• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.67-90
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• 2016

This paper provides an assessment of the potential economic impacts of the Vietnam-Korea free trade agreement on Vietnam, by using general equilibrium modeling. The results show that Vietnam-Korea FTA will increase aggregate welfare for both countries in the long run. The most important gains accrue from better allocation of resources consequent to trade liberalization. All the sectoral differences and changes are consistent with the trade profiles of the two countries, and the long-run results are more pronounced than those of the short-run. In comparison with other ASEAN countries, the CGE analysis suggests that Vietnam's agriculture exports to Korea would especially rise in the long run. However, there will be strong competition in this sector among ASEAN members. Thus, an earlier conclusion of a comprehensive FTA with Korea is expected to be a good strategy for Vietnam, so as to avoid the direct competition with ASEAN members in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.520-530
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• 2015

This paper formulates the methodologies to estimate optimal congestion tolls from long-run and short-run perspectives and applies them to the highways of Seoul. An optimal long-run congestion toll is estimated with an optimal volume-capacity-ratio to minimize the total costs which consist of two components: road construction and maintenance costs and traveler costs. By contrast, an optimal short-run congestion toll is estimated with a supply-demand equilibrium which is determined by using a speed-flow function and a disaggregate modal choice model. The results of a long-run analysis for the Seobu urban expressway suggest the optimal volume-capacity-ratio of 1.35 and the optimal congestion toll of 503 Won per automobile kilometer. By contrast, those of a short-run analysis for the Mia-ro urban arterial suggest 1.31 and 420 Won, respectively. Although our results are to some degree dependent on the interest rate and time value assumed, one basic conclusion holds up: the congestions toll tested could generate substantial gains in social welfare if applied to Seoul.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.246-263
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• 2010

This study examines how the long-run relations between housing price and inflation in the United Sates have changed since the year of 2000. Johansen co-integration test, estimation of long-run equilibrium equation, and Granger causality tests are conducted, based on the VECM. Data covers the period from the first quarter of 1975 to the second quarter of 2010. I adopt the recursive estimation method in which the final period of the estimation is expanded by one quarter, starting from the first quarter of 2000. The empirical results are as follows: (1) In spite of the sharp increase of housing price, the long-run relationship of house prices and inflation has been remained stable until 2007, showing that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run. (2) The housing price plunge since 1997 does not seem to be related to the restore of the long-run relationship between housing prices and inflation. (3) Granger causality test results support the hypothesis that inflation granger-causes housing prices with 10% significance level, but reject the hypothesis that housing price granger-causes inflation.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.287-317
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• 2017

Asbestos has been actively used for various places. Since it was designated as the first grade carcinogen in the 1970s, strict regulations on using asbestos has been implemented globally. Considering long-term latent periods between asbestos exposure and environmental diseases, we analyze the time lag between asbestos consumption and the incidence of mesothelioma in Korea and estimate the long-run relationship. In addition, we conduct a comparative analysis on the effectiveness of asbestos regulations in the United Kingdom and the United States, which have accumulated long-term time-series observations. The latent period analysis indicates that the consumption of asbestos and the incidence of the disease are highly correlated in all three countries, being long-term lags of more than 30 years. Also, we find a long-run equilibrium relationship between asbestos consumption and the incidence of mesothelioma in the presence of long-term lags between the variables in all three countries. Furthermore, using a distributed lag model, asbestos consumption has statistically significant positive effects on mesothelioma with a long-term lag.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.65-71
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• 2003

We consider the finite dam with compound Poisson inputs which is called M/G/1 finite dam. We assign some costs related to operating the dam and calculate the long-run average cost per unit time. Then, we find the optimal dam capacity under which the average costs is minimized.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.27-37
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• 2016

This study uses an endogenous economic growth model to determine the long run relationship between trade openness and economic growth in China by using the data 1975-2009.It contributes to the literature by developing trade openness index. An autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and rolling regression method are employed. This study tests the link between trade openness and economic growth in the case of China by using the framework of endogenous economic growth model. This study also employs the rolling window regression method in order to examine the stability of coefficients throughout the sample span. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and rolling regression method are used. The empirical findings indicate that trade openness (i.e. Both individual trade indicator and composite trade openness index) are positively related to economic growth in the long run and short run. Our results indicate that trade openness as measured by individual trade indicator and composite trade openness index are positively related to economic growth in the long run and short run. However, results from the rolling window suggest that trade openness is negatively linked to economic growth only for a number of years.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.37-41
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• 2021

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate and Trade Balance. Trade Balance is used as the dependent variable, and the independent variables are Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and Inflation. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was adopted to test the stationary property of time series data, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model was employed to find the long run and short-run relationship and long-run adjustment, Bound test approach, the unrestricted Error Correction Model and Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data from 1977 to 2019. The research findings suggest that inflation has a positive impact on the trade balance in the short run. The exchange rate and the Gross Domestic Product have adverse effects on Trade balance in the long run. The coefficient of ER in the previous year is negative, and the coefficient of TB in the previous year is positive and significant. This is consistent with the J-Curve phenomenon, which states that devaluation may not improve trade balance in the immediate period, but will significantly impact the trade balance improvement in subsequent periods. Hence Marshall Lerner Condition exists in Sri Lanka.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.49-59
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• 2022

This paper examined the impact of real exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Malaysia by using quarterly data from year 2000 until 2019. Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was used to extract the volatility component of real exchange rate before examining its impact on trade balance. Furthermore, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the long-run relationship and short-run dynamic between trade balance, money supply, national income and volatility of exchange rate. Empirical results show the existence of co-movement between variables under study in the long-run. However, the results also suggest that volatility of real exchange rate does not significantly affect trade balance neither in the long-run nor short-run. The risk which is associated in the movement of exchange rate do not influence trader's behaviour toward Malaysia exports and imports. Thus, it should be note that any depreciation or appreciation in Malaysian Ringgit do not have an impact towards trade balance either it is being further improved or deteriorates. Hence, exchange rate volatility may not be too concern for policymakers. This may be partially due to manage floating exchange rate regime that has been adopted by Malaysia eventually eliminated the element of risk in the currency market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.139-154
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• 2021

This study's impetus is to explore fresh evidence to answer the question, i.e., whether remittances asymmetrically influence financial development in Bangladesh from 1975 to 2019. The study employs several tests, i.e., nonlinear unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL), NARDL, and asymmetric causality test for establishing the pattern of association. Nonlinear unit root tests confirm that variables follow a nonlinear system of being stationary after the first difference. nonlinearity among variables is investigated by performing the BDS test and nonlinear OLS. Directional causality is investigated through both linear and nonlinear effects of remittance inflows by following the non-granger casualty test. The test statistics of Fpass and tBDM showed the Long-run cointegration in the empirical model and positive effect running from remittances inflow to financial development both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, the results of a standard Wald test divulge the presence of long-run and short-run asymmetry. Asymmetry causality test established unidirectional causality due to positive and negative shocks in remittances inflows to Bank-based financial development and feedback hypothesis hold for explaining causality between positive and negative shocks in remittance inflows and Stock-based financial development.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.809-820
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• 2021

The study aimed to investigate the impact of sectoral bank credit facilities provided by commercial banks on the non-oil economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Bank credit facilities are given for nine economic sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, mining, electricity and water, health services, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and communications, services, and finance sector. The study employs annual data from 1970 to 2019. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to identify the long-run and short-run dynamics relationships among the variables. The main results reveal that the overall impact of total bank credit has a significant and positive effect on non-oil economic growth in KSA. The results revealed that the effect of bank credit on the non-oil GDP growth in the short and long run was uneven. The study finds that all sectors have a positive and significant impact in the long run, except for the agricultural and mining sectors. Likewise, all sectors have a positive and significant impact in the short run, except for construction, finance, services, and transportation & communications. As a result, bank credit facilities in different sectors have played an important role in enhancing the non-oil economic growth in the KSA.