• Title/Summary/Keyword: Large-Price Change

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Forecasting the Baltic Dry Index Using Bayesian Variable Selection (베이지안 변수선택 기법을 이용한 발틱건화물운임지수(BDI) 예측)

  • Xiang-Yu Han;Young Min Kim
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.21-37
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    • 2022
  • Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is difficult to forecast because of the high volatility and complexity. To improve the BDI forecasting ability, this study apply Bayesian variable selection method with a large number of predictors. Our estimation results based on the BDI and all predictors from January 2000 to September 2021 indicate that the out-of-sample prediction ability of the ADL model with the variable selection is superior to that of the AR model in terms of point and density forecasting. We also find that critical predictors for the BDI change over forecasts horizon. The lagged BDI are being selected as an key predictor at all forecasts horizon, but commodity price, the clarksea index, and interest rates have additional information to predict BDI at mid-term horizon. This implies that time variations of predictors should be considered to predict the BDI.

A Study on the Shroud, according to Change of Mourning & Funeral Custom (상장례문화의 변화에 따른 수의연구)

  • 이민주
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.887-898
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    • 2000
  • Mourning & funeral ritual means a various kinds of ritual procedures which begins at the time of death, buried and created a graveyard, a manner of wearing funeral garment being mourning the death, finally go back to everyday life. Our mourning & funeral custom was burial at first time. After going through the era of the Three kingdoms, The unified Shilla and Korea dynasty, cremation method has been prevailed. However, based on Chu-tzu celebration in Chosun dynasty, the burial custom has been widely spread again. Nowadays, due to effective land utilization issue, excessive cost for burial and the change of thinking for cremation, the cremation is recognized as remedy of righteous funeral system. At this point, a shroud following existing burial custom burdens considerably for quality, price, size and design of it. Accordingly, it needs anew style of shroud corresponding to cremation system. As an alternative, the shroud is required simplification and standardization ; Firstly, in size, a shroud should be larger than plain clothes and differentiated in small, medium and large. Secondly, the material of a shroud would be white cotton, which can keep from pollution during burning time. Thirdly, it unifies the item. In case of man, 바지(把特, those are trousers), 저고리(赤古里, Korean-style jacket) and Durumagi(周衣, Korean topcoat). In case of woman, 치마(赤 , those are skirt), 저고리(赤古里, Koran-style jacket) and Durumagi(周衣, Korean topcoat).

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Performance Improvement on the Re-Liquefaction System of Ethylene Carrier using Low-Global Warming Potential Refrigerants (Low - Global Warming Potential 냉매를 이용한 에틸렌 수송선의 재액화 시스템 성능개선)

  • Ha, Seong-Yong;Choi, Jung-Ho
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.415-420
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    • 2018
  • The development of sail gas has increased the production of ethane as well as natural gas. The decline in the market price for ethane has led to a change in the petroleum-based ethylene production process into an ethane-based ethylene production process and an increase in the ethane/ethylene trade volume. Large-scale ethane/ethylene carrier have been needed due to an increase in long-distance trade from the US, and cargo type change have leaded to consider a liquefaction process to re-liquefy Boil-Off gas generated during the voyage. In this paper, the liquefaction system of Liquefied Ethane Gas carrier was evaluated with Low-GWP (Low-Global Warming Potential) refrigerant and process parameters, Boil-Off Gas pressure and expansion valve outlet pressure, were optimized. Low-GWP refrigerants were propane (R290), propylene(R1270), carbon dioxide(R744) was considered at two type of liquefaction process such as Linde and cascade cycle. The results show that the optimal pressure point depends on the individual refrigerant and the highest liquefaction efficiency of carbon dioxide (R744) - propane (R290) refrigerant.

Dynamic Changes of Urban Spatial Structure in Seoul: Focusing on a Relative Office Price Gradient (오피스 가격경사계수를 이용한 서울시 도시공간구조 변화 분석)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2021
  • With the increasing demand for office space, there have been questions on how office rent distribution produces a change in the urban spatial structure in Seoul. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a relative price gradient and to present a time-series model that can quantitatively explain the dynamic changes in the urban spatial structure. The analysis was dealt with office rent above 3,306 m2 for the past 10 years from 1Q 2010 to 4Q 2019 within Seoul. A modified repeat sales model was employed. The main findings are briefly summarized as follows. First, according to the estimates of the office price gradient in the three major urban centers of Seoul, the CBD remained at a certain level with little change, while those in the GBD and the YBD continued to increase. This result reveals that the urban form of Seoul has shifted from monocentric to polycentric. This shows that the spatial distribution of companies has gradually accelerated decentralized concentration implying that the business networks have become significant. Second, contrary to small and medium-sized office buildings that have undertaken no change in the gradient, large office buildings have seen an increase in the gradient. The relative price gradients in small and medium-sized buildings were inversely proportional among the CBD, the GBD, and the YBD, implying their heterogeneous submarkets by office rent movements. Presumably, those differences in the submarkets were attributed to investment attraction, industrial competition, and the credit and preference of tenants. The findings are consistent with the hierarchical system identified in the Seoul 2030 Plan as well as the literature about Seoul's urban form. This research claims that the proposed method, based on the modified repeat sales model, is useful in understanding temporal dynamic changes. Moreover, the findings can provide implications for urban growth strategies under rapidly changing market conditions.

The Design of an Intelligent Assembly Robot System for Lens Modules of Phone Camera.

  • Song, Jun-Yeob;Lee, Chang-Woo;Kim, Yeong-Gyoo
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.649-652
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    • 2005
  • The camera cellular phone has a large portion of cellular phone market in recent year. The variety of a customer demand makes a fast model change and the spatial resolution is changed from VGA to multi-mega pixel. The 1.3 mega pixel (MP) camera cellular phone was first released into the Korean market in October 2003. The major cellular phone companies released a 2MP camera cellular phone that supports zoom function and a 2MP camera cellular phone is settled down with the Korea cellular phone market. It makes a keen competition in price and demands automation for phone camera module. There is an increasing requirement for the automatic assembly to correspond to a fast model change. The hard automation techniques that rely on dedicated manufacturing system are too inflexible to meet this requirement. Therefore in this study, this system is designed with the flexibility concept in order to cope with phone camera module change. The system has a same platform that has X-Y-Z motion or X-Z motion with ${\mu}m$order accuracy. It has a special gripper according to the type of a component to be put together. If the camera model changes, the gripper may be updated to fit for the camera module. The controller of this system acquires the data sets that have the information about the assembly part by the tray. This information is obtained ahead of an inspection step. The controller excludes an inferior part to be assembled by using this information to diminish the inferior goods. The assembly jig used in this system has a function of self adjustment that reduces the tact time and also diminish the inferior goods. Finally, the intelligent assembly system for phone camera module will be designed to get a flexibility to meet model change and a high productivity with a high reliability.

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Determinants of Productivity Change in Export Manufacturing Firms : Focusing on Innovation (수출제조기업의 생산성변화에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석 : 혁신활동을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Kyung-Yun;Koo, Jong-Soon;Hwang, Jung-Hyun
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.61-90
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to identify the sources of productivity change in export manufacturing firms. After estimating the Malmquist productivity index, a panel regression was used to calculate the source of productivity change. Upon conducting a literature review of this field, six variables were selected as explanatory variables. The results of an analysis of 355 export manufacturing firms operating from 2009 through 2015 are as follows: First, both innovation activity and total assets had a positive impact on productivity change. However, employment cost intensity, equity ratio, and current ratio had a negative impact on productivity change in export manufacturing firms. Second, innovation activity and intangible assets had a positive impact on productivity change, but employment cost intensity, selling expense intensity, and equity ratio had a negative impact on productivity change in large export manufacturing firms. Third, innovation activity had a positive impact on productivity change, but employment cost intensity and equity ratio had a negative impact on productivity change in small and medium export manufacturing firms. Fourth, intangible assets had a positive impact on productivity change, but employment cost intensity, selling expense intensity, and current ratio had a negative impact on productivity change in export manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index. Fifth, innovation activity and total assets had a positive impact on productivity change, but employment cost intensity and equity ratio had a negative impact on productivity change in manufacturing firms listed on the Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotations. The managerial implications of this study are also discussed.

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The Effects of Product Line Rivalry: Focusing on the Issue of Fighting Brands (경쟁산품선적영향(竞争产品线的影响): 관주전두품패(关注战斗品牌))

  • Koh, Dong-Hee
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.24-31
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    • 2009
  • Firms produce various products that differ by function, design, color, etc. Product proliferation occurs for three different reasons. When there exist economies of scope, the unit cost for a product is lower when it is produced in conjunction with another product than when it is produced separately. Second, consumers are heterogeneous in the sense that they have different tastes, preferences, or price elasticities. A firm can earn more profit by segmenting consumers into different groups with similar characteristics. For example, product proliferation helps a firm increase profits by satisfying various consumer needs more precisely. The third reason for product proliferation is based on strategy. Producing a number of products can not only deter entry by providing few niches, but can also cause a firm to react efficiently to a low-price entry. By producing various products, a firm can reduce niches so that potential entrants have less incentive to enter. Moreover, a firm can produce new products in response to entry, which is called fighting brands. That is, when an entrant tries to attract consumers with a low price, an incumbent introduces a new lower-quality product while maintaining the price of the existing product. The drawback of product proliferation, however, is cannibalization. Some consumers who would have bought a high-price product switch to a low-price product. Moreover, it is possible that proliferation can decrease profits when a new product is less differentiated from a rival’s than is the existing product because of more severe competition. Many studies have analyzed the effect of product line rivalry in the areas of economics and marketing. They show how a monopolist can solve the problem of cannibalization by adjusting quality in a market where consumers differ in their preferences for quality. They find that a consumer who prefers high-quality products will obtain his or her most preferred quality, but a consumer who has not such preference will obtain less than his or her preferred quality to reduce cannibalization. This study analyzed the effects of product line rivalry in a duopoly market with two types of consumers differentiated by quality preference. I assume that the two firms are asymmetric in the sense that an incumbent can produce both high- and low-quality products, while an entrant can produce only a low-quality product. The effects of product proliferation can be explained by comparing the market outcomes when an incumbent produces both products to those when it produces only one product. Compared to the case in which an incumbent produces only a high-quality product, the price of a low-quality product tends to decrease in a consumer segment that prefers low-quality products because of more severe competition. Prices, however, tend to increase in a segment with high preferences because of less severe competition. It is known that when firms compete over prices, it is optimal for a firm to increase its price when its rival increases its price, which is called a strategic complement. Since prices are strategic complements, we have two opposing effects. It turns out that the price of a high-quality product increases because the positive effect of reduced competition outweighs the negative effect of strategic complements. This implies that an incumbent needs to increase the price of a high-quality product when it is also introducing a low-quality product. However, the change in price of the entrant’s low-quality product is ambiguous. Second, compared to the case in which an incumbent produces only a low-quality product, prices tend to increase in a consumer segment with low preferences but decrease in a segment with high preferences. The prices of low-quality products decrease because the negative effect outweighs the positive effect. Moreover, when an incumbent produces both kinds of product, the price of an incumbent‘s low-quality product is higher, even though the quality of both firms’ low-quality products is the same. The reason for this is that the incumbent has less incentive to reduce the price of a low-quality product because of the negative impact on the price of its high-quality product. In fact, the effects of product line rivalry on profits depend not only on changes in price, but also on sales and cannibalization. If the difference in marginal cost is moderate compared to the difference in product quality, the positive effect of product proliferation outweighs the negative effect, thereby increasing the profit. Furthermore, if the cost difference is very large (small), an incumbent is better off producing only a low (high) quality product. Moreover, this study also analyzed the effect of product line rivalry when a firm can determine product characteristics by focusing on the issue of fighting brands. Recently, Korean air and Asiana airlines have established budget airlines called Jin air and Air Busan, respectively, to confront the launching of budget airlines such as Hansung airline and Jeju air, among others. In addition, as more online bookstores have entered the market, a leading off-line bookstore Kyobo began its own online bookstore. Through fighting brands, an incumbent with a high-quality product can increase profits by producing an additional low-quality product when its low-quality product is more differentiated from that of the entrant than is its high-quality product.

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Development of a Stock Trading System Using M & W Wave Patterns and Genetic Algorithms (M&W 파동 패턴과 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 주식 매매 시스템 개발)

  • Yang, Hoonseok;Kim, Sunwoong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-83
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    • 2019
  • Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

A Study on the Effect and Improvement Direction of the Credit Rating of Large Construction Firms by the Reinforced Real Estate Regulations and the Raising of the Base Rate (정부 부동산규제 강화와 기준금리 인상이 대형건설사 신용등급에 미치는 영향과 개선방향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, YunHong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.90-102
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    • 2018
  • In preparation of the increase in the domestic debts and the rise in the US interest rate, the Korean government has started to strengthen the regulation on the property market since 2017. So, it is likely that the sales in the domestic construction market would be decreased. Even in the overseas plant projects market, as there has been the continuous increase in the cost and the resulting increase in the losses, it looks hard for the large construction companies to keep their credit ratings as they are now. This study is designed to check Korean government's property policy and any possible problems caused by the overseas and domestic economic environment, which include the property market policy, interest rate, rise in the property price and lackluster sales in housing market. It showed the change in the credit ratings by finding out the sales, work capability, sales in non-governmental projects, operating profits and PF contingency liabilities. For this study, the questionnaires were sent to 30 practical experts to analyze the effect of the risk factor on the outside credit rating of large construction companies.

Management Status and Development Plan of Green Tea Processors in Korea

  • Kang, Hagmo;Park, Junho;Choi, Sooim;Lee, Chongkyu;Kim, Hyun
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.156-162
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted to analyze the current management status of green tea processors in two regions (Hadong-gun and Boseong-gun) in Korea and to suggest directions for the development of the green tea industry based on an understanding their difficulties in management. This study showed that the number of green tea farms and the cultivation area had decreased, while the average unit sales price of green tea in Boseong-gun was approximately three times higher than that in Hadong-gun. Also, this study found that Hadong-gun mainly provided green tea products to wholesalers, whereas Boseong-gun sold it directly to the local retail stores targeting tourists, and this results in generating relatively higher unit prices. Meanwhile, we discovered that both regions had difficulties in management which were caused by the demand for low delivery unit costs from large corporations and small food companies. Therefore, in order to develop the green tea industry in both regions, the size of green tea fields and the scenery satisfaction should be improved to draw more tourists and boost tourists' intention to revisit. In addition, it is necessary to enhance guidance and accessibility of related tourist sites, to expand green tea experience activities, and to improve product satisfaction by developing various goods. By inducing more tourists in these ways, it could change the sales type of green tea from wholesale to retail and help activate the management of green tea processors.