• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제3권4호
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• pp.220-237
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• 2001

Over the 20th century global temperature increase has been 0.6$^{\circ}C$. The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8$^{\circ}C$ over the period 1990 to 2100. Nearly all land areas will have higher maximum temperature and minimum temperature, and fewer cold days and frost days. More intense precipitation events will take plate over many areas. Over most mid-latitude continental interiors will have increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought. By 2100, if the annual surface temperature increase is 3.5$^{\circ}C$, we will have 15.9$^{\circ}C$ from 12.4$^{\circ}C$ at present. Also the annual precipitation will range 1,118-2,447 mm from 972-1,841 mm at present in Korea. Consequently the average crop periods for summer crops will be 250 days that prolonged 32 days than at present. In the case of gradual increase of global warming, an annual crop can be adapted to the changing climate through the selection of filial generations in breeding process. The perennial crops such as an apple should be shifted the chief producing place to northern or high latitude areas where below 13.5$^{\circ}C$ of the annual surface temperature. If global warming happens suddenly over the threshold atmospheric greenhouse gases, then all ecosystems will have tremendous disturbance. Agricultural land-use plan, which state that farmers decide what to plant, based on their climate-based advantages. Therefore, farmers will mitigate possible negative imparts associated with the climate change. The farmers will have application to use agricultural meteorological information system, and agricultural long-range weather forecast system for their agroecosystems management. The ideal types of crops under $CO_2$ increase and climate change conditions are considered that ecological characteristics need indispensable to accomplish the sustainable agriculture as the diversification of genetic resources from yield-oriented to biomass-oriented characteristics with higher potential of $CO_2$ absorption and primary production. In addition, a heat-and-cold tolerance, a pest resistance, an environmental adaptability, and production stability should be also incorporated collectively into integrated agroecosystem.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.299-314
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• 2016

The aim of this paper is to review integrated assessment studies conducted to address the impacts of climate change sea-level rise on agricultural sector and to derive suggestions for improving the integrated assessment process to assist decision-makers in establishing climate change adaptation policy. We collect integrated assessment studies which are based on the impact-pathway analysis, compare their step-by-step procedures and identify main factors addressed in each step. The assessment process is typically carried out in the sequence of scenario development, determination of assessment scope, physical impact assessment, economic analysis and synthesis of the outcomes from each step. We identify two types of integrated assessment. The first one examines the impacts of changes in temperature and/or precipitation on the crop-cultivation patterns and/or agricultural productivity and resulting economic effects on agricultural sector. The other investigates the impacts of sea-level rise on land use/coverage and resulting economic damages in terms of land-value loss where the effects on agriculture is treated as one sector among others. To enhance integrated assessment, we suggest that 1) scenarios need to incorporate the effects of climate change and sea-level rise simultaneously, 2) scope of the assessment needs to be extended to include ecosystem services as well as crop production, 3) social and cultural aspects need to be considered in addition to economic analysis, and 4) synthesis of the outcomes from each step should be able to combine quantitative as well as qualitative information.

• 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농림기상학회 2013년도 추계 학술발표논문집
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• pp.30-31
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• 2013

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) due to human activities directly affects natural systems and contributes to changes in carbon exchange and climate through a range of feedbacks. How land use and land cover changes affect carbon exchanges can be assessed using multiyear measurement data from micrometeorological flux towers. The objective of the research is to assess the impact of land use and land cover change on carbon exchange in a heterogeneous cropland area. The heterogeneous cropland area in Haenam, South Korea is also subjected to a land conversion due to rural development. Therefore, the impact of the change in land utilization in this area on carbon exchange should be assessed to monitor the cycle of energy, water, and carbon dioxide between this key agricultural ecosystem and the atmosphere. We are currently conducting the research based on 10 years flux measurement data from Haenam Koflux site and examining the LULCC patterns in the same temporal scale to evaluate whether the LULCC in the surrounding site and the resulting heterogeneity (or diversity) have a significant impact on carbon exchange. Haenam cropland is located near the southwestern coast of the Korean Peninsula with land cover types consisting of scattered rice paddies and various croplands (seasonally cultivated crops). The LULCC will be identified and quantified using remote sensing satellite data and then analyzing the relationships between LULCC and flux footprint of $CO_2$ from tower flux measurement. We plan to calculate annual flux footprint climatology map from 2003 to 2012 from the 10 years flux observation database. Eventually, these results will be used to quantify how the system's effective performance and reserve capacity contribute to moving the system towards more sustainable configuration. Broader significance of this research is to understand the co-evolution of the Haenam agricultural ecosystem and its societal counterpart which are assumed to be self-organizing hierarchical open systems.

• 환경정책연구
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.73-96
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• 2013

중앙아시아지역의 기후변화적응 이슈를 유목문화의 역동성 측면에서 접근하고 있으며 이를 통해 중앙아시아 지역의 기후변화특성에 적응하는 개도국 기후변화 정책수립 이슈를 다루고 있다. 건조하면서도 혹한과 혹서가 반복되는 중앙아시아 지역의 기후특성은 지구촌 어떤 곳보다 기후변화로 인해 심각한 영향을 받고 있다는 문제의식에서 출발하고 있다. 기후변화 영향에 적응하는 유목문화적 역동성(dynamics) 요소를 수자원(water resource), 가축(livestock), 초원(pastureland)을 중심으로 살펴보고 있으며 유목민의 문화적, 기후적 특성에 기초한 적응정책을 탐색하고 있다. 아울러 기후변화 영향 및 적응에 있어서 중앙아시아 지역의 유목문화적 특성이 갖는 이중적 의미로, 오랜 기간 잦은 이동과 새로운 환경에 적응해온 유목민들의 라이프 스타일이 기후변화에 있어서도 우수한 적응 잠재 능력을 발휘할 수 있음에도 주목하고 있다.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.189-198
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• 2020

다양한 생태계 서비스를 제공할 수 있는 습지는 지속가능한 수질 개선 및 기후변화로 인한 영향의 완충작용 등 중요한 자연기반해법기술로 간주되어 왔다. 특히 토지이용 변화, 기후 변화 및 수문 변화에 따른 영향 저감을 위한 습지 보전의 중요성은 부각되었으나 경관규모에서의 거시적 자연기반해법기술 가능성의 검토가 미비하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 생태 네트워크 분석을 통한 공학적 솔루션 제공 가능성을 검토하기 위해 습지경관 가상 서식종의 이동모델을 기반으로 형성된 습지 생태네트워크를 이용하여 토지이용변화에 따른 생태네트워크의 구조적, 기능적 특성 (연결성, 이동 효율성 및 집단화 계수)이 어떻게 변화하는지 분석하였다. 이를 위해 습지 밀도가 다른 네 구역의 토지이용변화를 가정하여 두 가지의 초기 면적조건에 대한 각 구역의 동시다발적 토지이용변화를 통해 생태 네트워크 특성의 변화를 분석하였다. 모든 분석결과에서 습지밀도가 높은 구역이 파괴된 경우 생태네트워크의 평균 연결성과 이동 효율성이 크게 감소하였으며, 특히 허브 (매우 높은 연결성을 지니는 노드)가 포함된 구역의 습지가 제거될 때 급격한 감소가 발생하는 것을 확인하였다. 반면, 집단화 계수는 증가하는 것으로 관찰되었다. 이를 통해 토지이용변화에 따른 생태네트워크에 대한 영향을 평가할 수 있으며 특히 향후 매개중심성 분석을 추가하여 적합한 대체습지를 조성할 수 있는 자연기반의 공학적 솔루션을 제공할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.229-229
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• 2015

Downscaling is a fundamental procedure in the assessment of the future climate change impact at regional and watershed scales. Hence, it is important to investigate the spatial variability of the climate conditions that are constructed by various downscaling methods in order to assess whether each method can model the climate conditions at various spatial scales properly. This study introduces a fundamental research from Jang and Kavvas(2015) that precipitation variability from a popular statistical downscaling method (BCSD) and a dynamical downscaling method (MM5) that is based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data for a historical period and on the CCSM3 GCM A1B emission scenario simulations for a projection period, is investigated by means of some spatial characteristics: a) the normalized standard deviation (NSD), and b) the precipitation change over Northern California region. From the results of this study it is found that the BCSD method has limitations in projecting future precipitation values since the BCSD-projected precipitation, being based on the interpolated change factors from GCM projected precipitation, does not consider the interactions between GCM outputs and local geomorphological characteristics such as orographic effects and land use/cover patterns. As such, it is not clear whether the popular BCSD method is suitable for the assessment of the impact of future climate change at regional, watershed and local scales as the future climate will evolve in time and space as a nonlinear system with land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, it is noted that in this study only the BCSD procedure for the statistical downscaling method has been investigated, and the results by other statistical downscaling methods might be different.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.9-20
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• 2013

In this paper, the rainfall elasticity of streamflow was estimated to quantify the effects of climate change on 5 river basins. Rainfall elasticity denotes the sensitivity of annual streamflow for the variations of potential annual rainfall. This is a simple, useful method that evaluates how the balance of a water cycle on river basins changes due to long-term climate change and offers information to manage water resources and environment systems. The elasticity method was first used by Schaake in 1990 and is commonly used in the United States and Australia. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP, semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes) was used to simulate the variations of area streamflow, and potential evapotranspiration. A nonparametric method was then used to estimate the rainfall elasticity on five river basins of Korea. In addition, the A2 (SRES IPCC AR4, Special Report on Emission Scenarios IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) climate change scenario and stochastic downscaling technique were used to create a high-resolution weather change scenario in river basins, and the effects of climate change on the rainfall elasticity of each basin were then analyzed.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.54-55
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• 2015

Increase of impervious areas due to expansion of housing area, commercial and business building of urban is resulting in property change of stormwater runoff. Also, rapid urbanization and heavy rain due to climate change lead to urban flood and debris flow damage. In 2010 and 2011, Seoul had experienced shocking flooding damages by heavy rain. All these have led to increased interest in applying LID and decentralized rainwater management as a means of urban hydrologic cycle restoration and Natural Disaster Prevention such as flooding and so on. Urban development is a cause of expansion of impervious area. It reduces infiltration of rain water and may increase runoff volume from storms. Low Impact Development (LID) methods is to mimic the predevelopment site hydrology by using site design techniques that store, infiltrate, evaporate, detain runoff, and reduction flooding. Use of these techniques helps to reduce off-site runoff and ensure adequate groundwater recharge. The contents of this paper include a hydrologic analysis on a site and an evaluation of flooding reduction effect of LID practice facilities planned on the site. The region of this Case study is LID Rainwater Management Demonstration District in A-new town and P-new town, Korea. LID Practice facilities were designed on the area of rainwater management demonstration district in new town. We performed analysis of reduction effect about flood discharge. SWMM5 has been developed as a model to analyze the hydrologic impacts of LID facilities. For this study, we used weather data for around 38 years from January 1973 to August 2014 collected from the new town City Observatory near the district. Using the weather data, we performed continuous simulation of urban runoff in order to analyze impacts on the Stream from the development of the district and the installation of LID facilities. This is a new approach to stormwater management system which is different from existing end-of-pipe type management system. We suggest that LID should be discussed as a efficient method of urban disasters and climate change control in future land use, sewer and stormwater management planning.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.43-57
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• 2003

This paper presents the air corridor planning strategy based on simulation with MUKLMO_3 (Micro-scale Urban Climate Model) to investigate the wind field and air corridor caused by the land-use change of the New Town Development Area in Pan-Gyo. In the first part, the most frequently observed wind field in the New Town Development Area was measured and used as an initial value to simulate a more realistic wind field and air corridor. Several experiments with different initial values of wind fields were carried out to investigate the wind field change affected by the New Town Development. The results show the features of the wind field of the neutral stability condition in the urban canopy layer with a high resolution near the ground. The wind speed is weakened at this level due to the New Town Development. It was found that the wind field and air corridor are influenced by the land-use change. After the development of the New Town, the speed of the wind field decreased and the main wind directions and air corridor changed. In this study, this model is found to be a useful tool for evaluating air corridor and change of wind field in speed and direction.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.73-86
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• 1995

This paper demonstrates Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has to be applied for development projects with regard to the ecological, economical and social aspects before any decisions made in the project. Korea has confronted various environmental problems during the last fifteen years, even though EIA has been enacted since 1981. The role of impact assessment in planning and policy processes should be emphasized to investigate the magnitude and intensity of the adverse influences of economic development. In the Seoul Metropolitan Region, it is necessary to apply EIA all urban projects to reduce the adverse effects of urbanization. Special attention should be given to the climatological effects throughout the urbanization process in Korea to keep the urban area energy-efficient. This study intends not only to establish basic data for national-and regional-based land-use policy in the environmental aspects, but also to provide the basic data for the possible climate model (scenarios) that may provide spatial and temporal variability by analyzing the actual climatic record. There is a noticeable impact of urbanization on the atmospheric environment in the Seoul Metropolitan Region. In this sense, the climatic aspect must be taken into consideration in the process of EIA to mitigate the well-known climatic alterations of urbanization. Moreover, the techniques of assessment should be improved by developing geo-reference data sets to build models of the global climate in response to the man-made environmental change.