• Title/Summary/Keyword: Likelihood ratio

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GIS-based Data-driven Geological Data Integration using Fuzzy Logic: Theory and Application (퍼지 이론을 이용한 GIS기반 자료유도형 지질자료 통합의 이론과 응용)

  • ;;Chang-Jo F. Chung
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.243-255
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    • 2003
  • The mathematical models for GIS-based spatial data integration have been developed for geological applications such as mineral potential mapping or landslide susceptibility analysis. Among various models, the effectiveness of fuzzy logic based integration of multiple sets of geological data is investigated and discussed. Unlike a traditional target-driven fuzzy integration approach, we propose a data-driven approach that is derived from statistical relationships between the integration target and related spatial geological data. The proposed approach consists of four analytical steps; data representation, fuzzy combination, defuzzification and validation. For data representation, the fuzzy membership functions based on the likelihood ratio functions are proposed. To integrate them, the fuzzy inference network is designed that can combine a variety of different fuzzy operators. Defuzzification is carried out to effectively visualize the relative possibility levels from the integrated results. Finally, a validation approach based on the spatial partitioning of integration targets is proposed to quantitatively compare various fuzzy integration maps and obtain a meaningful interpretation with respect to future events. The effectiveness and some suggestions of the schemes proposed here are illustrated by describing a case study for landslide susceptibility analysis. The case study demonstrates that the proposed schemes can effectively identify areas that are susceptible to landslides and ${\gamma}$ operator shows the better prediction power than the results using max and min operators from the validation procedure.

Modeling Traffic Accident Occurrence Involving Child Pedestrians at School Zone (공간적 특성을 고려한 어린이 교통사고 모형 개발)

  • BEAK, Tea Hun;Son, Seulki;PARK, Byung Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.489-498
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to develop road traffic accident model involving child pedestrian especially at school zones and its surrounding area. The analysis is based upon traffic accident data collected near sixty elementary schools in City of Cheongju during 2012 and 2014. This study results in two statistical models ; one is to predict the number of road traffic accidents involving children, and the other is to predict EPDO(Equivalent Prperty Damage Only). These models are represented as Poisson models. which are statistically significant with the likelihood ratios of 0.533 and 0.273. The common explanatory variables of these models are the ratio of road section with more than 4 lanes, the number of entrance and exit, the number of signalized crosswalk in school zone, the number of school zone signage including road surface marking, and the number of speed limit signs. The specific variables are the length of road stretch in school zone, the number of reflector mirrors, and the number of signalized crosswalk outside school zone. It is concluded that these types of road safety facilities can reduce the number of traffic accidents involving children at school zones and its surrounding area.

Analysis of Factors influencing Severity of Motorcycle Accidents using Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗모형에 의한 이륜차 사고심각도의 영향요인 분석)

  • Choi, Jung Woo;Kum, Ki Jung
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : This study drew factors affecting motorcycle accidents in Seoul by severity using an ordered probit model and aimed to analyze and verify the drawn influence factors. METHODS : As the severity of the accidents could be classified into three types (fatal injury, serious injury and minor injury), this study drew the factors affecting accidents by a comparative analysis employing an ordered probit model, removed the variables that would not secure significance sequentially to construct a model with high explanatory power regarding the factors affecting the severity of motorcycle accidents, and calculated the marginal effect of each factor to understand the degree of each factor's impact on the severity. First, Model 1 put in all variables; Model 2 was constructed by removing the variables of the road surface conditions that could not meet the level of significance (p=0.608); Model 3 was constructed by removing gender variable (p=0.423); and Model 4 was constructed finally by removing age variable (p=0.320). RESULTS : As a result of an analysis, statistically significant variables were time of occurrence, type of accident, road alignment and motorcycle displacement, and it turned out that the impacts on the severity were in the following order: a road alignment of left downhill, the type of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents and a road alignment of a flatland on the left. The significance of the models was tested using the likelihood ratio, the level of significance and suitability statistics about them, and as a result of the test, the significance level and suitability of the constructed models were all excellent. In addition, the model accuracy indicating the accuracy of a predicted value compared to that of the value actually observed was 70.3% for minor injury; 70.1% for serious injury; and 68.6% for fatal injury, and the overall accuracy was 70.2%, which was very high. CONCLUSIONS : As a result of an analysis of motorcycle accidents in Seoul through the ordered probit model and the marginal effect, it turned out that their severity increased in nighttime accidents as compared to daytime ones and gradually increased in the order of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents, motorcycle-to-person ones and the ones involving motorcycle only. As a result of an analysis, the severity of accidents in road alignments of left downhill, left flatland and straight downhill increased as compared to those in a road alignment of straight flatland and that the severity of accidents of motorcycles with a displacement larger than 50cc was higher than that of those with a displacement smaller than 50cc.

Comparison of Compton Image Reconstruction Algorithms for Estimation of Internal Radioactivity Distribution in Concrete Waste During Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plant (원전 해체 시 방사성 콘크리트 폐기물 내부 방사능 분포 예측을 위한 컴프턴 영상 재구성 방법의 비교)

  • Lee, Tae-Woong;Jo, Seong-Min;Yoon, Chang-Yeon;Kim, Nak-Jeom
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.217-225
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    • 2020
  • Concrete waste accounts for approximately 70~80% of the total waste generated during the decommissioning of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Based upon the concentration of each radionuclide, the concrete waste from the decommissioning can be used in the determination of the clearance threshold used to classify waste as radioactive. To reduce the cost of radioactive concrete waste disposal, it is important to perform decontamination before self-disposal or limited recycling. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the internal radioactivity distribution of radioactive concrete waste to ensure effective decontamination. In this study, the performance metrics of various Compton reconstruction algorithms were compared in order to identify the best strategy to estimate the internal radioactivity distribution in concrete waste during the decommissioning of NPPs. Four reconstruction algorithms, namely, simple back-projection, filtered back-projection, maximum likelihood expectation maximization (MLEM), and energy-deconvolution MLEM (E-MLEM) were used as Compton reconstruction algorithms. Subsequently, the results obtained by using these various reconstruction algorithms were compared with one another and evaluated, using quantitative evaluation methods. The MLEM and E-MLEM reconstruction algorithms exhibited the best performance in maintaining a high image resolution and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), respectively. The results of this study demonstrate the feasibility of using Compton images in the estimation of the internal radioactive distribution of concrete during the decommissioning of NPPs.

Effect of Essential and Nonessential Amino Acids in North Carolina State University (NCSU)-23 Medium on Development of Porcine In vitro Fertilized Embryos

  • Hashem, Md. Abul;Bhandari, Dilip P.;Hossein, Mohammad Shamim;Jeong, Yeon Woo;Kim, Sue;Kim, Ji-Hye;Koo, Ok-Jae;Park, Seon Mi;Lee, Eu Gine;Park, Sun Woo;Kang, Sung Keun;Lee, Byeong Chun
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.693-700
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    • 2007
  • The present study was conducted to examine the effect of different levels of essential and nonessential amino acid in NCSU-23 medium on the in vitro-produced porcine embryo as it develops from the zygote to the blastocyst stage. Four experiments were performed, each with a completely randomized design involving 5 to 8 replications of treatments. In order to know the effect of nonessential amino acids in NCSU-23 medium, 0, 5, 10 and $20{\mu}/ml$ MEM were supplemented there to, (Exp. 1) and the medium was supplemented with same level of essential amino acids (Exp. 2). The combined effect of nonessential (0, 5, 10 and $20{\mu}/ml$ MEM) and essential amino acids (0, 5, 10 and $10{\mu}/ml$ MEM) in NCSU-23 medium (Exp. 3), first 72 h with non-essential amino acids (at 0, 5, 10 and $20{\mu}/ml$ MEM), and last 4 d with essential amino acids with the same level as NEAA (Exp. 4) were examined. The embryo development was monitored and the quality of blastocysts was evaluated by counting the number of total cells and determining the ratio of inner cell mass (ICM) to trophoectoderm (TE) cells. When Eagle's nonessential amino acids (MEM) added to NCSU-23 medium, it significantly increased the likelihood of development to the 2- to 4-cell stage and subsequent blastocyst development. Supplementation of different levels of essential amino acids in the NCSU-23 medium decreased cleavage rate, rate of morula and blastocyst development and the number of ICMs. In the case of the combined effect of essential and nonessential amino acids, better and significant results were found for blastocysts, hatching blastocysts and for ICM numbers which were also dose dependent. With respect to the biphasic effect of nonessential and essential amino acids, nonessential amino acids increased cleavage whereas essential amino acids increased the total cell number. Neither the nonessential nor the essential group of amino acids, on their own, affected blastocyst cell number or the differentiation of cells in the blastocyst. In conclusion, this study determined the role of nonessential and essential amino acids in the culture of the porcine embryo and showed that the embryo requires different levels of amino acids as it develops from the zygote to the blastocyst stage.

Risk Factors of Delayed Surgical Intervention after Conservatively Treated Acute Traumatic Subdural Hematoma

  • Kwon, Hyungjoo;Choi, Kyu-Sun;Yi, Hyeong-Joong;Chun, Hyoung-Joon;Lee, Young-Jun;Kim, Dong-won
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.60 no.6
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    • pp.723-729
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    • 2017
  • Objective : Acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) is generally considered a condition that should be managed surgically. However, some patients initially receive conservative treatment, a subset of whom require surgical intervention later. This study aimed to evaluate the predictors of delayed surgical intervention in ASDH patients who are initially managed conservatively. Methods : From January 2007 to December 2015, 842 patients diagnosed with ASDH were treated at our institution. Among them, 158 patients with convexity ASDH were initially treated conservatively. Patients were divided into a delayed surgery group and a conservative group. Demographic characteristics, past medication and medical histories, and radiological and laboratory data were collected by retrospective chart review. Independent risk factors were identified with univariate and multivariate analyses. Results : Twenty-eight patients (17.7%) underwent delayed surgical intervention. Their mean age was 69.0 years, and 82.1% were male. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and heart disease prevalence and use of anti-platelet agents did not significantly differ from the conservative group. However, age (p=0.024), previous cerebral infarction history (p=0.026), increased maximal hematoma thickness (p<0.001), midline shifting (p=0.001) and accompanying subarachnoid hemorrhage (p=0.022) on initial brain computed tomography (CT) scan, low hemoglobin level (p<0.001), high leukocyte count (p=0.004), and low glucose level (p=0.002) were significantly associated with delayed surgical intervention. In multivariate analysis, increased maximal hematoma thickness (odds ratio [OR]=1.279, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.075-1.521; p=0.006), low hemoglobin level (OR=0.673, 95% CI 0.467-0.970; p=0.034), and high leukocyte count (OR=1.142, 95% CI 1.024-1.272; p=0.017) were independent risk factors for delayed surgical intervention. Conclusion : Due to the high likelihood of delayed surgical intervention among minimal ASDH patients with a thicker hematoma on initial brain CT, lower hemoglobin level, and higher leukocyte count, these patients should receive more careful observation.

Underlying Values of Real-time Traffic Information on Variable Message Sign Using Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) (조건부가치추정법을 이용한 VMS교통정보의 기본가치 추정연구)

  • Lee, Gyeong-A;Kim, Jun-Gi;O, Seong-Ho;Lee, Yeong-In
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2011
  • In the benefits of ITS, there are intangible gains from real-time traffic information as well as classical gains such as travel time saving. These intangible gains are difficult to be estimated by existing transportation investment appraisal commonly used in SOC investment. The major reason is not because of the absence of methodology but because of the absence of generalized values of particular benefits from real time traffic information. This research explores the value of real-time traffic information on VMS that is the most representative of ITS services, by using CVM with Double Bounded Dichotomous Choice Question. Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) functions of drivers are built with survival functions using various types of probability distribution functions such as Exponential, Log-logistic, and Weibull functions. The results reveal that Log-logistic distribution is the most appropriate distribution model to estimate WTP, and the estimated coefficients are stable through LR (Likelihood Ratio) test. For the further study, it is recommended to perform statistical tests of temporal and spatial transferability that is not examined in this research due to the lack of data.

Improvement of Recognition of License Plate Numbers in CCTV Images Using Reference Images (CCTV 영상에서 참조 영상을 이용한 자동차 번호판 인식률 제고)

  • Kim, Dongmin;Jang, Sangsik;Yoon, Inhye;Paik, Joonki
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.49 no.12
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    • pp.131-141
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    • 2012
  • This paper proposes a method of analyzing unrecognizable numbers of license plate images, which are degraded by various factors such as low resolution, low light level, geometric distortion, and periodic noise, to name a few. With existing vehicle license plate recognition methods, it is difficult to recognize license plate if images are not recognizable in the pre-process of removing degradation factors. Although images of license plate have not been improved to be recognizable in the pre-process, the proposed method makes it possible to recognize numbers of license by distorting pre-saved reference images of license plate numbers same as sample plates, and by assuming likelihood ratio using statistical methods. The proposed method also makes it possible to identify suspect vehicle license plate under unstable light conditions and with low resolution images that are unrecognizable by the naked eye. This method has been used in real criminal investigation to recognize numbers of license plate of criminal vehicle, and has proved to be useful as criminal evidence through experiments under various conditions.

Lifestyle and Metabolic Syndrome among Male Workers in an Electronics Research and Development Company (한 전자제품 연구소 남자 종사자들의 생활습관실천과 대사증후군의 관련성)

  • Myong, Jun-Pyo;Kim, Hyoung-Ryoul;Kim, Yong-Kyu;Koo, Jung-Wan;Park, Chung-Yill
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.331-336
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    • 2009
  • Objectives : The objectives of this study were to determine the relationship between lifestyle-implementation and metabolic syndrome in an electronics research and development company, and to provide a foundation for health providers of health management programs for setting priorities. Methods : From July 1 to July 16, 2008 we carried out a descriptive cross-sectional survey. Consecutive workers of one R & D company in Seoul, Korea (N=2,079) were enrolled in study. A checklist for lifestyle (from the National Health Insurance Corporation) consisted of questions regarding diet, drinking, smoking and exercise. After the survey, researchers obtained data from health profiles for metabolic syndrome(waist-circumference, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, blood pressure and fasting blood sugar level). Lifestyle was recorded as good or not good. Statistical analysis of metabolic syndrome and the lifestyle of subjects was done using multiple logistic regression analysis. Results : The prevalence of metabolic syndrome in our study gropu was 13.3% (N=277). After adjustment for age, the adjusted odds ratios (odds ratio, 95% confidence intervals) for metabolic syndrome increased in proportion to the number of bad habits: two (1.72, 1.23-2.44), three (2.47, 1.73-3.56), and four (3.63, 2.03-6.34). Relative to subjects eating both vegetables and meat', the OR for 'meat' eaters was 1.66 (1.18-2.31). Compared with 'nonsmokers and ever-smoker', the OR for 'current-smoker' was 1.62 (1.25-2.10). Compared with 'Healthy drinker', the OR for 'unhealthy drinker' was 1.38 (1.05-1.83). Conclusions : Poor lifestyle was associated with an increased likelihood of metabolic syndrome. These findings suggest that lifestyle-based occupational health interventions for young employees should include a specific diet, smoking cessation, and healthy-drinking programs.

Biomechanical Analysis of Different Thoracolumbar Orthosis Designs using Finite Element Method (유한요소 해석을 이용한 정형용 흉·요추 보조기의 형태에 따른 생체역학적 분석)

  • Kim, Y.H.;Jun, S.C.;Jung, D.Y.;Lee, S.J.
    • Journal of rehabilitation welfare engineering & assistive technology
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.45-50
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    • 2012
  • Thoracolumbar orthosis has been used for the rehabilitation of the patients with senile kyphosis. Recently, a number of different thoracolumbar orthosis designs have been introduced but its biomechanical effectiveness still remain unknown. In this study, we compared the pressure distribution on the surface of the trunk and stresses on the orthosis in relation to changes in connecting frame designs (Type 1, one-connecting frame type; Type 2, two-connecting frame type; Type 3, all-in-one type) using finite element (FE) models under different motions of the trunk. The results showed that Type 3 distributed the pressure on the trunk most evenly followed by Type 2 and Type 1 and the difference between Type 1 and Type 2 was negligible. ROM was limited most effectively by Type 3 ($8.5{\sim}9.4^{\circ}$), followed by Type 2 ($11.3{\sim}13.9^{\circ}$) and Type 1 ($12.1{\sim}15.4^{\circ}$). The ratio between the peak von Mises stress and yield strength of each material remained less than 20% regardless of orthosis type indicating low likelihood of component failure. In conclusion, our study found that all-in-one type of orthosis was the most effective design for the conservative treatment of spinal deformity in terms of function and comfort.

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