• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.181-188
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• 2009

Hundreds of thousands of South Korean protesters staged candlelight vigils and demonstrations against US beef imports in 2008. The problems, however, went far beyond that of beef imports. The political party veterans, who lost the presidential election, exploited labor unions that were discontent with the economy and ideological student groups to weaken the majority party. In this study, an epidemiological model is constructed with a system of three nonlinear differential equations. The model seeks to examine the dynamics of the system through stability analysis. Two threshold conditions that spread the protests are identified and a sensitivity analysis on the conditions is performed to isolate the parameters to which the system is most responsive. The results are also explored by deterministic simulations. This model can be easily modified to apply to other protests that may occur in various circumstances.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.415-422
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• 2017

Finding influential factors from given clustering result is a typical data science problem. Genetic Algorithm based method is proposed to derive influential factors and its performance is compared with two conventional methods, Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID), by using Dunn's index measure. To extract the influential factors of preference towards political parties in South Korea, the vote result of $18^{th}$ presidential election and 'Demographic', 'Health and Welfare', 'Economic' and 'Business' related data were used. Based on the analysis, reverse engineering was implemented. Implementation of reverse engineering based approach for influential factor analysis can provide new set of influential variables which can present new insight towards the data mining field.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.361-363
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• 2017

최근 소셜 미디어의 이용률이 폭발적으로 증가함에 따라, 방대한 데이터가 네트워크로 쏟아져 나오고 있다. 이들 데이터는 기존의 정형 데이터뿐만 아니라 이미지, 동영상 등의 비정형 데이터가 있으며, 이들을 포괄하여 빅데이터라고 불린다. 이러한 빅데이터는 오피니언 마이닝, 테스트 마이닝 등의 기술적인 분석 기법과 빅데이터 요약 및 효과적인 표현방법에 대한 시각화 기법에 대하여 활발한 연구가 이루어지고 있다. 이 논문은 인기 있는 사회연결망 서비스인 Twitter의 트윗을 수집하고, 빅데이터 분석 기법인 텍스트 마이닝을 활용하여 2017년 대선에 대하여 분석하였다. 또한 분석된 자료의 효과적인 전달을 위해 워드 클라우드 진행하였다. 이 논문을 위하여 인기 있는 SNS인 Twitter의 최근 7일간 트윗(tweet)을 수집하고 분석하였다.

• The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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• no.32
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• pp.45-78
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• 2012

The significance of Presidential Impeachment in 2004 is subject to interpretations in many different contexts, but its nature as its justice was the constitutional trial by the nation's impeachment system. This study set out to compare and analyze the understanding of the event centered around its nature as "an impeachment event as a public activity" and the records related to it. For that purpose, the study attempted to analyze the impeachment event to understand it as a public activity and examined and analyzed the records of the impeachment event in the public domain through personal visit, phone interview, and request of information disclosure based on the analysis results. An impeachment event as a public activity can be understood as an activity carried out by the National Assembly, which is to issue a motion for impeachment under the norms of the nation's impeachment system, and Constitutional Court, which is responsible for impeachment trial, through their unique rights prescribed in the Constitution. The important subjects of such a public activity included the accused president, the acting presidential system created by the motion for impeachment, and the National Election Commission that provided a decisive ground for impeachment. It was confirmed that the records, which are legal requirements, were well created and have been preserved and managed in the public domain. However, it was difficult to conclude that the records of the impeachment event were thoroughly created in terms of content in relation to affairs as they mainly covered the superficial treatment processes and the results of explicit activities. There was, in particular, the absence of records showing the context of activity.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.195-232
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• 2013

Child care cash benefit policy in Korea started in 2009 limited to the those under 2 years old in the poverty group entitled to National Basic Living Security Act and the near poor group (100,000 won a month). However, in 2013 the coverage has been expanded to everyone under 5 (200,000 won for those between babies in their first year, 150,000 won for the second year and 100,000 won for those between 2 to 5 years old) regardless of the household income level. The policy change between year 2012 and year 2013 requires a rapid increase in child care budget - 760% increase. This paper examines this exceptional expansion in child care cash benefit using policy network analysis. We found that local election as well as general election immediately effect the interaction between policy actors and the types of networks. This suggest that policy actors recognize child care cash benefit to be more directly related to the election result compared with child care services. Also conflictive interaction between the parties and government bodies with budget restraint also facilitated the diversification on the child care cash benefit discussion. The policy making process of child care cash benefit was led to policy adoption immediately after the presidential election suggesting that policy formation process and the policy adoption had an close relationship in the Korean child care cash benefit policy process.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.53
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• pp.100-120
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• 2011

The inauguration of President Lee Myung-bak symbolizes the success of the "Lost 10 Years" election strategy. This study investigated the meaning of the "Lost 10 Years" strategy and compared this strategy to other traditional propaganda strategies. Although the "Lost 10 Years" is a Grand National Party (GNP) election strategy, it also functions as a conservative propaganda strategy by conservative political groups and media. Thus, this study intends to compare the rhetoric of the GNP with conservative media and find any similarities between the two entities in the context of the "Lost 10 Years" propaganda strategies. This study gathered data from various conservative sources such as the GNP homepage and conservative newspapers to uncover common conservative propaganda messages. The results showed that the first-level propaganda strategies are very similar to the second-level traditional Lasswell strategies. This implies that the "Lost 10 Years" strategy benchmarked traditional propaganda strategies and the GNP won the presidential election because the effectiveness of traditional propaganda strategies was culminated with the support of the conservative media. With these research findings, the study discussed the implications of the propaganda strategies used by conservatives and future research prospects about the subject.

• Survey Research
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.25-48
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• 2011

In this paper, we overview the sample design, sampling error, non-response rate and prediction errors of the exit poll conducted for 2010 local elections and discusses how to detect a prediction bias in exit poll. To investigate the bias problem in exit poll in regional(Si-Do) level, we analyze exit poll data for 2007 presidential election and 2006 local elections as well as 2010 local elections in Korea. The measure of predictive accuracy A proposed by Martin et al.(2005) is used to assess the exit poll bias. The empirical studies based on three exit polls clearly show that there exits systematic bias in exit poll and the predictive bias of candidates affiliated to conservative party (such as Hannara-Dang) is serious in the specific regions. The result of this study on systematic bias will be very useful to improving the exit poll methodology in Korea.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.213-243
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• 2017

In the first half of 2016, Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo continued his efforts to secure support from major political parties, often benefiting from internal party conflicts. During the tense campaign for the 2017 Jakarta gubernational election, however, blasphemy charges against incumbent "Ahok", an ethnic Chinese and Christian, put Jokowi in trouble. Led by radical Islamic organizations such as Front Pembela Islam (FPI), half a million people filled Jakarta's streets, calling for Ahok's arrest. The resurgence of identity politics questioned the boundaries of the Indonesian nation and its core premises on the relationship between religion and the state. In the realm of foreign policies, the Jokowi administration maintained its tougher stance against illegal fishing in its waters. In spite of Indonesia's clashes with Chinese vessels in the Natuna sea, however, it is unlikely that the tension will escalate uncontrollably, as the Jokowi administration is seeking investment from rich neighbors for building infrastructure, which will be his key legacy for the 2019 presidential election.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.101-118
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• 2023

The 'MZ generation' is accustomed to expressing their thoughts and opinions online. As a result, the role of social media in understanding the opinions and public sentiment of the MZ generation has become increasingly important. In particular, the role of social media in understanding the opinions of young people in political contexts such as policies and elections is becoming more significant. Traditionally, in such political situations, various institutions conduct opinion surveys to grasp the opinions of the people. However, existing opinion surveys have many errors and limitations in understanding the specific opinions of the entire population since they are conducted on arbitrary individuals through survey techniques. Online communities are representative social media that share the opinions of the public on specific issues such as politics, economics, and culture. Therefore, online communities are widely used as a means to supplement the limitations of traditional opinion polls. In particular, the MZ generation is familiar with online platforms, and their political support has significant influence on election results and policy decisions. With this regard, this study analyzed the relationship between the sentiment reflected in online community text data by age group on major candidates and public opinion survey support rates during the Korean presidential election for those in their 20s. The analysis showed that negative sentiments reflected in online communities by the MZ generation have a negative correlation with public opinion survey support rates. This study contributes to theory and practice by revealing a significant association between social media and public opinion polls.