• Title/Summary/Keyword: Local Analysis and Prediction System

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Study on the Application of 2D Video Disdrometer to Develope the Polarimetric Radar Data Simulator (이중편파레이더 시뮬레이터 개발을 위한 2차원 영상우적계 관측자료의 활용가능성 연구)

  • Kim, Hae-Lim;Park, Hye-Sook;Park, Hyang Suk;Park, Jong-Seo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.173-188
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    • 2014
  • The KMA has cooperated with the Oklahoma University in USA to develop a Polarimetric Radar Data (PRD) simulator to improve the microphysical processes in Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS), which is critical for the utilization of PRD into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) field. The simulator is like a tool to convert NWP data into PRD, so it enables us to compare NWP data with PRD directly. The simulator can simulate polarimetric radar variables such as reflectivity (Z), differential reflectivity ($Z_{DR}$), specific differential phase ($K_{DP}$), and cross-correlation coefficient (${\rho}_{hv}$) with input of the Drop Size Distribution (DSD) and scattering calculation of the hydrometeors. However, the simulator is being developed based on the foreign observation data, therefore the PRD simulator development reflecting rainfall characteristics of Korea is needed. This study analyzed a potential application of the 2-Dimension Video Disdrometer (2DVD) data by calculating the raindrop axis ratio according to the rain-types to reflect Korea's rainfall characteristics into scattering module in the simulator. The 2DVD instrument measures the precipitation DSD including the fall velocity and the shape of individual raindrops. We calculated raindrop axis ratio for stratiform, convective and mixed rainfall cases after checking the accuracy of 2DVD data, which usually represent the scattering characteristics of precipitation. The raindrop axis ratio obtained from 2DVD data are compared with those from foreign database in the simulator. The calculated the dual-polarimetric radar variables from the simulator using the obtained raindrop axis ratio are also compared with in situ dual-polarimetric observation data at Bislsan (BSL). 2DVD observation data show high accuracies in the range of 0.7~4.8% compared with in situ rain gauge data which represents 2DVD data are sufficient for the use to simulator. There are small differences of axis ratio in the diameter below 1~2 mm and above 4~5 mm, which are more obvious for bigger raindrops especially for a strong convective rainfall case. These differences of raindrop axis ratio between domestic and foreign rainfall data base suggest that the potential use of disdrometer observation can develop of a PRD simulated suitable to the Korea precipitation system.

Sensitivities of WRF Simulations to the Resolution of Analysis Data and to Application of 3DVAR: A Case Study (분석자료의 분해능과 3DVAR 적용에 따른 WRF모의 민감도: 사례 연구)

  • Choi, Won;Lee, Jae Gyoo;Kim, Yu-Jin
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.387-400
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    • 2012
  • This study aims at examining the sensitivity of numerical simulations to the resolution of initial and boundary data, and to an application of WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) 3DVAR (Three Dimension Variational data Assimilation). To do this, we ran the WRF model by using GDAS (Global Data Assimilation System) FNL (Final analyses) and the KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) analyses as the WRF's initial and boundary data, and by using an initial field made by assimilating the radar data to the KLAPS analyses. For the sensitivity experiment, we selected a heavy rainfall case of 21 September 2010, where there was localized torrential rain, which was recorded as 259.5 mm precipitation in a day at Seoul. The result of the simulation using the FNL as initial and boundary data (FNL exp) showed that the localized heavy rainfall area was not accurately simulated and that the simulated amount of precipitation was about 4% of the observed accumulated precipitation. That of the simulation using KLAPS analyses as initial and boundary data (KLAPC exp) showed that the localized heavy rainfall area was simulated on the northern area of Seoul-Gyeonggi area, which renders rather difference in location, and that the simulated amount was underestimated as about 6.4% of the precipitation. Finally, that of the simulation using an initial field made by assimilating the radar data to the KLAPS using 3DVAR system (KLAP3D exp) showed that the localized heavy rainfall area was located properly on Seoul-Gyeonggi area, but still the amount itself was underestimated as about 29% of the precipitation. Even though KLAP3D exp still showed an underestimation in the precipitation, it showed the best result among them. Even if it is difficult to generalize the effect of data assimilation by one case, this study showed that the radar data assimilation can somewhat improve the accuracy of the simulated precipitation.

Gale Disaster Damage Investigation Process Provement Plan according to Correlation Analysis between Wind Speed and Damage Cost -Centering on Disaster Year Book- (풍속과 피해액 간 상관관계분석에 따른 강풍재해피해조사 프로세스 개선방안 -재해연보를 중심으로-)

  • Song, Chang Young;Yang, Byong Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.119-126
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    • 2016
  • Across the world, the industrialization has increased the frequency of climate anomaly. The size of damage due to recent natural disasters is growing large and fast, and the human damage and economic loss due to disasters are consistently increasing. Urbanization has a structure vulnerable to natural disasters. Therefore, in order to reduce damage from natural disasters, both hardware and software approaches should be utilized. Currently, however, the development of a statistical access process for 'analysis of disaster occurrence factor' and 'prediction of damage costs' for disaster prevention and overall disaster management is inadequate. In case of local governments, overall disaster management system is not established, or even if it is established, unscientific classification system and management lead to low utility of natural statistics of disaster year book. Therefore, in order to minimize disaster damage and for rational disaster management, the disaster damage survey process should be improved. This study selected gale as the focused analysis target among natural disasters recorded in disaster year book such as storm, torrential rain, gale, high seas, and heavy snow, and analyzed disaster survey process. Based on disaster year book, the gale damage size was analyzed and the issues occurring from the correlation of gale and damage amount were examined, so as to suggest an improvement plan for reliable natural disaster information collection and systematic natural disaster damage survey.

On the Predictability of Heavy Snowfall Event in Seoul, Korea at Mar. 04, 2008 (폭설에 대한 예측가능성 연구 - 2008년 3월 4일 서울지역 폭설사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Ryu, Chan-Su;Suh, Ae-Sook;Park, Jong-Seo;Chung, Hyo-Sang
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.11
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    • pp.1271-1281
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    • 2009
  • The heavy snowfall event over the eastern part of Seoul, Korea on Mar. 04, 2008 has been abruptly occurred after the frontal system with the heavy snowfall event had been past over the Korean peninsula on Mar. 03, 2008. Therefore, this heavy snowfall event couldn't be predicted well by any means of theoretical knowledges and models. After the cold front passed by, the cold air mass was flown over the peninsula immediately and became clear expectedly except the eastern part and southwestern part of peninsula with some large amount of snowfall. Even though the wide and intense massive cold anticyclone was expanded and enhanced by the lowest tropospheric baroclinicity over the Yellow Sea, but the intrusion and eastward movement of cold air to Seoul was too slow than normally predicted. Using the data of numerical model, satellite and radar images, three dimensional analysis Products(KLAPS : Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) of the environmental conditions of this event such as temperature, equivalent potential temperature, wind, vertical circulation, divergence, moisture flux divergence and relative vorticity could be analyzed precisely. Through the analysis of this event, the formation and westward advection of lower cyclonic circulation with continuously horizontal movement of air into the eastern part of Seoul by the analyses of KLAPS fields have been affected by occurring the heavy snowfall event. As the predictability of abrupt snowfall event was very hard and dependent on not only the synoptic atmospheric circulation but also for mesoscale atmospheric circulation, the forecaster can be predicted well this event which may be occurred and developed within the very short time period using sequential satellite images and KLAPS products.

Prediction of dryout-type CHF for rod bundle in natural circulation loop under motion condition

  • Huang, Siyang;Tian, Wenxi;Wang, Xiaoyang;Chen, Ronghua;Yue, Nina;Xi, Mengmeng;Su, G.H.;Qiu, Suizheng
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.721-733
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    • 2020
  • In nuclear engineering, the occurrence of critical heat flux (CHF) is complicated for rod bundle, and it is much more difficult to predict the CHF when it is in natural circulation under motion condition. In this paper, the dryout-type CHF is investigated for the rod bundle in a natural circulation loop under rolling motion condition based on the coupled analysis of subchannel method, a one-dimensional system analysis method and a CHF mechanism model, namely the three-fluid model for annular flow. In order to consider the rolling effect of the natural circulation loop, the subchannel model is connected to the one-dimensional system code at the inlet and outlet of the rod bundle. The subchannel analysis provides the local thermal hydraulic parameters as input for the CHF mechanism model to calculate the occurrence of CHF. The rolling motion is modeled by additional motion forces in the momentum equation. First, the calculation methods of the natural circulation and CHF are validated by a published natural circulation experiment data and a CHF empirical correlation, respectively. Then, the CHF of the rod bundle in a natural circulation loop under both the stationary and rolling motion condition is predicted and analyzed. According to the calculation results, CHF under stationary condition is smaller than that under rolling motion condition. Besides, the CHF decreases with the increase of the rolling period and angular acceleration amplitude within the range of inlet subcooling and mass flux adopted in the current research. This paper can provide useful information for the prediction of CHF in natural circulation under motion condition, which is important for the nuclear reactor design improvement and safety analysis.

Applicability research of round tube CHF mechanistic model in rod bundle channel

  • Liu, Wei;Peng, Shinian;Shan, Jianqiang;Jiang, Guangming;Liu, Yu;Deng, Jian;Hu, Ying
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.439-445
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    • 2021
  • In view of the complex geometric structure of the rod bundle channel and the limitation of the current CHF visualization experiment technology, it is very difficult to obtain the rod bundle CHF mechanism directly through the phenomenon of the rod bundle CHF visualization experiment. In order to obtain the applicable CHF mechanism assumption for rod bundle channel, firstly, five most representative DNB type round tube CHF mechanistic models are obtained with evaluation and screening. Then these original round tube CHF mechanistic models based on inlet conditions are converted to local conditions and coupled with subchannel analysis code ATHAS. Based on 5 × 5 full-length rod bundle CHF experimental data independently developed by Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC), the applicability research of each model for CHF prediction performance in rod bundle channel is carried out, and the commonness and difference of each model are comparatively studied. The CHF mechanism assumption of superheated liquid layer depletion that is most likely to be applicable for the rod bundle channel is selected and two directions that need to be improved are given. This study provides a reference for the development of CHF mechanistic model in rod bundle channel.

Sensitivity Analysis of Meteorology-based Wildfire Risk Indices and Satellite-based Surface Dryness Indices against Wildfire Cases in South Korea (기상기반 산불위험지수와 위성기반 지면건조지수의 우리나라 산불발생에 대한 민감도분석)

  • Kong, Inhak;Kim, Kwangjin;Lee, Yangwon
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2017
  • There are many wildfire risk indices worldwide, but objective comparisons between such various wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices have not been conducted for the wildfire cases in Korea. This paper describes a sensitivity analysis on the wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices for Korea using LDAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) meteorological dataset on a 1.5-km grid and MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite images on a 1-km grid. We analyzed the meteorology-based wildfire risk indices such as the Australian FFDI(forest fire danger index), the Canadian FFMC(fine fuel moisture code), the American HI(Haines index), and the academically presented MNI(modified Nesterov index). Also we examined the satellite-based surface dryness indices such as NDDI(normalized difference drought index) and TVDI(temperature vegetation dryness index). As a result of the comparisons between the six indices regarding 120 wildfire cases with the area damaged over 1ha during the period between January 2013 and May 2017, we found that the FFDI and FFMC showed a good predictability for most wildfire cases but the MNI and TVDI were not suitable for Korea. The NDDI can be used as a proxy parameter for wildfire risk because its average CDF(cumulative distribution function) scores were stably high irrespective of fire size. The indices tested in this paper should be carefully chosen and used in an integrated way so that they can contribute to wildfire forecasting in Korea.

Smart monitoring analysis system for tunnels in heterogeneous rock mass

  • Kim, Chang-Yong;Hong, Sung-Wan;Bae, Gyu-Jin;Kim, Kwang-Yeom;Schubert, Wulf
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.255-261
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    • 2003
  • Tunnelling in poor and heterogeneous ground is a difficult task. Even with a good geological investigation, uncertainties with respect to the local rock mass structure will remain. Especially for such conditions, a reliable short-term prediction of the conditions ahead and outside the tunnel profile are of paramount importance for the choice of appropriate excavation and support methods. The information contained in the absolute displacement monitoring data allows a comprehensive evaluation of the displacements and the determination of the behaviour and influence of an anisotropic rock mass. Case histories and with numerical simulations show, that changes in the displacement vector orientation can indicate changing rock mass conditions ahead of the tunnel face (Schubert & Budil 1995, Steindorfer & Schubert 1997). Further research has been conducted to quantify the influence of weak zones on stresses and displacements (Grossauer 2001). Sellner (2000) developed software, which allows predicting displacements (GeoFit$\circledR$). The function parameters describe the time and advance dependent deformation of a tunnel. Routinely applying this method at each measuring section allows determining trends of those parameters. It shows, that the trends of parameter sets indicate changes in the stiffness of the rock mass outside the tunnel in a similar way, as the displacement vector orientation does. Three-dimensional Finite Element simulations of different weakness zone properties, thicknesses, and orientations relative to the tunnel axis were carried out and the function parameters evaluated from the results. The results are compared to monitoring results from alpine tunnels in heterogeneous rock. The good qualitative correlation between trends observed on site and numerical results gives hope that by a routine determination of the function parameters during excavation the prediction of rock mass conditions ahead of the tunnel face can be improved. Implementing the rules developed from experience and simulations into the monitoring data evaluation program allows to automatically issuing information on the expected rock mass quality ahead of the tunnel.

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3D Model Compression For Collaborative Design

  • Liu, Jun;Wang, Qifu;Huang, Zhengdong;Chen, Liping;Liu, Yunhua
    • International Journal of CAD/CAM
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2007
  • The compression of CAD models is a key technology for realizing Internet-based collaborative product development because big model sizes often prohibit us to achieve a rapid product information transmission. Although there exist some algorithms for compressing discrete CAD models, original precise CAD models are focused on in this paper. Here, the characteristics of hierarchical structures in CAD models and the distribution of their redundant data are exploited for developing a novel data encoding method. In the method, different encoding rules are applied to different types of data. Geometric data is a major concern for reducing model sizes. For geometric data, the control points of B-spline curves and surfaces are compressed with the second-order predictions in a local coordinate system. Based on analysis to the distortion induced by quantization, an efficient method for computation of the distortion is provided. The results indicate that the data size of CAD models can be decreased efficiently after compressed with the proposed method.

Numerical model for local corrosion of steel reinforcement in reinforced concrete structure

  • Chen, Xuandong;Zhang, Qing;Chen, Ping;Liang, Qiuqun
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.385-393
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    • 2021
  • Reinforcement corrosion is the main cause of the durability failure of reinforced concrete (RC) structure. In this paper, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical model of macro-cell corrosion is established to reveal the corrosion mechanisms of steel reinforcement in RC structure. Modified Direct Iteration Method (MDIM) is employed to solve the system of partial differential equations for reinforcement corrosion. Through the sensitivity analysis of electrochemical parameters, it is found that the average corrosion current density is more sensitive to the change of cathodic Tafel slope and anodic equilibrium potential, compared with the other electrochemical parameters. Furthermore, both the anode-to-cathode (A/C) ratio and the anodic length have significant influences on the average corrosion current density, especially when A/C ratio is less than 0.5 and anodic length is less than 35 mm. More importantly, it is demonstrated that the corrosion rate of semi-circumferential corrosion is much larger than that of circumferential corrosion for the same A/C ratio value. The simulation results can give a unique insight into understanding the detailed electrochemical corrosion processes of steel reinforcement in RC structure for application in service life prediction of RC structures in actual civil engineer.