• Title/Summary/Keyword: Logit model

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An Analysis of Multiple-Vehicle Accidents on Freeways Using Multinomial Logit Model (다항로짓모형을 이용한 고속도로 다중추돌사고 특성 분석)

  • Jeon, Hyeonmyeong;Kim, Jinhee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to analyze effects of factors on the number of vehicles involved in traffic accidents on freeway sections. In previous studies about traffic accident severity, the analysis of accidents involving multiple vehicles was insufficient. However, multiple-vehicle accidents are likely to cause casualties and are the main reasons increasing accident duration and social costs. In this study, the number of vehicles involved in an accident was interpreted as the result of the accident, not as the cause of the accident, and the impacts of each accident factor were analyzed using a multinomial logit model. The results indicate that multiple-vehicle accidents are mainly related to following factors: nighttime, driver's faults, obstacles on the road, a downhill slope, heavy vehicles, and freeway mainline sections including tunnels and bridges.

Network Theory Based Empirical Studies on the Factors Affecting Global Liners' Port Selection : Focused on Major Trade Port in Korea and China (Network 관점에서 본 글로벌해운선사의 항만선택 결정요인에 관한 연구 - 한국과 중국의 주요 무역항만을 대상으로 -)

  • Jang, Heung-Hoon;Han, Byoung-Sop
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2009
  • Transportation decisions of ship liners are crucial for policy formulation in ports and shipping lines. Ship liners' port selection depends on the location characteristic of port. With network theory based, we empirically investigated determinants of global ship liners' port selection focused on major trade ports in China and Korea during 1995-2007. We present a detailed discussion on the related literatures about port selection, and develop hypothesis using network-based view. With conditional logit model, empirical results show that global liners select globally positioned ports rather than domestic oriented ones. Global ship liners select ports which have intra national network centrality, global ship network centrality and global network linkage.

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A Study on the Determinants of Migration Types of the Youth in Non-metropolitan Areas by using a Hierarchical Logit Model (위계로짓모형을 활용한 비수도권 청년층의 이주유형별 결정요인 비교분석)

  • Hansoun Woo
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.421-442
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    • 2023
  • This research focuses on the fact that the characteristics of migration types of the youth in non-metropolitan areas vary by region and has the primary objective of comparing and analyzing the differences in determinants of each migration type. First, An exploratory analysis of the migration status and characteristics of the youth in non-metropolitan areas was conducted, and then a hierarchical logit model was used to estimate the determinants of migration types separately. The results showed that the characteristics of migration types vary by region, and each determinant of migration types is composed of different bundles of variables(individual and regional levels). In the future, policies aimed at securing young workforce in non-metropolitan areas will be more effective when they take into account various determinants of migration choices and reflect the regional context.

Factors Influencing on the Perception of Helpfulness of Marking the Country of Origin in Predicting the Quality and Safety of Pork (돼지고기 원산지 표시의 도움에 대한 지각도에 미치는 영향 요인 평가)

  • Lee, Seong-Hee;Kang, Jong-Heon
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.12 no.3 s.30
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to measure the factors influencing on the perception of helpfulness of marking the country of origin in predicting the quality and safety of pork. A total of 239 questionnaires were completed. A multinomial logit model is specified in order to estimate which factors influence the probability that a consumer perceives the country of origin as helpful in assessing food quality and food safety. The estimations were carried out using the logistic procedure of SAS. The results are as follows. The proportional odds assumptions of models were not violated at p<0.05. The effects of age, income, children, occupation and respondents informed on the importance of the country of origin in pork quality model were statistically significant. The effects of age, children, occupation and trust on the importance of the country of origin in pork safety model were statistically significant. The results from this study could be useful in developing marketing and health promotion strategies as well as government trade policies.

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Locational Characteristics and Shrinking Prediction of Rice Paddy Fields in South Korea (우리나라 논의 지리적 입지특성과 축소지역 예측)

  • Kim, Hyun-Joong;Chung, IL-Hoon
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the location characteristics of the rice paddy fields and to predict shrinking areas of them. The study area is in South Korea nationwide, and a 300×300m raster level is adopted as a spatial analysis unit. The binary logit model and spatial simulation model are employed for the analyses. As a result, population, industry, climate and nature, and accessibility play a significant role in determining rice paddy fields' locations. It is predicted that the shrinking rate will be high in Gangwon-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and Gyeongsangnam-do until 2027. The hot spots are intensively shaped in the inland of Gangwon-do, eastern parts of Gyeonggi-do, and the borders of Gyeongsangnam-do and Jeollabuk-do between Charyeong and Sobaek mountain ranges. Using Gimcheon-si as an example, the study suggests fundamental policy implications for taking advantage of the simulation results from the lens of local agriculture. Several policy measures are proposed for improving management strategies for the rice paddy fields in the long run.

A Genetic Algorithm for Trip Distribution and Traffic Assignment from Traffic Counts in a Stochastic User Equilibrium

  • Sung, Ki-Seok;Rakha, Hesham
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.51-69
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    • 2009
  • A network model and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) is proposed to solve the simultaneous estimation of the trip distribution and traffic assignment from traffic counts in the congested networks in a logit-based Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE). The model is formulated as a problem of minimizing a non-linear objective function with the linear constraints. In the model, the flow-conservation constraints are utilized to restrict the solution space and to force the link flows become consistent to the traffic counts. The objective of the model is to minimize the discrepancies between two sets of link flows. One is the set of link flows satisfying the constraints of flow-conservation, trip production from origin, trip attraction to destination and traffic counts at observed links. The other is the set of link flows those are estimated through the trip distribution and traffic assignment using the path flow estimator in the logit-based SUE. In the proposed GA, a chromosome is defined as a real vector representing a set of Origin-Destination Matrix (ODM), link flows and route-choice dispersion coefficient. Each chromosome is evaluated by the corresponding discrepancies. The population of the chromosome is evolved by the concurrent simplex crossover and random mutation. To maintain the feasibility of solutions, a bounded vector shipment technique is used during the crossover and mutation.

Development of the Prediction Method for Hospital Bankruptcy using a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model(HGIM) (HGLM을 적용한 병원 도산 예측방법의 개발)

  • Noh, Maeng-Seok;Chang, Hye-Jung;Lee, Young-Jo
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.22-36
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    • 2001
  • The hospital bankruptcy rate is increasing, therefore it is very important to predict the bankruptcy using the existing hospital management information. The hospital bankruptcy is often measured in year intervals, called grouped duration data, not by the continuous time elapsed to the bankruptcy. This study introduces a hierarchical generalized linear model(HGLM) for analysis of hospital bankruptcy data. The hazard function for each hospital may be influenced by unobservable latent variables, and these unknown variables are usually termed as random effects or frailties which explain correlations among repeated measures of the same hospital and describe individual heterogeneities of hospitals. Practically, the data of twenty bankrupt and sixty profitable hospitals were collected for five years, and were fitted to HGLM. The results were compared with those of the logit model. While the logit model resulted only in the effects of explanatory variables on the bankruptcy status at specific period, the HGLM showed variables with significant effects over all observed years. It is concluded that the HGLM with a fixed ratio and a period of total asset turnrounds was justified, and could find significant within and between hospital variations.

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Analysis on Preceding Study of Consumer's Store-Choice Model: Focusing on Commercial Sphere Analysis Theories

  • Quan, Zhi-Xuan;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - There are numerous theories for retail trade area analysis which are designed to select candidate locations for new stores. In this study, comparative analysis on the characteristics from those of the theories are shown, and the explanation for the power in consumers' store-choice behaviors and their limitations are examined. Also, plans for improving commercial sphere analysis are explored. Research design, data, and methodology - This study is based on literature reviews with normative research methodology. Among many researches regarding the analysis on the location and commercial sphere for launching a new store, researches relying on statistics are excluded in this study since they belong to the marketing research area,. Results - In the Law of retail gravitation, Huff's model multinomial logit model and etc. are mutual complementary mathematical techniques for analyzing commercial spheres and each of them has its own characteristics. These theories rely on the same hypothesis in which consumers are all believed to be behaving rationally under a similar behavioral system. However, the trial in explaining or estimating behavior of choosing a store with only a select size of the population that is objectively estimated by some major properties has limits in its credibility. Conclusion - Research on consumer's spatial behaviors can be fully illustrative and explainable when it has both quantitative approaches such as 'law of retail gravitation', 'logit model' and etc., and qualitative approaches like consumer's 'cognitive structure', 'learning status', 'image formation', 'attitude' and etc.

A Comparative Study on Factors Affecting Housing Satisfaction of Elderly and Non-Elderly Households (고령가구와 비고령가구의 주거만족도 영향요인 비교연구)

  • Lee, DongSung
    • Journal of Urban Science
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the factors affecting the housing satisfaction of elderly households in comparison with non-elderly households, and to present policy implications in terms of housing welfare policies. For this purpose, this study used ordered logit model analysis using '2019 Housing survey data'. As a result of the analysis, in the case of individual/housing characteristics, the analysis results of the non-elderly household model and the elderly household model were similar. However, in the case of regional characteristics, non-elderly households living in the metropolitan area showed higher housing satisfaction than non-elderly households living in the non-metropolitan area, whereas the elderly households living in the metropolitan area had lower housing satisfaction than the elderly households living in the non-metropolitan area. In addition, the satisfaction variable of neighborhood/environmental characteristics that had the greatest impact on the housing satisfaction of non-elderly households was found to be crime prevention status satisfaction, and the satisfaction variable of neighborhood/environmental characteristics that had the greatest impact on the housing satisfaction of elderly households was air pollution satisfaction. The results of the analysis can be used as various reference materials when establishing housing welfare policies for elderly households.

Assessment of the Willingness to Pay for Forest Management in the Upstream for Water Quality Improvement within the Han River Watershed (수질개선을 위한 한강 수계 상류지역 산림관리 지불의사금액 추정)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Chul-Sang;Lee, Ho-Sang;Park, Kyung-Seok;Mun, Ji-Min;Jeon, Hyon-Sun
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.49-72
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    • 2015
  • Forests in the upstream contributed to improve the quality of water resources for the residents downstream. However, upon structural examination of how the Han River Watershed Management Fund was spent, it became apparent that the fund was not spent toward forest management in the upstream. An additional budget must be allocated if the Watershed Management Committee is to contribute to the management of the upstream forests with such awareness. Therefore, the aim of the study was to assess the willingness to pay and to calculate of budget for forest management in the upstream for water quality improvement. Three hundred surveys on watershed beneficiaries were conducted using biased sampling method. The result was analyzed with conditional logit model and mixed logit model. Forest management, a target variable, was found to have statistical significance. Based on this result, the size of the expected budget was estimated to be minimum 20,526 million won to maximum 20,928 million won.

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