• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제20권1호
• /
• pp.67-90
• /
• 2016

This paper provides an assessment of the potential economic impacts of the Vietnam-Korea free trade agreement on Vietnam, by using general equilibrium modeling. The results show that Vietnam-Korea FTA will increase aggregate welfare for both countries in the long run. The most important gains accrue from better allocation of resources consequent to trade liberalization. All the sectoral differences and changes are consistent with the trade profiles of the two countries, and the long-run results are more pronounced than those of the short-run. In comparison with other ASEAN countries, the CGE analysis suggests that Vietnam's agriculture exports to Korea would especially rise in the long run. However, there will be strong competition in this sector among ASEAN members. Thus, an earlier conclusion of a comprehensive FTA with Korea is expected to be a good strategy for Vietnam, so as to avoid the direct competition with ASEAN members in the future.

• 대한교통학회지
• /
• 제33권6호
• /
• pp.520-530
• /
• 2015

본 논문은 장기적 및 단기적 관점에서 도시내 도로의 최적 혼잡통행료를 추정하는 방법론을 구축하고, 이를 서울시의 주요 도로에 적용하였다. 장기적 관점의 최적 혼잡통행료는 도로 건설 유지비용과 통행자비용을 합한 총비용을 극소화하는 최적 교통량-용량 비율을 구한 다음 추정된다. 반면 단기적 관점의 최적 혼잡통행료는 통행시간-교통량 함수와 개별수단선택모형을 이용해 공급-수요 균형점을 구한 다음 추정된다. 도시고속도로인 서부간선도로에 대한 장기적 관점의 분석 결과 최적 교통량-용량비율과 승용차-km당 최적 혼잡통행료는 1.35와 503원인 반면, 도시간선도로인 미아로에 대한 단기적 관점의 분석 결과는 1.31과 420원인 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석 결과는 어느 정도 할인율과 시간 가치에 영향을 받으나, 혼잡통행료를 부과하면 사회후생이 증가하는 것은 변함이 없는 것으로 나타났다.

• 국제지역연구
• /
• 제14권3호
• /
• pp.246-263
• /
• 2010

본 연구에서는 2000년 이후 미국의 주택가격과 물가의 장기적 관계가 어떻게 변화하고 있는지를 분석하였다. 분석 모형은 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 이용하였으며, 모형을 통해 공적분 검정과 장기균형식 추정 그리고 그랜저 인과검정을 실시하였다. 데이터 기간은 1975년 1분기부터 2010년 2분기까지이며, 모형 추정 및 검정 기간의 최종 시점을 2000년 1분기부터 한 분기씩 늘려나가는 축차적(recursive) 방식을 택하였다. 실증 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 서브 프라임 모기지 사태 이전의 주택가격이 급등했던 시기에도 주택가격과 물가는 안정적인 장기균형관계를 유지하였다. 둘째, 주택가격과 물가의 장기 균형 관계가 2007년 이후 상당한 변화를 보였으며, 장기균형 이탈에 대한 주택가격변수의 조정 계수도 이론적인 부호와는 반대로 나타나고 있다. 이러한 결과는 2007년 이후의 주택 가격 하락이 물가와 주택가격의 안정적인 장기균형의 회복을 위한 주택가격 자체의 조정이라고 보기는 어렵다는 것을 시사한다. 셋째, 그랜저 인과검정 결과 10% 유의수준 하에서 물가가 주택가격을 그랜저-코즈 하는 것으로 나타났으며, 주택가격이 물가를 그랜저-코즈 하는가에 대한 검정은 기각되었다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
• /
• 제26권3호
• /
• pp.287-317
• /
• 2017

경제성장과정에서 석면을 활용해왔지만, 석면이 치명적인 환경성질환을 유발하는 1급 발암물질로 지정되면서 전 세계적으로 엄격한 석면사용규제 조치를 실시하고 있다. 석면노출과 환경성질환의 발현 간에 수십 년에 걸친 장기 잠복기가 존재한다는 특성을 고려하여, 한국의 석면 소비량과 악성중피종 발병 간의 시차를 분석하고 장기관계를 추정한다. 이와 함께, 한국에 비해 상대적으로 석면규제가 오랜 기간 이루어지고 장기시계열 자료를 갖춘 영국과 미국을 대상으로 한 비교분석도 병행한다. 시차분석에서는, 3개 국가 모두에서 30년 이상의 장기시차가 존재할 때, 석면 소비와 악성중피종 발병 간의 교차상관성이 높은 것으로 나타난다. 또한 변수간 장기시차가 존재할 경우 석면 소비량과 악성중피종 발병 간에 장기균형관계가 존재한다. 그리고 시차분포모형을 활용한 결과, 석면 소비량이 장기시차를 두고 악성중피종에 유의한 정의 영향을 미치고 있다.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• 제32권1호
• /
• pp.65-71
• /
• 2003

We consider the finite dam with compound Poisson inputs which is called M/G/1 finite dam. We assign some costs related to operating the dam and calculate the long-run average cost per unit time. Then, we find the optimal dam capacity under which the average costs is minimized.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제3권3호
• /
• pp.27-37
• /
• 2016

This study uses an endogenous economic growth model to determine the long run relationship between trade openness and economic growth in China by using the data 1975-2009.It contributes to the literature by developing trade openness index. An autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and rolling regression method are employed. This study tests the link between trade openness and economic growth in the case of China by using the framework of endogenous economic growth model. This study also employs the rolling window regression method in order to examine the stability of coefficients throughout the sample span. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and rolling regression method are used. The empirical findings indicate that trade openness (i.e. Both individual trade indicator and composite trade openness index) are positively related to economic growth in the long run and short run. Our results indicate that trade openness as measured by individual trade indicator and composite trade openness index are positively related to economic growth in the long run and short run. However, results from the rolling window suggest that trade openness is negatively linked to economic growth only for a number of years.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권5호
• /
• pp.37-41
• /
• 2021

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate and Trade Balance. Trade Balance is used as the dependent variable, and the independent variables are Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and Inflation. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was adopted to test the stationary property of time series data, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model was employed to find the long run and short-run relationship and long-run adjustment, Bound test approach, the unrestricted Error Correction Model and Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data from 1977 to 2019. The research findings suggest that inflation has a positive impact on the trade balance in the short run. The exchange rate and the Gross Domestic Product have adverse effects on Trade balance in the long run. The coefficient of ER in the previous year is negative, and the coefficient of TB in the previous year is positive and significant. This is consistent with the J-Curve phenomenon, which states that devaluation may not improve trade balance in the immediate period, but will significantly impact the trade balance improvement in subsequent periods. Hence Marshall Lerner Condition exists in Sri Lanka.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제9권10호
• /
• pp.49-59
• /
• 2022

This paper examined the impact of real exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Malaysia by using quarterly data from year 2000 until 2019. Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was used to extract the volatility component of real exchange rate before examining its impact on trade balance. Furthermore, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the long-run relationship and short-run dynamic between trade balance, money supply, national income and volatility of exchange rate. Empirical results show the existence of co-movement between variables under study in the long-run. However, the results also suggest that volatility of real exchange rate does not significantly affect trade balance neither in the long-run nor short-run. The risk which is associated in the movement of exchange rate do not influence trader's behaviour toward Malaysia exports and imports. Thus, it should be note that any depreciation or appreciation in Malaysian Ringgit do not have an impact towards trade balance either it is being further improved or deteriorates. Hence, exchange rate volatility may not be too concern for policymakers. This may be partially due to manage floating exchange rate regime that has been adopted by Malaysia eventually eliminated the element of risk in the currency market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권3호
• /
• pp.139-154
• /
• 2021

This study's impetus is to explore fresh evidence to answer the question, i.e., whether remittances asymmetrically influence financial development in Bangladesh from 1975 to 2019. The study employs several tests, i.e., nonlinear unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL), NARDL, and asymmetric causality test for establishing the pattern of association. Nonlinear unit root tests confirm that variables follow a nonlinear system of being stationary after the first difference. nonlinearity among variables is investigated by performing the BDS test and nonlinear OLS. Directional causality is investigated through both linear and nonlinear effects of remittance inflows by following the non-granger casualty test. The test statistics of Fpass and tBDM showed the Long-run cointegration in the empirical model and positive effect running from remittances inflow to financial development both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, the results of a standard Wald test divulge the presence of long-run and short-run asymmetry. Asymmetry causality test established unidirectional causality due to positive and negative shocks in remittances inflows to Bank-based financial development and feedback hypothesis hold for explaining causality between positive and negative shocks in remittance inflows and Stock-based financial development.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.809-820
• /
• 2021

The study aimed to investigate the impact of sectoral bank credit facilities provided by commercial banks on the non-oil economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Bank credit facilities are given for nine economic sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, mining, electricity and water, health services, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and communications, services, and finance sector. The study employs annual data from 1970 to 2019. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to identify the long-run and short-run dynamics relationships among the variables. The main results reveal that the overall impact of total bank credit has a significant and positive effect on non-oil economic growth in KSA. The results revealed that the effect of bank credit on the non-oil GDP growth in the short and long run was uneven. The study finds that all sectors have a positive and significant impact in the long run, except for the agricultural and mining sectors. Likewise, all sectors have a positive and significant impact in the short run, except for construction, finance, services, and transportation & communications. As a result, bank credit facilities in different sectors have played an important role in enhancing the non-oil economic growth in the KSA.