• Title/Summary/Keyword: Lifetime Analysis

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Benefit-Cost Analysis and Sustainability of National Pension (국민연금의 수급부담구조분석과 지속가능성)

  • Kim, Seongyong;Bang, Junho;Park, Yousung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.603-620
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    • 2015
  • The National Pension of Korea is a public social security system designed to alleviate social risks and poverty that has had a major impact on the quality of life for the aging population. However, a rapidly aging population and low fertility threaten the sustainability of national pension in Korea. The National Pension Research Institute publishes a nancial projection every ve years; consequently, the government has lowered the entitlements for the sustainability of national pension based on the projection results. The current reform of the pension system that arbitrarily reduces the entitlements might detract from the income security role of the national pension for pensioners without accounting for the highest elderly poverty rate in the OECD countries. We first discuss methods for the financial projection of the national pension in terms of population, subscribers, and pensioner projections in order to estimate the pension reserve fund and the financial depletion year. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis for population variables, institutional variables, and economic variables based on pension reserves and the financial depletion year. We evaluate intergenerational fairness between the income hierarchy by conducting a money's worth analysis. Finally, we investigate the possibility of the sustainability of national pension by adjusting pension contributions and entitlements (income replacement rate). A new dependency ratio shows that a simple reform of the national pension does not secure the sustainability of the national pension without adapting a pay-as-you-go system.

A Study on the Electromigration Characteristics in Ag, Cu, Au, Al Thin Films (Ag, Cu, Au, Al 박막에서 엘렉트로마이그레이션 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2006
  • Recent ULSI and multilevel structure trends in microelectronic devices minimize the line width down to less than $0.25{\mu}m$, which results in high current densities in thin film interconnections. Under high current densities, an EM(electromigration) induced failure becomes one of the critical problems in a microelectronic device. This study is to improve thin film interconnection materials by investigating the EM characteristics in Ag, Cu, Au, and Al thin films, etc. EM resistance characteristics of Ag, Cu, Au, and Al thin films with high electrical conductivities were investigated by measuring the activation energies from the TTF (Time-to-Failure) analysis. Optical microscope and XPS (X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy) analysis were used for the failure analysis in thin films. Cu thin films showed relatively high activation energy for the electromigration. Thus Cu thin films may be potentially good candidate for the next choice of advanced thin film interconnection materials where high current density and good EM resitance are required. Passivated Al thin films showed the increased MTF(Mean-time-to-Failure) values, that is, the increased EM resistance characteristics due to the dielectric passivation effects at the interface between the dielectric overlayer and the thin film interconnection materials.

Design Improvements for Preventing Crack of Equipment Mounting Structure in Rotary Wing Aircraft (회전익 항공기의 장비 장착 지지 구조물의 균열 방지를 위한 설계 개선)

  • Bang, Daehan;Lee, Sook;Lee, Sanghoon;Choi, Sangmin
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.28-35
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents the design improvements made for the crack which is in the mounting structure of the mechanical structure of rotary wing aircraft. The doubler added to the mounting structure of rotary wing aircraft was designed and manufactured based on the load at the development stage, and a crack was found in the surface of doubler at a certain point during the operation of the aircraft. To identify the cause of the crack, the initial deformation of the structure, which may occur as a result of fastening condition, was considered and the dynamic analysis of the natural frequency of the structure comparing to the blade passing frequency of the aircraft were additionally reviewed. As a result of this study, a shim was added to remove the physical gap of the fastening area, and a doubler with thickened reinforcement was installed. The increase of structural strength is shown by reviewing the results of dynamic analysis for the structural verification of the improved design, and the fatigue evaluation complied to the requirement of the aircraft lifetime.

Black Hispanic and Black Non-Hispanic Breast Cancer Survival Data Analysis with Half-normal Model Application

  • Khan, Hafiz Mohammad Rafiqullah;Saxena, Anshul;Vera, Veronica;Abdool-Ghany, Faheema;Gabbidon, Kemesha;Perea, Nancy;Stewart, Tiffanie Shauna-Jeanne;Ramamoorthy, Venkataraghavan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.21
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    • pp.9453-9458
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    • 2014
  • Background: Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death for women in the United States. Differences in survival of breast cancer have been noted among racial and ethnic groups, but the reasons for these disparities remain unclear. This study presents the characteristics and the survival curve of two racial and ethnic groups and evaluates the effects of race on survival times by measuring the lifetime data-based half-normal model. Materials and Methods: The distributions among racial and ethnic groups are compared using female breast cancer patients from nine states in the country all taken from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry. The main end points observed are: age at diagnosis, survival time in months, and marital status. The right skewed half-normal statistical probability model is used to show the differences in the survival times between black Hispanic (BH) and black non-Hispanic (BNH) female breast cancer patients. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard ratio are used to estimate and compare the relative risk of death in two minority groups, BH and BNH. Results: A probability random sample method was used to select representative samples from BNH and BH female breast cancer patients, who were diagnosed during the years of 1973-2009 in the United States. The sample contained 1,000 BNH and 298 BH female breast cancer patients. The median age at diagnosis was 57.75 years among BNH and 54.11 years among BH. The results of the half-normal model showed that the survival times formed positive skewed models with higher variability in BNH compared with BH. The Kaplan-Meir estimate was used to plot the survival curves for cancer patients; this test was positively skewed. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard ratio for survival analysis showed that BNH had a significantly longer survival time as compared to BH which is consistent with the results of the half-normal model. Conclusions: The findings with the proposed model strategy will assist in the healthcare field to measure future outcomes for BH and BNH, given their past history and conditions. These findings may provide an enhanced and improved outlook for the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer patients in the United States.

Numerical Fatigue Life Prediction of IGBT Module for Electronic Locomotive (수치해석을 이용한 전동차용 IGBT 모듈의 피로 수명 예측)

  • Kwon, Oh Young;Jang, Young Moon;Lee, Young-ho;Choa, Sung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Microelectronics and Packaging Society
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the thermomechanical stress and fatigue analysis of a high voltage and high current (3,300 V/1200 A) insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) module used for electric locomotive applications were performed under thermal cycling condition. Especially, the reliability of the copper wire and the ribbon wire were compared with that of the conventional aluminum wire. The copper wire showed three times higher stress than the aluminum wire. The ribbon type wire showed a higher stress than the circular type wire, and the copper ribbon wire showed the highest stress. The fatigue analysis results of the chip solder connecting the chip and the direct bond copper (DBC) indicated that the crack of the solder mainly occurred at the outer edge of the solder. In case of the circular wire, cracking of the solder occurred at 35,000 thermal cycles, and the crack area in the copper wire was larger than that of the aluminum wire. On the other hand, when the ribbon wire was used, the crack area was smaller than that of the circular wire. In case of the solder existing between DBC and base plate, the crack growth rate was similar regardless of the material and shape of the wire. However, cracking occurred earlier than chip solder, and more than half of the solder was failed at 40,000 cycles. Therefore, it is expected that the reliability of the solder between DBC and base plate would be worse than the chip solder.

Change of Fractured Rock Permeability due to Thermo-Mechanical Loading of a Deep Geological Repository for Nuclear Waste - a Study on a Candidate Site in Forsmark, Sweden

  • Min, Ki-Bok;Stephansson, Ove
    • Proceedings of the Korean Radioactive Waste Society Conference
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    • 2009.06a
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    • pp.187-187
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    • 2009
  • Opening of fractures induced by shear dilation or normal deformation can be a significant source of fracture permeability change in fractured rock, which is important for the performance assessment of geological repositories for spent nuclear fuel. As the repository generates heat and later cools the fluid-carrying ability of the rocks becomes a dynamic variable during the lifespan of the repository. Heating causes expansion of the rock close to the repository and, at the same time, contraction close to the surface. During the cooling phase of the repository, the opposite takes place. Heating and cooling together with the, virgin stress can induce shear dilation of fractures and deformation zones and change the flow field around the repository. The objectives of this work are to examine the contribution of thermal stress to the shear slip of fracture in mid- and far-field around a KBS-3 type of repository and to investigate the effect of evolution of stress on the rock mass permeability. In the first part of this study, zones of fracture shear slip were examined by conducting a three-dimensional, thermo-mechanical analysis of a spent fuel repository model in the size of 2 km $\times$ 2 km $\times$ 800 m. Stress evolutions of importance for fracture shear slip are: (1) comparatively high horizontal compressive thermal stress at the repository level, (2) generation of vertical tensile thermal stress right above the repository, (3) horizontal tensile stress near the surface, which can induce tensile failure, and generation of shear stresses at the comers of the repository. In the second part of the study, fracture data from Forsmark, Sweden is used to establish fracture network models (DFN). Stress paths obtained from the thermo-mechanical analysis were used as boundary conditions in DFN-DEM (Discrete Element Method) analysis of six DFN models at the repository level. Increases of permeability up to a factor of four were observed during thermal loading history and shear dilation of fractures was not recovered after cooling of the repository. An understanding of the stress path and potential areas of slip induced shear dilation and related permeability changes during the lifetime of a repository for spent nuclear fuel is of utmost importance for analysing long-term safety. The result of this study will assist in identifying critical areas around a repository where fracture shear slip is likely to develop. The presentation also includes a brief introduction to the ongoing site investigation on two candidate sites for geological repository in Sweden.

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Unveiling dietary lifestyle of a Joseon-era mummy by extracting isotopic information from hair and bone (조선시대 회곽묘 출토 미이라의 안정동위원소 분석으로 생애 주기에 따른 식생활 변화 추적)

  • Kang, Da Young;Shin, Ji Young
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.300-306
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    • 2012
  • This study reports the stable carbon and nitrogen isotope of mummy, the preserved human time capsule from Joseon Dynasty. The stable isotopic composition of biological tissue is expected to be a direct and constant function of diet because the stable isotope ratios do not decay or change in abundance through time. Over the past three decades, stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis has been extensively applied for archaeological topics. However, this is the first case in Korean mummy to extract palaeodietary information using stable isotope analysis. We extracted isotopic information from bone collagen and hair keratin, which reflects the lifetime average diet and short-term diet, respectively. The average values of ${\delta}^{13}C$ and ${\delta}^{15}N$ values are -19.0‰ and 11.4‰ (bone collagen), and -21.3‰ and 14.3‰ (hair keratin). Stable carbon isotope shows a mainly $C_3$-based diet from cradle to grave. On the other hand, there is significant difference in stable nitrogen isotope which implies a relatively enriched diet before death. We expect this study opens up a potential to understand the palaeodietary lifestyle in Joseon Dynasty.

Thermal Flow Analysis for Development of LED Fog Lamp for Vehicle (차량 LED 안개등 개발을 위한 열유동 해석)

  • Lee, Suk Young
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2019
  • In order to overcome these disadvantages, the halogen light source, which was previously used as a vehicle fog light, has increased power consumption and a short lifetime, and thus, an automobile light source is gradually being replaced with an LED. However, when the vehicle LED fog light is turned on, there is a disadvantage in reducing the life of the fog lamp due to the high heat generated from the LED. The heat generated by the LED inside the fog lamp is mainly emitted by the heatsink, but most of the remaining heat is released to the outside through convection. When cooling efficiency decreases due to convection, thermal energy generates heat to lenses, reflectors, and bezels, which are the main parts of lamps, or generates high temperatures in LED, thereby shortening the life of LED fog lights. In this study, we tried to improve the heat dissipation performance by convection in addition to the heat dissipation method by heat sink, and to determine the installation location of vents that can discharge the internal air or intake the external air of LED fog lamp for vehicle. Thermal fluid analysis was performed to ensure that the optimal data were reflected in the design. The average velocity of air increased in the order of Case3 and Case2 compared to Case1, which is the existing prototype, and the increase rate of Case3 was relatively higher than that of other cases. This is because the vents installed above and below the fog lamps induce the convective phenomena generated according to the temperature difference, and the heat is efficiently discharged with the increase of the air speed.

Design of an Integrated Monitoring System for Constructional Structures Based on Mobile Cloud in Traditional Towns with Local Heritage

  • Min, Byung-Won;Oh, Sang-Hoon;Oh, Yong-Sun;Okazaki, Yasuhisa;Yoo, Jae-Soo;Park, Sun-Gyu;Noh, Hwang-Woo
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 2015
  • Sensors, equipment, ICT facilities and their corresponding software have a relatively short lifetime relative to that of constructional structure, so these devices have to be continuously fixed or exchanged during maintenance and management. Furthermore, software or analysis tools should be periodically upgraded according to advances in ICT and analysis technology. Conventional monitoring systems have serious problems in that it is difficult for site engineers to modify or upgrade hardware and analysis algorithms. Moreover, we depend on the original system developer when we want to modify or upgrade inner program structures. In this paper, we propose a novel design for integrated maintenance and management of a monitoring system by applying the mobile cloud concept. The system is intended for use in disaster prevention of constructional structures, including bridges, tunnels, and in traditional buildings in a local heritage village, we analyze the status of these structures over a long term or a short-term period as well as in disaster situations. Data are collected over a mobile cloud and future expectations are analyzed according to probabilistic and statistical techniques. We implement our integrated monitoring system to solve the existing problems mentioned above. The final goal of this study is to design and implement a monitoring system for more than 10,000 structures spread within Korea. Furthermore, we can specifically apply the monitoring system presented here to a bridge made from timber in Asan Oeam Village and a traditional house in Andong Hahoe Village to monitor for possible disasters. The entire system design and implementation can be developed on the LinkSaaS platform and the monitoring services can also be implemented on the platform. We prove that the proposed system has good performance by performing a TTA authentication test, web accommodation test, and operation test using emulated data.

Analysis of High-Temperature Corrosion of Heat Exchanger Tubes in Biomass Circulating Fluidized Bed Boiler (바이오매스 순환유동층 보일러의 열교환기 고온 부식 특성)

  • Yujin Choi;Dal-hee Bae;Doyeon Lee
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.61 no.3
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    • pp.419-425
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    • 2023
  • This paper presents the research results of analyzing the high-temperature corrosion characteristics of three currently commercialized heat exchanger tube materials under actual operating conditions of a biomass power plant. In order to precisely analyze the high-temperature corrosion characteristics of these materials, a high-temperature corrosion evaluation device was installed in the power plant equipment, which allows for adjusting the surface temperature of the heat exchanger tubes. Experiments were conducted for approximately 300 hours under various temperature and operating conditions. In this study, the commercialized heat exchanger tube materials used were SA213T12, SA213T22, and SA213T91 alloys. In order to objectively analyze the high-temperature corrosion characteristics of each material, an international standard-based process to remove corrosion products was applied to obtain the weight change of the specimens, and the average thickness loss and corrosion rate were derived. Thus, the high-temperature corrosion results for each condition were quantitatively compared and analyzed. In addition, in order to increase the reliability of the high-temperature corrosion evaluation method introduced in this study, the surface and cross-sectional corrosion of the specimens were confirmed by using scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray analysis. Based on these analysis results, it was found that the corrosion resistance of the commercial heat exchanger materials increases as the content of chrome and nickel in the composition increases. Additionally, it was found that the corrosion phenomenon is rapidly accelerated as the surface temperature increases. Finally, the replacement period (lifetime) of the heat exchanger tubes under each condition could be inferred through this study.