• Title/Summary/Keyword: L5

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DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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The lesson From Korean War (한국전쟁의 교훈과 대비 -병력수(兵力數) 및 부대수(部隊數)를 중심으로-)

  • Yoon, Il-Young
    • Journal of National Security and Military Science
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    • s.8
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    • pp.49-168
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    • 2010
  • Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.

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Estimation of Productivity for Quercus variabilis Stand by Forest Environmental Factors (삼림환경인자(森林環境因子)에 의한 굴참나무임분(林分)의 생산력추정(生産力推定))

  • Lee, Dong Sup;Chung, Young Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.75 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 1986
  • This study was initiated to estimate productivity of Quercus variabilis stand. However the practical objective of this study was to provide some information to establish the basis of selecting the suitable site for Quercus variabilis. The productivity measured in terms of DBH, height, basal area and stem volume was hypothesized, respectively, to be a function of a group of factors. This study considered 32 factors, 20 of which were related to the forest environmental factors such as tree age, latitude, percent slope, etc. and the rest of which were related to soil factors such as soil moisture, total nitrogen, available $P_2O_5$, etc. The data on 4 productivity measurements of Quercus variabilis growth and related factors cited were collected from 99 sample plots in Kyeongbook and chungbook provinces. Some factors considered were, in nature, discrete variables and the others continuous variables. Each kind of factor was classified into 3 or 4 categories and total numbers of such categories were eventually amounted to 110. Then each category was treated as an independent variable. This is amounted to saying that individual variable was treated a dummy variable and assigned a value 1 or 0. However the first category of each factor was deleted from the normal equation for statistical consideration. First of all, each of 4 productivity measurements of Quercus variabilis growth was regressed and, at the same time, those 110 categories. Secondly, the partial correlation coefficients were measured between each pair of 4 productivity measurements and 32 individual foctors. Finally, the relative scores were estimated in order to derive the category ranges. The result of these statistical analyses could be summarized as follows: 1) Growth measurement in terms of height seems to be a more significant criterion for estimation of productivity of Quercus variabilis. 2) Productivity of forest on stocked land may better be estimated in terms of forest environmental factors, on the other hand, that of unstocked land may be estimated in terms of physio-chemical factors of soil. 3) The factors that a strongly positive relation to all growth factors of tree are age group, effective soil, soil moisture, etc. This implies that these factors might effectively be used for criteria for selecting the suitable site for Quercus variabilis. 4) Parent rock, latitude, total nitrogen, age group, effective soil depth, soil moisture, organic matter, etc., had more significant category range for tree growth. Therefore, the suitable site for Quercus variabilis may be selected, based on this information. In conclusion, the above results obtained by the multivariable analysis can be not only the important criteria for estimating the growth of Quercus variabilis but also the useful guidance for selecting the suitable sites and performing the rational of Quercus variabilis forest.

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Effects of the Brown Seaweed Residues Supplementation on In Vitro Fermentation and Milk Production and Composition of Lactating Dairy Cows (미역부산물 첨가가 In Vitro 발효성상과 젖소의 산유량 및 유성분에 미치는 영향)

  • Baek, I.K.;Maeng, W.J.;Lee, S.H.;Lee, H.G.;Lee, S.R.;Ha, J.K.;Lee, S.S.;Hwang, J.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.373-386
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to investigate effects of the brown seaweed residues supplementation on in vitro fermentation, and milk yield and milk composition of dairy cows. Therefore, two experiments consisting of an in vitro and an in vivo growth trial were used. In in vitro experiment, brown seaweed residues(BSR) was supplemented in basal diet with 0, 1, 2 and 4% respectively, and incubated for 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 h. The pH value, ammonia-N and VFA were investigated. The pH value tended to increase with increasing BSR during the incubation. Particularly, pH was significantly higher in BSR treatments compared with control at 9 h(p < 0.05). While, ammonia-N concentration was not significantly different across treatments during the whole incubation. BSR supplementation did not affect total VFA production, but acetate was linearly increased in BSR treatments compared with control at 12 h(p < 0.05), and its concentration was highest(92.70 mM) in 4% BSR among treatments. The concentration of iso-butyrate tended to increase in BSR treatments in comparison to control during the incubation. In addition, the concentration of iso-valerate was higher in BSR treatments compared with control at 12 and 24 h. In growth trial, BSR was added(800 g/d/animaI) to diets of dairy cow. Dry matter intake was not affected by BSR supplementation, but daily milk yield(kg) significantly increased in BSR treatment compared with control(p < 0.05). However, milk composition(%) and milk yield(kg) were not significantly different between treatments. Milk fat(% and kg/d) tended to slightly decrease in BSR treatment compared with control(3.59% and 1.06 kg/d vs. 3.32% and 1.01 kg/d), The contents of C16:0 and C20:4 in milk significantly increased in BSR treatment compared with control reflecting from dietary fatty acid composition. The content of C18:0 in milk which is end product of biohydrogenation of CI8 unsaturated fatty acids in the rumen significantly increased in BSR treatment compared with control(p < 0.05). C18:2 content in milk tended to decrease, but tended to increase trans-II C18:l and CLA contents in milk in BSR treatment compared with control. In conclusion, it could be summarized that BSR may stabilize rumen pH, and it could improve milk yield and CIA content in milk with more than 4% of diet. Therefore, BSR could be beneficially used in dairy diets as a feed additive.

Effects of Nutrient Levels and Feeding Regimen of a.m. and p.m. Diets on Laying Hen Performances and Feed Cost (산란계에 대한 오전용 사료와 오후용 사료의 영양수준 및 급여방법이 산란능력과 사료비에 미치는 영향)

  • 이규호;오용석
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.195-204
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    • 2002
  • Two experiments were conducted to study the effects of nutrient level and feeding method of split diets for a.m. and p.m. on laying hen performance, feed cost and eggshell quality. In experiment 1, 384 ISA Brown layers of 30∼38wk of age were assigned to four treatments which comprise of three replicates each containing 32 birds. The control(C) was fed a conventional single diet throughout the day and split diet groups(T1, T2 and T3) were offered high energy/protein-low Ca diets, and low energy/protein-high Ca diets in a.m.(04:00∼15:00) and p.m.(15:00∼21:00), respectively. In the split diet groups, daily ME and CP consumption, and feed cost were significantly reduced(P<0.05) compared to the C, while the hen-day egg production, average egg weight and daily feed intake were not different among treatments. Due to the reduced daily ME and CP intakes and feed cost, the conversions of feed, ME, CP and feed cost required per day and per kg egg mass were also significantly improved(P<0.05) in the split diet groups. Eggshell qualities (egg specific gravity, egg breaking strength and eggshell thickness) were improved(P<0.05) by split diet feeding. As the Ca level of the p.m. diet increased. In Experiment 2, 384 ISA Brown layers of 50∼58 wk of age were used in three treatments and each treatment was represented by four replicates each containing 32 birds. The control(C) was fed a conventional single diet throughout the day and split diet group(T1) was offered high energy/protein-low Ca diets, and low energy/protein-high Ca diets in a.m.(04:00∼l5:00) and p.m.(15:00∼21:00), respectively. T2 group was fed the diet mixed (50:50) with the a.m. diets in mash and p.m. diet in pellet used T1 group. In T1 and T2 groups, daily feed intake and average egg weight were significantly reduced(P<0.05) compared to the C, while the hen-day egg production was not influenced by the feeding system. Daily ME and CP consumption, and feed cost were reduced(p.0.05), and the conversions of ME, CP and feed cost required per egg were also significantly improved(P<0.05) in T1 and T2, while the conversions of feed, ME, CP and feed cost required per kg egg mass were not different to the C. Eggshell qualities of T1 and T2 were improved(P<0.05) compared to the others. It was concluded the feed and nutrients consumption, feed cost per day or per kg egg mass could be reduced by introducing split diets for a.m. and p.m. and the feeding method of mixed diet of split diets were also convenient and effective for sparing feed cost and improvement of eggshell quality.

Human Papillomavirus Genotypes among Females in Mexico: a Study from the Mexican Institute for Social Security

  • Salcedo, Mauricio;Pina-Sanchez, Patricia;Vallejo-Ruiz, Veronica;Monroy-Garcia, Alberto;Aguilar-Lemarroy, Adriana;Cortes-Gutierrez, Elva I.;Santos-Lopez, Gerardo;Montoya-Fuentes, Hector;Grijalva, Renan;Madrid-Marina, Vicente;Apresa-Garcia, Teresa;Hernandez, Dulce M.;Jave-Suarez, Luis F.;Romero, Pablo;Poot, Albros;Salgado, Eduardo;Ramos-Gonzalez, Patricia;Gonzalez-Hernandez, Rigoberto;Canton, Juan C.;Jimenez-Aranda, Lucio;Parra-Melquiadez, Miriam;Paniagua, Lucero;Mendoza, Monica;Arreola, Hugo;Villegas, Vanesa;Torres-Poveda, Kirvis;Bahena-Roman, Margarita;Gonzalez-Yebra, Beatriz;Taniguchi, Keiko;Rodea, Carlos;Mantilla-Morales, Alejandra;Mora-Garcia, Maria L.;Velazquez-Velazquez, Cindy K.;Cordova-Uscanga, Candelaria;Peralta, Raul;Lopez-Romero, Ricardo;Marrero, Daniel;Bandala, Cindy;Reyes-Leyva, Julio;Furuya, Maria E.;Almeida, Eduardo;Galvan, Maria E.;Grijalva, Israel
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.23
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    • pp.10061-10066
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    • 2015
  • Background: The aetiological relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer (CC) is widely accepted. Our goal was to determine the prevalence of HPV types in Mexican women attending at the Mexican Institute for Social Security from different areas of Mexico. Materials and Methods: DNAs from 2,956 cervical samples were subjected to HPV genotyping: 1,020 samples with normal cytology, 931 with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LGSIL), 481 with high grade HGSIL and 524 CC. Results: Overall HPV prevalence was 67.1%. A total of 40 HPV types were found; HPV16 was detected in 39.4% of the HPV-positive samples followed by HPV18 at 7.5%, HPV31 at 7.1%, HPV59 at 4.9%, and HPV58 at 3.2%. HPV16 presented the highest prevalence both in women with altered or normal cytology and HPV 18 presented a minor prevalence as reported worldwide. The prevalence ratio (PR) was calculated for the HPV types. The analysis of PR showed that HPV16 presents the highest association with CC, HPV 31, -33, -45, -52 and -58 also demonstrating a high association. Conclusions: The most prevalent HPV types in cervical cancer samples were -16, -18, -31, but it is important to note that we obtained a minor prevalence of HPV18 as reported worldwide, and that HPV58 and -52 also were genotypes with an important prevalence in CC samples. Determination of HPV genotypes is very important in order to evaluate the impact of vaccine introduction and future cervical cancer prevention strategies.

Determinants of Consumer Responses to Retail Out-of-Stocks (점포내 품절상황에서 소비자 반응행동유형별 결정요인)

  • Chun, Dal-Young;Choi, Jong-Rae;Joo, Young-Jin
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.29-64
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    • 2011
  • Overview of Research: Product availability is one of important competences of store to fulfill consumer needs. If stock-outs which means a product what consumer wants to buy is not available occurs, consumer will face decision-making uncertainty that leads to consumer's negative responses such as consumer dissatisfaction on store. Stockouts was much studied in the field of academia as well as practice in other countries. However, stock-outs has not been researched at all in Marketing and/or Distribution area in Korea. The main objectives of this study are to find out determinants of consumer responses such as Substitute, Delay, and Leave(SDL) when consumer encounters out-of-stock situation and then to examine the effects of these factors on consumer responses. Specifically, this study focuses on situational characteristics(e.g., purchase urgency and surprise), store characteristics (e.g., product assortment and store convenience), and consumer characteristics (e.g., brand loyalty and store loyalty). Then, this study empirically investigates relationships these factors with consumers behaviors such as product substitution, purchase delay, and store switching.

    shows the research model of this study. To accomplish above-mentioned research objectives, the following ten hypotheses were proposed and verified : ${\bullet}$ H 1 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, purchase urgency will increase product substitution but will decrease purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 2 When out-of-stock situation occurs, surprise will decrease product substitution and purchase delay but will Increase store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 3 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, purchase quantities will increase product substitution and store switching but will decrease purchase delay among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 4 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, pre-purchase plan will decrease product substitution but will increase purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 5 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, product assortment will increase product substitution but will decrease purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 6 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, competitive store price image will increase product substitution and purchase delay but will decrease store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 7 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, store convenience will increase product substitution but will decrease purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 8 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, salesperson services will increase product substitution but will decrease purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 9 : When out-of-stock situation occurs, brand loyalty will decrease product substitution but will increase purchase delay and store switching among consumer responses. ${\bullet}$ H 10 When out-of-stock situation occurs, store loyalty will increase product substitution and purchase delay but will decrease store switching among consumer responses. Analysis: Data were collected from 353 respondents who experienced out-of-stock situations in various store types such as large discount stores, supermarkets, etc. Research model and hypotheses were verified using multinomial logit(MNL) analysis. Results and Implications: is the estimation results of l\1NL model, and
    shows the marginal effects for each determinant to consumer's responses(SDL). Significant statistical results were as follows. Purchase urgency, purchase quantities, pre-purchase plan, product assortment, store price image, brand loyalty, and store loyalty were turned out to be significant determinants to influence consumer alternative behaviors in case of out-of-stock situation. Specifically, first, product substitution behavior was triggered by purchase urgency, surprise, purchase quantities, pre-purchase plan, product assortment, store price image, brand loyalty, and store loyalty. Second, purchase delay behavior was led by purchase urgency, purchase quantities, and brand loyalty. Third, store switching behavior was influenced by purchase urgency, purchase quantities, pre-purchase plan, product assortment, store price image, brand loyalty, and store loyalty. Finally, when out-of-stock situation occurs, store convenience and salesperson service did not have significant effects on consumer alternative responses.

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  • THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PARTICLE INJECTION RATE OBSERVED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AND DST INDEX DURING GEOMAGNETIC STORMS (자기폭풍 기간 중 정지궤도 공간에서의 입자 유입률과 Dst 지수 사이의 상관관계)

    • 문가희;안병호
      • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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      • v.20 no.2
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      • pp.109-122
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      • 2003
    • To examine the causal relationship between geomagnetic storm and substorm, we investigate the correlation between dispersionless particle injection rate of proton flux observed from geosynchronous satellites, which is known to be a typical indicator of the substorm expansion activity, and Dst index during magnetic storms. We utilize geomagnetic storms occurred during the period of 1996 ~ 2000 and categorize them into three classes in terms of the minimum value of the Dst index ($Dst_{min}$); intense ($-200nT{$\leq$}Dst_{min}{$\leq$}-100nT$), moderate($-100nT{\leq}Dst_{min}{\leq}-50nT$), and small ($-50nT{\leq}Dst_{min}{\leq}-30nT$) -30nT)storms. We use the proton flux of the energy range from 50 keV to 670 keV, the major constituents of the ring current particles, observed from the LANL geosynchronous satellites located within the local time sector from 18:00 MLT to 04:00 MLT. We also examine the flux ratio ($f_{max}/f_{ave}$) to estimate particle energy injection rate into the inner magnetosphere, with $f_{ave}$ and $f_{max}$ being the flux levels during quiet and onset levels, respectively. The total energy injection rate into the inner magnetosphere can not be estimated from particle measurements by one or two satellites. However, the total energy injection rate should be at least proportional to the flux ratio and the injection frequency. Thus we propose a quantity, “total energy injection parameter (TEIP)”, defined by the product of the flux ratio and the injection frequency as an indicator of the injected energy into the inner magnetosphere. To investigate the phase dependence of the substorm contribution to the development of magnetic storm, we examine the correlations during the two intervals, main and recovery phase of storm separately. Several interesting tendencies are noted particularly during the main phase of storm. First, the average particle injection frequency tends to increase with the storm size with the correlation coefficient being 0.83. Second, the flux ratio ($f_{max}/f_{ave}$) tends to be higher during large storms. The correlation coefficient between $Dst_{min}$ and the flux ratio is generally high, for example, 0.74 for the 75~113 keV energy channel. Third, it is also worth mentioning that there is a high correlation between the TEIP and $Dst_{min}$ with the highest coefficient (0.80) being recorded for the energy channel of 75~113 keV, the typical particle energies of the ring current belt. Fourth, the particle injection during the recovery phase tends to make the storms longer. It is particularly the case for intense storms. These characteristics observed during the main phase of the magnetic storm indicate that substorm expansion activity is closely associated with the development of mangetic storm.

    Comparison of Property Changes of Black Jujube and Zizyphus jujube Extracts during Lactic Acid Fermentation (흑대추와 일반 건조대추의 추출 및 유산발효과정 중 특성 변화)

    • Auh, Mi Sun;Kim, Yi Seul;Ahn, Seung Joon;Ahn, Jun Bae;Kim, Kwang Yup
      • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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      • v.41 no.10
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      • pp.1346-1355
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      • 2012
    • This study was carried out to investigate the characteristics of black jujube and Zizyphus jujube extracts during lactic acid fermentation. Both extracts were fermented using Lactobacillus fermentum YL-3. As a result, viable cell number rapidly increased until 24 hours, after which it gradually decreased. Before lactic acid fermentation, the $IC_{50}$ of black jujube, which was 0.014 mg/mL, was lower than that of Zizyphus jujube. Further, black jujube showed stronger antioxidant activity (374.21 mg AA eq/g) than Zizyphus jujube. Contents of total polyphenolics in both extracts were 15.46 mg/g and 13.61 mg/g, respectively, whereas contents of total flavonoids were 374.21 ${\mu}g/g$ and 64.25 ${\mu}g/g$. After lactic acid fermentation, there was no significant increase in DPPH or ABTS free radical scavenging activity. Total polyphenolic content of Zizyphus jujube decreased to 12.39 mg/g upon fermentation, whereas flavonoid content significantly increased to 291.58 ${\mu}g/g$. Further, polyphenolic and flavonoid contents of black jujube increased from 15.46 mg/g to 17.46 mg/g and from 374.21 ${\mu}g/g$ to 1,135.29 ${\mu}g/g$, respectively. These results demonstrate that 9-Times Steamed and Dried increased functional components. Especially, lactic acid fermented black jujube showed remarkably high antioxidant activity. These results confirm the potential use of lactic acid fermented black jujube as a valuable resource for the development of functional foods.

    Development and Assessment Individual Maximum Permissible Dose Method of I-131 Therapy in High Risk Patients with Differentiated Papillary Thyroid Cancer (물리학 선량법을 이용한 갑상선암의 개인별 최대안전용량 I-131 치료법 개발과 유용성 평가)

    • Kim, Jeong-Chul;Yoon, Jung-Han;Bom, Hee-Seung;JaeGal, Young-Jong;Song, Ho-Chun;Min, Jung-Joon;Jeong, Heong;Kim, Seong-Min;Heo, Young-Jun;Li, Ming-Hao;Park, Young-Kyu;Chung, June-Key
      • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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      • v.37 no.2
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      • pp.110-119
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      • 2003
    • Purpose: Radioiodine (I-131) therapy is an effective modality to reduce both recurrence and mortality rates in differentiated thyroid cancer. Whether higher doses shows higher therapeutic responses was still debatable. The purpose of this study was to validate curve-fitting (CF) method measuring maximum permissible dose (MPD) by a biological dosimetry using metaphase analysis of peripheral blood lymphocytes. Materials and Methods: Therapeutic effects of MPD was evaluated in 58 patients (49 females and 9 males, mean age $50{\pm}11$ years) of papillary thyroid cancer. Among them 43 patients were treated with ${\Leq}7.4GBq$, while 15 patients with ${\geq}9.25GBq$. The former was defined as low-dose group, and the latter high-dose group. Therapeutic response was defined as complete response when complete disappearance of lesions on follow-up I-131 scan and undetectable serum thyroglobulin levels were found. Statistical comparison between groups were done using chi-square test. P value less than 0.05 was regarded as statistically significant. Results: MPD measured by CF method using tracer and therapeutic doses were $13.3{\pm}1.9\;and\;13.8{\pm}2.1GBq$, respectively (p=0.20). They showed a significant correlation (r=0.8, p<0.0001). Exposed doses to blood measured by CF and biological methods were $1.54{\pm}0.03\;and\;1.78{\pm}0.03Gy$ (p=0.01). They also showed a significant correlation (r=0.86, p=0.01). High-dose group showed a significantly higher rate of complete response (12/15, 80%) as compared to the low-dose group (22/43, 51.2%) (p=0.05). While occurrence of side effects was not different between two groups (40% vs. 30.2%, p=0.46). Conclusion: Measurement of MPD using CF method is reliable, and the high-dose I-131 therapy using MPD gains significantly higher therapeutic effects as compared with low-dose therapy.


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