• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term Time Series

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A comparison between the real and synthetic cohort of mortality for Korea (가상코호트와 실제코호트 사망력 비교)

  • Oh, Jinho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.427-446
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    • 2018
  • Korea will have a super-aged society within only 30 years according to the United Nations' definition of an aging society and the statistics on Korea's Population projections (2016), indicates that Korea has the fastest ageing speed in the world. There is a lack of data on long-term time-series data on death as related to pension and welfare policies compared to the rapid rate of aging. This paper estimates life expectancy over 245 years (from 1955 to 2200) through past and future forecasts as well as compares the expected life expectancy of the synthetic cohort and the real cohort. In addition, an international comparisons were made to understand the level of aging in Korea. Estimates of the back-projection period were compared with previous studies and the LC model to improve accuracy and objectivity. In addition, the predictions after 2016 reflected the declined mortality rate effect of Korea using the LC-ER model. The results showed an increase in life expectancy of about 30 years over 60 years (1955-2015) with an expected life expectancy of the real cohort over the second century (1955-2155) higher than the synthetic cohort. The comparative advantage of life expectancy of real cohorts was confirmed to be a common trend among comparative countries. In addition, Japan and Korea have a higher life expectancy and starting from 85 to 90 years old, all comparative countries show that the growth rate for the life expectancy of synthetic and real cohorts is less than previous years.

Relationship between temporal variability of TPW and climate variables (가강수량의 변화패턴과 기후인자와의 상관성 분석)

  • Lee, Darae;Han, Kyung-Soo;Kwon, Chaeyoung;Lee, Kyeong-sang;Seo, Minji;Choi, Sungwon;Seong, Noh-hun;Lee, Chang-suk
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.331-337
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    • 2016
  • Water vapor is main absorption factor of outgoing longwave radiation. So, it is essential to monitoring the changes in the amount of water vapor and to understanding the causes of such changes. In this study, we monitor temporal variability of Total Precipitable Water (TPW) which observed by satellite. Among climate variables, precipitation play an important part to analyze temporal variability of water vapor because it is produced by water vapor. And El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ is one of climate variables which appear regularly in comparison with the others. Through them, we analyze relationship between temporal variability of TPW and climate variable. In this study, we analyzed long-term change of TPW from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroadiometer (MODIS) data and change of precipitation in middle area of Korea peninsula quantitatively. After these analysis, we compared relation of TPW and precipitation with El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$. The aim of study is to research El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ has an impact on TPW and precipitation change in middle area of Korea peninsula. First of all, we calculated TPW and precipitation from time series analysis quantitatively, and anomaly analysis is performed to analyze their correlation. As a result, TPW and precipitation has correlation mostly but the part had inverse correlation was found. This was compared with El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ of anomaly results. As a result, TPW and precipitation had inverse correlation after El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ occurred. It was found that El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ have a decisive effect on change of TPW and precipitation.

Root cause analysis of the abnormal wear on diesel engine crankpin and lubricant contamination (윤활유 오염과 디젤엔진의 크랭크핀 이상마모에 대한 원인 규명)

  • Seo, Jeongwoo;Park, Donghee
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.38 no.7
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    • pp.854-867
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    • 2014
  • In the circumstance that high oil price state is continued over the world, the investment in crude oil development by oil major is a trend of increasing. Recently the number of delivered drill-ship for 5 years has been sharply increased all over the world and about twice than that of past 30 years. As addition to the increase of the drill-ship demand, the operation of drill-ships which is delivered recently is about 3,000 meters, ultra deep sea, on average and the work area is expending. Accordingly the drilling system including the size and length of pipe for drilling has been bigger and bigger and the power supply equipment for operation system also has large capacity. Unlike merchant vessel, high power and high voltage of diesel generators are required for drill-ship for which the demand for V-type 320 bore of diesel generator has increased. It is on the raised that the importance of lubrication oil cleaning for diesel generator on drill-ship which has longer time for construction, and also long term low load operation is unavoidable during commissioning of equipments. Recently it was reported that engine crankpin was damaged due to the hard contact caused by the abnormal wear down(Cam wear) on crankpin and bearing. The same pattern of wear down was found through the inspection on series vessels and the other vessel under commissioning. The purpose of this paper is to analyze of the wear mechanism based on the observation and theories and objective research from actual cases and to prepare the counter measures to avoid foreseeable damage when the lubricating oil is not properly cleaned.

A Review of Acupuncture and Moxibustion for the Treatment of Parkinson's Disease (파킨슨병의 침구치료 동향에 대한 고찰)

  • Lee, Eun;Kang, Ki-Wan;Kim, Lak-Hyung;Kang, Sei-Young;Sun, Seung-Ho;Han, Chang-Ho;Jang, In-Soo
    • The Journal of Internal Korean Medicine
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.12-23
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    • 2014
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study was to report possibility of acupuncture or moxibustion for the treatment of Parkinson's disease (PD) by reviewing literature about its effectiveness. Methods : In this review, PubMed, SCOPUS, Science Direct and CINAHL of EBSCOhost were used to search medical journals, using keywords "Parkinson's disease and acupuncture" and "Parkinson's disease and moxibustion". The search range included randomized controlled trials (RCT) about Parkinson's disease combined with another disease and other treatments with acupuncture or moxibustion. Non-randomized controlled trial (nRCT), case study, animal experiment, human experiment, review, survey, essay, letter, and protocol for review were excluded. Results : From 311 studies, 111 were selected during the title and the screening. Finally, 16 RCTs (15 for acupuncture research and one for moxibustion) were included in this review, after scanning and matching the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The number of patients varied between 5 and 88. A total of 12 studies using electroacupuncture (EA) were classified into acupuncture studies. The body acupuncture studies numbered 4, scalp acupuncture 4, body and scarp acupuncture mixed studies 4, and bee venom, ear and abdomen acupuncture were each one study. In evaluation methods, total effective rate method was used in 9 studies, the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) was used in 8, and the Webster score in 2. In addition, the Berg balance scale (BBS), 30 m walking time, steps to walk 30 m, PD motor function score, and Motor Performance Series by Schoppe (MLS) method were used for evaluation. In 15 of the 16 studies, the verum acupuncture group showed significant improvement compared with the control. In 9 studies using total effective rate method, the effective rate was reported as 80.0-97.3% in verum acupuncture groups and 52.6-86.4% in controls. Conclusions : Acupuncture may be a plausible alternative method to care for the long term symptoms and treat movement impairment of Parkinson's disease. However, to confirm this result, high quality studies including randomized, placebo-controlled double-blind trials are warranted.

Abnormal Changes in Groundwater Monitoring Data Due to Small-Magnitude Earthquakes (지하수 모니터링 이상변동 자료를 이용한 소규모 지진 영향 유추)

  • Woo, Nam C.;Piao, Jize;Lee, Jae-Min;Lee, Chan-Jin;Kang, In-Oak;Choi, Doo-Houng
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 2015
  • This study tests the potential of detecting small-magnitude earthquakes (~M3.0) and their precursors using a long-term groundwater-monitoring database. In groundwater records from April to June 2012, abnormal changes in water level, temperature, and electrical conductivity were identified in the bedrock monitoring wells of the Gimcheon-Jijwa, Gangjin-Seongjeon, and Gongju-Jeongan stations. These anomalies could be attributed to the M3.1 earthquake that occurred in the Youngdeok area on May 30th, although no linear relationship was found between the scale of changes and the distance between each monitoring station and the epicenter, which is attributed in part to the wide screen design of the monitoring wells. Groundwater monitoring networks designed specifically for monitoring earthquake impacts could provide better information on the safety of underground space and on the security of emergency water-resources in earthquake disaster areas.

Reviews on the Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change -Application to the Sea Level Rise- (기후변화 적응방안 연구 -해수면 상승을 중심으로-)

  • Cho Kwangwoo;Maeng Jun-Ho;Kim Hae-Dong;Oh Young Min;Kim Dong-Sun;Kim Mu Chan;Yoon Jong Hwui
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.10 no.2 s.21
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2004
  • We review the adaptation strategies of the 21st climate change in an application to sea level rise. For the development of appropriate adaptation strategies on the coast vulnerable to the sea level rise, we have to consider the issues such as where to adapt, how to adapt, and when to adapt. The coastal target needed adaptation can be found by the evaluation of adaptive capacity of the coastal zone which requires the understanding of impacts and adaptive potential of the natural and socioeconomic systems in the coastal zone. Planned adaptation options to sea level rise can be classified into three generic approaches as managed retreat, accommodation, and protection In practice, the implementation of the options requires the analysis of land use, degree of vulnerability, cost and benefit, etc, and may be combination of the options rather than one approach. In terms of the response timing, the adaptation can be grouped as anticipatory and reactive ones. Generally it is more effective to consider both anticipatory and reactive adaptations at the same time for the impacts of future sea level rise. Due to the scientific uncertainty of climate change issues including sea level rise, the adaptation processes have to be designed to deal with a series of processes such as information md awareness establishment, planning and design implementation, and monitoring and evaluation in continuity and long-term period.

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What Is the Significance of a Large Number of Ruptured Aneurysms Smaller than 7 mm in Diameter?

  • Joo, Sang-Wook;Lee, Sun-Il;Noh, Seung-Jin;Jeong, Young-Gyun;Kim, Moo-Seong;Jeong, Yong-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.85-89
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    • 2009
  • Objective : The International Study of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms (ISUIA) reported that the 5-year cumulative rupture rate of small unruptured aneurysms less than 7 mm in diameter is very low depending on the aneurysm's location. However, we have seen a large number of ruptured aneurysms less than 7 mm in clinical practice. The purpose of this study was to review our experience and to measure the size and location at which aneurysms ruptured in our patient population. Methods : We reviewed the characteristics of aneurysms, such as size and location, from the original angiograms of patients who were admitted to our hospital between January 2004 and December 2007. All aneurysms were treated surgically or through endovascular procedures. Results : Interventional or surgical treatment was given to a total of 889 patients, including 568 females and 321 males. At the time of our study, 627 cases were ruptured aneurysms and 262 cases were unruptured aneurysms. Of the ruptured cases, the mean diameter of the aneurysm was 6.28 mm. We found that 71.8% of ruptured aneurysms were smaller than 7 mm in diameter, and 87.9%, were smaller than 10 mm. Based on location, the data show that anterior communicating artery aneurysms most often presented with rupture sizes less than 7 mm (76.8%) and 10 mm (92.1%) in diameter. Most ruptured aneurysms were less than 7 mm in size, although recent studies have noted that small aneurysms are less likely to rupture. Conclusion : Although the natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms remains controversial, the aneurysm size and location play a signigicant role in determining the risk of rupture. Larger sample sizes and a long term study are needed to reveal the natural history and the rupture risk of unruptured intracranial aneurysms because the size of most ruptured aneurysms was less than 7 mm in diameter in our series.

The Analysis of 2001 Land Use Distribution of Daejeon Metropolitan City based on KOMPSAT-1 EOC Imagery (KOMPSAT-1 EOC 자료를 활용한 2001년도 대전시 토지이용 현황의 공간적 분포 분석)

  • Kim, Youn-Soo;Jeon, Gap-Ho;Lee, Kwang-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2004
  • The dissemination of commercial satellite images. which have the high spatial resolution such as aerial photos, are the active trend in remote sensing community because of the recent development in satellite and sensor technology. Such high resolution satellite images provide a unique tool for the monitoring of ongoing urban land use change. Especially KOMPSAT-1, which was launched at December 1999 and successfully operated up to now, provides repeatedly panchromatic images over Korean peninsula, which has the spatial resolution of 6.6m. Based upon this KOMPSAT-1 EOC image data we can try to analyze and assess the temporal urban land use change, which could not be done because lack of such data. The aim of this paper is to analyze and assess the spatial land use characteristics of Daejeon Metropolitan City based on KOMPSAT-1 EOC data. The land use map of year 2001 is generated through the modification of the year 2000 land use map, which is published by National Geographic Information Institute, using visual interpretation of KOMPSAT-1 EOC image which is acquired in year 2001. This study can be the start point of the time series analysis of the long term land use change monitoring mit KOMPSAT-1 EOC data.

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Changes in Means and Extreme Events of Changma-Period Precipitation Since mid-Joseon Dynasty in Seoul, Korea (조선 중기 이후 서울의 장마철 강수 평균과 극한강수현상의 변화)

  • Choi, Gwangyong
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.23-40
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    • 2016
  • In this study, long-term changes in means and extreme events of precipitation during summer rainy period called Changma (late June~early September) are examined based on rainfall data observed by Chukwooki during Joseon Dynasty (1777~1907) and by modern rain-gauge onward (1908~2015) in Seoul, Korea. Also, characterizations of the relevant changes in synoptic climate fields in East Asia are made by the examination of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis I data. Analyses of 239-year time series of precipitation data demonstrate that the total precipitation as well as their inter-annual variability during the entire Changma period (late June~early September) has increased in the late 20th century and onward. Notably, since the early 1990s the means and extreme events during the summer Changma period (late June~mid-July) and Changma break period (late July~early August) has significantly increased, resulting in less clear demarcations of sub-Changma periods. In this regard, comparisons of synoptic climate fields before and after the early 1990s reveal that in recent decades the subtropical high pressure has expanded in the warmer Pacific as the advection of high-latitude air masses toward East Asia was enhanced due to more active northerly wind vector around the high pressure departure core over Mongolia. Consequently, it is suggested that the enhancement of rising motions due to more active confluence of the two different air masses along the northwestern borders of the Pacific might lead to the increases of the means and extreme events of Changma precipitation in Seoul in recent decades.

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Properties of Non-Sintered Cement Mortar using Alkali and Sulfate Mixed Stimulants Accroding to Curing Method (양생방법에 따른 알칼리 및 황산염 복합자극제를 사용한 비소성 시멘트 모르타르의 특성)

  • Park, Sung-Joon;Kim, Ji-Hoon;Hyung, Won-Gil
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.237-244
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    • 2015
  • Entering the 20th century since the industrial revolution, the cement has been widely used in the field of construction and civil engineering due to the remarkable development of construction industry. However, result from that development, each kind of industrial by-products and waste and the carbon dioxide generated in the process of cement production cause air pollution and environmental damage so earth is getting sick now slowly. Therefore, we have to recognize importance about this. It means that the time taking specific and long-term measures have come. In this research paper, as substitution of the cement generating environmental pollution, we investigate the hydration reaction of non-Sintered Cement mortar mixed with GBFS, active stimulant of alkaline and sulphate series by using SEM and XRD, mechanical and chemical properties according to the curing method. As a result of this experiment, NSC realized outstanding strength for water curing and steam curing. It means that it has a good possibility as substitution of cement. From now on, it can be used for structure satisfying specific standard. We expect to find a substitution of outstanding cement by progressing continuous research making the best use of pros and cons according to the curing method.