• Journal of Climate Change Research
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.421-426
• /
• 2016

Significant warming by anthropogenic influences over Korea is analyzed using CMIP5 projections (monthly mean, maximum and minimum temperatures) from RCP 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6 scenarios. Time of emergence (TOE) in JJA and DJF is chosen as the year when the magnitude of warming against the natural climate variability satisfies S/N>2 in 80% of the models in this study. Significant emergence in JJA is expected to appear in 2030s in three RCP scenarios, earlier than TOE in DJF. In DJF, TOE is expected to be 2040s in RCP 8.5 and is delayed in 2060s, 2080s in RCP 4.5, 2.6, respectively. Later emergence in low emission scenarios implies an importance of climate change mitigation consistent with previous studies. Maximum and minimum temperatures show similar results to the case of mean temperature. ToE is found to be affected by the amplitude of natural variability by season, variables and model spread, which requires further understanding.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.17-24
• /
• 2008

Rainfall data from three different types of rain gauge system have been collected for the summertime rain event at Mokpo in the Korean peninsula. The rain gauge system considered in this paper is composed of three tipping-bucket rain gauges with 0.1, 0.2, and 0.5 mm measuring resolutions, the Optical Rain Gauge (ORG), and the PARSIVEL (PARticle SIze and VELocity). The PARSIVEL rainfall rate has been considered as the reference for comparison since it gave good resolution and performance on this event. Comparison with the PARSIVEL rainfall rate gives the results that the error and temporal variation of rainfall rate are simultaneously reduced with increasing the averaging interval of rainfall rate or decreasing the size of tipping bucket. This suggests that the estimated rainfall rate must be optimized, differently for the type of tipping-bucket rain gages, by minimizing the averaging interval of rainfall rate under the condition satisfying the given performance of rainfall rate.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
• /
• 1999.11a
• /
• pp.135-139
• /
• 1999

Wind velocity is one of the primary variables for describing atmospheric state from GMS-5. And its accurate depiction is essential for operational weather forecasting and for initialization of NWP(Numerical Weather Prediction) models. The aim of this research is to incorporate imagery from other available spectral channels and examine the error characteristics of winds derived from these images. Multi spectral imagery from GMS-5 was used for this purpose and applied to Korean region with together BoM(Bureau of Meteorology). The derivation of wind velocity estimates from low and high resolution visible, split window infrared, and water vapor images, resulted in improvements in the amount and quality of wind data available for forecasting.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2006.05a
• /
• pp.129-132
• /
• 2006

A Pacific Ocean circulation model based on the RIAM Ocean Model (RIAMOM) with $1/6^{\circ}C\;and\;1/12^{\circ}C$ horizontal resolution successfully reproduced the peculiar circulation structures of the Pacific Ocean. The volume transports of model agree very well with the results of observations in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Also our model successfully reproduced the observed structures of the northeastward Ryukyu Current with a subsurface core at $500{\sim}600m$. A Possible mechanism for the subsurface current core of the Ryukyu Current is proposed focusing on the blocking effect of the Ryukyu Island Chain.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
• /
• 2003.11a
• /
• pp.331-333
• /
• 2003

KMA successfully began to receive and utilize the GOES-9 GVAR data since May 22nd 2003 when GOES-9 replaced the long-lived GMS-5 for Western Pacific and East Asian region until operation of MTSAT-1R in 2004. To take advantage of improvements of the GOES-9 data over the GMS-5 data, such as the increase of the temporal and spat ial resolution and addition of 3.9${\mu}$m channel, we have improved several algorithms to derive the meteorological products. Here we show two examples of algorithms, sea surface temperature and atmospheric motion vector, and preliminary results of validation of the improved algorithm.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.59-72
• /
• 2016

The comparison of prediction errors in geopotential height, temperature, and precipitation forecasts is made quantitatively to evaluate medium-range forecast skills between Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and Unified Model (UM) in operation by Korea Meteorological Administration during 2014. In addition, the performances in prediction of sea surface temperature anomaly in NINO3.4 region, Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, and tropical storms in western north Pacific are evaluated. The result of evaluations appears that the forecast skill of UM with lower values of root-mean square error is generally superior to GloSea5 during forecast periods (0 to 12 days). The forecast error tends to increase rapidly in GloSea5 during the first half of the forecast period, and then it shows down so that the skill difference between UM and GloSea5 becomes negligible as the forecast time increases. Precipitation forecast of GloSea5 is not as bad as expected and the skill is comparable to that of UM during 10-day forecasts. Especially, in predictions of sea surface temperature in NINO3.4 region, MJO index, and tropical storms in western Pacific, GloSea5 shows similar or better performance than UM. Throughout comparison of forecast skills for main meteorological elements and weather extremes during medium-range, the effects of initial and model errors in atmosphere-ocean coupled model are verified and it is suggested that GloSea5 is useful system for not only seasonal forecasts but also short- and medium-range forecasts.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.221-233
• /
• 2015

Pollen is closely related to health issues such as allergenic rhinitis and asthma as well as intensifying atopic syndrome. Information on current and future spatio-temporal distribution of allergenic pollen is needed to address such issues. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ) was utilized as a base modeling system to forecast pollen dispersal from oak trees. Pollen emission is one of the most important parts in the dispersal modeling system. Areal emission factor was determined from gridded areal fraction of oak trees, which was produced by the analysis of the tree type maps (1:5000) obtained from the Korea Forest Service. Daily total pollen production was estimated by a robust multiple regression model of weather conditions and pollen concentration. Hourly emission factor was determined from wind speed and friction velocity. Hourly pollen emission was then calculated by multiplying areal emission factor, daily total pollen production, and hourly emission factor. Forecast data from the KMA UM LDAPS (Korea Meteorological Administration Unified Model Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) was utilized as input. For the verification of the model, daily observed pollen concentration from 12 sites in Korea during the pollen season of 2014. Although the model showed a tendency of over-estimation in terms of the seasonal and daily mean concentrations, overall concentration was similar to the observation. Comparison at the hourly output showed distinctive delay of the peak hours by the model at the 'Pocheon' site. It was speculated that the constant release of hourly number of pollen in the modeling framework caused the delay.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.16 no.4
• /
• pp.269-278
• /
• 2006

Extremely hot weathers may cause major weather-related deaths in the summertime. Influences of heat waves on daily mortalities in 6 major cities of South Korea were investigated. Daily deaths at Seoul were exponentially increased with the daily maximum temperature. However, there were regional differences of the temperature dependence on the mortality because of an acclimation effect of inhabitants. The threshold temperature (with respect to daily maximum temperature) at Seoul was found to be about $31^{\circ}C$ provided that it is determined by a two-phase regression model. The meteorological causes of recordable hot summer in late July of 1994 and their impacts on human health were also investigated. Strong surface heating caused by strong insolation under conditions with clear sky and dry surface due to prolonged drought was likely to be closely associated with the extreme hot weather in 1994 in South Korea.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.419-432
• /
• 2014

An assessment of typhoon intensity predictability of numerical models was conducted to develop the typhoon intensity forecast guidance comparing with the RSMC-Tokyo best track data. Root mean square error, box plot analysis and time series of wind speed comparison were performed to evaluate the each model error level. One of noticeable fact is that all models have a trend of error increase as typhoon becomes stronger and the Global Forecast System showed the best performance among the models. In the detailed analysis in two typhoon cases [Danas (1324) and Haiyan (1330)], GFS showed good performance in maximum wind speed and intensity trend in the best track, however it could not simulate well the rapid intensity increasing period. On the other hand, ECMWF and Hurricane-WRF overestimated the typhoon intensity but simulated track trend well.

• Proceedings of the Korea Air Pollution Research Association Conference
• /
• 2008.10a
• /
• pp.498-499
• /
• 2008