• 응용통계연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.515-530
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• 2007

진단검사에서 민감도와 특이도가 선택편향에 영향을 받을 때, 진단검사의 각층에서의 민감도와 1-특이도의 비로 얻어지는 층화우도비도 편의가 존재하게 된다. 따라서 편의가 있는 층화우도비로 찾아진 최적절사점도 잘못된 값이 된다. 본 연구에서는 Begg과 Greenes (1983)에 의해 제안된 수정 민감도와 특이도를 층화우도비에 적용하여, 선택편향이 수정되는 최적절사점을 찾아보았다. 그리고 선택편향이 최적절사점에 미치는 영향을 선택편향 수정인자를 통해 설명하였다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.61-72
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• 1996

It is very important to determine the likelihood ratios and the prior odds for designing a Bayesian processor in Built-In-Test system. Using traditional statistics, it is not difficult to determine the initial prior odds from the field data. For a newly designed system, development testing data or laboratory testing data could be used to replace field data. The likelihood ratios which playa key role in the Bayesian processor must be carefully determined, based on laboratory testing and statistical techniques. In this paper, expressing and determining the likelihood ratios by Geometric areas, Test, and Analytical method will be presented.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2004년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2004
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• pp.291-293
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• 2004

The aim of this study was to cross-validate a spatial probabilistic model of landslide likelihood ratios at Boun, Janghung and Yongin, in Korea, using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Landslide locations within the study areas were identified by interpreting aerial photographs, satellite images and field surveys. Maps of the topography, soil type, forest cover, lineaments and land cover were constructed from the spatial data sets. The 14 factors that influence landslide occurrence were extracted from the database and the likelihood ratio of each factor was computed. 'Landslide susceptibility maps were drawn for these three areas using likelihood ratios derived not only from the data for that area but also using the likelihood ratios calculated from each of the other two areas (nine maps in all) as a cross-check of the validity of the method For validation and cross-validation, the results of the analyses were compared, in each study area, with actual landslide locations. The validation and cross-validation of the results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing landslide locations.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한예방의학회 1994년도 교수 연수회(역학)
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• pp.154-157
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• 1994

The evaluation of diagnostic tests attempts to obtain one or more statistical parameters which can indicate the intrinsic diagnostic utility of a test. Sensitivity. specificity and predictive value are not appropriate for this use. The likelihood ratio has been proposed as a useful measure when using a test to diagnose one of two disease states (e.g. disease present or absent). In this paper, we generalize the likelihood ratio concept to a situation in which the goal is to diagnose one of several non-overlapping disease states. A formula is derived to determine the post-test probability of a specific disease state. The post-test odds are shown to be related to the pre-test odds of a disease and to the usual likelihood ratios derived from considering the diagnosis between the target diagnosis and each alternate in turn. Hence, likelihood ratios derived from comparing pairs of diseases can be used to determine test utility in a multiple disease diagnostic situation.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.181-207
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• 2013

In this paper, a statistical reference-free real-time damage detection methodology is proposed for detecting joint and member damage of truss bridge structures. For the statistical damage sensitive index (DSI), wavelet packet decomposition (WPD) in conjunction with the log likelihood ratio was suggested. A sensitivity test for selecting a wavelet packet that is most sensitive to damage level was conducted and determination of the level of decomposition was also described. Advantages of the proposed method for applications to real-time health monitoring systems were demonstrated by using the log likelihood ratios instead of likelihood ratios. A laboratory truss bridge structure instrumented with accelerometers and a shaker was used for experimental verification tests of the proposed methodology. The statistical reference-free real-time damage detection algorithm was successfully implemented and verified by detecting three damage types frequently observed in truss bridge structures - such as loss of bolts, loosening of bolts at multiple locations, sectional loss of members - without reference signals from pristine structure. The DSI based on WPD and the log likelihood ratio showed consistent and reliable results under different damage scenarios.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.345-354
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• 2010

The Gamma Distribution is widely used in Engineering and Industrial applications. Estimation of parameters is revisited in the two-parameter Gamma distribution. The parameters are estimated by minimizing the likelihood ratios. A comparative study between the method of moments, the maximum likelihood method, the method of product spacings, and minimization of three different likelihood ratios is performed using simulation. For the scale parameter, the maximum likelihood estimate performs better and for the shape parameter, the product spacings estimate performs better. Among the three likelihood ratio statistics considered, the Anderson-Darling statistic has inferior performance compared to the Cramer-von-Misses statistic and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.384-393
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• 2019

An experimental validation of a nuclear forensics methodology for the source reactor-type discrimination of separated weapons-useable plutonium is presented. The methodology uses measured values of intra-element isotope ratios of plutonium and fission product contaminants. MCNP radiation transport codes were used for various reactor core modeling and fuel burnup simulations. A reactor-dependent library of intra-element isotope ratio values as a function of burnup and time since irradiation was created from the simulation results. The experimental validation of the methodology was achieved by performing two low-burnup experimental irradiations, resulting in distinct fuel samples containing sub-milligram quantities of weapons-useable plutonium. The irradiated samples were subjected to gamma and mass spectrometry to measure several intra-element isotope ratios. For each reactor in the library, a maximum likelihood calculation was utilized to compare the measured and simulated intra-element isotope ratio values, producing a likelihood value which is proportional to the probability of observing the measured ratio values, given a particular reactor in the library. The measured intra-element isotope ratio values of both irradiated samples and its comparison with the simulation predictions using maximum likelihood analyses are presented. The analyses validate the nuclear forensics methodology developed.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.251-261
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• 2004

The paper focuses primarily on the standard linear multiple regression model where the parameter of interest is a ratio of two regression coefficients. The general model includes the calibration model, the Fieller-Creasy problem, slope-ratio assays, parallel-line assays, and bioequivalence. We provide an orthogonal transformation (cf. Cox and Reid (1987)) of the original parameter vector. Also, we give some remarks on the difficulties associated with likelihood based confidence interval.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제51권5호
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• pp.1355-1364
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• 2019

A recently published nuclear forensics methodology for source discrimination of separated weapons-grade plutonium utilizes intra-element isotope ratios and a maximum likelihood formulation to identify the most likely source reactor-type, fuel burnup and time since irradiation of unknown material. Sensitivity studies performed here on the effects of random measurement error and the uncertainty in intra-element isotope ratio values show that different intra-element isotope ratios have disproportionate contributions to the determination of the reactor parameters. The methodology is robust to individual errors in measured intra-element isotope ratio values and even more so for uniform systematic errors due to competing effects on the predictions from the selected intra-element isotope ratios suite. For a unique sample-model pair, simulation uncertainties of up to 28% are acceptable without impeding successful source-reactor discrimination. However, for a generic sample with multiple plausible sources within the reactor library, uncertainties of 7% or less may be required. The results confirm the critical role of accurate reactor core physics, fuel burnup simulations and experimental measurements in the proposed methodology where increased simulation uncertainty is found to significantly affect the capability to discriminate between the reactors in the library.

• 한국임상수의학회지
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.146-151
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• 2008

During the clinical decision making practitioners are often faced with performing diagnostic tests to solve the presenting problems seen in the patients. The diagnostic utility of a test has traditionally been described by technical terms such as sensitivity, specificity, and positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). Although well known, clinicians are frequently unclear about the concept and application of these terms in everyday evidence-based clinical decision making. Sensitivity and specificity, which are intrinsic properties of diagnostic tests, summarizes the characteristics of the test over a population. The PPV and NPV are greatly dependent on the population prevalence of disease, and thus they do not transferable to different patients or clinical settings. Besides, considering the fact that clinicians more often interested in knowing the extent to which a test result could confirm or exclude of a condition under consideration (posttest probability), these measures do not provide answers on this question. The likelihood ratios (LR) using the information contained in sensitivity and specificity are becoming increasingly popular for reporting the usefulness of diagnostic tests because this term provide an indication of posttest probability as a function of the pretest probability. In this article, clinical applications of LR are illustrated with some practical examples. Discussion is also included of the inherent limitations regarding diagnostic test characteristics.