• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.124-129
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• 2017

Clouds are an important factor in aircraft flight. In particular, a significant impact on small aircraft flying at low altitude. Therefore, we have verified and characterized the low level cloud prediction data of the Unified Model(UM) - based Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System(LDAPS) operated by KMA in order to develop cloud forecasting service and contents important for safety of low-altitude aircraft flight. As a result of the low level cloud test for seven airports in Korea, a high correlation coefficient of 0.4 ~ 0.7 was obtained for 0-36 leading time. Also, we found that the prediction performance does not decrease as the lead time increases. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that model-based forecasting data for low-altitude aviation meteorology services can be produced.

• 한국지구과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.02a
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• pp.182-187
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• 2005

The weather hazard by worldwide global warming rapidly increases year by year, and the damage becomes also enormous. especially, the damage by the random local severe rain in Korea is conspicuous. The forecast is difficult, because the random local severe rain arises by the complicated mechanism. However, local weather field in the Honam district where the weather hazard arises well is accurately grasped, and the systems that predict the local severe rain early are necessary. The purpose of this research is development of radar data assimilation observed at Jindo S-band radar. The accurate observational data assimilation system is required for meteorological numerical prediction of the region scale. Diagnostic analysis system LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) developed by US FSL(Forecast Systems Laboratory) is adopted assimilation system of the Honam district forecasting system.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.65 no.5
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• pp.851-856
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• 2016

Wind speed is heavily fluctuated and quite local than other weather elements. It is difficult to improve the accuracy of prediction only in a numerical prediction model. An MOS (Model Output Statistics) technique is used to correct the systematic errors of the model using a statistical data analysis. The Most of previous MOS has used a linear regression model for weather prediction, but it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction of wind speed. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear regression method using SVR (Support Vector Regression) is introduced for a development of MOS for wind speed prediction. Experiments are performed for KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) re-analysis data from 2007 to 2013 year for Jeju Island and Busan area in South Korea. The MLR and SVR based linear and nonlinear methods are compared to each other for prediction accuracy of wind speed. Also, the comparison experiments are executed for the variation in the number of UM elements.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.367-374
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• 2015

Korean Peninsula has high potential for occurrence of aviation turbulence. A Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) system focused on the Korean Peninsula, named Korean-Peninsula KTG (KP-KTG) system, is developed using the high resolution (horizontal grid spacing of 1.5 km) Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The KP-KTG system is constructed first by selection of 15 best diagnostics of aviation turbulence using the method of probability of detection (POD) with pilot reports (PIREPs) and the LDAPS analysis data. The 15 best diagnostics are combined into an ensemble KTG predictor, named KP-KTG, with their weighting scores computed by the values of area under curve (AUC) of each diagnostics. The performance of the KP-KTG, represented by AUC, is larger than 0.84 in the recent two years (June 2012~May 2014), which is very good considering relatively small number of PIREPs. The KP-KTG can provide localized turbulence forecasting in Korean Peninsula, and its skill score is as good as that of the operational-KTG conducting in East Asia.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.473-478
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• 2013

In this paper, we develop the Heavy Rain Advisory Decision Model based on intelligent neuro-fuzzy algorithm RBFNNs by using KLAPS(Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) Reanalysis data. the prediction ability of existing heavy rainfall forecasting systems is usually affected by the processing techniques of meteorological data. In this study, we introduce the heavy rain forecast method using the pre-processing techniques of meteorological data are in order to improve these drawbacks of conventional system. The pre-processing techniques of meteorological data are designed by using point conversion, cumulative precipitation generation, time series data processing and heavy rain warning extraction methods based on KLAPS data. Finally, the proposed system forecasts cumulative rainfall for six hours after future t(t=1,2,3) hours and offers information to determine heavy rain advisory. The essential parameters of the proposed model such as polynomial order, the number of rules, and fuzzification coefficient are optimized by means of Differential Evolution.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.477-482
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• 2015

Linear regressions and evolutionary nonlinear regression based compensation techniques for the short-range prediction of wind speed are investigated. Development of an efficient MOS(Model Output Statistics) is necessary to correct systematic errors of the model, but a linear regression based MOS is hard to manage an irregular nature of weather prediction. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear and symbolic regression method using GP(Genetic Programming) is suggested for a development of MOS for wind speed prediction. The proposed method is compared to various linear regression methods for prediction of wind speed. Also, statistical analysis of distribution for UM elements for each method is executed. experiments are performed for KLAPS(Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) re-analysis data from 2007 to 2013 year for Jeju Island and Busan area in South Korea.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.53-62
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• 2012

Demand for high resolution weather data grows in the agriculture and forestry fields. Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) can be used to analyze the local weather at high spatial and temporal resolution, utilizing the data from various sources including numerical weather prediction models, wind or temperature profilers, Automated Weather Station (AWS) networks, radars, and satellites. LAPS has been set to analyze weather elements such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction every hour at the spatial resolution of $100m{\times}100m$ for Gyeonggi-do on near real-time basis. The AWS data were revised by adding the agricultural field AWS data (33 stations) in addition to the KMA data. The analysis periods were from 1 to 31 August 2009 and from 15 to 21 February 2010. The comparison of the LAPS output showed the smaller errors when using the agricultural AWS observation data together with the KMA data as its input data than using only either the agricultural or KMA AWS data. The accuracy of the current system needs improvement by further optimization of analyzing options of the system. However, the system is highly applicable to various fields in agriculture and forestry because it can provide site specific data with reasonable time intervals.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.38 no.6_1
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• pp.1191-1205
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• 2022

Particulate matter(PM) among air pollutants with complex and widespread causes is classified according to particle size. Among them, PM_2.5 is very small in size and can cause diseases in the human respiratory tract or cardiovascular system if inhaled by humans. In order to prepare for these risks, state-centered management and preventable monitoring and forecasting are important. This study tried to predict PM_2.5 in Seoul, where high concentrations of fine dust occur frequently, using two ensemble models, random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) using 15 local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS) weather-related factors, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and 4 chemical factors as independent variables. Performance evaluation and factor importance evaluation of the two models used for prediction were performed, and seasonal model analysis was also performed. As a result of prediction accuracy, RF showed high prediction accuracy of R² = 0.85 and XGB R² = 0.91, and it was confirmed that XGB was a more suitable model for PM_2.5 prediction than RF. As a result of the seasonal model analysis, it can be said that the prediction performance was good compared to the observed values with high concentrations in spring. In this study, PM_2.5 of Seoul was predicted using various factors, and an ensemble-based PM_2.5 prediction model showing good performance was constructed.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.907-923
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• 2020

For the severe haze situation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, conventional fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration prediction methods based on pollutant data face problems such as incomplete data, which may lead to poor prediction performance. Therefore, this paper proposes a method of predicting the PM2.5 concentration based on image analysis technology that combines image data, which can reflect the original weather conditions, with currently popular machine learning methods. First, based on local parameter estimation, autoregressive (AR) model analysis and local estimation of the increase in image blur, we extract features from the weather images using an approach inspired by free energy and a no-reference robust metric model. Next, we compare the coefficient energy and contrast difference of each pixel in the AR model and then use the percentages to calculate the image sharpness to derive the overall mass fraction. Furthermore, the results are compared. The relationship between residual value and PM2.5 concentration is fitted by generalized Gauss distribution (GGD) model. Finally, nonlinear mapping is performed via the wavelet neural network (WNN) method to obtain the PM2.5 concentration. Experimental results obtained on real data show that the proposed method offers an improved prediction accuracy and lower root mean square error (RMSE).

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.263-272
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• 2018

The high-resolution ocean surface wind vector produced by scatterometer was assimilated within the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on Metop-A/B wind data was processed in the KIAPS Package for Observation Processing (KPOP), and a module capable of processing surface wind observation was implemented in the LETKF system. The LETKF data assimilation cycle for evaluating the performance improvement due to ASCAT observation was carried out for approximately 20 days from June through July 2017 when Typhoon Nepartak was present. As a result, we have found that the performance of ASCAT wind vector has a clear and beneficial effect on the data assimilation cycle. It has reduced analysis errors of wind, temperature, and humidity, as well as analysis errors of lower troposphere wind. Furthermore, by the assimilation of the ASCAT wind observation, the initial condition of the model described the typhoon structure more accurately and improved the typhoon track prediction skill. Therefore, we can expect the analysis field of LETKF will be improved if the Scatterometer wind observation is added.