• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.795-805
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• 1997

In this paper, we consider a Bayesian forecasting method for the analysis of repeated surveys. It is assumed that the parameters of the superpopulation model at each time follow a stochastic model. We propose Bayesian prediction procedures for the finite population total under dynamic generalized linear models. Some numerical studies are provided to illustrate the behavior of the proposed predictors.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.34-39
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• 2012

In this study, the friction welding experiment was performed by using the design of experiment. And the signal data acquired by acoustic emission sensor were analyzed to predict the tensile strength of friction welding part at friction welding process for AZ31 magnesium alloy. A dimensionless coefficient($\phi_{AE}$), which consisted in the square of AE rms and variance, was defined as the characteristic of friction welding and the prediction equation was obtained by using linear regression. As the result of analysis, it was seen that the correlation between predicted and measured values became very close and on-line prediction of the ensile strength was possible in friction welding part.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.329-340
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• 1999

We consider a Bayesian forcasting method for the analysis of repeated surveys. It is assumed that the parameters of the superpopulation model at each time follow a stochastic model. We propose Bayesian prediction procedures for the finite population total under multiprocess dynamic generalized linear models. The multiprocess dynamic model offers a powerful framework for the modelling and analysis of time series which are subject to a abrupt changes in pattern. Some numerical studies are provided to illustrate the behavior of the proposed predictors.

• Proceedings of the KWS Conference
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• 2006.10a
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• pp.271-273
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• 2006

This paper focuses on the developed empirical models for the prediction on top-bead width in GMA(Gas Metal Arc) welding process. Three empirical models have been developed: linear, curvilinear and an intelligent model. Regression analysis was employed fur optimization of the coefficients of linear and curvilinear model, while Genetic Algorithm(GA) was utilized to estimate the coefficients of intelligent model. Not only the fitting of these models were checked, but also the prediction on top-bead width was carried out. ANOVA analysis and contour plots were respectively employed to represent main and interaction effects between process parameters on top-bead width.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.1508-1520
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• 2018

In this paper, we propose an improved model to provide users with a better long-term prediction of waterworks operation data. The existing prediction models have been studied in various types of models such as multiple linear regression model while considering time, days and seasonal characteristics. But the existing model shows the rate of prediction for demand fluctuation and long-term prediction is insufficient. Particularly in the deep running model, the long-short-term memory (LSTM) model has been applied to predict data of water purification plant because its time series prediction is highly reliable. However, it is necessary to reflect the correlation among various related factors, and a supplementary model is needed to improve the long-term predictability. In this paper, convolutional neural network (CNN) model is introduced to select various input variables that have a necessary correlation and to improve long term prediction rate, thus increasing the prediction rate through the LSTM predictive value and the combined structure. In addition, a multiple linear regression model is applied to compile the predicted data of CNN and LSTM, which then confirms the data as the final predicted outcome.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.3
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• pp.141-148
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• 2012

Food policy is considered as the most basic and central issue for all countries, while making efforts to keep each country's food sovereignty and enhance food self-sufficiency. In the case of Korea where the staple food is rice, the rice yield prediction is regarded as a very important task to cope with unstable food supply at a national level. In this study, Korean paddy Rice yield Prediction Model (KRPM) developed to predict the paddy rice yield using meteorological element and MODIS NDVI. A multiple linear regression analysis was carried out by using the NDVI extracted from satellite image. Six meteorological elements include average temperature; maximum temperature; minimum temperature; rainfall; accumulated rainfall and duration of sunshine. Concerning the evaluation for the applicability of the KRPM, the accuracy assessment was carried out through correlation analysis between predicted and provided data by the National Statistical Office of paddy rice yield in 2011. The 2011 predicted yield of paddy rice by KRPM was 505 kg/10a at whole country level and 487 kg/10a by agroclimatic zones using stepwise regression while the predicted value by KOrea Statistical Information Service was 532 kg/10a. The characteristics of changes in paddy rice yield according to NDVI and other meteorological elements were well reflected by the KRPM.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.72 no.1
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• pp.31-41
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• 2019

Structural integrity assessment of piping components is of paramount important for remaining life prediction, residual strength evaluation and for in-service inspection planning. For accurate prediction of these, a reliable fracture parameter is essential. One of the fracture parameters is stress intensity factor (SIF), which is generally preferred for high strength materials, can be evaluated by using linear elastic fracture mechanics principles. To employ available analytical and numerical procedures for fracture analysis of piping components, it takes considerable amount of time and effort. In view of this, an alternative approach to analytical and finite element analysis, a model based on relevance vector machine (RVM) is developed to predict SIF of part through crack of a piping component under fatigue loading. RVM is based on probabilistic approach and regression and it is established based on Bayesian formulation of a linear model with an appropriate prior that results in a sparse representation. Model for SIF prediction is developed by using MATLAB software wherein 70% of the data has been used for the development of RVM model and rest of the data is used for validation. The predicted SIF is found to be in good agreement with the corresponding analytical solution, and can be used for damage tolerant analysis of structural components.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers C
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• v.52 no.3
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• pp.137-143
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• 2003

The degree of contamination on outdoor insulator is ons of the most importance factor to determine the pollution level of outdoor insulation, and the sea salt is known as the most dangerous pollutant. As shown through the preceding study, the generation of salt pollutant and the pollution degree of outdoor insulator have a close relation with meteorological conditions, such as wind velocity, wind direction, precipitation and so fourth. So, in this paper, we made an investigation on the prediction method, a statistical estimation technique for equivalent salt deposit density of outdoor insulator with multiple linear regression analysis. From the results of the analysis, we proved the superiority of the prediction method in which the variables had a very close(about 0.9) correlation coefficient. And the results could be applied to establish the Pollution Prediction System for power utilities, and the system could provide an invaluable information for the design and maintenance of outdoor insulation system.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.203-209
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• 2009

Frailty models are useful for the analysis of correlated and/or heterogeneous survival data. However, the inferences of fixed parameters, rather than random effects, have been mainly studied. The prediction (or estimation) of random effects is also practically useful to investigate the heterogeneity of the hospital or patient effects. In this paper we propose how to extend the prediction method for random effects in HGLMs (hierarchical generalized linear models) to log-normal semiparametric frailty models with nonparametric baseline hazard. The proposed method is demonstrated by a simulation study.

• 유체기계공업학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2006.08a
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• pp.235-238
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• 2006

This paper is about the code that realizes the $e^N$-Method for boundary-layer transition prediction. The $e^N$-Method based on the linear stability theory is applied to predicting boundary-layer transition frequently. This paper deals with the construction of code, stability analysis and the calculation of N-factor. The results of transition prediction using the $e^N$-Method for flat plate/cone compressible boundary-layers are presented.