• 상하수도학회지
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.187-196
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• 2006

Forecasting the long-term water demand is important in the plan of water supply system because the location and capacity of water facilities are decided according to it. To forecast the long-term water demand, the existing method based on lpcd and population has been usually used. But, these days the trend among the variation of water demand has been disappeared, so expressing other variation of it is needed to forecast correct water demand. To accomplish it, we introduced the System Dynamics method to consider total connections of water demand factor. Firstly, the factors connected with water demand were divided into three sectors(water demand, industry, and population sectors), and the connections of factors were set with multiple regression model. And it was compared to existing method. The results are as followings. The correlation efficients are 0.330 in existing model and 0.960 in SD model and MAE are 3.96% in existing model and 1.68% in SD model. So, it is proved that SD model is superior to the existing model. To forecast the long-term water demand, scenarios were made with variations of employment condition, economic condition and consumer price indexes and forecasted water demands in 2012. After all scenarios were performed, the results showed that it was not needed to increase the water supply ability in Seoul.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.121-132
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• 2006

A container terminal should concentrate on efficient terminal operation in the long view and analyze an effect through introduction of hi-technology, automated equipments and intelligent information system, when they want to improve their reliability and competitive power in intense global competition. To do this, first this study finds out factors which affect competitive power of a container terminal, and relation between them. And then we used System Dynamics method to analyze an effect according to a value fluctuation of the factors in the long term.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.49-62
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• 2023

Background: Over the past three decades, gradual eustatic sea-level rise has been considered a primary exogenous factor in the increased frequency of flooding and biological changes in several salt marshes. Under this paradigm, the potential importance of short-term events, such as ocean storminess, in coastal hydrology and ecology is underrepresented in the literature. In this study, a simulation was developed to evaluate the influence of wind waves driven by atmospheric oscillations on sedimentary and vegetation dynamics at the Skallingen salt marsh in southwestern Denmark. The model was built based on long-term data of mean sea level, sediment accretion, and plant species composition collected at the Skallingen salt marsh from 1933-2006. In the model, the submergence frequency (number yr^-1) was estimated as a combined function of wind-driven high water level (HWL) events (> 80 cm Danish Ordnance Datum) affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and changes in surface elevation (cm yr^-1). Vegetation dynamics were represented as transitions between successional stages controlled by flooding effects. Two types of simulations were performed: (1) baseline modeling, which assumed no effect of wind-driven sea-level change, and (2) experimental modeling, which considered both normal tidal activity and wind-driven sea-level change. Results: Experimental modeling successfully represented the patterns of vegetation change observed in the field. It realistically simulated a retarded or retrogressive successional state dominated by early- to mid-successional species, despite a continuous increase in surface elevation at Skallingen. This situation is believed to be caused by an increase in extreme HWL events that cannot occur without meteorological ocean storms. In contrast, baseline modeling showed progressive succession towards the predominance of late-successional species, which was not the then-current state in the marsh. Conclusions: These findings support the hypothesis that variations in the NAO index toward its positive phase have increased storminess and wind tides on the North Sea surface (especially since the 1980s). This led to an increased frequency and duration of submergence and delayed ecological succession. Researchers should therefore employ a multitemporal perspective, recognizing the importance of short-term sea-level changes nested within long-term gradual trends.

• 감성과학
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.37-42
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• 1999

Long-term exposure to loud noise affects performance since it changes arousal level, distracts attention, and also is able to evoke subjective stress accompanied by negative emotional states. The purpose of the study was to analyze dynamics of subjective and physiological variables during a relatively long-lasting (30 min) exposure to white noise (85 dB[A]). Physiological signals were recorded on 15 college students during 30 min of intense auditory stimulation. Autonomic variables, namely skin conductance level , non-specific SCR number, inter-best intervals in ECG, heart rate variability index (HF/LF ratio of HRV), skin temperature, as well as respiration rate were analyzed on 5 min epoch basis. Psychological assessment (subjective rating of stress level) was also repeated every 5 min. Statistical analysis was employed to trace the time course of the dynamics of subjective and autonomic physiological variables and their relationships. Results showed that the intense noise evoked subjective stress as well as associated autonomic nervous system responses. However it was shown that physiological variables endured specific changes in the process of exposure to the loud white noise. Discussed were probable psychophysiological mechanisms mediating reactivity to long-term auditory stimulation of high intensity, namely short-term activation, followed by transient adaptation (with relatively stable autonomic balance) and then a subsequent wave of arousal due to tonic sympathetic dominance.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.75-82
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• 2007

When one forecasts urban water demand in a long-term, multivariate model can give more benefits than per capita requirement model. However, the former has shortcomings in that statistically high explanatory power cannot be obtained well, and change in customer behavior cannot be considered. If the past water consumption effects the future water demand, dynamic model may describe real water consumption data better than static model, i.e. the existing multivariate model. On these grounds, this study built dynamic model using system dynamics. From a case study in Seoul and Busan city, dynamic model was expected to forecast water demand more descriptively and reliably.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.81-96
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• 2017

Forecasting long-term mobile service demand is inevitable to establish an effective frequency management policy despite the lack of reliability of forecast results. The statistical forecasting method has limitations in analyzing how the forecasting result changes when the scenario for various drivers such as consumer usage pattern or market structure for mobile communication service is changed. In this study, we propose a dynamic model of the mobile communication service market using system dynamics technique and forecast the future demand for long-term mobile communication subscriber based on the dynamic model, and also experiment on the change pattern of subscriber demand under various scenarios.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.195-204
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• 2014

The transition from fossil to renewable energy is inevitable due to fossil depletion. So, Renewable energy is very important for energy security and economic growth although it's R&D is long-term and high risky project. We propose new valuation method which combined system dynamics and compound real option method for long-term and high risk projects such as renewable energy. This method can show dynamic valuation results for the complex causal interaction and be easy for Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate volatility. And it can reflect the value of flexible decision for uncertainty. We applied the empirical analysis for Korea's photovoltaic industry by using this method. As results by empirical analysis, photovoltaic's R&D has high valuation using this method compared by traditional valuation methods such as DCF.

• 경영과학
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.27-43
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• 2008

This study analyzes the changes of Gyeongju local society because of setting up low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site by using urban dynamics model. Specifically, after examining 'Gyeongju Long-Term Development Plan' announced in 2007, I establish the number of industries, population, gross local product, residents' income, and the long term employment condition as essential change-causing factors in Gyeongju local society based on the Big3 government project, and forecast it by using 'Gyeongju long-Term Development Plan' and all sorts of statistical data. In this stage, I assume 3 scenarios(basic, optimistic, and pessimistic view) to estimate the changes of local society more exquisitely, and scenarios are composed through mediation about variables of a growth rate and an inflow or outflow rate. The result shows that Gyeonaju local society would have growing changes by 2020. The essential change-causing factors are as follows. The case of population is estimated that it starts going down at the level of approximately 270 thousand by 2009, starts going up continuously after 2009, the year of completion of low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site, and increases from the level of about 300 thousand as minimum to 340 thousand as maximum in 2020. The estimates of other cases are made that the number of Industries has about 10 thousand increases, gross local product has almost 6 trillion increases, nominal gross national income doubles, as well as residences have approximately 280 thousand increases, and also made that employment condition also improves continuously, and diffusion ratio of house starts going up but the amount of supplies is a little bit insufficient in the long view.

• 노동경제논집
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.51-81
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• 2012

본 연구는 저소득층의 4년제 대학진학을 제약하는 두 가지 요인, 즉 등록금 납부여력 부족과 불우한 성장환경의 누적적 영향에 따른 학업능력 부족 중 무엇의 영향이 더 큰지 살펴보았다. 희귀분석 결과, 중학교 시기의 학업성취와 몇몇 가정배경 변수들은 유의한 반면, 이들 변인 통제 시 대학진학 시기의 가구소득은 4년제 대학 진학에 거의 영향을 주지 못했다. 또한 Carneiro and Heckman(2003)이 미국 고등교육 격차 원인규명을 위해 수행한 분석을 한국 상황에 적용해 본 결과, 학업능력 및 가정배경의 격차로 4년제대에 진학하지 못하는 비율이 등록금 납부가 어려워 진학하지 못하는 비율을 크게 능가했다. 이는 등록금 인하와 같은 단기적 제약요인의 완화만으로는 대입격차문제 해결이 힘듦을 시사한다.

• 한국감성과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국감성과학회 1999년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.211-215
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• 1999

It is well known that a long-term exposure to a loud noise environment affects performance, since it distracts attention, and also is able to evoke stress accompanied by negative emotional states. The purpose of this study was to analyze dynamics of subjective and physiological variables during long-lasting (30 min) exposure to intensive white noise (85 dB[A]). Physiological signals on 23 college students were recorded by BIOPAC, Grass Neurodata systems and AcqKnowledge 3.5 software. Autonomic variables, namely skin conductance level (SCL), non-specific SCR number (N-SCR), inter-beat intervals in ECG (RR intervals), heart rate variability index (HF/LF ratio of HRV), respiration rate (RESP), and skin temperature (SKT) were analyzed on 5 min epoch basis. Psychological assessment (subjective rating of stress level) was also repeated on every 5 min basis. Regression and correlation analyses were employed to trace the time course of the dynamics of the subjective and autonomic physiological variables and their relationship. Results showed that intense noise evokes subjective stress with associated autonomic nervous system responses. However, it was shown that physiological variables endure specific changes in the process of exposure to loud white noise. Discussed are probable psychophysiological mechanisms mediating reactivity to long-term auditory stimulation of high intensity.