• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term rainfall-runoff model

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Regionalization of rainfall-runoff model parameters based on the correlation of regional characteristic factors (지역특성인자의 상호연관성을 고려한 강우-유출모형 매개변수 지역화)

  • Kim, Jin-Guk;Sumyia, Uranchimeg;Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.11
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    • pp.955-968
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    • 2021
  • A water resource plan is routinely based on a natural flow and can be estimated using observed streamflow data or a long-term continuous rainfall-runoff model. However, the watershed with the natural flow is very limited to the upstream area of the dam. In particular, for the ungauged watershed, a rainfall-runoff model is established for the gauged watershed, and the model is then applied to the ungauged watershed by transferring the associated parameters. In this study, the GR4J rainfall-runoff model is mainly used to regionalize the parameters that are estimated from the 14 dam watershed via an optimization process. In terms of optimizing the parameters, the Bayesian approach was applied to consider the uncertainty of parameters quantitatively, and a number of parameter samples obtained from the posterior distribution were used for the regionalization. Here, the relationship between the estimated parameters and the topographical factors was first identified, and the dependencies between them are effectively modeled by a Copula function approach to obtain the regionalized parameters. The predicted streamflow with the use of regionalized parameters showed a good agreement with that of the observed with a correlation of about 0.8. It was found that the proposed regionalized framework is able to effectively simulate streamflow for the ungauged watersheds by the use of the regionalized parameters, along with the associated uncertainty, informed by the basin characteristics.

Verification of Stream Flow by Rainfall-Runoff Simulation and Hydrologic Analysis in Daecheong Basin (수문 특성 분석에 의한 대청유역 주요지점 유출모의 검증)

  • Lee, Sang-Jin;Kim, Joo-Cheol;Noh, Joon-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.183-189
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    • 2010
  • In this study long term rainfall-runoff model, developed based on SSARR, was applied to Geum river basin and its simulation results of major control points were compared with the corresponding observed channel discharges. The validities of the simulation results were examined with re-measured discharges of those control points. From the above procedure the points showing the unreliable results were found out and its principal causes are analyzed through hydrological inspection of runoff characteristics of their circumstances. Finally the simulation results were modified by the consideration of the effects by small-scale hydraulic structures which could directly affect the channel discharges. As a result the annual runoff simulations of two major points in Geum river basin, Yongdam and Daecheong dam sites, work well. However the low flow simulation of the point located between them, Sutong station, showed more or less the unreliable result. Its causes are considered by means of the hydraulic/hydrological inspection of the corresponding point.

Regionalization of CN values at Imha Watershed with SCE-UA (최적화 기법을 이용한 임하호유역 대표 CN값 추정)

  • Jeon, Ji-Hong;Kim, Tae-Dong;Choi, Dong-Hyuk
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2011
  • Curve Numbers (CN) for the combination of land use and hydrologic soil group were regionalized at Imha Watershed using Long-term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) coupled with SCE-UA. The L-THIA was calibrated during 1991-2000 and validated during 2001-2007 using monthly observed direct runoff data. The Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients for calibration and validation were 0.91 and 0.93, respectively, and showed high model efficiency. Based on the criteria of model calibration, both calibration and validation represented 'very good' fit with observe data. The spatial distribution of direct surface runoff by L-THIA represented runoff from Thiessen pologen at Subi and Sukbo rain gage station much higher than other area due to the combination of poor hydrologic condition (hydrologic soil C and D group) and locality heavy rainfall. As a results of hydrologic condition and treatment for land use type based on calibrated CNs, forest is recommended to be hydrologically modelled dived into deciduous, coniferous, and mixed forest due to the hydrological difference. The CNs for forest and upland showed the poor hydrologic condition. The steep slope of forest and alpine agricultural field make high runoff rate which is the poor hydrologic condition because CN method can not consider field slope. L-THIA linded with SCE-UA could generated a regionalized CNs for land use type with minimized time and effort, and maximized model's accuracy.

Analysis of the Characteristics of NPS Runoff and Application of L-THIA model at Upper Daecheong Reservoir (대청호 상류 유역의 비점오염원 유출특성 분석 및 L-THIA 모형 적용성 평가)

  • Shin, Min-Hwan;Lee, Jae-An;Cheon, Se-Uk;Lee, Yeoul-Jae;Lim, Kyoung-Jae;Choi, Joong-Dae
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2010
  • Generation and transportation of runoff and pollutant loads within watershed generated eutrophication at Daecheong reservoir. To improve water quality at Daecheong reservoir, the best management practices should be developed and applied at upper watersheds for water quality improvement at downstream areas. In this study, two small watersheds of upper Daecheong reservoir were selected. The Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) model has been widely used for the estimation of the direct runoff worldwide. To apply the L-THIA ArcView GIS model was evaluated for direct runoff and water quality estimation at small watershed. And the Web-based Hydrograph Analysis Tool (WHAT) was used for direct runoff separating from total flow. As a result, the $R^2$ (Coefficient of determination) value and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient value for direct runoff comparison at An-nae watershed were 0.81 and 0.71, respectively. And the $R^2$ value and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient value at Wol-oe were 0.95 and 0.93. The $R^2$ value of BOD, TOC, T-N and T-P at An-nae watershed were BOD 0.94, TOC 0.81, T-N 0.94 and T-P 0.89. And the $R^2$ value of BOD, TOC, T-N and T-P at Wol-oe watershed were BOD 0.80, TOC 0.93, T-N 0.86 and T-P 0.65. The result that estimated pollutant loadings using the L-THIA ArcView GIS model reflected well the measured pollutant loadings except for T-P in Wol-oe watershed. With L-THIA ArcView GIS model, the direct runoff and non-point pollutant (NPS) loadings in the watershed could be analyzed through simple input data such as daily rainfall, land uses, and hydrologic soil group.

Estimation of Storage Capacity for CSOs Storage System in Urban Area (도시유역 CSOs 처리를 위한 저류형시스템 설계용량 산정)

  • Jo, Deok Jun;Lee, Jung Ho;Kim, Myoung Su;Kim, Joong Hoon;Park, Moo Jong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.490-497
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    • 2007
  • A Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) are themselves a significant source of water pollution. Therefore, the control of urban drainage for CSOs reduction and receiving water quality protection is needed. Examples in combined sewer systems include downstream storage facilities that detain runoff during periods of high flow and allow the detained water to be conveyed by an interceptor sewer to a centralized treatment plant during periods of low flow. The design of such facilities as stormwater detention storage is highly dependant on the temporal variability of storage capacity available (which is influenced by the duration of interevent dry periods) as well as the infiltration capacity of soil and recovery of depression storage. As a result, a continuous approach is required to adequately size such facilities. This study for the continuous long-term analysis of urban drainage system used analytical probabilistic model based on derived probability distribution theory. As an alternative to the modeling of urban drainage system for planning or screening level analysis of runoff control alternatives, this model have evolved that offer much ease and flexibility in terms of computation while considering long-term meteorology. This study presented rainfall and runoff characteristics of the subject area using analytical probabilistic model. This study presented the average annual COSs and number of COSs when the interceptor capacity is in the range $3{\times}DWF$ (dry weather flow). Also, calculated the average annual mass of pollutant lost in CSOs using Event Mean Concentration. Finally, this study presented a decision of storage volume for CSOs reduction and water quality protection.

Development of a Cell-based Long-term Hydrologic Model Using Geographic Information System(I) -Cell-based Long-term Hydrologic Modeling- (지리정보시스템을 이용한 장기유출모형의 개발(I) -장기유출의 격자 모형화-)

  • 최진용;정하우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.64-74
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    • 1997
  • A CELTHYM(CEll-based Long-term HYdrologic Model), a pre-processor and a post-processor that can be integrated with geographic information system(GIS) were developed to predict the stream flow from the small agricultural watershed on the daily basis. The CELTHYM calculates the direct runoff from a grid using SCS curve number method and then sum up all of cells with respect to a sub-catchment area belonged to a stream grid and integrated to an outlet. Base flow of a watershed outlet was computed by integrating of the base flow of each stream grid that was averaged the sub-catchment deep-percolation and calculated with the release rate. Two kind of water budget equation were used to compute the water balance in a grid that was classified into not paddy field and paddy field. One of the two equation is a soil water balance equation to account the soil moisture of the upland, forest and excluding paddy field grid. The other is a paddy water balance equation for the paddy field, calculating the ponding depth, the effective rainfall, the deep percolation and the evapotranspiration.

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Determination of Design Capacity for NPS Pollutant Treatment Facilities by Long-term Simulation in Urban Areas (장기모의를 통한 도시유역 비점오염원 처리장치 용량 산정)

  • Joo, Jingul;Yoo, Doguen;Kim, Joonghoon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.841-847
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    • 2011
  • In this study, a method to determine the design capacities of nonpoint source (NPS) pollutant treatment facilities in urban areas was suggested. A facility capacity to treat 80 percent of total SS discharge was estimated by 2-year rainfall - runoff - build-up and wash-off simulation at Goonja drainage district in Seoul. For wash-off simulation, four wash-off models (EMC, RC, EXP, and Joo model) were used. As the results, 80 percent of total SS discharge could be treated with only 7.7~31.4% facility capacity of peak flow. The suggested method and results will provide a guideline to determine design capacities of NPS pollutant treatment facility in urban areas.

Parameter optimization of agricultural reservoir long-term runoff model based on historical data (실측자료기반 농업용 저수지 장기유출모형 매개변수 최적화)

  • Hong, Junhyuk;Choi, Youngje;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.93-104
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    • 2021
  • Due to climate change the sustainable water resources management of agricultural reservoirs, the largest number of reservoirs in Korea, has become important. However, the DIROM, rainfall-runoff model for calculating agricultural reservoir inflow, has used regression equation developed in the 1980s. This study has optimized the parameters of the DIROM using the genetic algorithm (GA) based on historical inflow data for some agricultural reservoirs that recently begun to observe inflow data. The result showed that the error between the historical inflow and simulated inflow using the optimal parameters was decreased by about 80% compared with the annual inflow with the existing parameters. The correlation coefficient and root mean square error with the historical inflow increased to 0.64 and decreased to 28.2 × 103 ㎥, respectively. As a result, if the DIROM uses the optimal parameters based on the historical inflow of agricultural reservoirs, it will be possible to calculate the long-term reservoir inflow with high accuracy. This study will contribute to future research using the historical inflow of agricultural reservoirs and improvement of the rainfall-runoff model parameters. Furthermore, the reliable long-term inflow data will support for sustainable reservoir management and agricultural water supply.

The Application of Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for Modeling the Hourly Runoff in the Gapcheon Watershed (적응형 네트워크 기반 퍼지추론 시스템을 적용한 갑천유역의 홍수유출 모델링)

  • Kim, Ho Jun;Chung, Gunhui;Lee, Do-Hun;Lee, Eun Tae
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.5B
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    • pp.405-414
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    • 2011
  • The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) which had a success for time series prediction and system control was applied for modeling the hourly runoff in the Gapcheon watershed. The ANFIS used the antecedent rainfall and runoff as the input. The ANFIS was trained by varying the various simulation factors such as mean areal rainfall estimation, the number of input variables, the type of membership function and the number of membership function. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean peak runoff error (PE), and mean peak time error (TE) were used for validating the ANFIS simulation. The ANFIS predicted runoff was in good agreement with the measured runoff and the applicability of ANFIS for modelling the hourly runoff appeared to be good. The forecasting ability of ANFIS up to the maximum 8 lead hour was investigated by applying the different input structure to ANFIS model. The accuracy of ANFIS for predicting the hourly runoff was reduced as the forecasting lead hours increased. The long-term predictability of ANFIS for forecasting the hourly runoff at longer lead hours appeared to be limited. The ANFIS might be useful for modeling the hourly runoff and has an advantage over the physically based models because the model construction of ANFIS based on only input and output data is relatively simple.

The Potential Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in Rivers Basin of Korea Using Rainfall Elasticity

  • Kim, Byung Sik;Hong, Seung Jin;Lee, Hyun Dong
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, the rainfall elasticity of streamflow was estimated to quantify the effects of climate change on 5 river basins. Rainfall elasticity denotes the sensitivity of annual streamflow for the variations of potential annual rainfall. This is a simple, useful method that evaluates how the balance of a water cycle on river basins changes due to long-term climate change and offers information to manage water resources and environment systems. The elasticity method was first used by Schaake in 1990 and is commonly used in the United States and Australia. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP, semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes) was used to simulate the variations of area streamflow, and potential evapotranspiration. A nonparametric method was then used to estimate the rainfall elasticity on five river basins of Korea. In addition, the A2 (SRES IPCC AR4, Special Report on Emission Scenarios IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) climate change scenario and stochastic downscaling technique were used to create a high-resolution weather change scenario in river basins, and the effects of climate change on the rainfall elasticity of each basin were then analyzed.