• Title/Summary/Keyword: Logit model

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An Analysis on Consumer Preference for Attributes of Agricultural Box Scheme (농산물 꾸러미 속성별 소비자선호 분석)

  • Park, Jae-Dong;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Jang, Woo-Whan;Lim, Cheong-Ryong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we analyze consumer preferences based on the agricultural box scheme attributes, and make a suggestion for business revival. We estimate the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for box scheme attributes using a choice experiment. Attributes include the bundle method, the delivery method, and price. To select an efficient model for statistical analysis, we evaluate the conditional logit model, heteroscedastic extreme value model(HEV model), multinomial probit model, and mixed logit model under different assumptions. The results of these four models show that the bundle method, the delivery method, and price are statistically significant in explaining the probability of participation in a box scheme. The results of likelihood ratio tests show that the heteroscedastic extreme value model is the most appropriate for our survey data. The results also indicate that MWTP for a change from fixed type to selection type is KRW 7,096.6. MWTP for a change from parcel service to direct delivery and cold-chain delivery are KRW 3,497.5 and KRW 7,532.7, respectively. The results of this study may contribute to the government's local food policies.

An Integrated Model based on Genetic Algorithms for Implementing Cost-Effective Intelligent Intrusion Detection Systems (비용효율적 지능형 침입탐지시스템 구현을 위한 유전자 알고리즘 기반 통합 모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Kim, Ji-Hun;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2012
  • These days, the malicious attacks and hacks on the networked systems are dramatically increasing, and the patterns of them are changing rapidly. Consequently, it becomes more important to appropriately handle these malicious attacks and hacks, and there exist sufficient interests and demand in effective network security systems just like intrusion detection systems. Intrusion detection systems are the network security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. Conventional intrusion detection systems have generally been designed using the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. However, they cannot handle new or unknown patterns of the network attacks, although they perform very well under the normal situation. As a result, recent studies on intrusion detection systems use artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. For a long time, researchers have adopted and tested various kinds of artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines to detect intrusions on the network. However, most of them have just applied these techniques singularly, even though combining the techniques may lead to better detection. With this reason, we propose a new integrated model for intrusion detection. Our model is designed to combine prediction results of four different binary classification models-logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and support vector machines (SVM), which may be complementary to each other. As a tool for finding optimal combining weights, genetic algorithms (GA) are used. Our proposed model is designed to be built in two steps. At the first step, the optimal integration model whose prediction error (i.e. erroneous classification rate) is the least is generated. After that, in the second step, it explores the optimal classification threshold for determining intrusions, which minimizes the total misclassification cost. To calculate the total misclassification cost of intrusion detection system, we need to understand its asymmetric error cost scheme. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, total misclassification cost is more affected by FNE rather than FPE. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 10,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. Also, we compared the results from our model with the results from single techniques to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell R4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on GA outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that the proposed model outperformed all the other comparative models in the total misclassification cost perspective. Consequently, it is expected that our study may contribute to build cost-effective intelligent intrusion detection systems.

Hurdle Model for Longitudinal Zero-Inflated Count Data Analysis (영과잉 경시적 가산자료 분석을 위한 허들모형)

  • Jin, Iktae;Lee, Keunbaik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.923-932
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    • 2014
  • The Hurdle model can to analyze zero-inflated count data. This model is a mixed model of the logit model for a binary component and a truncated Poisson model of a truncated count component. We propose a new hurdle model with a general heterogeneous random effects covariance matrix to analyze longitudinal zero-inflated count data using modified Cholesky decomposition. This decomposition factors the random effects covariance matrix into generalized autoregressive parameters and innovation variance. The parameters are modeled using (generalized) linear models and estimated with a Bayesian method. We use these methods to carefully analyze a real dataset.

Modeling for Prediction of Potato Late Blight (Phytophthora infestans) (감자역병 진전도 예측모형 작성)

  • 안재훈;함영일;신관용
    • Korean Journal Plant Pathology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.331-338
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    • 1998
  • To develop the model for prediction of potato late blight progress, the relationship between severity index of potato late blight transformed by the logit and Gompit transformation function and cumulative severity value (CSV) processing weather data during growing period in Taegwallyeong alpine area, 1975 to 1992 were examined. When logistic model and Gompertz model were compared by determining goodness of fit for progressive degree of late blight using CSV as independent variable, the coefficients of determination were higher as 0.742 in the logistic model than 0.680 in the Gompertz model. Parameters in logistic model were composed of progressive rate and initial value of logistic model. Initial value was calculated in -3.664. The progressive rate of potato late blight was 0.137 in cv. Superior, 0.136 in cv. Irish Cobbler, and 0.070 in cv. Jopung without fungicide sprays. According to in crease of the number of spray times the progressive rate was lowered, was 0.020 in cv. Superior under the conventional program of fungicide sprays, 10 times sprays during cropping season. Equation of progressive rate, b1=0.0088 ACSV-0.033 (R2=0.976), was written by examining the relationship between the parameters of progressive rate of late blight and the average CSV (ACSV) quantifing weather information. By estimating parameters of logistic function, model able to describe the late blight progress of potato, cv. Superior was formulated in Y=4/(1+39.0·exp((0.0088 ACSV-0.033)·CSV).

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A Study on Commercial Power of Traditional Market

  • Baik, Key-Young;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2016
  • This study investigated commercial power theory of traditional market through the analysis of literature review. Consumers' store selection models are made up a theory based on normative hypothesis, theory of mutual reaction, utility function estimation model, and cognitive-behavioral model. Detailed models are as follows. Normative hypothesis based theory is divided into Reilly's retail gratification theory and Converse's revised retail g ratification theory. Interaction theory is composed of Huff's probability gratification theory, MCI model and Multi-nominal Logit Model (MNL model). There are four models in retail organization position theory such as central place theories, single store position theory, multi store position - assign model, and retail growth potential model. In case of single store position theory, theoretical and empirical techniques have developed for a decision to optimum single store position. Those are like these, a check list, the most simple and systematic method, analogy, and microanalysis technique. Aforementioned models are theoretical and mathematical commercial power measurement and/or model. The study has rather limitations because the variation factors included in formula are only a part of actual commercial power. Therefore, further study shall be made continuously to commercial power areas and variables.

Modeling for Prediction of the Turnip Mosaic Virus (TuMV) Progress of Chinese Cabbage (배추 순무모자이크바이러스(TuMV)병 진전도 예측모형식 작성)

  • 안재훈;함영일
    • Korean Journal Plant Pathology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 1998
  • To develop a model for prediction of turnip mosaic virus(TuMV) disease progress of Chinese cabbage based on weather information and number of TuMV vector aphids trapped in Taegwallyeong alpine area, data were statistically processed together. As the variables influenced on TuMV disease progress, cumulative portion(CPT) above 13$^{\circ}C$ in daily average temperature was the most significant, and solar radiation, duration of sunshine, vector aphids and cumulative temperature above $0^{\circ}C$ were significant. When logistic model and Gompertz model were compared by detemining goodness of fit for TuMV disease progress using CPT as independent variable, regression coefficient was higher in the logistic model than in the Gompertz model. Epidemic parameters, apparent infection rate and initial value of logistic model, were estimated by examining the relationship between disease proportion linearized by logit transformation equation, In(Y/Yf-Y) and CPT. Models able to describe the progression of TuMV disease were formulated in Y=100/(1+128.4 exp(-0.013.CPT.(-1(1/(1+66.7.exp(-0.11.day). Calculated disease progress from the model was in good agreement with investigated actual disease progress showing high significance of the coefficient of determination with 0.710.

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Model Specification and Estimation Method for Traveler's Mode Choice Behavior in Pusan Metropolitan Area (부산광역권 교통수단선택모형의 정립과 모수추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ik-Ki;Kim, Kang-Soo;Kim, Hyoung-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.7-19
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    • 2005
  • Mode choice Analysis is essential analysis stage in transportation demand forecasting process. Therefore, methods for calibration and forecasting of mode choice model in aspect of practical view need to be discussed in depth. Since 1980s, choice models, especially Logit model, are spread widely and rapidly over academic area, research institutes and consulting firms in Korea like other developed countries in the world. However, the process of calibration and parameter estimation for practical application was not clearly explained in previous papers and reports. This study tried to explain clearly the calibration process of mode choice step by step and suggested a forecasting mode choice model that can be applicable in real policy analysis by using household survey data of Pusan metropolitan are. The study also suggested a way of estimating attributes which was not observed during the household survey commonly such as travel time and cost of unchosen alternative modes. The study summarized the statistical results of model specification for four different Logit models as a process to upgrade model capability of explanation for real traveler's choice behaviors. By using the analysis results, it also calculated the value of travel time and compared them with the values of other previous studies to test reliability of the estimated model.

Toward Stochastic Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model: Development and Application Experiences (Stochastic Dynamic Assignment 모형의 개발과 활용)

  • 이인원;정란희
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.67-86
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    • 1993
  • A formulation of dynamic traffic assignment between multiple origins and single destination was first introduced in 1987 by Merchant and Nemhauser, and then expanded for multiple destination in the late 1980's (Carey, 1987). Based on behavioral choice theory which provides proper demand elasticities with respect to changes in policy variables, traffic phenomena can be analysed more realistically, especially in peak periods. However, algorithms for these models are not well developed so far(working with only small toy network) and solutions of these models are not unique. In this paper, a new model is developed which keeps the simplicity of static models, but provides the sensitivity of dynamic models with changes of O-D flows over time. It can be viewed as a joint departure time and route choice model, in the given time periods(6-7, 7-8, 8-9 and 9-10 am). Standard multinomial logit model has been used for simulating the choice behavior of destination, mode, route and departure time within a framework of the incremental network assignment model. The model developed is workable in a PC 386 with 175 traffic zones and 3581 links of Seoul and tested for evaluating the exclusive use of Namsan tunnel for HOV and the left-turn prohibition. Model's performance results and their statistical significance are also presented.

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Developing a Quantitative Evaluation Model for Screening the Research Grant Applications (연구지원 대상자 선정을 위한 정량평가 모형개발)

  • Yoo, Jin-Man;Han, In-Soo;Oh, Keun-Yeob
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.541-549
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    • 2017
  • This research investigates the quantitative screening methods for the Grant Funding system and seeks for the efficient evaluation of a number of proposals. We search foreign cases of Grand Funding, but we found no appropriate model for using in Korea. Thus, we had to develope our own model for better screening. First, we analyse the existing evaluation system and find some problems and challenges. Second, we suggest a quantitative screening system for Grant Funding with a numeric model, and operates a tedious simulation by using the previous data and our suggested model. Third, we test the suggested model and find the optimal model by using simulation method The number of data analysed for simulation is larger than 200 thousands. Last, we suggest some brief policy implications based on the results in the paper.

Solution Algorithms for Logit Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Model (확률적 로짓 통행배정모형의 해석 알고리듬)

  • 임용택
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2003
  • Because the basic assumptions of deterministic user equilibrium assignment that all network users have perfect information of network condition and determine their routes without errors are known to be unrealistic, several stochastic assignment models have been proposed to relax this assumption. However. it is not easy to solve such stochastic assignment models due to the probability distribution they assume. Also. in order to avoid all path enumeration they restrict the number of feasible path set, thereby they can not preciously explain the travel behavior when the travel cost is varied in a network loading step. Another problem of the stochastic assignment models is stemmed from that they use heuristic approach in attaining optimal moving size, due to the difficulty for evaluation of their objective function. This paper presents a logit-based stochastic assignment model and its solution algorithm to cope with the problems above. We also provide a stochastic user equilibrium condition of the model. The model is based on path where all feasible paths are enumerated in advance. This kind of method needs a more computing demand for running the model compared to the link-based one. However, there are same advantages. It could describe the travel behavior more exactly, and too much computing time does not require than we expect, because we calculate the path set only one time in initial step Two numerical examples are also given in order to assess the model and to compare it with other methods.