• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term rainfall-runoff model

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Hourly Water Level Simulation in Tancheon River Using an LSTM (LSTM을 이용한 탄천에서의 시간별 하천수위 모의)

  • Park, Chang Eon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.66 no.4
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2024
  • This study was conducted on how to simulate runoff, which was done using existing physical models, using an LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model based on deep learning. Tancheon, the first tributary of the Han River, was selected as the target area for the model application. To apply the model, one water level observatory and four rainfall observatories were selected, and hourly data from 2020 to 2023 were collected to apply the model. River water level of the outlet of the Tancheon basin was simulated by inputting precipitation data from four rainfall observation stations in the basin and average preceding 72-hour precipitation data for each hour. As a result of water level simulation using 2021 to 2023 data for learning and testing with 2020 data, it was confirmed that reliable simulation results were produced through appropriate learning steps, reaching a certain mean absolute error in a short period time. Despite the short data period, it was found that the mean absolute percentage error was 0.5544~0.6226%, showing an accuracy of over 99.4%. As a result of comparing the simulated and observed values of the rapidly changing river water level during a specific heavy rain period, the coefficient of determination was found to be 0.9754 and 0.9884. It was determined that the performance of LSTM, which aims to simulate river water levels, could be improved by including preceding precipitation in the input data and using precipitation data from various rainfall observation stations within the basin.

Characteristic Analysis of the Coefficient of Initial Abstraction and Development of its Formular in the Rural Watersheds - for the Small-Medium Watersheds in the Geum and Sapkyo River - (농촌유역에서의 초기강우손실 특성분석과 계수 산정식 개발 - 금강.삽교천 중소유역을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Tai-Cheol;Lee, Jeong-Seon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.3-12
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    • 2008
  • It is important to estimate accurate effective rainfall to analyse flood flow and long-term runoff for the rational planning, design, and management of water resource. The initial abstraction is also important to estimate effective rainfall. The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) has developed a procedure and it has been most commonly applied to estimate effective rainfall. But the SCS method still has weak points, because of unnatural assumptions such as antecedent moisture conditions and initial abstraction. The coefficient of initial abstraction(K) is depending on the soil moisture condition and antecedent rainfall. The maximum storage capacity of Umax which is calibrated by stream flow data in the proposed watershed was derived from the DAWAST(DAily WAtershed STreamflow) model. The values of K obtained from 69 storm events at the five watersheds are ranging from 0.133 to 0.365 and its mean value is 0.207. Effective rainfall could be estimated more reasonably by introducing new concept of initial abstraction. The equation of $K=0.076Sa^{0.255}$ was recommended instead of 0.2 and it could be applicable to the small-medium rural watersheds.

Assessment of streamflow variation considering long-term land-use change in a watershed

  • Noh, Joonwoo;Kim, Yeonsu;Yu, Wansik;Yu, Jisoo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.629-642
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    • 2021
  • Land-use change has an important role in the hydrologic characteristics of watersheds because it alters various hydrologic components such as interception, infiltration, and evapotranspiration. For example, rapid urbanization in a watershed reduces infiltration rates and increases peak flow which lead to changes in the hydrologic responses. In this study, a physical hydrologic model the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was used to assess long-term continuous daily streamflow corresponding to land-use changes that occurred in the Naesungchun river watershed. For a 30-year model simulation, 3 different land-use maps of the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s were used to identify the impacts of the land-use changes. Using SWAT-CUP (calibration and uncertainty program), an automated parameter calibration tool, 23 parameters were selected, optimized and compared with the daily streamflow data observed at the upstream, midstream and downstream locations of the watershed. The statistical indexes used for the model calibration and validation show that the model performance is improved at the downstream location of the Naesungchun river. The simulated streamflow in the mainstream considering land-use change increases up to -2 - 30 cm compared with the results simulated with the single land-use map. However, the difference was not significant in the tributaries with or without the impact of land-use change.

The NPS Analysis and CSO Management Based on SWMM for Oncheon Basin (SWMM 모형을 이용한 비점오염 분석 및 CSO 관리방안 연구 - 부산시 온천천 유역 대상 -)

  • Shin, Hyun Suk;Son, Jeong Hwa;Jang, Jong Kyung;Shon, Tae Seok;Kang, Dookee;Cho, Dukjoon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.268-280
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    • 2009
  • Oncheon basin which are located in Busan is divided into 43 basin on the basis of main pipe, constructed with Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Occurrence situation for Outflow and pollutant loads by long-term continuous rainfall is examined for treatment district and river analysis point of Oncheon basin and a reduction vs effectiveness table for effective CSOs managements is made for each of treatment districts according to each of managements. In case that treatment equipment is located at the discharge point of CSO, treatment efficiency is analysed. It is supposed that treatment equipment have an efficiency on the basis of a concentration and runoff discharge over a critical flow is discharged with it untreated and treating runoff discharge with treatment equipment at each of runoff discharge points and treating it gathered at sewage treatment plant (STP) through trunk sewer is compared for a relative treatment efficiency.

Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics on Impervious Cover Changes using SWMM in an Urbanized Watershed (SWMM을 이용한 도시화유역 불투수율 변화에 따른 강우유출특성 분석)

  • Oh, Dong Geun;Chung, Se Woong;Ryu, In Gu;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2010
  • The increase of impervious cover (IC) in a watershed is known as an important factor causing alteration of water cycle, deterioration of water quality and biological communities of urban streams. The study objective was to assess the impact of IC changes on the surface runoff characteristics of Kap Stream basin located in Geum river basin (Korea) using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). SWMM was calibrated and verified using the flow data observed at outlet of the watershed with 8 days interval in 2007 and 2008. According to the analysis of Landsat satellite imagery data every 5 years from 1975 to 2000, the IC of the watershed has linearly increased from 4.9% to 10.5% during last 25 years. The validated model was applied to simulate the runoff flow rates from the watershed with different IC rates every five years using the climate forcing data of 2007 and 2008. The simulation results indicated that the increase of IC area in the watershed has resulted in the increase of peak runoff and reduction of travel time during flood events. The flood flow ($Q_{95}$) and normal flow ($Q_{180}$) rates of Kap Stream increased with the IC rate. However, the low flow ($Q_{275}$) and drought flow ($Q_{355}$) rates showed no significant difference. Thus the subsurface flow simulation algorithm of the model needs to be revisited for better assessment of the impact of impervious cover on the long-term runoff process.

Development and Application of ROADMOD for Analysis of Non-point Source Pollutions from Road: Analysis of Removal Efficiency of Sediment in Road by Sweeping (도로 비점오염 해석을 위한 ROADMOD개발 및 적용: 도로청소 효과 분석)

  • Kang, Heeman;Jeon, Ji-Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2021
  • In this study, an Excel-based model (ROADMOD) was developed to estimate pollutant loading from the road and evaluate BMPs. ROADMOD employs the Chezy-Manning equation and empirical expression for estimating surface runoff, and power function for pollutant buildup, and exponential function for pollutant washoff in SWMM. The results of model calibration for buildup and washoff using observed data revealed a good match between the simulation results and the observed data. The long-term surface runoff and sediment simulated by ROADMOD demonstrated a good match with those by SWMM with 2 ~ 14% of relative error. The shorter sweeping interval (within 8 days) remarkably decreased sediment loads from the road. It was found that the effect of reducing sediment loads from the road was greatly affected not only by the sweeping interval but also by sweeping on the day before a rainfall event. The 48% of removal efficiency of sediment loads from the road was achieved with 26 times of road sweeping per year when sweeping was performed on the day before the rainfall event. A 4-day sweeping interval showed similar removal efficiency (48%) with 96 times of sweeping per year. It is considered that the road sweeping on the day before a rainfall event could maximize the effect of reducing the non-point source pollution from the road with minimization of the number of road sweeping. So, the road sweeping on the day before a rainfall event can be considered as one of the useful and best management practices (BMPs) on road.

Constructed Wetland Design Method to Treat Agricultural Drainage from Tidal Reclaimed Paddy Areas (간척지 논 농업배수 처리에 적합한 인공습지 설계 기법)

  • Jang, Jeong-Ryeol;Shin, Yu-Ri;Jung, Ji-Yeon;Choi, Kang-Won
    • KCID journal
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.4-17
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    • 2011
  • The standard design methodology was suggested to construct wetland system for reducing non-point source pollution from Saemangeum reclaimed paddy land. To set for the design flow and concentrations, runoff and water quality survey were conducted during the irrigation period in 2008 at Gyehwa reclaimed paddy land located at near Saemangeum lake. It is rational that 1ha is the optimum constructed wetland size. To meet this size, the moderate drainage area of reclaimed paddy field was 50ha under the conditions that rainfall is 30mm, average runoff coefficient is 0.83, and runoff capture ratio is 0.6. At these condition, the runoff volume from 50ha was 10,520 $m^3/d$ including base flow during irrigation period. To select the optimum wetland system, several case studies were conducted by focusing on the tidal reclaimed land areas having wetland systems in Seokmun. Pond-Wetland system was selected as the standard model because of showing the highest reduction efficiency. Single variable regression equation were delivered to estimate effluent water concentrations from the designed wetland by using long-term monitoring data from the Seokmun experiment site. The effluent concentration from the designed wetland using these equation were showed moderately range.

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Simulation of Soil Erosion due to Snow Melt at Alpine Agricultural Lands (고령지 농경지에서 융설에 의한 토양유실량 모의)

  • Heo, Sung-Gu;Lim, Kyoung-Jae;Kim, Ki-Sung;Myung, SaGong;An, Jae-Hun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.241-246
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    • 2005
  • Doam watershed is located at alpine areas in the Kangwon province. The annual average precipitation, including snow accumulation during the winter, at the Doam watershed is significantly higher than other areas. Thus, pollutant laden runoff and sediment discharge from the alpine agricultural fields are causing water quality degradation at the Doam watershed. To estimate soil erosion from the agricultural fields, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has been widely used because of its simplicity to use. The USLE rainfall erosivity (R) factor is responsible for impacts of rainfall on soil erosion. Thus, use of constant R factor for the Doam watershed cannot reflect variations in precipitation patterns, consequently soil erosion estimation. In the early spring at the Doam watershed, the stream flow increases because of snow melt, which results in erosion of loosened soil experiencing freezing and thaw during the winter. However, the USLE model cannot consider the impacts on soil erosion of freezing and thaw of the soil. Also, it cannot simulate temporal changes in USLE input parameters. Thus, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was investigated for its applicability to estimate soil erosion at the Doam watershed, instead of the widely used USLE model. The SWAT hydrology and erosion/sediment components were validated after calibration of the hydrologic component. The $R^2$ and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient values are higher enough, thus it was found the SWAT model can be efficiently used to simulate hydrology and sediment yield at the Doam watershed. The effects of snow melt on SWAT estimated stream flow and sediment were investigated using long-term precipitation and temperature data at the Doam watershed. It was found significant amount of flow and sediment in the spring are contributed by melting snow accumulated during the winter. Thus, it is recommend that the SWAT model capable of simulating snow melt and long-term weather data needs to be used in estimating soil erosion at alpine agricultural land instead of the USLE model for successful soil erosion management at the Doam watershed.

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Estimation of ESP Probability considering Weather Outlook (기상예보를 고려한 ESP 유출 확률 산정)

  • Ahn, Jung Min;Lee, Sang Jin;Kim, Jeong Kon;Kim, Joo Cheol;Maeng, Seung Jin;Woo, Dong Hyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.264-272
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study was to develop a model for predicting long-term runoff in a basin using the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) technique and review its reliability. To achieve the objective, this study improved not only the ESP technique based on the ensemble scenario analysis of historical rainfall data but also conventional ESP techniques used in conjunction with qualitative climate forecasting information, and analyzed and assessed their improvement effects. The model was applied to the Geum River basin. To undertake runoff forecasting, this study tried three cases (case 1: Climate Outlook + ESP, case 2: ESP probability through monthly measured discharge, case 3: Season ESP probability of case 2) according to techniques used to calculate ESP probabilities. As a result, the mean absolute error of runoff forecasts for case 1 proposed by this study was calculated as 295.8 MCM. This suggests that case 1 showed higher reliability in runoff forecasting than case 2 (324 MCM) and case 3 (473.1 MCM). In a discrepancy-ratio accuracy analysis, the Climate Outlook + ESP technique displayed 50.0%. This suggests that runoff forecasting using the Climate Outlook +ESP technique with the lowest absolute error was more reliable than other two cases.

Modification of Spatial Grid Based Distributed Model Considering River Basin Characteristics (유역특성을 반영한 공간격자기반의 분포형모형 개선)

  • Park, Jin Hyeog;Hur, Young Teck
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.3D
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    • pp.431-436
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    • 2008
  • Recently, the rapid development of GIS technology has made it possible to handle a various data associated with spatially hydrological parameters with their attribute information. Therefore, there has been a shift in focus from lumped runoff models to distributed runoff models, as the latter can consider temporal and spatial variations of discharge. In this research, a distributed rainfall-runoff model based on physical kinematic wave for analysis of surface and river flow was used to simulate temporal and spatial distribution of long-term discharge. The snowfall and melting process model based on Hydro-BEAM was developed, and various hydrological parameters for input data of the model was extracted from basic GIS data such as DEM, land cover and soil map. The developed model was applied for the Shonai River basin(532) in Japan, which has sufficient meteorological and hydrological data, and displayed precise runoff results to be compared to the hydrograph.