• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.63-71
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• 2013

KMA is operationally monitoring El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a events, which have tremendous impacts on global climate. Many scientific studies have used to define onset of El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a events based on the moving average and persistency of SST indices, and KMA has adopted such definition. Though the definition has been widely accepted, in the operational aspect there is a critical problem to use moving average and condition for the persistence. Because the future values for the SST indices cannot be used in the operational monitoring, the onset timing in El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a can be significantly delayed. We suggest here an appropriate definition of El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a events in the operational aspect. Instead of using the moving average and the condition for the persistence, the onset is defined based on NINO3.4 SST during last 3 months. In order to compare the new definition with the current KMA definition, we applied them to recent 60-years SST data. It is clear that the new definition can declare the onset timing of El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a several months earlier than that of the KMA definition. It suggest that the new definition is more appropriate to the operational monitoring on El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.611-616
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• 2013

This paper studies relationship between typhoon and El Ni$\tilde{n}$o La Ni$\tilde{n}$a events by using 25 years meteorological data of KMA and JMA. The results are listed below. Annual mean number of typhoon's occurrence in El Ni$\tilde{n}$o event year is 23.9, and that in La Ni$\tilde{n}$a event year is 24.9. The number of typhoon's occurrence decreases in El Ni$\tilde{n}$o event year. Mean central minimum pressure and mean maximum wind speed in El Ni$\tilde{n}$o event year are 959.3hPa and 35.8m/s, and those in La Ni$\tilde{n}$a event year are 965.5hPa and 33.7m/s respectively. Intension of typhoon is stronger in El Ni$\tilde{n}$o event year than La Ni$\tilde{n}$a event year. To be more specific mean central minimum pressure is lower 6.2hPa and mean maximum wind speed is stronger 2.1m/s. This result is closely connected with sea area of typhoon's occurrence. Typhoons in El Ni$\tilde{n}$o event year are more likely to occur in east of 150E and south of 10N, but those in La Ni$\tilde{n}$a event year are more likely to occur in 120-150E and north of 20N. Typhoons which occur in east of 150E and south of 10N can be stronger because the typhoons move in broad sea area of high sea surface temperature in western North Pacific.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.982-982
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 우리나라의 중 소규모 유역의 수문학적 위험도 분석을 위하여 한강유역을 대상으로 통합위험지수(IRI: Integrated Risk Index)를 산정하였으며, El Ni$\tilde{n}$o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)에 의한 대규모 대기순환 패턴의 변화가 한강 유역의 통합위험지수 변화에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. ENSO자료는 전통적인 El Ni$\tilde{n}$o에 해당하는 Cold-tongue (CT) El Ni$\tilde{n}$o와 중앙태평양 부근의 이상적인 해수면 온도 상승에 의한 Warm-pool (WP) El Ni$\tilde{n}$o, 그리고 해수면 온도가 이상적으로 낮게 관측되는 La Ni$\tilde{n}$a 기간으로 구분하였으며, 각 기간 중 가장 강한 ENSO가 발생한 해(CT El Ni$\tilde{n}$o, 1998; WP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o, 2005; La Ni$\tilde{n}$a, 2000)를 대상으로 통합위험지수를 산정하였다. 통합위험지수는 수문학적 요인(Hydrologic Components), 사회 경제적 요인(Socio-Economic Components)과 생태적 요인(Ecological Components)으로 구분하였고, 엔트로피(entropy) 기법을 통하여 각 인자와 요인별 가중치를 적용하였다. 중권역별 통합위험지수의 평가는 5개의 계급구간(Very High, High, Medium, Low, Very Low)으로 구분하였다. 분석결과, CT El Ni$\tilde{n}$o해의 유역평균 IRI 값은 0.58, WP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o해의 IRI 값은 0.57로 비슷한 결과를 보였으나, La Ni$\tilde{n}$a해에는 IRI 값이 0.41로 낮게 나타났다. CT와 WP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o해에는 한강 서쪽일부 중권역에서 통합위험지수가 높게 나타났으며, La Ni$\tilde{n}$a해에는 한강 중 동부 대부분 유역에서 낮게 분석되었다. 향후 유역별 통합위험지수 산정과 더불어 서로 다른 형태의 ENSO에 따른 수자원 변동 예측이 이루어진다면, 수자원의 효율적인 관리와 안정적인 용수공급에 도움을 줄 것으로 사료되며, 이는 유역별 수자원의 취약성 평가 및 위험도 분석을 위한 기초자료로 활용이 가능하리라 사료된다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.257-270
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• 2017

Solar activity is known to be linked to changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Nonetheless, for other types of extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones (TCs), the available evidence is less conclusive. In this study the modulation of TC genesis over the western North Pacific by the solar activity is investigated, in comparison with a large-scale environmental parameter, i.e., El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For this purpose, we have obtained the best track data for TCs in the western North Pacific from 1977 to 2016, spanning from the solar cycle 21 to the solar cycle 24. We have confirmed that in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods TCs tend to form in the southeast, reach its maximum strength in the southeast, and end its life as TSs in the northeast, compared with the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods. TCs occurring in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods are found to last longer compared with the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods. Furthermore, TCs occurring in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods have a lower central pressure at their maximum strength than those occurring in the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods. We have found that TCs occurring in the solar maximum periods resemble those in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods in their properties. We have also found that TCs occurring in the solar descending periods somehow resemble those in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods in their properties. To make sure that it is not due to the ENSO effect, we have excluded TCs both in the El-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods and in the La-$Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ periods from the data set and repeated the analysis. In addition to this test, we have also reiterated our analysis twice with TCs whose maximum sustained winds speed exceeds 17 m/s, instead of 33 m/s, as well as TCs designated as a typhoon, which ends up with the same conclusions.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.49-63
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• 2016

In this study, we analyzed the effects of regional hydrologic variability during warm season (June-September) in South Korea due to ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation) pattern changes over the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). We performed composite analysis (CA) and statistical significance test by Student's t-test using observed hydrologic data (such as, precipitation and streamflow) in the 113 sub-watershed areas over the 5-Major River basin, in South Korea. As a result of this study, during the warm-pool (WP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year shows a significant increasing tendency than normal years. Particularly, during the cold-tongue (CT) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ decaying years clearly decreasing tendency compared to the normal years was appeared. In addition, the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ years tended to show a slightly increasing tendency and maintain the average year state. In addition, from the result of scatter plot of the percentage anomaly of hydrologic variables during warm season, it is possible to identify the linear increasing tendency. Also the center of the scatter plot shows during the WP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year (+17.93%, +26.99%), the CT El $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (-8.20%, -15.73%), and the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (+8.89%, +15.85%), respectively. This result shows a methodology of the tele-connection based long-range water resources prediction for reducing climate forecasting uncertainty, when occurs the abnormal SSTA (such as, El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$) phenomenon in the TPO region. Furthermore, it can be a useful data for water managers and end-users to support long-range water-related policy making.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.38 no.7
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• pp.469-480
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• 2017

Controversy has surrounded the potential impacts of phytoplankton on the tropical climate, since climate models produce diverse behaviors in terms of the equatorial mean state and El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude. We explored biophysical impacts on the tropical ocean temperature using an ocean general circulation model coupled to a biogeochemistry model in which chlorophyll can modify solar attenuation and in turn feed back to ocean physics. Compared with a control model run excluding biophysical processes, our model with biogeochemistry showed that subsurface chlorophyll concentrations led to an increase in sea surface temperature (particularly in the western Pacific) via horizontal accumulation of heat contents. In the central Pacific, however, a mild cold anomaly appeared, accompanying the strengthened westward currents. The magnitude and skewness of ENSO were also modulated by biophysical feedbacks resulting from the chlorophyll affecting El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ in an asymmetric way. That is, El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ conditions were intensified by the higher contribution of the second baroclinic mode to sea surface temperature anomalies, whereas La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ conditions were slightly weakened by the absorption of shortwave radiation by phytoplankton. In our model experiments, the intensification of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ was more dominant than the dampening of La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$, resulting in the amplification of ENSO and higher skewness.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.283-301
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• 2014

In 2010, only 14 tropical cyclones (TCs) were generated over the western North Pacific (WNP), which was the smallest since 1951. This study summarizes characteristics of TCs generated in 2010 over the WNP and investigates the causes of the record-breaking TC genesis. A long-term variation of TC activity in the WNP and verification of official track forecast in 2010 are also examined. Monthly tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data reveal that El Ni$\tilde{n}$o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in 2010 was shifted from El Ni$\tilde{n}$o to La Ni$\tilde{n}$a in June and the La Ni$\tilde{n}$a event was strong and continued to the end of the year. We found that these tropical environments leaded to unfavorable conditions for TC formation at main TC development area prior to May and at tropics east of $140^{\circ}E$ during summer mostly due to low SST, weak convection, and strong vertical wind shear in those areas. The similar ENSO event (in shifting time and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a intensity) also occurred in 1998, which was the second smallest TC genesis year (16 TCs) since 1951. The common point of the two years suggests that the ENSO episode shifting from El Ni$\tilde{n}$o to strong La Ni$\tilde{n}$a in summer leads to extremely low TC genesis during La Ni$\tilde{n}$a although more samples are needed for confidence. In 2010, three TCs, DIANMU (1004), KOMPASU (1007) and MALOU (1009), influenced the Korean Peninsula (KP) in spite of low total TC genesis. These TCs were all generated at high latitude above $20^{\circ}N$ and arrived over the KP in short time. Among them, KOMPASU (1007) brought the most serious damage to the KP due to strong wind. For 14 TCs in 2010, mean official track forecast error of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for 48 hours was 215 km, which was the highest among other foreign agencies although the errors are generally decreasing for last 10 years, suggesting that more efforts are needed to improve the forecast skill.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.180-189
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• 2011

In order to clarify the relation between El Ni$\tilde{n}$o/La Ni$\tilde{n}$a and wind resources of the Korean Peninsula, observed meteorological data for 20 years were used in this study. Although the wind speed tends to decrease in Eurasia Continent, it gradually increases in the peninsula for 10 years. The seasonal variation of wind speed due to El Ni$\tilde{n}$o/La Ni$\tilde{n}$a development is not so small and negative anomalies of SST tend to lead the beginning of the wind speed increase over the Korean Peninsula. Wind speed variation caused by the global scale meteorological phenomena is more sensitive in mountainous area than in any other areas because of the relatively weak mesoscale forcing at mountainous area.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.465-472
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• 2012

Using various observed data, we examined the evolution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during 2011-2012, with focusing on the development of 2012 El Ni$\tilde{n}$o. It is observed that a La Ni$\tilde{n}$a event during 2011 was followed by a moderate El Ni$\tilde{n}$o during 2012 summer. The 2012 summer El Ni$\tilde{n}$o initiated near the west coast of South America on February 2012, and continued to expand westward till August. Given this evolutionary pattern, the 2012 summer El Ni$\tilde{n}$o can be categorized as 'Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni$\tilde{n}$o' because Ni$\tilde{n}$o-3 index is greater than Ni$\tilde{n}$o-4 index, and it may be the first well-defined EP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o since 2001. On February 2012, this event was initiated mainly by the local air-sea interaction, and at the same time the ocean heat content was accumulated over the tropical western Pacific due to the easterly wind anomaly over the tropical western Pacific. Then, the accumulated heat content slowly propagates to the tropical eastern Pacific, which attributes to maintain El Ni$\tilde{n}$o state during 2012 summer. After August, the positive SST anomaly over the equatorial eastern Pacific decays possibly due to the exhausted heat content and the weakening of air-sea interaction, but the weak positive SST anomaly over the central Pacific remains till now (2012 November).

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.46 no.6
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• pp.907-916
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• 2013

The aim of this study was to compare community structure of larval fish species in the northern East China Sea during normal meteorological conditions in autumn 2009, during the El Ni$\tilde{n}$o period in 2009-2010, and during the La Nina period in 2010. Fifty taxa were recorded during the study period; the most dominant species were Benthosema pterotum and Gobiidae spp. In October 2008 during the normal period, warm water from the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) intruded more into the surface and middle layers, and cold water affected by the Yellow Sea Cold Water (YSCW) intruded into the bottom layer. In October 2009 during the El Ni$\tilde{n}$o period, intrusion of the China Coastal Water (CCW), which has low salinity (<32.2 psu), was more apparent than intrusion of the TWC or YSCW. In October 2010 during the La Nina period, intrusion of the TWC and CCW was relatively weak, resulting in the lowest temperature and highest salinity observed during the study period in the eastern part of the study area. Hierarchical cluster, one-way ANOSIM (analysis of similarities), and SIMPER (similarity-percentages procedure) analyses provided two main results. First, the abundance of the most dominant larval fish species in autumn of the normal period was greater than that in autumn of the El Ni$\tilde{n}$o/La Nina periods, resulting in a significant difference in ichthyoplankton community structure between the periods. The abundance of Benthosema pterotum increased in the normal period, possibly influenced by the intrusion of cold water from the YSCW; the abundance of species residing in Korean waters (e.g., Gobiidae spp.) probably decreased during the El Ni$\tilde{n}$o/La Nina periods. The second finding was that the abundance of subtropical larval fish in autumn of the normal period was generally larger than that during autumn of the El Ni$\tilde{n}$o/La Nina periods. This could have been induced by the stronger intrusion of warm water from the TWC during the normal period. Although differences in oceanographic conditions between El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Nina periods were observed, the differences in ichthyoplankton community structure between the two periods were not significant.