference(p<0.05). At the time of admission, the most frequent regimen for the treatment of MDR tuberculosis was 24 months regimen(85.7%) with the 2nd line anti-tuberculosis drugs. For non-MDR tuberculosis, 9 or 12 months regimen (72.9%) with the 1st line anti-tuberculosis drugs and had significant difference (p<0.01). At the time of admission, the symptom of weight loss was shown in 84.7% of M. tuberculosis and 50.0% in MOTT and there was significant difference(p<0.05) between them. All of the MOTT were identified to be resistant against INH and PAS. Drug resistance rates to INH, OFX(p<0.01) and PAS(p<0.05) in MOTT were higher than in MDR. All of three M. intracellulare strains were resistant to INH, RFP, PAS and OFX. All of two M. fortuitum strains were resistant to most anti-tuberculosis drugs. And the other MOTT was resistant to INH, EMB and PAS. Conclusion : MOTT was more common in elderly patients than M. tuberculosis. MOTT cases should be considered to be the probability of multiple drug resistance and treatment failure during the 1st treatment because they showed more resistance to anti-tuberculosis drugs than M. tuberculosis cases. Therefore, there should be more careful investigations for clinical characteristics, natural history of disease, and efficient management for MOTT.

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Analysis of Correlation between Construction Business and Insolvency of Construction Company (건설경기와 건설업체 부실화 간의 관계성 분석)

  • Seo, Jeong-Bum;Lee, Sang-Hyo;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2013
  • The changes in construction business have impact on overall operation of construction companies. Poor business of construction companies following a s low industrial cycle could have broader implications and influences on the industry. Since a construction project involves various stakeholders including public organizations, financial institutions and households, a downturn in construction industry might lead to significant economic loss. In this regard, it is meaningful to examine the relationship between changes in construction business cycles and insolvency of construction companies. This study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between construction business cycles and how much they affect operation of construction companies. To this end, KMV model was used to estimate probability of bankruptcy, which represents business condition of a construction company. To examine construction business cycles, investment amount for different construction types-residential, non-residential, and construction work-was used as a variable. Based on the investment amount, VECM was applied and the analysis results suggested that construction companies should put priority on diversifying project portfolio. In addition, it was shown that once a construction company becomes unstable in business operation, it is hard to recover even when the market condition turns for the better. This suggests that, to improve business operation of a construction company, internal capacity-building is as important as the market condition and other external circumstances.

Network-adaptive H.264 Video Streaming over IEEE 802.11e (IEEE 802.11e에서 네트워크 적응적인 H.264 비디오 스트리밍)

  • Lee, Sun-Hun;Chung, Kwang-Sue
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.6-16
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    • 2008
  • An instable wireless channel condition causes more packet losses and retransmissions due to interference, fading, station mobility, and so on. Therefore video streaming service over a wireless networks is a challenging task because of the changes in the wireless channel conditions and time-constraints characteristics of the video streaming services. To provide efficient video streaming over a wireless networks, QoS-enhanced MAC protocol, IEEE 802.11e, is standardized recently. Tn this paper, we propose a new network-adaptive H.264 video streaming mechanism in the IEEE 802.11e wireless networks. To improve the quality of video streaming services, video stream has to adapt to the changes in the wireless channel conditions. The wireless channel conditions are estimated by the packet loss probability and informed to the application layer by the cross-layering. According to the wireless channel information, the video streaming application filters out the low-priority data. This adaptation mechanism efficiently uses system resources because it drops the low-priority data in advance. Therefore, our cross-layer design can provide improved video streaming services to the end-user. Through the implementation and performance evaluation, we prove that the proposed mechanism improves the QoS of the video streaming by providing the smoothed playback.

The Predictable Factors of the Postoperative Kyphotic Change of Sagittal Alignment of the Cervical Spine after the Laminoplasty

  • Lee, Jun Seok;Son, Dong Wuk;Lee, Su Hun;Kim, Dong Ha;Lee, Sang Weon;Song, Geun Sung
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.60 no.5
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    • pp.577-583
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    • 2017
  • Objective : Laminoplasty is an effective surgical method for treating cervical degenerative disease. However, postoperative complications such as kyphosis, restriction of neck motion, and instability are often reported. Despite sufficient preoperative lordosis, this procedure often aggravates the lordotic curve of the cervical spine and straightens cervical alignment. Hence, it is important to examine preoperative risk factors associated with postoperative kyphotic alignment changes. Our study aimed to investigate preoperative radiologic parameters associated with kyphotic deformity post laminoplasty. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 49 patients who underwent open door laminoplasty for cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) or ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) at Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital between January 2011 and December 2015. Inclusion criteria were as follows : 1) preoperative diagnosis of OPLL or CSM, 2) no previous history of cervical spinal surgery, cervical trauma, tumor, or infection, 3) minimum of one-year follow-up post laminoplasty with proper radiologic examinations performed in outpatient clinics, and 4) cases showing C7 and T1 vertebral body in the preoperative cervical sagittal plane. The radiologic parameters examined included C2-C7 Cobb angles, T1 slope, C2-C7 sagittal vertical axis (SVA), range of motion (ROM) from C2-C7, segmental instability, and T2 signal change observed on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Clinical factors examined included preoperative modified Japanese Orthopedic Association scores, disease classification, duration of symptoms, and the range of operation levels. Results : Mean preoperative sagittal alignment was $13.01^{\circ}$ lordotic; $6.94^{\circ}$ lordotic postoperatively. Percentage of postoperative kyphosis was 80%. Patients were subdivided into two groups according to postoperative Cobb angle change; a control group (n=22) and kyphotic group (n=27). The kyphotic group consisted of patients with more than $5^{\circ}$ kyphotic angle change postoperatively. There were no differences in age, sex, C2-C7 Cobb angle, T1 slope, C2-C7 SVA, ROM from C2-C7, segmental instability, or T2 signal change. Multiple regression analysis revealed T1 slope had a strong relationship with postoperative cervical kyphosis. Likewise, correlation analysis revealed there was a statistical significance between T1 slope and postoperative Cobb angle change (p=0.035), and that there was a statistically significant relationship between T1 slope and C2-C7 SVA (p=0.001). Patients with higher preoperative T1 slope demonstrated loss of lordotic curvature postoperatively. Conclusion : Laminoplasty has a high probability of aggravating sagittal balance of the cervical spine. T1 slope is a good predictor of postoperative kyphotic changes of the cervical spine. Similarly, T1 slope is strongly correlated with C2-C7 SVA.

Analysis of an M/G/1/K Queueing System with Queue-Length Dependent Service and Arrival Rates (시스템 내 고객 수에 따라 서비스율과 도착율을 조절하는 M/G/1/K 대기행렬의 분석)

  • Choi, Doo-Il;Lim, Dae-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2015
  • We analyze an M/G/1/K queueing system with queue-length dependent service and arrival rates. There are a single server and a buffer with finite capacity K including a customer in service. The customers are served by a first-come-first-service basis. We put two thresholds $L_1$ and $L_2$($${\geq_-}L_1$$ ) on the buffer. If the queue length at the service initiation epoch is less than the threshold $L_1$, the service time of customers follows $S_1$ with a mean of ${\mu}_1$ and the arrival of customers follows a Poisson process with a rate of ${\lambda}_1$. When the queue length at the service initiation epoch is equal to or greater than $L_1$ and less than $L_2$, the service time is changed to $S_2$ with a mean of $${\mu}_2{\geq_-}{\mu}_1$$. The arrival rate is still ${\lambda}_1$. Finally, if the queue length at the service initiation epoch is greater than $L_2$, the arrival rate of customers are also changed to a value of $${\lambda}_2({\leq_-}{\lambda}_1)$$ and the mean of the service times is ${\mu}_2$. By using the embedded Markov chain method, we derive queue length distribution at departure epochs. We also obtain the queue length distribution at an arbitrary time by the supplementary variable method. Finally, performance measures such as loss probability and mean waiting time are presented.

Optimization of Agri-Food Supply Chain in a Sustainable Way Using Simulation Modeling

  • Vostriakova, Viktorija;Kononova, Oleksandra;Kravchenko, Sergey;Ruzhytskyi, Andriy;Sereda, Nataliia
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.245-256
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    • 2021
  • Poor logistical infrastructure and agri-food supply chain management leads to significant food waste in logistic system. The concept of the sustainable value added agri-food chains requires defined approach to the analysis of the existing situation, possible improving strategies and also assessment of these changes impact on further development. The purpose of research is to provide scientific substantiation of theoretical and methodological principles and develop practical recommendations for the improvement of the agri-food logistics distribution system. A case study methodology is used in this article. The research framework is based on 4 steps: Value Stream Mapping (VSM), Gap and Process Analysis, Validation and Improvement Areas Definition and Imitation Modelling. This paper presents the appropriateness of LEAN logistics tools using, in particular, Value Stream Mapping (VSM) for minimizing logistic losses and Simulation Modeling of possible logistics distribution system improvement results. The algorithm of VSM analysis of the agri-food supply chain, which involves its optimization by implementing the principles of sustainable development at each stage, is proposed. The methodical approach to the analysis of possible ways for optimizing the operation of the logistics system of the agri-food distribution is developed. It involves the application of Value Stream Mapping, i.e. designing of stream maps of the creation of the added value in the agri-food supply chain for the current and future state based on the minimization of logistic losses. Simulation modeling of the investment project on time optimization in the agri-food supply chain and economic effect of proposed improvements in logistics product distribution system functioning at the level of the investigated agricultural enterprise has been determined. Improvement of logistics planning and coordination of operations in the supply chain and the innovative pre-cooling system proposed to be introduced have a 3-year payback period and almost 75-80% probability. Based on the conducted VSM analysis of losses in the agri-food supply chain, there have been determined the main points, where it is advisable to conduct optimization changes for the achievement of positive results and the significant economic effect from the proposed measures has been confirmed. In further studies, it is recommended to focus on identifying the synergistic effect of the agri-food supply chain optimization on the basis of sustainable development.

Landslide Susceptibility Prediction using Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence and Artificial Neural Network Models (Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence 및 Artificial Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 공간 취약성 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Saro;Oh, Hyun-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.299-316
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze landslide susceptibility in the Pyeongchang area using Weight of Evidence (WOE) and Evidential Belief Function (EBF) as probability models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a machine learning model in a geographic information system (GIS). This study examined the widespread shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006, which caused serious property damage and significant loss of life. For the landslide susceptibility mapping, 3,955 landslide occurrences were detected using aerial photographs, and environmental spatial data such as terrain, geology, soil, forest, and land use were collected and constructed in a spatial database. Seventeen factors that could affect landsliding were extracted from the spatial database. All landslides were randomly separated into two datasets, a training set (50%) and validation set (50%), to establish and validate the EBF, WOE, and ANN models. According to the validation results of the area under the curve (AUC) method, the accuracy was 74.73%, 75.03%, and 70.87% for WOE, EBF, and ANN, respectively. The EBF model had the highest accuracy. However, all models had predictive accuracy exceeding 70%, the level that is effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. These models can be applied to predict landslide susceptibility in an area where landslides have not occurred previously based on the relationships between landslide and environmental factors. This susceptibility map can help reduce landslide risk, provide guidance for policy and land use development, and save time and expense for landslide hazard prevention. In the future, more generalized models should be developed by applying landslide susceptibility mapping in various areas.