• Title/Summary/Keyword: Lognormal Distribution

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Median Control Chart for Nonnormally Distributed Processes (비정규분포공정에서 메디안특수관리도 통용모형설정에 관한 실증적 연구(요약))

  • 신용백
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.10 no.16
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    • pp.101-106
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    • 1987
  • Statistical control charts are useful tools to monitor and control the manufacturing processes and are widely used in most Korean industries. Many Korean companies, however, do not always obtain desired results from the traditional control charts by Shewhart such as the $\bar{X}$-chart, $\bar{X}$-chart, $\bar{X}$-chart, etc. This is partly because the quality charterstics of the process are not distributed normally but are skewed due to the intermittent production, small lot size, etc. In Shewhart $\bar{X}$-chart. which is the most widely used one in Kora, such skewed distributions make the plots to be inclined below or above the central line or outside the control limits although no assignable causes can be found. To overcome such shortcomings in nonnormally distributed processes, a distribution-free type of confidence interval can be used, which should be based on order statistics. This thesis is concerned with the design of control chart based on a sample median which is easy to use in practical situation and therefore properties for nonnormal distributions may be easily analyzed. Control limits and central lines are given for the more famous nonnormal distributions, such as Gamma, Beta, Lognormal, Weibull, Pareto, Truncated-normal distributions. Robustness of the proposed median control chart is compared with that of the $\bar{X}$-chart; the former tends to be superior to the latter as the probability distribution of the process becomes more skewed. The average run length to detect the assignable cause is also compared when the process has a Normal or a Gamma distribution for which the properties of X are easy to verify, the proposed chart is slightly worse than the $\bar{X}$-chart for the normally distributed product but much better for Gamma-distributed products. Average Run Lengths of the other distributions are also computed. To use the proposed control chart, the probability distribution of the process should be known or estimated. If it is not possible, the results of comparison of the robustness force us to use the proposed median control chart based oh a normal distribution. To estimate the distribution of the process, Sturge's formula is used to graph the histogram and the method of probability plotting, $\chi$$^2$-goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, are discussed with real case examples. A comparison of the proposed median chart and the $\bar{X}$ chart was also performed with these examples and the median chart turned out to be superior to the $\bar{X}$-chart.

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Analysis of Temperature and Probability Distribution Model of Frozen Storage Warehouses in South Korea (국내 식품냉동창고 온도분포 실태 및 확률분포모델 분석)

  • Park, Myoung-Su;Kim, Ga-Ram;Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.199-204
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    • 2019
  • This study aimed to generate a probability distribution model based on temperature data of frozen food storage facility as input variables for microbial risk assessment (MRA). We visited 8 food-handling businesses to collect temperature data from their cold storage warehouses. The overall mean temperature inside the storage facilities was $-20.48{\pm}3.08^{\circ}C$, with 20.4% of the facilities having above $-18^{\circ}C$, with minimum and maximum temperature values of -10.3 and $-25.80^{\circ}C$ respectively. Temperature distributions by space locations of natural and forced convection were $-22.57{\pm}0.84$ and $-17.81{\pm}1.47^{\circ}C$, $-22.49{\pm}1.05$ and $-17.94{\pm}1.44^{\circ}C$, and $-22.68{\pm}1.03$ and $-18.08{\pm}1.42^{\circ}C$ in the upper (2.4~4 m), middle (1.5~2.4 m), and lower (0.7~1.5 m) shelves, respectively. Probability distributions from the temperature data were obtained using the program @RISK. Statistical ranking was determined using goodness of fit to determine the probability distribution model. Our results show that a log-normal distribution [5.9731, 3.3483, shift (-26.4281)] is most appropriate for relative MRA conduction.

Regression Analysis of the Log-Normally Distributed Data and Mean Field Bias Correction of Radar Rainfall (대수정규분포를 따르는 자료의 회귀분석과 레이더 강우의 편의 보정)

  • Yoo, Chul Sang;Park, Cheol Soon;Yoon, Jung Soo;Ha, Eun Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.5B
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    • pp.431-438
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    • 2011
  • This study investigated the problem of mean-field bias correction under the assumption that the radar and rain gauge rainfall data follow the log-normal distribution. Regression curves for the average, median and mode of the radar and rain gauge rainfall were derived and evaluated for their usefulness. Additionally, these regression curves were compared with those derived under the assumption that the radar and rain gauge data follow the normal distribution. This study investigated the regression results for the Typhoon Meami occurred in 2003 as an example. As results, three regression lines with the radar rainfall as the independent variable were found to underestimate the rainfall, while those with the rain gauge rainfall as the independent variable to overestimate. Among three types of regression curves considered, the result for the average was most appropriate. However this case was found to be inferior to the regression line passing the origin under the assumption of the normal distribution with the rain gauge rainfall as its independent variable. So it was hard to conclude that the consideration of the log-normality on the correction of radar rainfall is beneficial.

Estimation of Berthing Velocity Using Probability Distribution Characteristics in Tanker Terminal (확률분포 특성을 이용한 탱커부두에서의 선박접안속도 예측값 추정)

  • Lee, Sang-Won;Cho, Jang-Won;Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.186-196
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    • 2019
  • Berthing energy is majorly influenced by the berthing velocity. It is necessary to design an appropriate berthing velocity for each pier, since excessive berthing velocity can cause berthing accident causing damage to the ship and pier. In this study, as a statistical approach for berthing velocity, the probability distributions suitable for the berthing velocities were confirmed using the K-S test, the A-D test and the Q-Q plot. As a result, the frequency distribution of the berthing velocity was found to be suitable using the Weibull distribution as well as the lognormal distribution. Additionally, the predicted values obtained through estimation of the berthing velocity using the concept of probability of exceedance in this study is proposed as a reference of design berthing velocity. It can be observed that the design berthing velocity is set to be somewhat low so that it does not practically match with the reality. This study and its results can be expected to contribute to the development of a proper design velocity calculation method.

A Study on the Method of Computing Standard Wartime Maintenance Man-Hour Incorporating Wartime Maintenance Condition (전장 정비환경을 고려한 전시 표준정비인시 산출방안 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.477-483
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    • 2021
  • In a military maintenance system, the standard maintenance man-hour of weapon systems is a tool to estimate the maintenance capabilities of maintenance units, provide standards for determining the maintenance needs and workload, and provide basic data for establishing a maintenance plan. The standard maintenance man-hours of major weapon systems have already been derived and used, but the standard maintenance man-hour in a wartime maintenance environment has not been computed. Therefore, the standard wartime maintenance man-hours need to be derived and This study proposes a process and method of computing the maintenance man-hours. In addition, this work suggests the criteria of collecting and screening data that is necessary for estimating the standard maintenance man-hours and introduces a methodology for analyzing the characteristics of maintenance man-hour distribution in the process. The proposed process first designs a model that reflects the wartime maintenance environment, selects statistical techniques, collects maintenance data, analyzes the descriptive statistics, estimates the distribution, and finally presents representative values of maintenance man-hour. Based on the proposed method, the standard wartime maintenance man-hours of the four weapon systems were calculated, and the distribution of the maintenance man-hours was analyzed to follow a lognormal distribution, and the method presented reliable results.

Characteristics of Lineament and Fracture System in the North-eastern Area of Yosu Peninsula (여수반도 북동부지역의 선상구조와 단열계 분포특성)

  • 김경수;이은용;김천수
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 1999
  • This study aims to quantify the distribution characteristics of the fracture system for the numerical modeling of groundwater flow in the north-eastern area of Yosu peninsula. The study area is composed mainly of volcanic rocks and granite. The regional and site scale lineament in the range of magnitude Order 1 to Order 3 were analyzed from the geologic map, air-photograph and shaded relief map. The geometric parameter of Order 4 fracture system was acquired from the scanline survey on the ground surface. There is a similar trend in the preferred orientation between the regional lineament and the Order 4 fracture system except the Set 4 of Order 4 fracture system which is not prominent in the type. That is classified to three fracture sat of high dip angle and one of ow dip angle. From the lineament trend. The orientation of Order 4 fracture system has similar characteristics in each rock termination mode analysis, it is considered that the fracture system was developed systematically and sequentially from Set 1 to Set 4 Filling materials are distinct relatively in low dip angle set. The fracture spacing follows to lognoral distribution and the fracture frequency corrected by the modified Terzaghi correction ranges from 0.38 to 1.01 per mater in each fracture set. The fracture trace lenght also follows to lognormal distribution and ranges from 2.9m to 3.7m in each fracture set.

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Study on Variability of WTP Estimates by the Estimation Methods using Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Data (양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료의 추정방법에 따른 지불의사금액의 변동성 연구)

  • Shin, Youngchul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2016
  • This study investigated the variability of WTP estimates(i.e. mean or median) with ad hoc assumptions of specific parametric probability distributions(i.e. normal, logistic, lognormal, and exponential distribution) to estimate WTP function using dichotomous choice CV data on mortality risk reduction. From the perspective of policy decision, the variability of these WTP estimates are intolerable in comparison with those of Turnbull nonparametric estimation method which is free from ad hoc distribution assumptions. The Turnbull nonparametric estimation can avoid a kind of misspecification bias due to ad hoc assumption of specific parametric distributions. Furthermore, the WTP estimates by Turnbull nonparametric estimation are robust because the similar estimates are elicited from a dichotomous choice or double dichotomous choice CV data, and the statistically significant WTP estimates can be obtained even though it is not possible by parametric estimation methods. If there are considerable variability among those WTP estimates by parametric estimation methods in condition with no criteria of model adequacy, the mean WTPs from Turnbull nonparametric estimation can be the robust estimates without ad hoc assumptions, which can avoid controversial issues in the perspective of policy decisions.

Comparison of Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches through Cases of Exposure Assessment of Child Products (어린이용품 노출평가 연구에서의 결정론적 및 확률론적 방법론 사용실태 분석 및 고찰)

  • Jang, Bo Youn;Jeong, Da-In;Lee, Hunjoo
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.223-232
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: In response to increased interest in the safety of children's products, a risk management system is being prepared through exposure assessment of hazardous chemicals. To estimate exposure levels, risk assessors are using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to statistical methodology and a commercialized Monte Carlo simulation based on tools (MCTool) to efficiently support calculation of the probability density functions. This study was conducted to analyze and discuss the usage patterns and problems associated with the results of these two approaches and MCTools used in the case of probabilistic approaches by reviewing research reports related to exposure assessment for children's products. Methods: We collected six research reports on exposure and risk assessment of children's products and summarized the deterministic results and corresponding underlying distributions for exposure dose and concentration results estimated through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. We focused on mechanisms and differences in the MCTools used for decision making with probabilistic distributions to validate the simulation adequacy in detail. Results: The estimation results of exposure dose and concentration from the deterministic approaches were 0.19-3.98 times higher than the results from the probabilistic approach. For the probabilistic approach, the use of lognormal, Student's T, and Weibull distributions had the highest frequency as underlying distributions of the input parameters. However, we could not examine the reasons for the selection of each distribution because of the absence of test-statistics. In addition, there were some cases estimating the discrete probability distribution model as the underlying distribution for continuous variables, such as weight. To find the cause of abnormal simulations, we applied two MCTools used for all reports and described the improper usage routes of MCTools. Conclusions: For transparent and realistic exposure assessment, it is necessary to 1) establish standardized guidelines for the proper use of the two statistical approaches, including notes by MCTool and 2) consider the development of a new software tool with proper configurations and features specialized for risk assessment. Such guidelines and software will make exposure assessment more user-friendly, consistent, and rapid in the future.

Comparison of Unit Load from Paddy Field by Various Estimation Methods (산정방법에 따른 논 원단위 비교)

  • Choi, Dongho;Jung, Jaewoon;Yoon, Kwangsik;Choi, Woojung;Cho, Sohyun;Beom, Jina;Yoo, Seungwha
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.407-419
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    • 2015
  • The unit load of paddy field was estimated by several methods and compared in this study. Four year field study was conducted at the paddy fields located in Yeongsan river and Sumjin river basins. The unit load was estimated by four methods; (1) averaging field monitored load; (2) NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research) method which use EMC(Event Mean Concentration) and runoff ratio of rainfall groups with rainfall weighting factors; (3)method using EMC determined by best fit probability distribution; (4)method using arithmetic mean EMC and runoff ratio. The result of this study showed that the unit loads of water quality constituents by field monitoring was similar to those of NIER method whereas those by probability distribution(log-normal, gamma) method were less than unit loads of NIER method. The unit loads by arithmetic mean EMC and runoff ratio were larger than those by NIER method. The unit load by NIER method showed higher BOD, COD, SS, lesser T-N, and similar T-P values when compared to unit loads determined by MOE in 1995.

A Study on Exposure to Volatile Organic Compounds at Gas Stations in Korea (국내 일부 주유소 내에서의 휘발성 유기화합물 노출에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Sang Hwan;Paik, Nam Won;Ha, Kwon Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.58-73
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    • 2000
  • Objectives : This study was performed to evaluate BTEX exposure to gas station service attendants and the critical affect of benzene and MtBE airborne concentration. Methods : the degree of exposure to airborne BTEX and MtBE was examined in the service attendants at seven gas stations across the country during a summer season. The TWAs(time-weighted averages) of atmospheric concentration of substances in personal and area samples, were calculated. The component ratio of BTEX and MtBE in the samples of bulk gasoline from each station studied was also measured. Results : The airborne concentrations of BTEX and MtBE showed a lognormal distribution and The TWA concentrations of benzene in personal samples from each station were 0.089 ppm - 0.18 ppm, and those of toluene were 0.097 ppm - 0.2 ppm. The average TWA concentrations of xylene and ethyl benzene was 0.03 ppm and 0.001 ppm, respectively. The TWA concentrations of MtBE were 0.4 ppm - 1.3 ppm. The volume concentrations of MtBE, toluene, ethyl benzene and xylene in the bulk gasoline samples were 3 - 7.4 %, 3 - 12 %, 0.64 % and 1.5 - 10 %, respectively. Conclusions : The benzene concentration was detected to exceed the ACGIH threshold benzene level of 0.5 ppm, in one of 74 personal and area samples. MtBE, a substitute for aromatic compounds such as benzene in gasoline, was found to bring about a greater chance of exposure to carcinogen, due to its high vapor pressure and carcinogenicity.

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