• Title/Summary/Keyword: Liquidity Ratio

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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

A Study on the Devitrification of Container Glass with the Amounts of Cullet (유리 용기 생산시 Cullet의 사용에 관한 연구)

  • Noh, Kwang-Hong;Kim, Jong-Ock;Kim, Taik-Nam;Lim, Dae-Young;Park, Won-Kyu;Lee, Chae-Hyun
    • The Journal of Engineering Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.199-205
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    • 1998
  • Cullet Quality Control in auto glass bottle factory is the most important in recent days because of the increasing cost of materials in glass bottle. Since the composition of plate glass cullet is similar, the cullet quality using plate cullet in glass bottle factory is easily controlled. In addition to this, the price of plate glass cullet is so low that the cost reduction can be achieved. If the ratio of plate glass cullet and gush is over 25%, the liquidity of glass water become worse, which is caused by different compositions and viscosity of the components. As a results, Furnace bottom temperature becomes low and glass water becomes inhomogeneous. Thus production efficiency of glass bottle becomes low because of increasing devitrification in Dead Corner part in glass melting furnace. Three experimental methods – (1) increasing melting temperature, (2) using Booster, (3) using bubbler – were performed to increase the furnace bottom temperature and glass water homogeneity. The amounts of plate glass cullet was able to increase up to 90%, 70% and 60% without any devitrification using booster, bubbler and the method of glass melting temperature increase from $1480^{\circ}C$ to $1560^{\circ}C$ respectively. It is not possible to increase the glass melting temperature without the reduction of furnace operation time and the increase of fuel cost. The booster process has disadvantage of much electric energy consumption. Since the bubbler process uses physical convection of melting glass based on compression air, the homogeneity of molten glass is not so good as that of booster process but it can reduce the cost of glass bottle.

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An Empirical Analysis of Fixed Asset Investment Smoothing Effects of Working Capital (운전자본의 고정자산투자 스무딩효과의 실증적 분석)

  • Shin, Min-Shik;Kim, Soo-Eun;Kim, Gong-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.25-51
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we analyse empirically the fixed asset investment smoothing of working capital of firms listed on Korea Securities Market. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. Firms will seek to lower long-term cost by smoothing fixed asset investment and maintaining stationary investment with working capital. Working capital is not only an important use of fund, but also a source of liquidity that should be used to smooth fixed asset investment relative to cash flow shocks if firms face financial constraints. Working capital investment is more sensitive than fixed asset investment to cash flow fluctuations. If firms face financial constraints, working capital investment will compete with fixed asset investment for the limited pool of available cash flows. So, fixed asset investment will have negative relationship with working capital investment. However, criticism that the positive correlation between cash flows and fixed asset investment could arise simply because cash flows is proxy variable for investment demand. Finally, controlling for the fixed asset investment smoothing effects of working capital results in a much larger estimate of the long run impact of financial constraints. Financial constraints is measured by dividend payout ratio and market access level. Fazzari et al. (1988), Fazzari and Petersen (1993), and Faulkender et al. (2008) emphasize that low dividend firms or market unaccessible firms are more likely to face financial constraints, and rarely make use of new equity issuing. The results from empirical analysis show that financial constraints can be better explained using 'adjustment cost' concept. Specifically, the results show that financial constraints exist and that in order to measure financial constraint effects more succinctly, fixed asset investment smoothing effects with working capital should be considered.

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