• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.187-190
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• 2003

Since the early 1980s, the concept of relationship management in marketing area has gained its importance. Acquiring and retaining the most profitable customers are serious concerns of a company to perform more targeted marketing campaigns. For effective CRM (Customer Relationship Management), it is important to gather information on customer value. Many researches have been performed to calculate customer value based on CLV (Customer Lifetime Value). It, however, has some limitations. It is difficult to consider the churn of customers, because the previous prediction models have focused mainly on expected future cash flow derived from customers'past profit contribution. In this paper we suggest a CLV model considering past profit contribution, potential benefit, and churn probability of a customer. We also cover a framework for analyzing customer value and segmenting customers based on their value. Customer value is classified into three categories: current value, potential value and customer loyalty. Customers are segmented according to the three categories of customer value. A case study on calculating customer value of a wireless communication company will be illustrated.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.343-350
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• 2016

Remaining lifetime prediction of the underground gas pipeline plays a key role in maintenance planning and public safety. One of main causes in the pipeline failure is metal corrosion. This paper deals with estimating the pipeline reliability in the presence of corrosion defects. Because a pipeline has uncertainty and variability in its operation, probabilistic approximation approaches such as first order second moment (FOSM), first order reliability method (FORM), second order reliability method (SORM), and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are widely employed for pipeline reliability predictions. This paper presents a fuzzy inference based reliability method (FIRM). Compared with existing methods, a distinction of our method is to incorporate a fuzzy inference into quantifying degrees of variability in corrosion defects. As metal corrosion depends on the service environment, this feature makes it easier to obtain practical predictions. Numerical experiments are conducted by using a field dataset. The result indicates that the proposed method works well and, in particular, it provides more advisory estimations of the remaining lifetime of the gas pipeline.

• International Journal of Automotive Technology
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.9-16
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• 2001

The lifetime of power train components can be improved dramatically by finding crack initiation points with suitable software tools and optimization of the critical areas. With increasing capacities of computers the prediction of the lifetime for components by numerical methods gets more and more important. This paper discusses some applications of the outstanding fatigue simulation program FEMFAT supporting the assessment of uniaxially and multiaxially loaded components (as well as welding seams and spot joints). The theory applied in FEMFAT differs in some aspects from classical approaches like the nominal stress concept or the local one and can be characterized by the term "influence parameter method". The specimen S/N-curve is locally modified by different influence parameters as stress-gradient to take into account notch effects, mean-stress influence which is quantified by means of a Haigh-diagram, surface roughness and treatments, temperature, technological size, etc. It is possible to consider plastic deformations resulting in mean-stress rearrangements. The dynamic loading of power train components is very often multiaxial, e.g. the stress state at each time is not proportional to one single stress state. Hence, the directions of the principal axes vary with time. We will present the way how such complex load situations can be handled with FEMFAT by the examples of a crank case and a gear box.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.107-115
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• 2018

To ensure the structural integrity of nuclear power plants, it is essential to predict the lifetime of Alloy 182 weld, which is used for welding in nuclear reactors. The lifetime of Alloy 182 weld is directly related to the crack initiation time. Owing to the large time scatter in most crack initiation tests, a probabilistic model, such as the Weibull distribution, has mainly been adopted for prediction. However, since statistically more advanced methods than current typical methods may be applied, we suggest a statistical procedure for parameter estimation of the crack initiation time of Alloy 182 weld, considering right-censored data and the covariate effect. Furthermore, we suggest a procedure for uncertainty evaluation of the estimators based on the bootstrap method. The suggested statistical procedure can be applied not only to Alloy 182 weld but also to any material degradation data set including right-censored data with covariate effect.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.7-14
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• 2014

Inverter module, which feeds the converted power to the traction motor for EMU. Consists of the power semiconductors with their gate drive unit(GDU)s and the control computer for driving, voltage, current and speed controls. Electrolytic condenser, connected to the gate drive unit and a core component to drive the power semiconductor, has problems such as reduction in lifetime and malfunction caused by electrical and mechanical characteristic changes from heat generation during high speed switching for generation of stable power. In this study, To check the service life of electrolytic condenser, the test was carried out in two ways. First, In the case of accelerated life testing of condenser, the Arrhenius model is a way of life testing. Another way is to analyze the reliability of the failure data by the method of parametric data analysis. Eventually, life time by accelerated life test than a method of failure data analysis(Weibull distribution) was found to be slightly larger output.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.38 no.11
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• pp.1221-1229
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• 2014

This paper proposes an approach for predicting the fatigue life of a propeller shaft of a forklift truck by an accelerated life test method. The accelerated life test method adopted in this study is the calibrated accelerated life test, which is highly effective in the prediction of the lifetime and enables significant reduction of the test time as well as a quantification of reliability in the case of small sample sizes. First, the fatigue test was performed under two high stress levels, and then, it was performed by setting low stress levels in consideration of the available test time and extrapolation. Major reliability parameters such as the lifetime, accelerated power index, and shape parameter were obtained experimentally, and the experimentally predicted lifetime of the propeller shaft was verified through comparison with results of an analysis of load spectrum data under actual operating conditions.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.108-115
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• 2003

Bridges are rated at two levels by either Load Factor Design (LFD) or Allowable Stress Design (ASD). The lower level rating is called Inventory Rating and the upper level rating is called Operating Rating. To maintain bridges effectively, there is an urgent need to assess actual bridge loading carrying capacity and to predict their remaining life from a system reliability viewpoint. The lifetime functions are introduced and explained to predict the time-dependent failure probability. The bridge studied in this paper was built 30 years ago in rural area. For this bridge, the load test and rehabilitation were conducted. The time-dependent system failure probability is predicted with or without rehabilitation. As a case study, an optional rehabilitation is suggested, and fir this rehabilitation, load rating is computed and the time-dependent system failure probability is predicted. Based on rehabilitation costs and extended service lifes, the optimal rehabilitation is suggested.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.33 no.10
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• pp.829-835
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• 2016

Electro-Mechanical Actuator installed on the aircraft plays a key role in an aircraft's flight control through flight control computer. Reliable prediction of the actuator is important for the aircraft. To estimate the lifetime of a product, it is necessary to test full target life. However, it is very difficult to perform it due to the long life time of actuator but short period of development time with increasing cost. Therefore, accelerated life test has been used to reduce the test time for various reasons such as reducing product's development cycle and cost. In this paper, to predict the lifetime of the actuator, we analyzed the flight profile of aircraft and adapted the method of accelerated life test in order to accelerate failure modes that might occur under user conditions. We also set up an endurance test equipment for validating the demanded lifetime of an actuator and performed accelerated life test.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.142-148
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• 2015

Due to advancements in technology and manufacturing capability, it is not uncommon that life tests yield no or few failures at low stress levels. In these situations it is difficult to analyse lifetime data and make meaningful inferences about product or system reliability. For some products or systems whose performance characteristics degrade over time, a failure is said to have occurred when a performance characteristic crosses a critical threshold. The measurements of the degradation characteristic contain much useful and credible information about product or system reliability. Degradation measurements of the performance characteristics of an unfailed unit at different times can directly relate reliability measures to physical characteristics. Reliability prediction based on physical performance measures can be an efficient and alternative method to estimate for some highly reliable parts or systems. If the degradation process and the distance between the last measurement and a specified threshold can be established, the remaining useful life is predicted in advance. In turn, this prediction leads to just in time maintenance decision to protect systems. In this paper, we describe techniques for mapping product or system which has degrading performance parameter to the associated classical reliability measures in the performance domain. This paper described a general modeling and analysis procedure for reliability prediction based on one dominant degradation performance characteristic considering pseudo degradation performance life trend model. This pseudo degradation trend model is based on probability modeling of a failure mechanism degradation trend and comparison of a projected distribution to pre-defined critical soft failure point in time or cycle.

• Analytical Science and Technology
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.148-157
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• 2008

To describe the lifetime prediction of gas turbine core parts serviced in some ten thousands rpms at over $1,000^{\circ}C$, the Larson-Miller Creep Curves, which are formed by creep rupture tests as the destructive experiment with parameters of stress and temperature, are used often, but not exact and reliable with errors of over some tens. On the other hand, this study shows a non-destructive method with increased accuracy and reliability. The SEM and TEM specimens were extracted by replica after polishing the local airfoil and root surfaces of the first stage scraped blade (bucket), serviced for 18,000 hours at $1,280^{\circ}C$ in Gas Turbines of Boryong. The observed TEM and SEM precipitates were digitalized for calculation of the average size. Here we could find the precipitate size grown from $0.45{\mu}m$ to $0.6{\mu}m$ during service and the grown precipitates to be still sound. From these results we could conclude that the scraped balde can be used for ten thous and hours additionally and for twenty thousand hours by additional heat treatments on the scraped blade.