• Title/Summary/Keyword: Linear Models

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Development of Yóukè Mining System with Yóukè's Travel Demand and Insight Based on Web Search Traffic Information (웹검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 유커 인바운드 여행 수요 예측 모형 및 유커마이닝 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Youji;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2017
  • As social data become into the spotlight, mainstream web search engines provide data indicate how many people searched specific keyword: Web Search Traffic data. Web search traffic information is collection of each crowd that search for specific keyword. In a various area, web search traffic can be used as one of useful variables that represent the attention of common users on specific interests. A lot of studies uses web search traffic data to nowcast or forecast social phenomenon such as epidemic prediction, consumer pattern analysis, product life cycle, financial invest modeling and so on. Also web search traffic data have begun to be applied to predict tourist inbound. Proper demand prediction is needed because tourism is high value-added industry as increasing employment and foreign exchange. Among those tourists, especially Chinese tourists: Youke is continuously growing nowadays, Youke has been largest tourist inbound of Korea tourism for many years and tourism profits per one Youke as well. It is important that research into proper demand prediction approaches of Youke in both public and private sector. Accurate tourism demands prediction is important to efficient decision making in a limited resource. This study suggests improved model that reflects latest issue of society by presented the attention from group of individual. Trip abroad is generally high-involvement activity so that potential tourists likely deep into searching for information about their own trip. Web search traffic data presents tourists' attention in the process of preparation their journey instantaneous and dynamic way. So that this study attempted select key words that potential Chinese tourists likely searched out internet. Baidu-Chinese biggest web search engine that share over 80%- provides users with accessing to web search traffic data. Qualitative interview with potential tourists helps us to understand the information search behavior before a trip and identify the keywords for this study. Selected key words of web search traffic are categorized by how much directly related to "Korean Tourism" in a three levels. Classifying categories helps to find out which keyword can explain Youke inbound demands from close one to far one as distance of category. Web search traffic data of each key words gathered by web crawler developed to crawling web search data onto Baidu Index. Using automatically gathered variable data, linear model is designed by multiple regression analysis for suitable for operational application of decision and policy making because of easiness to explanation about variables' effective relationship. After regression linear models have composed, comparing with model composed traditional variables and model additional input web search traffic data variables to traditional model has conducted by significance and R squared. after comparing performance of models, final model is composed. Final regression model has improved explanation and advantage of real-time immediacy and convenience than traditional model. Furthermore, this study demonstrates system intuitively visualized to general use -Youke Mining solution has several functions of tourist decision making including embed final regression model. Youke Mining solution has algorithm based on data science and well-designed simple interface. In the end this research suggests three significant meanings on theoretical, practical and political aspects. Theoretically, Youke Mining system and the model in this research are the first step on the Youke inbound prediction using interactive and instant variable: web search traffic information represents tourists' attention while prepare their trip. Baidu web search traffic data has more than 80% of web search engine market. Practically, Baidu data could represent attention of the potential tourists who prepare their own tour as real-time. Finally, in political way, designed Chinese tourist demands prediction model based on web search traffic can be used to tourism decision making for efficient managing of resource and optimizing opportunity for successful policy.

Optimization and Development of Prediction Model on the Removal Condition of Livestock Wastewater using a Response Surface Method in the Photo-Fenton Oxidation Process (Photo-Fenton 산화공정에서 반응표면분석법을 이용한 축산폐수의 COD 처리조건 최적화 및 예측식 수립)

  • Cho, Il-Hyoung;Chang, Soon-Woong;Lee, Si-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.642-652
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    • 2008
  • The aim of our research was to apply experimental design methodology in the optimization condition of Photo-Fenton oxidation of the residual livestock wastewater after the coagulation process. The reactions of Photo-Fenton oxidation were mathematically described as a function of parameters amount of Fe(II)($x_1$), $H_2O_2(x_2)$ and pH($x_3$) being modeled by the use of the Box-Behnken method, which was used for fitting 2nd order response surface models and was alternative to central composite designs. The application of RSM using the Box-Behnken method yielded the following regression equation, which is an empirical relationship between the removal(%) of livestock wastewater and test variables in coded unit: Y = 79.3 + 15.61x$_1$ - 7.31x$_2$ - 4.26x$_3$ - 18x$_1{^2}$ - 10x$_2{^2}$ - 11.9x$_3{^2}$ + 2.49x$_1$x$_2$ - 4.4x$_2$x$_3$ - 1.65x$_1$x$_3$. The model predicted also agreed with the experimentally observed result(R$^2$ = 0.96) The results show that the response of treatment removal(%) in Photo-Fenton oxidation of livestock wastewater were significantly affected by the synergistic effect of linear terms(Fe(II)($x_1$), $H_2O_2(x_2)$, pH(x$_3$)), whereas Fe(II) $\times$ Fe(II)(x$_1{^2}$), $H_2O_2$ $\times$ $H_2O_2$(x$_2{^2}$) and pH $\times$ pH(x$_3{^2}$) on the quadratic terms were significantly affected by the antagonistic effect. $H_2O_2$ $\times$ pH(x$_2$x$_3$) had also a antagonistic effect in the cross-product term. The estimated ridge of the expected maximum response and optimal conditions for Y using canonical analysis were 84 $\pm$ 0.95% and (Fe(II)(X$_1$) = 0.0146 mM, $H_2O_2$(X$_2$) = 0.0867 mM and pH(X$_3$) = 4.704, respectively. The optimal ratio of Fe/H$_2O_2$ was also 0.17 at the pH 4.7.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Application of Support Vector Regression for Improving the Performance of the Emotion Prediction Model (감정예측모형의 성과개선을 위한 Support Vector Regression 응용)

  • Kim, Seongjin;Ryoo, Eunchung;Jung, Min Kyu;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2012
  • .Since the value of information has been realized in the information society, the usage and collection of information has become important. A facial expression that contains thousands of information as an artistic painting can be described in thousands of words. Followed by the idea, there has recently been a number of attempts to provide customers and companies with an intelligent service, which enables the perception of human emotions through one's facial expressions. For example, MIT Media Lab, the leading organization in this research area, has developed the human emotion prediction model, and has applied their studies to the commercial business. In the academic area, a number of the conventional methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been applied to predict human emotion in prior studies. However, MRA is generally criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. This is inevitable since MRA can only explain the linear relationship between the dependent variables and the independent variable. To mitigate the limitations of MRA, some studies like Jung and Kim (2012) have used ANN as the alternative, and they reported that ANN generated more accurate prediction than the statistical methods like MRA. However, it has also been criticized due to over fitting and the difficulty of the network design (e.g. setting the number of the layers and the number of the nodes in the hidden layers). Under this background, we propose a novel model using Support Vector Regression (SVR) in order to increase the prediction accuracy. SVR is an extensive version of Support Vector Machine (SVM) designated to solve the regression problems. The model produced by SVR only depends on a subset of the training data, because the cost function for building the model ignores any training data that is close (within a threshold ${\varepsilon}$) to the model prediction. Using SVR, we tried to build a model that can measure the level of arousal and valence from the facial features. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected the data of facial reactions when providing appropriate visual stimulating contents, and extracted the features from the data. Next, the steps of the preprocessing were taken to choose statistically significant variables. In total, 297 cases were used for the experiment. As the comparative models, we also applied MRA and ANN to the same data set. For SVR, we adopted '${\varepsilon}$-insensitive loss function', and 'grid search' technique to find the optimal values of the parameters like C, d, ${\sigma}^2$, and ${\varepsilon}$. In the case of ANN, we adopted a standard three-layer backpropagation network, which has a single hidden layer. The learning rate and momentum rate of ANN were set to 10%, and we used sigmoid function as the transfer function of hidden and output nodes. We performed the experiments repeatedly by varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer to n/2, n, 3n/2, and 2n, where n is the number of the input variables. The stopping condition for ANN was set to 50,000 learning events. And, we used MAE (Mean Absolute Error) as the measure for performance comparison. From the experiment, we found that SVR achieved the highest prediction accuracy for the hold-out data set compared to MRA and ANN. Regardless of the target variables (the level of arousal, or the level of positive / negative valence), SVR showed the best performance for the hold-out data set. ANN also outperformed MRA, however, it showed the considerably lower prediction accuracy than SVR for both target variables. The findings of our research are expected to be useful to the researchers or practitioners who are willing to build the models for recognizing human emotions.

A study on the factors to affect the career success among workers with disabilities (지체장애근로자의 직업성공 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dal-Yob
    • 한국사회복지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.185-216
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    • 2003
  • This study was aimed at investigating important factors influencing career success among regular workers. The current researcher scrutinized the degree to which variables and factors affect the career success and occupational turnover rates of the research participants. At the same tune, two hypothetical path models established by the researcher were examined using linear multiple regression methods and the LISREL. After examining the differences among the factors of career success, a comparison was made between the disabled worker group and the non-disabled worker group. A questionnaire using the 5-point Likert scale was distributed to a group of 374 workers with disabilities and 463 workers without disabilities. For the data analysis purpose, the structural equation model, factor analysis, correlation analysis, and multiple regression analysis were carried out. The results of this study ran be summarized as follows. First, the results of factor analysis showed important categories of conceptual themes of career success. The initial conceptual factor model did not accord with the empirical one. A three-factorial model revealed categories of personal, family, and organizational factor respectively. The personal factor was composed of the self-esteem and self-efficiency. The family factor was consisted of the multi-roles stress and the number of children. Finally, the organizational factor was composed of the capacity for utilizing resources, networking, and the frequency of mentoring. In addition, the total 10 sub areas of career success were divided by two important aspects; the subjective career success and the objective career success. Second, both research participant groups seemed to be influenced by their occupational types. However, all predictive variables excluding the wage rate and the average length of work years had significant impact on job success for the disabled work group, while all the variables excluding the frequency of advice and length of working years had significant impact on job success for the non-disabled worker group. Third, the turnover rate was significantly influenced by the age and the experience of turnover of the research participants. However, the number of co-workers was the strongest predictive variable for the worker group with disabilities, but the occupation choice variable for the worker group without disabilities. For the disabled worker group, the turnover rate was differently influenced by the type of occupation, the length of working years, while multi-role stress and the average working years at the time of turnover for the worker group without disabilities. Fifth, as a result of verifying the hypothetical path model, it showed that the first model was somewhat proper and could predict the career success on both research participant groups. In the second model, the Chi-square, the degree of freedom (($x^2=64.950$, df=61, P=0.341), and the adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) were .964, and the Comparative Fit Index (CFI) were .997, and the Root Mean Squared Residual (RMR) was respectively. .038. The model was best fitted and could predict the career success more highly because the goodness of fit index in the whole models was within the allowed range. In conclusion, the following research implications can be suggested. First, the occupational type of research participants was one of the most important variables to predict the career success for both research participant groups. It means that people with disabilities require human development services including education. They need to improve themselves in this knowledge-based society. Furthermore, for maintaining the career success, people with disabilities should be approached by considering the subjective career success aspects including wages and the promotion opportunities than the objective career success aspects.

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Biomass, Net Production and Nutrient Distribution of Bamboo Phyllostachys Stands in Korea (왕대속(屬) 대나무림(林)의 물질생산(物質生産) 및 무기영양물(無機營養物) 분배(分配)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, In Hyeop;Ryu, Suk Bong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.85 no.3
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    • pp.453-461
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    • 1996
  • Three Phyllostachys stands of P. pubescens, P. bambusoides and P. nigra var, henonis in Sunchon were studied to investigate biomass, net production and nutrient distribution. Five $10m{\times}10m$ quadrats were set up and 20 sample culms of 2 years and over were harvested for dimension analysis in each stand. One year old culms and subterranean parts were estimated by the harvested quadrat method. The largest mean DBH, height and basal area were shown in P. pubescens stand, and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand and P. bambusoides stand. There was little difference in accuracy among three allometric biomass regression models of logWt=A+B1ogD, $logWt=A+BlogD^2H$ and logWt=A+BlogD+ClogH, where Wt, D and H were dry weight, DBH and height, respectively. Analysis of covariance showed that there were significant differences in intercept among the linear allometric biomass regressons of three Phyllostachys species. Biomass included subterranean parts was the largest in P. pubescens stand(103.621t/ha), and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand(86.447t/ha) and P. bambusoides stand(36.767t/ha). Leaf biomass was 6.3% to 7.8% of total biomass in each stands. The ratio of aboveground biomass and subterranean biomass in each stand was 1.87 to 2.26. Net production included subterranean parts was the greatest in P. pubescens stand(6.115t/ha/yr), and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand(5.609t/ha/yr) and P, bambusoides stand(3.252t/ha/yr). The highest net assimilation ratio was estimated in P. pubescens stand(2.979), and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand(2.752) and P. bambusoides stand(2.187). Biomass accumulation ratio of each stand was 2.679 to 5.358. Concentrations of N, P and Mg were the highest in leaves, and followed by subterranean parts, and culms+branches in all three species. Concentration of Ca was the highest in leaves, and followed by culms+branches, and subterranean parts in all three species. The difference in biomass among three species stands was caused by their culm size, leaf biomass, net assimilation ratio, and efficiency of leaves to produce culms.

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Information Flow During Individual Model Construction and Group Model Construction Type in the Sound Propagation Model Co-Construction Class (소리의 전달 모형구성 수업에서 나타난 개인모형 구성 단계 중 정보의 흐름과 모둠모형 구성의 유형)

  • Park, Jeongwoo;Yoo, Junehee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.393-405
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we classified the group model construction types in the actual classroom situation implementing the instructional strategy mixed with individual model construction and group model construction types. The purpose of this study is to analyze the information flow and the individual construction types of each group model construction type to obtain implications for model co-construction in a real classroom environment. A two-session class on sound propagation was carried out for thirty-three 8th grade students in Seoul. A total of 65 individual model construction and 16 group model construction processes were collected and analyzed. The group model construction types were classified as unchanged, enumerated, and elaborated. The unchanged type was found in 8 groups, the enumerated type in 3 groups, and the elaborated type in 5 groups. The isolated individual and independent construction (i.I) were found mostly in the unchanged group construction type (50.0%) and enumerated group construction type (54.5%). In the unchanged type, the radial shape of flow in which one student's information is transmitted to all the members of the group appeared. In the enumerated type, the starting point of the information flow was observed from two individuals. In the elaborated type, linear information flow appeared and both the second dissemination and reflective construction (2d.R) contributed to the group model construction (58.3%). This study suggests a viewpoint that enables to understand the process of complex model construction in an actual classroom context rather than in an ideal situation. The result of this study suggests the necessity of a modeling strategy considering the characteristics of Korean small group culture. It is expected that the discussion will progress through further studies.

Analysis of alveolar molding effects in infants with bilateral cleft lip and palate when treated with pre-surgical naso-alveolar molding appliance (양측성 순구개열 신생아 환자의 수술전 비치조 정형장치 치료에 의한 치조골 조형(molding) 효과의 분석)

  • Nahm, Dong-Seok;Yang, Won-Sik;Baek, Seung-Hak;Kim, Sukwha
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.29 no.6 s.77
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    • pp.649-661
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    • 1999
  • The goals of this study were 1) to present pre-surgical naso-alveolar molding (PNAM) appliance for bilateral cleft lip and palate treatment and 2) to evaluate the effects of the PNAM appliance on the alveolar molding of the premaxilla and the lateral segments. Subjects consisted of 8 bilateral cleft lip and palate infants (7 males and 1 female, mean age at first visit = 61.6 days after birth) who were treated with PNAM appliances in Department of Orthodontics, Seoul National University Dental Hospital. Average alveolar cleft gap between the premaxilla and the lateral segment was $8.09{\pm}5.03mm$ and average duration of alveolar molding treatment was $8.8{\pm}3.1$ weeks. These patients' models were obtained at initial visit (T0) and after alveolar molding (T1). 20 linear and 14 angular variables were measured by using photometry and digital caliper, All statistical analyses were performed by Microsoft Excel 97 program. Paired t-test was used to discriminate the effect of alveolar molding by PNAM appliance. 1. Closure of the alveolar cleft gap in bilateral cleft cases by molding therapy was completed successfully, 2. Alveolar molding inhibited outward growth of lateral segments and produced inward bending of lateral segments. 3. By bending the anterior part of the vomer, the premaxilla could be rotated and moved. posteriorly via alveolar molding. Conclusion This appliance can be applied to bilateral cleft lip and palate infants with satisfactory results before cheiloplasty.

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A Case Study on Students' Mathematical Concepts of Algebra, Connections and Attitudes toward Mathematics in a CAS Environment (CAS 그래핑 계산기를 활용한 수학 수업에 관한 사례 연구)

  • Park, Hui-Jeong;Kim, Kyung-Mi;Whang, Woo-Hyung
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.403-430
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of the study was to investigate how the use of graphing calculators influence on forming students' mathematical concept of algebra, students' mathematical connection, and attitude toward mathematics. First, graphing calculators give instant feedback to students as they make students compare their written answers with the results, which helps students learn equations and linear inequalities for themselves. In respect of quadratic inequalities they help students to correct wrong concepts and understand fundamental concepts, and with regard to functions students can draw graphs more easily using graphing calculators, which means that the difficulty of drawing graphs can not be hindrance to student's learning functions. Moreover students could understand functions intuitively by using graphing calculators and explored math problems volunteerly. As a result, students were able to perceive faster the concepts of functions that they considered difficult and remain the concepts in their mind for a long time. Second, most of students could not think of connection among equations, equalities and functions. However, they could understand the connection among equations, equalities and functions more easily. Additionally students could focus on changing the real life into the algebraic expression by modeling without the fear of calculating, which made students relieve the burden of calculating and realize the usefulness of mathematics through the experience of solving the real-life problems. Third, we identified the change of six students' attitude through preliminary and an ex post facto attitude test. Five of six students came to have positive attitude toward mathematics, but only one student came to have negative attitude. However, all of the students showed positive attitude toward using graphing calculators in math class. That's because they could have more interest in mathematics by the strengthened and visualization of graphing calculators which helped them understand difficult algebraic concepts, which gave them a sense of achievement. Also, students could relieve the burden of calculating and have confidence. In a conclusion, using graphing calculators in algebra and function class has many advantages : formulating mathematics concepts, mathematical connection, and enhancing positive attitude toward mathematics. Therefore we need more research of the effect of using calculators, practical classroom materials, instruction models and assessment tools for graphing calculators. Lastly We need to make the classroom environment more adequate for using graphing calculators in math classes.

Normal blood pressure values and percentile curves measured by oscillometric method in children under 6 years of age (진동식 자동 혈압계로 측정한 6세 이하 아동의 정상 혈압치와 백분위수 곡선)

  • Sohn, Jin A;Lee, Hee Sook;Lim, Kyoung Aha;Yoon, So Young;Jung, Jo Won;Kim, Nam Su;Noh, Chung Il;Lee, Soon Young;Hong, Young Mi
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.998-1006
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Hypertension is defined as average systolic blood pressure and/or diastolic blood pressure that is ${\geq}95^{th}$ percentile for gender, age, and height on ${\geq}three$ occasions. Knowing that blood pressure values increase in children as they grow older, the purposes of this study were to measure blood pressure by an oscillometric device and to determine normal values and percentile curves for children. Methods : Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were measured twice with an oscillometric device in 3,545 boys and 3,145 girls under six years of age, in Seoul. Using this data, we determined average blood pressure values and percentile curves based on gender and age; we subdivided these values into blood pressures of $50^{th}$, $90^{th}$, $95^{th}$, and $99^{th}$ percentiles, by percentile of height. The regression coefficients and standard deviations of the systolic and diastolic blood pressure values were obtained from linear regression models. Results : Older boys and girls had higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure values. Older boys and girls in the same percentile of height for age had higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure values. Taller boys and girls within the same age group had higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure values. Conclusion : Blood pressure standards based on gender, age, and height were obtained via an oscillometric method. Llimitation of this study is that the study population was not from the whole country, but exclusively from Seoul. Nonetheless, the data from this study will be helpful in diagnosing and managing hypertension in Korean children.