• Title/Summary/Keyword: Likelihood Analysis

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Analysis on the Likelihood of Axisymmetric Wave Propagation in Buried Water Pipes (지하매설 배관의 축대칭 파동 전파 가능성 해석)

  • Park, Kyung-Jo
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.36-41
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    • 2013
  • A study of the possible axisymmetric modes that propagate at low frequencies in buried, water-filled pipes is presented. It is well known that for a vacuum-pipe-vacuum system the sole non-torsional axisymmetric mode that exists at low frequencies is the fundamental L(0,1) mode. When a pipe is filled with water and still surrounded by a vacuum it is also known that another mode then appears which at low frequencies is characterized by predominantly axial water-borne displacements. In addition to these modes. this paper explores two other, less well known axisymmetric modes whose exitence depends on the acoustic properties of the outer medium that surrounds a pipe. The predicted characteristics of these modes are presented and the likelihood of them propagating over any significant distance in a buried water pipe is discussed.

Estimation of parameters including a quadratic failure rate semi-Markov reliability model

  • El-Gohary, A.;Alshamrani, A.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2011
  • This paper discusses the stochastic analysis and the statistical inference of a quadratic failure rate semi-Markov reliability model. Maximum likelihood procedure will be used to obtain the estimators of the parameters included in this reliability model. Based on the assumption that the lifetime and repair time of the system units are random variables with quadratic failure rate, the reliability function of this system is obtained. Also, the distribution of the first passage time of this system is derived. Many important special cases are discussed.

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Piecewise Weibull Model with Covariates (와이블 모형의 모수 추정에서 분할법의 효율성)

  • Chung, Dae-Hyun;Kim, Ju-Sung;Won, Dong-Yu
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.295-302
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    • 2000
  • We study the efficient method to estimate the parameters for the Weibull model with covariates which occupies an important position in survival analysis. A treatment period may be divided by the stages of treatments under the different treatment arams. The piecewise method is considered to obtain the estimators of the parameters by maximum likelihood method. We explore the real data to show that the piecewise is more efficient than the nonpiecewise to estimate the parameters.

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Using R Software for Reliability Data Analysis

  • Shaffer, Leslie B.;Young, Timothy M.;Guess, Frank M.;Bensmail, Halima;Leon, Ramon V.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.53-70
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we discuss the plethora of uses for the software package R, and focus specifically on its helpful applications in reliability data analyses. Examples are presented; including the R coding protocol, R code, and plots for various statistical as well as reliability analyses. We explore Kaplan-Meier estimates and maximum likelihood estimation for distributions including the Weibull. Finally, we discuss future applications of R, and usages of quantile regression in reliability.

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A Study on the Communication Strategy to Risk Management of Agri-marine Products Distribution Policy (농수산물 유통정책의 위기관리에 따른 커뮤니케이션전략에 관한 연구 - 유통정책 갈등해소에 대한 스캐닝, 모니터링을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Man-Ki
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 2008
  • The present study attempted to explore effective scanning and monitoring in process of risk management on agri-marine products distribution policy. The interest public's group interests clash in accordance with theme for issue on marking policy. For executing a better systematic scanning and monitoring on actual affairs of marketing, selecting information personnel, gathering and analysing information, issue and risk management and their valuation with ongoing and simultaneously. Especially, In order to explore effective scanning and monitoring as a model of risk management, the study attempted to analyze within and without environment of marketing, to analyze issue management strategy, to evaluate issue activity for likelihood and impact, risk cycle analysis, interest public's group concerned, grade of interest public's group threatened(power, legitimacy, willingness), rapport(staying close, credibility, meeting expectation). And the study make an ongoing observation progress of subjects, and the serious subjects need have made an close observation. The study suggested to establish friendly relationship between organization and interest public's group, and to regularly accomplish two-way symmetric communication.

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Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the Corrosion of High Temperature $H_2S/H_2$ through Risk Based-Inspection (위험기반검사에서 고온 $H_2S/H_2$ 부식에 의한 사고발생 가능성 해석)

  • Lee Hern-Chang;Lee Joong-Hee;Kim Tae-Ok
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2006
  • The likelihood of failure by the corrosion of high temperature $H_2S/H_2$, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based-inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the corrosion rate was increased as temperature and $H_2S$ concentration were increased. Also, the technical module subfactor(TMSF) was increased as an used you increased, material thickness decreased, inspection number decreased, and inspection effectiveness increased. In these conditions, the maximum value of TMSF was not varied, but the TMSF was sensitively varied at low temperature for high concentration of $H_2S$.

Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the Stress Corrosion Cracking by Caustic Cracking through the Quantitative Risk Based-Inspection using API-581 BRD (API-581 절차에 의한 정량적 위험기반검사에서 부식성 균열에 의한 응력부식의 사고발생 가능성 해석)

  • Lee, Hern-Chang;Choi, Sung-Kyu;Cho, Ji-Hoon;Ham, Byung-Ho;Kim, Tae-Ok
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2007
  • The likelihood of failure for the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of caustic cracking, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based-inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that SCC of the caustic cracking was occurred above 5 % NaOH concentration, and the technical module subfactor (TMSF) was maximized for above 50 % concentration. The heat traced and monitoring were not sensitive to the TMSF with NaOH concentration and temperature. But the steam out was more of less affect minimum value of the TMSF. Also, the inspection number, the inspection effectiveness, and the year since inspection were very sensitive to the TMSF with NaOH concentration and temperature. Therefore, the plan of next inspection will be established with compositively considering those at once.

Frequent Internet Pornography Use: Korean Adolescents' Internet Use Time, Mental Health, Sexual Behavior, and Delinquency

  • Cho, Eunsuk
    • International Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2016
  • This study was to understand associated factors with frequent exposure to Internet pornography among Korean adolescents. We used data (N = 45,783) from the 2012 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey to examine demographics, family environmental variables, Internet use time, mental health indicators, sexual behavior, and delinquency among Korean adolescents identified as frequent users of Internet pornography. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that frequent users of Internet pornography were more likely to be older males with differences in living arrangements and perceived economic status of the family. They were heavy Internet users with mental health issues, such as a higher likelihood of sadness, suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, high stress, and a lower likelihood of feeling happiness. Their higher probability of exploratory (OR =1.79-4.60), and high-risk sexual behavior (OR = 2.20-7.46), and other delinquencies (OR = 1.74-7.68) requires more attention from public health professionals.

Parameters Estimation of Generalized Linear Failure Rate Semi-Markov Reliability Models

  • El-Gohary, A.;Al-Khedhair, A.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2010
  • In this paper we will discuss the stochastic analysis of a three state semi-Markov reliability model. Maximum likelihood procedure will be used to obtain the estimators of the parameters included in this reliability model. Based on the assumption that the lifetime and repair time of the system units are generalized linear failure rate random variables, the reliability function of this system is obtained. Also, the distribution of the first passage time of this system will be derived. Some important special cases are discussed.

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Bivariate Dagum distribution

  • Muhammed, Hiba Z.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2017
  • Abstract. Camilo Dagum proposed several variants of a new model for the size distribution of personal income in a series of papers in the 1970s. He traced the genesis of the Dagum distributions in applied economics and points out parallel developments in several branches of the applied statistics literature. The main aim of this paper is to define a bivariate Dagum distribution so that the marginals have Dagum distributions. It is observed that the joint probability density function and the joint cumulative distribution function can be expressed in closed forms. Several properties of this distribution such as marginals, conditional distributions and product moments have been discussed. The maximum likelihood estimates for the unknown parameters of this distribution and their approximate variance-covariance matrix have been obtained. Some simulations have been performed to see the performances of the MLEs. One data analysis has been performed for illustrative purpose.

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