• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.265-271
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• 2015

The tsunami hazard analysis is performed for testing the application of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis to nuclear power plant sites in the Korean Peninsula. Tsunami hazard analysis is based on the seismic hazard analysis. Probabilistic method is adopted for considering the uncertainties caused by insufficient information of tsunamigenic fault sources. Logic tree approach is used. Uljin nuclear power plant (NPP) site is selected for this study. The tsunamigenic fault sources in the western part of Japan (East Sea) are used for this study because those are well known fault sources in the East Sea and had several records of tsunami hazards. We have performed numerical simulations of tsunami propagation for those fault sources in the previous study. Therefore we use the wave parameters obtained from the previous study. We follow the method of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) suggested by the atomic energy society of Japan (AESJ). Annual exceedance probabilities for wave height level are calculated for the site by using the information about the recurrence interval, the magnitude range, the wave parameters, the truncation of lognormal distribution of wave height, and the deviation based on the difference between simulation and record. Effects of each parameters on tsunami hazard are tested by the sensitivity analysis, which shows that the recurrence interval and the deviation dominantly affects the annual exceedance probability and the wave heigh level, respectively.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.129-137
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• 2018

On November 15, 2017, Pohang earthquake occurred. Its local magnitude was announced to be $M_L=5.4$ by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Ground motion data recorded at KMA stations were obtained from their data bases. From the data, horizontal and vertical response spectra, and V/H ratio were calculated. The horizontal spectra were defined as GMRotI50 spectra. From the statistical analysis of the GMRotI50 spectra, a mean plus one standard deviation spectrum in lognormal distribution is obtained. Regression analysis is performed on this curve to determine the shape of spectrum including transition periods. Applying the same procedure, the shape and transition periods of vertical spectrum were obtained. These results were compared with theKorean standard design spectra, which were developed from domestic and overseas intra-plate earthquake records, and Gyeongju earthquake response spectra. The response spectra of Pohang earthquake were found to be almost identical with the newly proposed design spectra. Even the V/H ratios showed good agreement. These results confirmed that the method adopted when developing the standard design spectra were valid and the developed design spectra were reliable.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.725-736
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• 2017

This paper presents the two-, three-, and four-lane transverse reduction factor based on FEA method, probability theory, and the recently actual traffic flow data. A total of 72 composite girder bridges with various spans, number of lanes, loading mode, and bridge type are analyzed with time-varying static load FEA method by ANSYS, and the probability models of vehicle load effects at arbitrary-time point are developed. Based on these probability models, in accordance to the principle of the same exceeding probability, the multi-lane transverse reduction factor of these composite girder bridges and the relationship between the multi-lane transverse reduction factor and the span of bridge are determined. Finally, the multi-lane transverse reduction factor obtained is compared with those from AASHTO LRFD, BS5400, JTG D60 or Eurocode. The results show that the vehicle load effect at arbitrary-time point follows lognormal distribution. The two-, three-, and four-lane transverse reduction factors calculated by using FEA method and probability respectively range between 0.781 and 1.027, 0.616 and 0.795, 0.468 and 0.645. Furthermore, a correlation between the FEA and AASHTO LRFD, BS5400, JTG D60 or Eurocode transverse reduction factors is made for composite girder bridges. For the two-, three-, and four-lane bridge cases, the Eurocode code underestimated the FEA transverse reduction factors by 27%, 25% and 13%, respectively. This underestimation is more pronounced in short-span bridges. The AASHTO LRFD, BS5400 and JTG D60 codes overestimated the FEA transverse reduction factors. The FEA results highlight the importance of considering span length in determining the multi-lane transverse reduction factors when designing two-lane or more composite girder bridges. This paper will assist bridge engineers in quantifying the adjustment factors used in analyzing and designing multi-lane composite girder bridges.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.313-322
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• 2018

The present study is dedicated to investigate the SH body-as well as Love-waves propagation effects in porous media with uncertain porosity and permeability. A unified formulation of the governing equations for one-dimensional (1-D) wave propagation in anisotropic porous layered media is presented deterministically. The uncertainties around the above two cited parameters are taken into account by random fields with the help of Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). Random samples of the porosity and the permeability are generated according to the normal and lognormal distribution functions, respectively, with a mean value and a coefficient of variation for each one of the two parameters. After performing several thousands of samples, the mathematical expectation (mean) of the solution of the wave propagation equations in terms of amplification functions for SH waves and in terms of dispersion equation for Love-waves are obtained. The limits of the Love wave velocity in a porous soil layer overlaying a homogeneous half-space are obtained where it is found that random variations of porosity change the zeros of the wave equation. Also, the increase of uncertainties in the porosity (high coefficient of variation) decreases the mean amplification function amplitudes and shifts the fundamental frequencies. However, no effects are observed on both Love wave dispersion and amplification function for random variations of permeability. Lastly, the present approach is applied to a case study in the Adapazari town basin so that to estimate ground motion accelerations lacked in the fast-growing during the main shock of the damaging 1999 Kocaeli earthquake.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.43-55
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 연약지반개량공법의 하나인 쇄석다짐말뚝공법의 저항계수를 산정하기 위한 저항편향계수를 산정하였다. 쇄석다짐말뚝공법의 저항편향계수를 산정하기 위하여 국내외 현장에서 수행된 41개 말뚝의 재하시험 결과로부터 산출된 2.54cm 침하량기준의 극한지지력과 말뚝직경의 2~3배의 깊이에서 팽창파괴가 지배적인 파괴유형이므로 팽창파괴에 대한 7개의 극한지지력공식을 사용하여 저향편향계수를 분석한 결과 확률밀도함수는 쇄석다짐말뚝의 7개 팽창파괴에 대한 극한지지력식 모두 로그정규분포 형태를 보였고, 저항편향계수/변동계수는 Greenwood(1970) 제안식에서는 0.91/0.38, Hughes & Withers(1974) 제안식에서는 1.19/0.39로 팽창파괴에 대한 극한지지력식 중에서 저항계수설계법의 저항계수 산정 시 적합한 제안식으로 분석되었다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.277-286
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• 2017

On September 12, 2016, Gyeongju earthquake occurred. Its local magnitude was announced to be $M_L=5.8$ by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Ground motion data recorded at KMA, EMC and KERC stations was obtained from their data bases. From the data, horizontal and vertical response spectra, and V/H ratio were calculated. The horizontal spectrum was defined as geometric mean spectrum, GMRotI50. From the statistical analysis of the geometric mean spectra, a mean plus one standard deviation spectrum in lognormal distribution is obtained. Regression analysis is performed on this curve to determine the shape of spectrum including transition periods. Applying the same procedure, the shape and transition periods of vertical spectrum was obtained. These results were compared with the Korean standard design spectra, which were developed from domestic and overseas intraplate earthquake records. The response spectra of Gyeongju earthquake were found to be almost identical with the newly proposed design spectra. Even the V/H ratios showed good agreement. These results confirmed that the method adopted when developing the standard design spectra were valid and the developed design spectra were reliable.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.139-151
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• 1992

유입량의 분포에 따른 가변(可變) 제한수위(制限水位)아래서 홍수기(洪水期) 저수지 이수운영(利水運營)모형을 수립하였다. 사용된 최적화모형은 방류량(放流量)의 기대방류량(期待放流量)으로부터의 편차를 최소화하는 모형과 홍수조절용량을 최소화하는 위험도제약(危險度制約) 선형계획법(線形計劃法)(CCLP)모형(模型)의 2가지 부모형(副模型)으로 구성되어 있다. 확정론적 등가식을 만들기위해 유입량의 분포는 2모수(母數) 대수정규분포(對數正規分布)를 가정하였으며 모수(母數)는 최우추정법(最尤推定法)에 의하여 구하였다. 모형은 소양강(昭陽江)댐과 충주(忠州)댐의 홍수기 운계운영(運繫運營)에 적용되었다. 그 결과 소양(昭陽)이 충주(忠州)보다 상대적으로 큰 규모의 홍수사상에 대하여 설계되었음을 알 수 있었다. 가변제한수위(可變制限水位)를 이용한 운영은 일률제한수위(一律制限水位)의 운영보다 효율적인 것으로 나타나는데 이는 충주(忠州)에서 더욱 두드러졌다, 유입홍수량이 큰 시구간의 방류형태는 홍수량의 규모를 줄이는 조절효과와 지체효과를 보이며, 갈수시에는 상대적으로 실제보다 많은 방류를 하는 형태를 보인다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.857-871
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• 2013

한국을 비롯한 많은 국가에서 수출보험은 수출증진을 위한 수단으로 이용되어 왔다. 무역자유화를 위한 세계무역기구의 출범 이후에도 수출보험은 여전히 수출증진을 위한 주요 수단으로 인식된다. 본 논문은 국내 기업의 해외법인이 체결한 단기수출보험의 자료를 이용하여 수출보험과 관련한 위험요소(수입자의 신용등급, 결제기간, 모기업의 크기)의 각 등급에 따른 보험가입금액 대비 보험금 지급비율을 산출한다. 이를 위해 일반화 선형모형을 활용, 모델 선택과정을 거쳐 사고빈도(frequency)와 사고심도(severity)를 각각 음이항분포와 로그노말분포로 적합한다. 그리고 일반화 선형모형의 분석결과를 바탕으로 사고빈도와 사고심도에 미치는 각 위험요소의 등급에 따른 계약건수 대비 평균 사고발생 비율과 보험가입금액 대비 평균 지급비율을 제시한다. 이후 이를 통합함으로써 각 위험요소의 등급별 지급비율의 기댓값을 추정한다. 그리고 이 결과를 이용하여 요율산정에 대한 시사점을 논의한다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제34권11호
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• pp.1705-1713
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• 2010

피로시험의 결과가 큰 편차를 보이는 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부에 대해서 통계적 피로수명 평가법을 이용하여 신뢰도 높은 피로수명을 추정하고자 한다. 저상버스 차체에 사용되는 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부를 절취하여 시험대상으로 하였으며, 이 조인트 시편으로 외팔보형 피로굽힘시험을 수행하였다. 피로시험 데이터를 정규분포, 대수정규분포, 와이블 분포를 이용하여 근접시킨 피로수명 곡선들과 각각 비교함으로써 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부의 내구수명 추정에 가장 적합한 확률분포를 선정하였다. 선정된 와이블 확률분포를 이용해 확률-응력-수명(P-S-N) 곡선을 구함으로써 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부에 대한 통계적 수명예측 평가절차와 신뢰성설계의 기초자료를 제시하였다.

• 한국자기학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.11-17
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 열 분해법으로 크기가 각각 D=4.67 nm, 5.64 nm 및 6.34 nm인 균일한 산화철 나노입자를 제조하여 강자성 공명 신호를 측정하였다. 측정된 강자성 공명 신호는 입자의 부피가 로그 정규 확률 분포를 갖는 초상자성 나노입자에 대하여 계산한 결과와 비교 분석하였다. 강자성 공명 신호의 선폭은 나노입자의 크기가 증가함에 따라 넓어졌으며, tanh($V^2$)에 비례하는 특성을 보였다. 이러한 나노입자의 크기에 따른 선폭 증가는 나노입자들 표면에 분포하는 표면 스핀과 결정 이방성 특성을 갖는 내부 스핀들에 의한 두 가지 강자성 공명 신호의 중첩에 기인함을 알 수 있었다.