• 제목/요약/키워드: Logistic curve

검색결과 330건 처리시간 0.026초

Comparative validity of microalbuminuria versus clinical mortality scores to predict pediatric intensive care unit outcomes

  • Nismath, Shifa;Rao, Suchetha S.;Baliga, B.S.;Kulkarni, Vaman;Rao, Gayatri M.
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • 제63권1호
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    • pp.20-24
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    • 2020
  • Background: Predicting the prognosis of patients admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) is very important in determining further management and resource allocation. The prognostication of critically ill children can be challenging; hence, accurate methods for predicting outcomes are needed. Purpose: To evaluate the role of microalbuminuria at admission as a prognostic marker in comparison to standard Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD) mortality scores in children admitted to the PICU. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted from January 2015 to October 2016. Eighty-four patients aged 1 month to 18 years admitted to the PICU of teaching hospitals for more than 24 hours were enrolled by convenience sampling method. Microalbuminuria was estimated by spot urinary albumin-creatinine ratio. PRISM and PELOD scores were calculated using an online calculator. Outcome measures were PICU length of stay, inotrope usage, multiorgan dysfunction, and survival. ACR was compared with mortality scores for predicting survival. Results: Microalbuminuria was present in 79.8% with a median value of 85 mg/g (interquartile range, 41.5-254 mg/g). A positive correlation was found between albumin-creatinine ratio and PICU length of stay (P=0.013, r=0.271). Albumin-creatinine ratio was significantly associated with organ dysfunction (P=0.004) and need for inotropes (P=0.006). Eight deaths were observed in the PICU. The area under the curve for mortality for albumin-creatinine ratio (0.822) was comparable to that for PRISM (0.928) and PELOD (0.877). Albumin-creatinine ratio >109 mg/g predicted mortality with a sensitivity of 87.5% and specificity of 63.2%. Conclusion: Microalbuminuria is a good predictor of PICU outcomes comparable with mortality scores.

The Determination and Prediction of Pine to Oak Forest Succession in Sugadaira, Central Japan

  • Jun, Kato;Hayashi, Ichiroku
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2003
  • In order to analyze the succession process from a pine forest to an oak forest, the tree growth of Pinus densiflora and Quercus mongolica ssp. crispula was monitored in a permanent quadrat for 23 years. The measurements were carried out for the stem diameter (DBH) of Pinus densiflora between 1977 and 1999 and for the height of Quercus mongolica ssp. crispula saplings between 1998 and 2000. The floristic composition and the locations of the individual P. densiflora and Q. mongolica ssp. crispula trees and saplings in the quadrat were recorded. P densiflora and Q. mongolica ssp. crispula individuals were randomly distributed within the quadrat. The relative growth rates (RGR) of DBH in P. densiflora were 0.085 $yr^{-1}$ for large trees and 0.056 $yr^{-1}$ for small trees in 1977. The RGR of height for Q. mongolica ssp. crispula was 0.122 $yr^{-1}$. The growth curve for DBH of P. densiflora was approximated by the logistic equation: $$DBH(t) = 30 {[1+1.16exp(-0.13 t)]}^{-1}$$ where DBH (t) the DBH (cm) in year t and t is the number of years since 1977. The growth in height of P. densiflora and Q. mongolica ssp. crispula was described by following equations: $$H (t) = 20.2 {[1+0.407exp(-0.137 t)]}^{-1} (P. densiflora)$$ $$H (t) = 30 {[1+20.7exp(-0.122 t)}^{-1} (Q. mongolica ssp. crispula)$$ Where H (t) is the tree height (m) in year t and t is the number of years since 1977 in P. densiflora and 1998 in Q. mongolica ssp. crispula. With these equations we predicted that the height of Q. mongolica ssp. crispula increases from 2 m in 1999 to 20 m in 2029. Therefore, Q. mongolica ssp. crispula and P. densiflora will be approximately the same height in 2029. The years required for succession from a pine forest to an oak forest are expected 33 with the range between 23 and 44 years.

Map/Reduce를 이용한 블로그 연결망 분석 시스템 설계 (The Design of Blog Network Analysis System using Map/Reduce Programming Model)

  • 조인휘;박재균
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제35권9B호
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    • pp.1259-1265
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    • 2010
  • 최근, 인터넷의 발달로 인해 온라인 사회연결망이 증가하고 있으며 이 중 블로그 서비스가 대표적이다. 본 논문에서는 블로그 연결망을 분석하기 위한 방법론을 제시하며, 대용량의 연결망 데이터를 안정적으로 분산 처리할 수 있는 방안을 제시한다. 우선, 각 연결망 데이터의 시간 경과에 따른 행위 가중치의 값을 보정하여, 최근의 행위가 과거의 행위보다 높은 연결강도를 가질 수 있도록 한다. 둘째로, 명시적으로 연결행위를 가지지 않은 블로그의 경우 블로그의 성격을 대표할 수 있는 키워드간의 유사도를 추출하여, 묵시적으로 연결망 내에 흡수하도록한다. 따라서 이전의 방법론과는 달리 더 많은 블로그 노드 간의 연결을 분석할 수 있다. 본 논문이 제시한 블로그 연결망 분석 시스템의 설계로 기존에 제시되었던 방법론보다 약 40% 더 많은 블로그 간 연결망을 추출 할 수 있음을 보였으며, 시간의 흐름에 따른 연결강도의 변화에 대한 타당성을 입증하였다.

Diagnostic accuracy of a combination of salivary hemoglobin levels, self-report questionnaires, and age in periodontitis screening

  • Maeng, You-Jin;Kim, Bo-Ra;Jung, Hoi-In;Jung, Ui-Won;Kim, Hee Eun;Kim, Baek-Il
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • 제46권1호
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study evaluated the predictive performance of a combination of self-report questionnaires, salivary hemoglobin levels, and age as a non-invasive screening method for periodontitis. Methods: The periodontitis status of 202 adults was examined using salivary hemoglobin levels, responses to 10 questions on a self-report questionnaire, and the Community Periodontal Index (CPI). The ability of those two variables and the combination thereof with age to predict the presence of CPI scores of 3-4 and 4 was assessed using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: CPI scores of 3-4 and 4 were present among 79.7% and 46.5% of the sample, respectively. The area under the ROC curves (AUROCs) of salivary hemoglobin levels for predicting prevalence of CPI scores of 3-4 and 4 were 0.63 and 0.67, respectively (with sensitivity values of 71% and 60% and specificity values of 56% and 72%, respectively). Two distinct sets of five questions were associated with CPI scores of 3-4 and 4, with AUROCs of 0.73 and 0.71, sensitivity values of 76% and 66%, and specificity values of 63% and 69%. The combined model incorporating both variables and age showed the best predictive performance, with AUROCs of 0.78 and 0.76, sensitivity values of 71% and 65%, and specificity values of 68% and 77% for CPI scores of 3-4 and 4, respectively. Conclusions: The combination of salivary hemoglobin levels and self-report questionnaires was shown to be a valuable screening method for detecting periodontitis.

Prognostic Factor Analysis for Management of Chronic Neck Pain : Can We Predict the Severity of Neck Pain with Lateral Cervical Curvature?

  • Seong, Han Yu;Lee, Moon Kyu;Jeon, Sang Ryong;Roh, Sung Woo;Rhim, Seung Chul;Park, Jin Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제60권4호
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    • pp.456-464
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    • 2017
  • Objective : Although little is known about its origins, neck pain may be related to several associated anatomical pathologies. We aimed to characterize the incidence and features of chronic neck pain and analyze the relationship between neck pain severity and its affecting factors. Methods : Between March 2012 and July 2013, we studied 216 patients with chronic neck pain. Initially, combined tramadol (37.5 mg) plus acetaminophen (325 mg) was administered orally twice daily (b.i.d.) to all patients over a 2-week period. After two weeks, patients were evaluated for neck pain during an outpatient clinic visit. If the numeric rating scale of the patient had not decreased to 5 or lower, a cervical medial branch block (MBB) was recommended after double-dosed previous medication trial. We classified all patients into two groups (mild vs. severe neck pain group), based on medication efficacy. Logistic regression tests were used to evaluate the factors associated with neck pain severity. Results : A total of 198 patients were included in the analyses, due to follow-up loss in 18 patients. While medication was successful in reducing pain in 68.2% patients with chronic neck pain, the remaining patients required cervical MBB. Lateral cervical curvature, such as a straight or sigmoid type curve, was found to be significantly associated with the severity of neck pain. Conclusion : We managed chronic neck pain with a simple pharmacological management protocol followed by MBB. We should keep in mind that it may be difficult to manage the patient with straight or sigmoid lateral curvature only with oral medication.

The Effect of Uncinate Process Resection on Subsidence Following Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion

  • Lee, Su Hun;Lee, Jun Seok;Sung, Soon Ki;Son, Dong Wuk;Lee, Sang Weon;Song, Geun Sung
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제60권5호
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    • pp.550-559
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    • 2017
  • Objective : Subsidence is a frequent complication of anterior cervical discectomy and fusion. Postoperative segmental micromotion, thought to be a causative factor of subsidence, has been speculated to increase with uncinate process resection area (UPR). To evaluate the effect of UPR on micro-motion, we designed a method to measure UPR area based on pre- and postoperative computed tomography images and analyzed the relationship between UPR and subsidence as a proxy of micro-motion. Methods : We retrospectively collected clinical and radiological data from January 2011 to June 2016. A total of 38 patients (53 segments) were included. All procedures included bilateral UPR and anterior plate fixation. UPR area was evaluated with reformatted coronal computer tomography images. To reduce level-related bias, we converted UPR area to the proportion of UPR to the pre-operative UP area (pUPR). Results : Subsidence occurred in 18 segments (34%) and positively correlated with right-side pUPR, left-side pUPR, and the sum of bilateral pUPR (sum pUPR) (R=0.310, 301, 364; p=0.024, 0.029, 0.007, respectively). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that subsidence could be estimated with the following formula : $subsidence=1.522+2.7{\times}sum\;pUPR$($R^2=0.133$, p=0.007). Receiver-operating characteristic analysis determined that sum $pUPR{\geq}0.38$ could serve as a threshold for significantly increased risk of subsidence (p=0.005, area under curve=0.737, sensitivity=94%, specificity=51%). This threshold was confirmed by logistic regression analysis for subsidence (p=0.009, odds ratio=8.471). Conclusion : The UPR measurement method confirmed that UPR was correlated with subsidence. Particularly when the sum of pUPR is ${\geq}38%$, the possibility of subsidence increased.

The history of high intensity rainfall estimation methods in New Zealand and the latest High Intensity Rainfall Design System (HIRDS.V3)

  • Horrell, Graeme;Pearson, Charles
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2011년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.16-16
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    • 2011
  • Statistics of extreme rainfall play a vital role in engineering practice from the perspective of mitigation and protection of infrastructure and human life from flooding. While flood frequency assessments, based on river flood flow data are preferred, the analysis of rainfall data is often more convenient due to the finer spatial nature of rainfall recording networks, often with longer records, and potentially more easily transferable from site to site. The rainfall frequency analysis as a design tool has developed over the years in New Zealand from Seelye's daily rainfall frequency maps in 1947 to Thompson's web based tool in 2010. This paper will present a history of the development of New Zealand rainfall frequency analysis methods, and the details of the latest method, so that comparisons may in future be made with the development of Korean methods. One of the main findings in the development of methods was new knowledge on the distribution of New Zealand rainfall extremes. The High Intensity Rainfall Design System (HIRDS.V3) method (Thompson, 2011) is based upon a regional rainfall frequency analysis with the following assumptions: $\bullet$ An "index flood" rainfall regional frequency method, using the median annual maximum rainfall as the indexing variable. $\bullet$ A regional dimensionless growth curve based on the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV), and using goodness of fit test for the GEV, Gumbel (EV1), and Generalised Logistic (GLO) distributions. $\bullet$ Mapping of median annual maximum rainfall and parameters of the regional growth curves, using thin-plate smoothing splines, a $2km\times2km$ grid, L moments statistics, 10 durations from 10 minutes to 72 hours, and a maximum Average Recurrence Interval of 100 years.

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순수 베이지안 분류기 모델을 사용하여 이상지질혈증을 예측하는 노모 그램 구축 (Nomogram building to predict dyslipidemia using a naïve Bayesian classifier model)

  • 김민호;서주현;이제영
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.619-630
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    • 2019
  • 이상지질혈증은 한국인의 대표적인 성인병이며 지속적인 관리가 필요한 만성질환이다. 또한 고혈압이나 당뇨병과 함께 심혈관계 질환의 위험 요인으로 잘 알려져 있다. 하지만 혈관 질환은 검사 없이는 질병 판단을 하기 어려운 것이 현실이다. 본 연구에서는 이상지질혈증의 인지와 예방을 위하여 관련된 위험 요인을 확인한다. 이들을 종합하여 시각화하면서 발병률 예측까지 가능한 통계적 도구 노모그램을 구축하였다. 데이터는 국민건강영양조사 6기, 7기 제1차년도 (2013-2016) 데이터를 사용하였다. 분석 순서로는 먼저 이상지질혈증의 총 12가지 위험 요인을 교차분석을 통해 확인하였다. 그리고 순수 베이지안 분류기를 이용하여 이상지질혈증에 대한 모형으로 노모그램을 구축하였다. 구축한 노모그램은 ROC 곡선과 Calibration plot을 사용하여 신뢰성을 검증하였다. 마지막으로 이전에 제시했던 로지스틱 노모그램과 본 연구에서 제안한 베이지안 노모그램을 비교하였다.

Iron deficiency anemia as a predictor of coronary artery abnormalities in Kawasaki disease

  • Kim, Sohyun;Eun, Lucy Youngmin
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • 제62권8호
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    • pp.301-306
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: Coronary artery abnormalities (CAA) are the most important complications of Kawasaki disease (KD). Iron deficiency anemia (IDA) is a prevalent micronutrient deficiency and its association with KD remains unknown. We hypothesized that presence of IDA could be a predictor of CAA. Methods: This retrospective study included 173 KD patients, divided into 2 groups according to absence (group 1) and presence (group 2) of CAA. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a logistic regression model to estimate the association between CAA and other indicators. Due to collinearity between indicators of IDA, each indicator was paired with anemia in 3 models. Results: Serum iron, iron saturation, and ferritin concentration, the 3 indicators of IDA, were significantly higher in group 1 than in group 2. Three sets of models including anemia with iron indicators produced the OR of CAA of 3.513, 3.171, and 2.256, respectively. The 3 indicators of IDA were negatively associated with CAA, by OR of 0.965, 0.914, and 0.944, respectively. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of ferritin concentration, iron saturation, serum iron, anemia, and Kobayashi score were 0.907 (95% CI, 0.851-0.963), 0.729 (95% CI, 0.648-0.810), 0.711 (95% CI, 0.629-0.793), 0.638 (95% CI, 0.545-0.731), and 0.563 (95% CI, 0.489-0.636), respectively. Conclusion: Indicators of IDA, especially ferritin, were highly associated with CAA; therefore, they were stronger predictors of CAA than Kobayashi scores. IDA indicators can be used to predict CAA development and to suggest requirements for early interventions.

Assessment of solid components of borderline ovarian tumor and stage I carcinoma: added value of combined diffusion- and perfusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging

  • Kim, See Hyung
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • 제36권3호
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    • pp.231-240
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    • 2019
  • Background: We sought to determine the value of combining diffusion-weighted (DW) and perfusion-weighted (PW) sequences with a conventional magnetic resonance (MR) sequence to assess solid components of borderline ovarian tumors (BOTs) and stage I carcinomas. Methods: Conventional, DW, and PW sequences in the tumor imaging studies of 70 patients (BOTs, n=38; stage I carcinomas, n=32) who underwent surgery with pathologic correlation were assessed. Two independent radiologists calculated the parameters apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), $K^{trans}$ (vessel permeability), and $V_e$ (cell density) for the solid components. The distribution on conventional MR sequence and mean, standard deviation, and 95% confidence interval of each DW and PW parameter were calculated. The inter-observer agreement among the two radiologists was assessed. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and multivariate logistic regression were performed to compare the effectiveness of DW and PW sequences for average values and to characterize the diagnostic performance of combined DW and PW sequences. Results: There were excellent agreements for DW and PW parameters between radiologists. The distributions of ADC, $K^{trans}$, and $V_e$ values were significantly different between BOTs and stage I carcinomas, yielding AUCs of 0.58 and 0.68, 0.78 and 0.82, and 0.70 and 0.72, respectively, with ADC yielding the lowest diagnostic performance. The AUCs of the DW, PW, and combined PW and DW sequences were $0.71{\pm}0.05$, $0.80{\pm}0.05$, and $0.85{\pm}0.05$, respectively. Conclusion: Combining PW and DW sequences to a conventional sequence potentially improves the diagnostic accuracy in the differentiation of BOTs and stage I carcinomas.