• Title/Summary/Keyword: Lifespan Prediction

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Life Analysis and Reliability Prediction of Micro Switches based on Life Prediction Method (수명예측 방법에 따른 마이크로스위치의 수명분석 및 신뢰도 예측)

  • Ji, Jeoung-Geon;Shin, Kun-Young;Lee, Duk-Gyu;Son, Young-Jin;Lee, Hi-Sung
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.10a
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    • pp.14-21
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    • 2011
  • Reliability means that a product maintains its initial quality and performance at certain period of time(time, distance, cycle etc) under given condition without failure. Given conditions include both environmental condition and operating condition. Environmental condition means common natural environment such as temperature, humidity, vibration, and working condition means artificial environment such as voltage, current load, install place, hours of use, which occurs during using the product. In the field of railway vehicles, although components of railway vehicles with reliability are the trend of mandatory as persisting period of railway vehicles is extended, using components of railway vehicles is insufficient for the practical reliability assessment. but the meaning of the first railway operating agnecy to acquire the parts in the field, the data suggest the reliability of products if you can and can show the reliability of modular units and modular units can provide the reliability of if you can present reliability of the entire system is thought to be here. In this study, lifespan of micro-switch for master controller is analyzed and prediction is performed based on its field data considering the special circumstances of railway vehicles operating agency, such as a large number of trains operates on the same line.

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Life Analysis and Reliability Prediction of Micro-Switches based on Life Prediction Method (수명예측 방법에 따른 마이크로스위치의 수명분석 및 신뢰도 예측)

  • Ji, Jung-Geon;Shin, Kun-Young;Lee, Duk-Gyu;Lee, Hi Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.57-69
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    • 2011
  • Reliability means that a product maintains its initial quality and performance at certain period of time(time, distance, cycle etc) under given condition without failure. Given conditions include both environmental condition and operating condition. Environmental condition means common natural environment such as temperature, humidity, vibration, and working condition means artificial environment such as voltage, current load, install place, hours of use, which occurs during using the product. In the field of railway vehicles, although components of railway vehicles with reliability are the trend of mandatory as persisting period of railway vehicles is extended, using components of railway vehicles is insufficient for the practical reliability assessment. but the meaning of the first railway operating agency to acquire the parts in the field, the data suggest the reliability of products if you can and can show the reliability of modular units and modular units can provide the reliability of if you can present reliability of the entire system is thought to be here In this study, lifespan of micro-switch for master controller is analyzed and prediction is performed based on its field data considering the special circumstances of railway vehicles operating agency, such as a large number of trains operates on the same line.

A method for optimizing lifetime prediction of a storage device using the frequency of occurrence of defects in NAND flash memory (낸드 플래시 메모리의 불량 발생빈도를 이용한 저장장치의 수명 예측 최적화 방법)

  • Lee, Hyun-Seob
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.9-14
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    • 2021
  • In computing systems that require high reliability, the method of predicting the lifetime of a storage device is one of the important factors for system management because it can maximize usability as well as data protection. The life of a solid state drive (SSD) that has recently been used as a storage device in several storage systems is linked to the life of the NAND flash memory that constitutes it. Therefore, in a storage system configured using an SSD, a method of accurately and efficiently predicting the lifespan of a NAND flash memory is required. In this paper, a method for optimizing the lifetime prediction of a flash memory-based storage device using the frequency of NAND flash memory failure is proposed. For this, we design a cost matrix to collect the frequency of defects that occur when processing data in units of Drive Writes Per Day (DWPD). In addition, a method of predicting the remaining cost to the slope where the life-long finish occurs using the Gradient Descent method is proposed. Finally, we proved the excellence of the proposed idea when any defect occurs with simulation.

Lifetime Prediction of Existing Highway Bridges Using System Reliability Approach (실제 교량의 시스템 신뢰성해석에 기초한 수명예측)

  • Yang, Seung Ie
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.365-373
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, the system reliability concept was presented to predict the lifespan of bridges. Lifetime distribution functions (survivor functions) were used to model real bridges to predict their remaining life. Using the system reliability concept and lifetime distribution functions (survivor functions), a program called LIFETIME was developed. The survivor functions give the reliability of component at time t. The program was applied to an existing Colorado state highway bridge to predict the failure probability of the time-dependent system. The bridge was modeled as a system, with failure probability computed using time-dependent deteriorating models.

Prediction of Service Life of The Rubber Fender (고무 방현재의 사용 수명 예측)

  • Lee, Se-Hee;Park, Jun-Hyung;Kim, Gwang-Sub
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.87-100
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    • 2008
  • The rubber fender is used to absorb the berthing energy that is produced when a ship is near a port, and it prevents collision between the ship and port. If the rubber fender becomes defective, the berthing energy cannot be absorbed when it is near the port, and damage can result from collisions due to the hardening process. In this research, when the rubber fender is heated, collisions can cause cracks and other damage. It is also confirmed from the research the lifetime distribution of the rubber fender. The researcher has predicted using different variables and elongation that a rubber fender has an 11year lifespan at $20^{\circ}C$.

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Comparison of the Machine Learning Models Predicting Lithium-ion Battery Capacity for Remaining Useful Life Estimation (리튬이온 배터리 수명추정을 위한 용량예측 머신러닝 모델의 성능 비교)

  • Yoo, Sangwoo;Shin, Yongbeom;Shin, Dongil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.91-97
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    • 2020
  • Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) have a longer lifespan, higher energy density, and lower self-discharge rates than other batteries, therefore, they are preferred as an Energy Storage System (ESS). However, during years 2017-2019, 28 ESS fire accidents occurred in Korea, and accurate capacity estimation of LIB is essential to ensure safety and reliability during operations. In this study, data-driven modeling that predicts capacity changes according to the charging cycle of LIB was conducted, and developed models were compared their performance for the selection of the optimal machine learning model, which includes the Decision Tree, Ensemble Learning Method, Support Vector Regression, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). For model training, lithium battery test data provided by NASA was used, and GPR showed the best prediction performance. Based on this study, we will develop an enhanced LIB capacity prediction and remaining useful life estimation model through additional data training, and improve the performance of anomaly detection and monitoring during operations, enabling safe and stable ESS operations.

Phenotypes of allergic diseases in children and their application in clinical situations

  • Lee, Eun;Hong, Soo-Jong
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.62 no.9
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    • pp.325-333
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    • 2019
  • Allergic diseases, including allergic rhinitis, asthma, and atopic dermatitis, are common heterogeneous diseases that encompass diverse phenotypes and different pathogeneses. Phenotype studies of allergic diseases can facilitate the identification of risk factors and their underlying pathophysiology, resulting in the application of more effective treatment, selection of better treatment responses, and prediction of prognosis for each phenotype. In the early phase of phenotype studies in allergic diseases, artificial classifications were usually performed based on clinical features, such as triggering factors or the presence of atopy, which can result in the biased classification of phenotypes and limit the characterization of heterogeneous allergic diseases. Subsequent phenotype studies have suggested more diverse phenotypes for each allergic disease using relatively unbiased statistical methods, such as cluster analysis or latent class analysis. The classifications of phenotypes in allergic diseases may overlap or be unstable over time due to their complex interactions with genetic and encountered environmental factors during the illness, which may affect the disease course and pathophysiology. In this review, diverse phenotype classifications of allergic diseases, including atopic dermatitis, asthma, and wheezing in children, allergic rhinitis, and atopy, are described. The review also discusses the applications of the results obtained from phenotype studies performed in other countries to Korean children. Consideration of changes in the characteristics of each phenotype over time in an individual's lifespan is needed in future studies.

According to Water Cement Ratio and Internal Temperature and Humidity, An Analytical Study on the Carbonation of Long-Term Concrete (물 시멘트비와 이산화탄소 농도에 따른 콘크리트의 장기 탄산화에 관한 해석적 연구)

  • Lee, Jun-Hae;Park, Dong-Cheon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2020.11a
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    • pp.188-189
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    • 2020
  • In the field of architecture, concrete and steel bars are the most common and popular combinations. The relationship between the two in a structure is a complementary good that increases in utility when consuming both materials at the same time. However, the combination of the two, which has been perceived as semi-permanent, often faces repairs or reconstruction without its lifespan reaching decades. There are a number of deterioration factors at work for the reason for this phenomenon. Among them, the neutralization of concrete in particular refers to the process in which calcium hydroxide inside concrete reacts with carbon dioxide and loses alkalinity, which creates a corrosive environment for rebars inside concrete, causing serious damage to concrete. In this study, we intend to use a multi-physical analysis program using finite element analysis method to analyze the degree of carbonation according to the internal temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide in concrete, thereby contributing to the prediction of long-term neutralization of concrete and the research related to measures for neutralization of concrete.

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A Study on the Proper Inspection Cycle Plan Through Reliability Analysis of One-Shot System (One-Shot System의 신뢰도 분석을 통한 적정 점검주기 방안 연구)

  • June-Young Lim;Hyeonju Seol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.48-54
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    • 2023
  • Guided missiles are a one-shot system that finishes their purpose after being used once, and due to the long-term storage until launch, the storage reliability is calculated during development, and performance is maintained through periodic inspections until the life cycle arrives. However, the reliability standards applied in the development of guided missiles were established by analyzing data accumulated by the United States during long-term operation in the country, and since they are different from our environment, the 00 guided missiles that have been deployed in the armed forces for more than 10 years under the premise that there is a difference from actual reliability. As a result of verifying the appropriateness of the current inspection cycle by analyzing the actual reliability of the missile, the necessity of changing the inspection period was derived because it was higher than the predicted reliability. It is proposed to build and utilize a lifespan management system that can systematically collect all data such as shooting and maintenance results by classification, and to establish a reliable reliability standard based on the accumulated data.

A Study on the Shelf-Life Prediction of the Domestic Single Base Propellants Ammunition : Based on 105mm High Explosive Propellants (국내 단기추진제 탄약의 저장수명 예측에 관한 연구 : 105미리 고폭탄 추진체를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Myoungjin;Park, Hyungju;Yang, Jaekyung;Baek, Janghyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.36-42
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    • 2014
  • Domestic 105mm HE (High Explosive) shell is composed of three parts that are Fuze, Projectile and Propellants. Among three parts, propelling charge of propellants part consists of single base propellants. It has been known that the lifespan of single base propellants is affected by a storage period. These are because Nitrocellulose (NC) which is the main component of propelling gunpowder can be naturally decomposed to unstable substances similar with other nitric acid ester. Even though it cannot be prevented fundamentally from being disassembled, a decomposition product ($NO_2$, $NO_3$, and $HNO_3$) and tranquillizer DPA (Diphenylamine) having high reactivity are added into a propellant to restrain induction of automatic catalysis by a decomposition product. The decay rate of the tranquillizer is also affected by a production rate of the decomposition product of NC. Therefore, an accurate prediction of the Self-Life is required to ensure against risks such as explosion. Hereupon, this paper presents a new methodology to estimate the shelf-life of single base propellants using data of ASRP (Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program) to domestic 105mm HE (propelling charge of propellants part). We selected four attributes that are inferred to have influence on distribution of the DPA amount in a propellant from the ASRP dataset through data mining processes. Then the selected attributes were used as independent variables in a regression analysis in order to estimate the shelf-life of single base propellants.