• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.74.2-74.2
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• 2014

We have presented a classic two-ribbon filament eruption occurred in the east side of NOAA active region 11850 at 21:00 UT on 29 September 2013. Interestingly, this filament eruption was not accompanied by any flares and just there was a slight brightening in X-rays, C1.2, associated with the eruption. An accompanying huge CME was appeared at 22:12 UT in the LASCO C2 field of view and it propagates into the interplanetary space with a speed of about 440 km/s. And the related solar proton event (S2) started at 05:05 UT and peaked at 20:05 UT on 30 September 2013. The CME arrival was recorded by the ACE spacecraft around 01:30 UT on 2 October 2013. Around the CME arrival time, the solar-wind speed reached at about 640 km/s and IMF Bz showed southward component (-27 nT). Finally, the filament eruption and the CME cause geomagnetic storm (G2) at 03:00 UT on 2 October 2013. We described the detailed evolution of the filament eruption and its related phenomena such as CME, proton event, geomegnetic storm and so on. In addition, we will discuss about the activation mechanism of the filament eruption without flares.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.76.1-76.1
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• 2014

We investigate the solar flare and CME occurrence rate and probability depending on sunspot class and its area change. These CMEs are front-side, partial and full halo CMEs associated with X-ray flares. For this we use the Solar Region Summary(SRS) from NOAA, NGDC flare catalog, and SOHO/LASCO CME catalog for 16 years (from January 1996 to December 2011). We classify each sunspot class into two sub-groups: "Large" and "Small". In addition, for each class, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot class area change: "Decrease", "Steady", and "Increase". In terms of sunspot class area, the solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities noticeably increase at compact and large sunspot groups (e.g., 'Fkc'). In terms of sunspot area change, solar flare and CME occurrence probabilities for the "Increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. For example, in case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'Dkc' class, the flare occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-group is three times higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. In case of the 'Eai' class, the CME occurrence probability of the "Increase" sub-groups is five time higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. Our results demonstrate statistically that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance solar flare and CME occurrence, especially for compact and large sunspot groups.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.55-60
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• 2009

The properties of SOHO/LASCO CMEs are subjected to projection effects. Their dependence on the source position is important to be studied. Our main aim is to study the dependence of CME properties on helio-longitude and latitude using the CMEs associated with type IIs observed by Wind/WAVES spacecraft (Deca-hecta metric type IIs - DH type IIs). These CMEs were identified as a separate population of geo-effective CMEs. We considered the CMEs associated with the Wind/WAVE type IIs observed during the period January 1997 - December 2005. The source locations of these CMEs were identified using their associated GOES X-ray flares and listed online. Using their locations and the cataloged properties of CMEs, we carried out a study on the dependence of CME properties on source location. We studied the above for three groups of CMEs: (i) all CMEs, (ii) halo and non-halo CMEs, and (iii) limb and non-limb CMEs. Major results from this study can be summarized as follows. (i) There is a clear dependence of speed on both the longitude and latitude; while there is an increasing trend with respect to longitude, it is opposite in the case of latitude. Our investigations show that the longitudinal dependence is caused by the projection effect and the latitudinal effect by the solar cycle effect. (ii) In the case of width, the disc centered events are observed with more width than those occurred at higher longitudes, and this result seems to be the same for latitude. (iii) The dependency of speed is confirmed on the angular distance between the sun-center and source location determined using both the longitude and latitude. (iv) There is no dependency found in the case of acceleration. (v) Among all the three groups of CMEs, the speeds of halo CMEs show more dependency on longitude. The speed of non-halo and non-limb CMEs show more dependency on latitude. The above results may be taken into account in correcting the projection effects of geo-effective CMEs.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.34.1-34.1
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• 2010

Solar proton events, whose fluxes are larger than 10 particles cm-2 sec-1 ster-1 for >10 MeV protons, have been observed since 1976. NOAA proton event list from 1997 to 2006 shows that most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. In this study, we carefully identified the sources of these events. For this, we used LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. First, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the CMEs are found to eject from the western hemisphere. Second, we searched a major active region in the front solar disk for several days before the proton events occurred by taking into account two facts: (1) The location of the active region is consistent with the position angle of a given CME and (2) there were several flares in the active region or the active region is the largest among several candidates. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce proton events without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of proton events by considering solar rotation rate, $13.2^{\circ}$ per day. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.31-38
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• 2012

In this study we apply Support Vector Machine (SVM) to the prediction of geo-effective halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The SVM, which is one of machine learning algorithms, is used for the purpose of classification and regression analysis. We use halo and partial halo CMEs from January 1996 to April 2010 in the SOHO/LASCO CME Catalog for training and prediction. And we also use their associated X-ray flare classes to identify front-side halo CMEs (stronger than B1 class), and the Dst index to determine geo-effective halo CMEs (stronger than -50 nT). The combinations of the speed and the angular width of CMEs, and their associated X-ray classes are used for input features of the SVM. We make an attempt to find the best model by using cross-validation which is processed by changing kernel functions of the SVM and their parameters. As a result we obtain statistical parameters for the best model by using the speed of CME and its associated X-ray flare class as input features of the SVM: Accuracy=0.66, PODy=0.76, PODn=0.49, FAR=0.72, Bias=1.06, CSI=0.59, TSS=0.25. The performance of the statistical parameters by applying the SVM is much better than those from the simple classifications based on constant classifiers.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.315-330
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• 2017

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from solar activities give rise to geomagnetic storms when they reach the Earth. Variations in the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic storm can damage satellites, communication systems, electrical power grids, and power systems, and induce currents. Therefore, automated techniques for detecting and analyzing halo CMEs have been eliciting increasing attention for the monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to sense and detect halo CMEs using large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) C3 coronagraph images from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite. In addition, we developed an image processing technique to derive the morphological and dynamical characteristics of halo CMEs, namely, the source location, width, actual CME speed, and arrival time at a 21.5 solar radius. The proposed halo CME automatic analysis model was validated using a model of the past three halo CME events. As a result, a solar event that occurred at 03:38 UT on Mar. 23, 2014 was predicted to arrive at Earth at 23:00 UT on Mar. 25, whereas the actual arrival time was at 04:30 UT on Mar. 26, which is a difference of 5 hr and 30 min. In addition, a solar event that occurred at 12:55 UT on Apr. 18, 2014 was estimated to arrive at Earth at 16:00 UT on Apr. 20, which is 4 hr ahead of the actual arrival time of 20:00 UT on the same day. However, the estimation error was reduced significantly compared to the ENLIL model. As a further study, the model will be applied to many more events for validation and testing, and after such tests are completed, on-line service will be provided at the Korean Space Weather Center to detect halo CMEs and derive the model parameters.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.38.2-38.2
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• 2010

We have examined the occurrence probability of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending three flare parameters (X-ray peak flux, longitude, and impulsive time). For this we used NOAA SPEs from 1976 to 2006, and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we selected 166 proton events that were associated with major flares; 85 events associated with X-class flares and 81 events associated with M-class flares. Especially the occurrence probability strongly depends on these three parameters. In addition, the relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude and impulsive time. Among NOAA SPEs from 1997 to 2006, most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. We carefully identified the sources of these events using LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. Specifically, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the history of active regions. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce SPEs without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of SPEs by considering solar rotation rate. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side. Now we are examining the occurrence probability of SPEs depending on CME parameters. Finally, we will discuss the future prospects on the development of an empirical SPE forecast model based on the information of flares and CMEs.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.41-53
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• 2004

It has been a big mystery what drives filament eruptions and flares. We have studied in detail an X1.8 flare and its associated filament eruption that occurred in NOAA Active Region 9236 on November 24,2000. For this work we have analyzed high temporal (about 1 minute) and spatial (about 1 arcsec) resolution images taken by Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, Hoc centerline and blue wing ($-0.6{\AA}$) images from Big Bear Solar Observatory, and 1600 ${\AA}$ UV images by the Transition Region and Corona Explorer (TRACE). We have found that there were several transient brightenings seen in H$\alpha$ and, more noticeably in TRACE 1600 ${\AA}$ images around the preflare phase. A closer look at the UV brightenings in 1600 ${\AA}$ images reveals that they took place near one end of the erupting filament, and are a kind of jets supplying mass into the transient loops seen in 1600 ${\AA}$. These brightenings were also associated with canceling magnetic features (CMFs) as seen in the MDI magnetograms. The flux variations of these CMFs suggest that the flux cancellation may have been driven by the emergence of the new flux. For this event, we have estimated the ejection speeds of the filament ranging from 10 to 160 km $s^{-1}$ for the first twenty minutes. It is noted that the initiation of the filament eruption (as defined by the rise speed less than 20 km $s^{-1}$) coincided with the preflare activity characterized by UV brightenings and CMFs. The speed of the associated LASCO CME can be well extrapolated from the observed filament speed and its direction is consistent with those of the disturbed UV loops associated with the preflare activity. Supposing the H$\alpha$/UV transient brightenings and the canceling magnetic features are due to magnetic reconnect ion in the low atmosphere, our results may be strong observational evidence supporting that the initiation of the filament eruption and the preflare phase of the associated flare may be physically related to low-atmosphere magnetic reconnection.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.9-24
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• 2009

We compare the relation among the annual distribution of sunspots: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and geomagnetic storms and North-South asymmetry during solar cycle 23. For this purpose, we calculate correlation coefficients between (i) annual distribution and N-S asymmetry of CMEs - sunspots (ii) distribution of CMEs - occurrence number of geomagnetic storms (iii) distribution of sunspots - occurrence number of geomagnetic storms. We find that (i) the annual distribution of total CMEs has good correlation with distribution of annual average of sunspots but poor correlation with N-S asymmetry of sunspots, N-S asymmetry of CMEs has good correlation with N-S asymmetry of sunspots: (ii) total and N-S asymmetry of CMEs have poor correlation with occurrence number of geomagnetic storms, it's, however, well correlated with the classified groups of CMEs (Ap, Dst and an indices vs. fast CMEs($\upsilon$ > $1000kms^{-1}$), Dst index vs. Halo CMEs), and (iii) sunspot numbers and area are correlated with occurrence number of geomagnetic storms. We conclude that annual distribution of CMEs and sunspots have well correlated with geomagnetic storms, N-S asymmetry of CMEs and sunspots have poor correlated with the geomagnetic storms.