• Title/Summary/Keyword: Logit

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Disaggregate Demand Forecasting and Estimation of the Optimal Price for VTIS (부가교통정보시스템(VTIS) 이용수요예측 및 적정이용료 산정에 관한 연구)

  • 정헌영;진재업;손태민
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2002
  • VTIS(Value-added Traffic Information System), among the sub-systems of ATIS, is an Advanced Traffic System which innovates efficiency and safety. And this system, having marketability and publicness, is very important. Moreover, This system offers definite traffic information according to the demand of specified users. And it is expected to produce additional spread effects because of high participation rate of private sector. However, the VTIS service media are varied and there are varied optimal Prices and payment methods according to each medium. Because of that, there needs the study on these problems or optimal criteria. But because existing studies were devoted to estimate the optimal route, the study toward the optimal price which was considered part of user and service use demand do not exist. Accordingly, we surveyed under imaginary alternative pricing scenarios and forecasted the use demand of VTIS by using Binary Logit model. Also, for the users who answered that they would use VTIS service in survey, we classified their use's behaviors as four categories and estimated the use ratio to each category by using Ordered Probit model. Last, using sensitivity analysis for results form above, we derived the optimal price that is 2800won in monthly. 145won in payment per call. Then, VTIS service use rate is respectively 65%, 75%.

A Study on the Perception Difference of the Farm-Closure Assistance Program by Local Government Officials' Characteristics (지자체 공무원 특성에 따른 폐업지원제도 인식 차이 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Keun;Chai, Sang-Hyen;Choi, Mira
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.406-414
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    • 2020
  • The Farm-Closure Assistance (FCA) program is operated to compensate for lost farm income, to stabilize the management of low-competitive farms, and to enhance competitiveness of target items. The FCA, however, has several problems, such as the balloon effect and fraudulent receipts. Therefore, it is important to examine the operational problems of the FCA, establish improvement plans, and settle the measures. The objectives of this study are to analyze problems and suggest solutions for FCA, reflecting the viewpoints of local government officials who are in charge of actual tasks on the FCA front lines. The study analyzes whether characteristics of government officials lead to differences in setting the maximum amounts and extensions to FCA. Factors influencing the necessity of setting ceilings on FCA were work experience, recognition of agriculture's importance, and the FTA's impact on domestic agriculture, gender, and regions. Factors affecting the extension of FCA were the agency unit, work experience on the FTA, recognition of the effects of FTA direct payments and FCA, and recognition of the subsidy's direction. The results can be employed as a fundamental background that can set the direction for institutional improvement when the government tries to improve FCA.

An Empirical Study on Ssuccessful Crowdfunding (크라우드펀딩 성공을 위한 실증분석)

  • Choi, Sukwoong;Lee, Doo Yeon;Kim, Wonjoon;Kang, Jae Won
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2017
  • Crowdfunding recently receives a great deal of attentions as an alternative finance for small and medium-sized enterprises or business ventures that suffer from financial constraints. Crowdfunding is a new form of platform that enables a large number of people to invest a small amount of money for promising new business items directly. We analyzed the effect of type, period, method of projects on crowdfunding outcomes. We measure the outcome in terms of the ratio of the collected to the target amount. We collected data from three Korean crowdfunding platform companies, and the data consisted of 239 projects from 2012 to 2014. We use both logit and ordinary least square method for evaluation. Generally, the amount of target itself has no effect on the outcome. Equity crowdfunding shows higher success rate and better outcome than rewards crowdfunding. All or Nothing method leads to the higher ratio of the collected to the target amount than Keep It All. There is an inverted U-shape between the number of investors and the ratio of the collected to the target amount. Finally, the ratio of the collected to the target amount is decreasing in a crowdfunding period.

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How Do Firms' Innovation Behaviors Affect their Outputs in Korea? (기업의 혁신 활동이 기업성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Jae-Min;Lee, Jung-Mann
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.339-350
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    • 2011
  • This study empirically investigates applicable possibility of open technology innovation with which the government is concerned, by figuring out the relationship between firms' innovation behaviors and innovation outputs and their utilization of information network. Empirical methodology was employed as logit regression to explain firms' innovation behaviors and the data set includes more than 2500 firms in the manufacturing sectors. First, empirical findings showed that firms' innovation competencies and behaviors can be explained as the trend of patent application, sales and innovation outputs significantly. The patents of small and medium-sized businesses are inclined to be positive to information sources of university and government-supported research institute and the sales increased when they had labs to concentrate on R&D. On the other hand, the existence of labor union turn out to be negative to their sales. Second, the types of information network which firms utilize turned out to be connected with their innovation behaviors and purposes. Third, four types of innovation, i.e., product, process, organization, and marketing innovation was employed and innovation behaviors and outputs are well connected.

Study on the Effect of Labor Unions on Job Stability - Oaxaca Non-linear Decomposition of Probit-Logit - (노동조합이 고용안정에 미치는 효과에 관한 연구 - 프로빗-로짓의 Oaxaca 비선형분해 -)

  • Cho, Dong Hun;Cho, Joonmo
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.43-75
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    • 2007
  • This study reviews the trend of job separation rates for three years from 2002 to 2005 and investigates the various elements which influence this trend, especially the role of the labor unions, by using Korean Labor Panel data. In the basic statistics, the job retention rate of union members were higher by an average of 28.3% points compared to non-union members, but in the results of controlling the observed variables of individual influences in changing jobs, it was estimated that unions increase the job retention rate by 11% to 13% points. To investigate the effect of unions on the job stability of workers in detail, the non-linear decomposition method developed by Fairlie (2003) was used in the analysis. In examining the difference of job separation rates between union members and non-union members through observed variables of workers in explainable parts and unexplainable parts by using the non-linear decomposition technique, the contribution of the explainable part was estimated to be 67% to 74% and the unexplainable part accounted for the rest which was 26% to 33%. This suggests that not only does the union contribute to the job stability of its members, but the propensity to change jobs for a worker who is a union member is on average lower than that of a worker who is not a union member or who works at an establishment that does not have a union. The results of the empirical analysis show that the job stability effect of labor unions is limited within the boundary of a maximum 7% to 9% points. The reason for the effect of labor unions on job stability being so low is due to various reasons such as collective bargaining structure by company, intensified business competition after the financial crisis, and labor market segmentation.

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Demand analysis on new Mobile Telecommunication Terminal using Conjoint analysis and Mixed logit (컨조인트 분석과 혼합 로짓 모형을 이용한 차세대 무선 이동 통신 단말기의 수요 분석)

  • 김연배;이정동;고대영
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.67-85
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    • 2003
  • 본 논문에서는 최근 통신 산업에서 중요한 쟁점으로 떠오르고 있는 단말기 무선이동 통신 단말기의 발전 방향을 소비자 선호에 기반하여 살펴보았다. 소비자 선호 정보를 얻기 위하여 컨조인트(conjoint) 분석 방법이 사용되었다. 컨조인트 방법은 가상의 대안들에 대한 응답자의 진술 선호에 기반을 두기 때문에 미래의 무선 이동통신 단말기에 대해 분석하는데 적합한 방법이다. 컨조인트 방법을 위한 설문은 대한민국 서울에서 445 명의 성인남녀를 대상으로 행해졌다. 소비자의 이질적인 선호를 알기 위해 혼합 로짓(mixed legit) 모형을 사용하였다. 추정은 최근 새로운 시뮬레이션 기법으로 떠오르고 있는 베이지안(Bayesian) 방법을 이용하였다. 선호의 분포 가정으로 기존의 일관적인 정규 분포 가정과 달리 가격 계수를 위하여 로그 정규(lognormal) 분포, 하이퀄리티 인터넷 특성과 PC 프로그램 호환 가능 여부의 계수들에 대해서 잘린 정규(censored normal) 분포를 가정 하였다. 추정 결과 무선 이동 통신 단말기의 각 속성들에 대한 응답자들간 선호가 크게 차이 나는 것을 알 수 있었다. 화면 크기의 경우에는 대부분의 소비자들이 현재 일반적인 핸드폰보다는 큰 화면을 선호한다는 것과 휴대성을 상당히 고려한다는 것을 간접적으로 알 수 있었다. 또한, 소비자들이 무선 이동 통신 단말기가 휴대 인터넷과 PC 프로그램 호환이 가능한지 여부에는 대부분 무관심하다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 본 논문의 결과는 차세대 무선 이동 통신 단말기의 속성 조합 시 고려해야 할 점과 휴대 인터넷 서비스의 방향에 대해 시사점을 줄 수 있을 것이다.각 73.44±0.87%, 72.88±0.25%의 함량이였다. 운동사육시간이 길어질수록 운동사육구에서는 수분함량이 운동5일째에는 73.56±0.22%였으며, 운동 20일에는 75.88±0.94%로 초기수분함량보다는 3%정도 증가하였다. 반면, 비운동사육구에서는 큰 변화를 나타내고 있지 않았다(p<0.05). 운동과 비운동시킨 참돔의 지질 함량의 변화는 운동시킨 참돔은 운동으로 인한 에너지 소비로 인하여 함량이 유의적으로 감소했으며(r=-0.35), 비운동사육구에서는 절식으로 인하여 지질함량이 감소하였다(r=-0.38). 파괴강도와 가장 밀접한 영향을 가지는 콜라겐은 운동과 비운동 모두 사육기간동안 큰 변화는 보이지 않았다. 초기의 파괴강도값은 1.45±0.02kg(운동사육구), 1.36±0.18kg(비운동사육구)이였으며 사육기간동안 운동사육구는 파괴강도값이 증가한 반면, 비운동수조에서는 참돔의 파괴강도는 사육기간동안 큰 유의차가 없었다. 각 성분간의 상관도를 살펴보면, 수분함량과 파괴강도는 상관성을 가졌으며, 지질함량과 파괴강도도 같은 경향은 나타내었다. 운동기간동안의 파괴강도와 콜라겐 사이에는 상관성의 거의 없었다. 이는 운동기간에 따른 파괴강도의 증가가 콜라겐의 함량의 증가보다는 지질함량의 감소와 수분함량의 증가와 같은 성분과의 상관성이 크다고 판단된다. 다음으로는, 운동횟수에 의한 영향으로써 운동시간을 1일 6시간으로 설정하여, 운동횟수를 결정하기 위하여 오전, 오후에 각 3시간씩 운동시키는 방법과 오전부터 6시간동안 운동시키는 두 방법을 이용하여 품질을 비교하였다. 각 조건에 따라 운동시킨 참돔의 수분함량을 나타낸 것으로, 2회(오전

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Estimating Farmers' Willingness to Cultivate Genetically Modified Rice and Grass for Feed in Korea (농업인의 사료용 유전자변형 작물 재배 의사 추정)

  • Kim, Seung Gyu;Ryu, Jin;Jung, Jae-Won;Sung, Myung-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Kyun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.303-308
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    • 2015
  • Cultivating genetically modified (GM) crops is believed to be a practical solution to meet the increasing food demand, but GM crops are not legal in Korea mainly due to food safety issues. Even though the general public might not be ready to consume GM food, GM crops are imported and consumed as food and feed. To analyze farmers's willingness to grow GM crops for feed, a survey was conducted among crop farmers and 640 valid responses were collected by mail. In the questionnaire, the farmers were asked to select either 'yes' or 'no' if they were willing or not willing to cultivate GM rice and GM grass, respectively, under the given hypothetical income increase rate (i.e., 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, or 70%). Logit regression was used to estimate the two dichotomous choices by explanatory variables including hypothetical income increase rate. The results show that farmers are willing to cultivate GM rice and grass when their income is expected to increase by 47% and 43%, respectively.

Stop-start wave condition에서 연속류 모델의 개발 -단속연속류 모델에 유한한 가속도를 도입하는 방법-

  • 박지영;박창호
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1998.10b
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    • pp.295-295
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    • 1998
  • 고속도로에서 교통류의 특성에 파악하여 교통류의 특성을 파악하여 동적행태로 교통상황을 분석하고 효과적인 제어전략, 시뮬레이션, 그리고 기하구조 개선등의 효율적이고 실용적인 적용을 위해서는 교통류의 정확한 모사가 필요하다. 시공간으로 표현되는 상태방정식을 포함하는 거시적 시뮬레이션 모델에 사용되는 연속류 모델은 이러한 교통류 특성을 모사하는데 적절하다. Lighthill과 Whitham(1955), Richard(1956)에 의해 일계도함수의 형태를 가지는 단순모델이 제시된 이후 모델의 결점을 보완하기 위해 많은 고계도 모델이 제시되었지만 고계도 모델이 가진 이론적인 결점에 대해서는 여러 연구들이 제시되어 있다. 또한 고계도 모델은 운동량 방정식의 유도, 정산, 구현의 어려움으로 널리 사용되기 힘들다는 단점을 가지고 있다. 만일 적절히 구현할 수 있다면 적용이 간단한 단순모델로도 보다 정확한 교통류 상황 모사가 가능하다. Ansorge는 혼잡교통류상황을 보다 정확하게 모사하기 위해 단순모델에 엔트로피 조건을 결합시킨 모델을 제시했다. Bui는 이 제안된 모델이 적절한 시뮬레이션 결과를 나타낸다는 것을 밝혔다. 그러나 이 모델은 차량의 재가속이 이루어지는 교통상황-stop-start wave의 경우 비현실적인 값을 가진다. 엔트로피조건에 의해 구해진 해는 실제보다 과다한 교통량을 추정하게 되는데 이런 결과는 위와 같은 교통상황에서 중요한 요소로 작용하는 가속효과가 무시되고 있기 때문이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 stop-start wave 조건에서 가속도에 경계치를 부여하여 교통류율을 상한경계조건을 제시함으로써 교통상황에 맞는 교통류율을 산정하는 방법에 대해 제안하고자 한다.환승이라는 특정대안변수(Specific alternative variable)를 첨가하여 그것이 수단선택에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 또한, 대중교통의 속성을 가지고 있는 지하철과 버스를 하나의 대안으로 묶어서 효용함수를 구한 다음 다시 승용차, 택시, 대중교통을 독립된 대안으로 두고 모형을 정립하는 NESTED LOGIT모형으로 파라메타를 추정하여 대중교통의 효용에 관해 분석·비교하였다. 본 논문에 이용된 자료는 공항을 이용하는 이용객들을 대상으로 직접 설문·면접조사한 자료이며 대상 교통수단은 승용차, 택시, 지하철, 버스로 설정하였다. 결과 적응형 알고리즘이 개개인의 최단시간 경로를 제공하는 사용자 평형 경로안내전략에 비해 교통혼잡도와 정체시간의 체류정도에 따라 3%에서 10%까지 전체통행시간을 절약할 수 있다는 결론을 얻었다.출발참, 구성대외개방선면축심, 실현국제항선적함접화국내항반적전항, 형성다축심복사식항선망; 가강기장건설, 개피포동제이국제기장건설, 괄응포동개발경제발전적수요. 부화개시일은 각 5월 26일과 5월 22일이었다. 11. 6월 중순에 애벌레를 대상으로 처리한 Phenthoate EC가 96.38%의 방제가로 약효가 가장 우수하였고 3월중순 및 4월중순 월동후 암컷을 대상으로 처리한 Machine oil, Phenthoate EC 및 Trichlorfon WP는 비교적 약효가 낮았다.>$^{\circ}$E/$\leq$30$^{\circ}$NW 단열군이 연구지역 내에서 지하수 유동성이 가장 높은 단열군으로 추정된다. 이러한 사실은 3개 시추공을 대상으로 실시한 시추공 내 물리검층과 정압주입시험에서도 확인된다.. It was result

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Development of the RP and SP Combined using Error Component Method (Error Component 방법을 이용한 RP.SP 결합모형 개발)

  • 김강수;조혜진
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2003
  • SP data have been widely used in assessing new transport policies and transport related plans. However, one of criticisms of using SP is that respondents may show different reaction between hypothetical experiments and real life. In order to overcome the problem, combination of SP and RP data has been suggested and the combined methods have been being developed. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a new SP and RP combined method using error component method and to verify the method. The error component method decomposes IID extreme value error into non-IID error component(s) and an IID error component. The method estimates both of component parameters and utility parameters in order to obtain relative variance of SP data and RP data. The artificial SP and RP data was created by using simulation and used for the analysis, and the estimation results of the error component method were compared with those of existing SP and RP combined methods. The results show that regardless of data size, the parameters of the error component method models are similar to those assumed parameters much more than those of the existing SP and RP combined models, indicating usefulness of the error component method. Also the values of time for error component method are more similar to those assumed values than those of the existing combined models. Therefore, we can conclude that the error component method is useful in combining SP and RP data and more efficient than the existing methods.

Villagers' Participation in Conservation of Village Woodlands -Two cases of Namwon City, Korea (마을숲 보전 사업에 대한 마을 주민의 참여가능성 -남원시 2개 마을의 경우)

  • Park, So-Hee;Koo, Ja-Choon;Youn, Yeo-Chang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.102 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to analyze factors affecting villagers' participation in conservation of village woodlands. We postulated that socio-economic characteristics such as gender, age, place of birth, wealth level, frequency of use and leader experience could contribute to decision-making of participation in the village woodland conservation. Data were collected by interviewing 52 villagers in village A and 41 villagers in village B and were used to estimate the probability function of villager's participation in village woodland conservation using ordered logit model. The results indicate that frequent use of village woodlands increases the probability of villagers' participation in conservation of village woodlands in the case of village A. In the case of village B, people who were born in the village and have experiences of serving the village as a village leader are more likely to participate in the village woodland conservation activities. Considering the fact that the village woodland of village A is owned by the community as a village common, and that cultural activities remain in the village woodland of village A, the utility of village woodlands to the residents and their common understanding of village woodlands seem to influence the likelihood of villagers' participation in conservation of village woodlands. In order to induce villagers' participation in the village woodland conservation, it is necessary to recognize the right of villager's access and provide villagers with common understanding of village woodlands through cultural activities and education programs.