• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.85-95
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• 2005

The margin level in the futures market platys an important role in balancing the default probability with the investor's opportunity cost. In this paper, we investigate whether the movement of KOSPI200 futures daily prices can be modeled with the extreme value theory. Based on this investigation, we examine the validity of the margin level set by the extreme value theory. Moreover, we propose an expected profit-maximization model for securities companies. In this model, the extreme value theory is used for cost estimation, and a regression analysis is used for revenue calculation. Computational results are presented to compare the extreme value distribution with the empirical distribution of margin violation in KOSPI200 and to examine the suitability of the expected profit-maximization model.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.16
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• pp.145-168
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• 2003

This study is mainly aimed at analyzing the influence of the divergency(mispricing) between KOSPI 200 theoretical prices and its real prices of KOSPI 200 spot index, considering the existence of arbitrage opportunity from the mispricing. The data in this study are the daily prices of 1262 days, from 3 May 1996 to 14 December 2000. The results of our empirical study represent that the real prices in KOSPI 200 Stock Index Futures are continuously undervalued relative to their corresponding theoretical prices. Our study reconfirms the results from previous studies conducted at the domestic and overseas markets. We conclude that the undervaluation, especially in the market opening period, could come from fear of investors, whose experiences in the stock index futures market are limited, chiefly because of loss and uncertainty of prediction toward interest rates and dividends. Our study also represents that KOSPI 200 index shows more volatilities during days with mispricing relative to days without mispricing.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1449-1466
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• 2014

In this paper, we consider a hedge portfolio based on futures of underlying asset. A classical way to estimate a hedge ratio for a hedge portfolio of a spot and futures is a regression analysis. However, a regression analysis is not capable of reflecting long-run equilibrium between a spot and futures and volatility clustering in the conditional variance of financial time series. In order to overcome such defects, we analyzed KOSPI200 index and futures using VECM-CC-GARCH model and computed a hedge ratio from the estimated conditional covariance-variance matrix. In real data analysis, we compared a regression and VECM-CC-GARCH models in terms of hedge effectiveness based on variance, value at risk and expected shortfall of log-returns of hedge portfolio. The empirical results show that the multivariate GARCH models significantly outperform a regression analysis and improve hedging effectiveness in the period of high volatility.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.235-261
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• 2003

We examine the relationship between the trading activities of Korea Stock Price Index (KOSPI) 200 futures contract and its underlying stock market volatility for about six years from May 1996 when the futures contract was introduced. The trading activities of the futures contracts are proxied by the volume and open interest, which are divided into expected and unexpected portions by using the previous data. The daily, intradilay, and overnight cash volatility is estimated by the GJR-GARCH model. We find a positive contemporaneous relationship between the intradaily stock market volatility and the unexpected futures volume while the relationship between the volatility and expected futures volume is weakly negative or non-existent. We also find that the unexpected futures volume strongly causes intradaily cash volatility. On the other hand, the overnight cash volatility causes the unexpected futures volume. The impulse responses between these variables are all positive. The result implies that during a trading time futures trading tends to increase the cash volatility while the unexpected overnight changes in cash volatility tends to increase the futures trading activities. We, however, find no association between the cash volatility and futures maturities.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.3-18
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between KOSPI200 Futures and KTB Futures in inter market and intra market. We are focusing on which market would be lead. The empirical results have indicated that there are no lead or lag effect between KOSPI200 Futures and KTB Futures market. But some positive correlation appeared, we used to know negative correlation between stock and bond market, which is a new finding. As a conclusion, the market still have an efficiency with co-movement.

• 한국산학경영학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2006.12a
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• pp.107-120
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• 2006

This thesis examines the relationship between the trading volume and price return in the korean stock Index Futures until June 2005. First, the volume of KOSPI200 futures doesn't play a primary role with the clear explanation of return model. Second, an unexpected volume shocks are negatively associated with the return in case of the KOSPI200 futures, but it is a meaningless relation in the KOSDAQ50 futures. In the case of open interest, it's difficult to find any mean in a both futures. Third, The changes in the trading volumes by foreign investors are positively associated with the return and the volatility, but individuals and domestic commercial investors are negatively associated with the return. This empirical result seems that foreign investors are initiatively trading the korean stock index futures, individuals and domestic commercial investors follow the lead made by foreign investors.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.107-134
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• 2007

This paper tests the relationship among returns, volatilities, contracts and open interests of KOSPI 200 futures markets with the various dynamic models such as granger-causality, impulse response, variance decomposition and ARMA(1, 1)-GJR-GARCH(1, 1)-M. The sample period is from July 7, 1998 to December 29, 2005. The main empirical results are as follows; First, both contract change and open interest change of KOSPI 200 futures market tend to lead the returns of that according to the results of granger-causality, impulse response and variance decomposition with VAR. These results are likely to support the KOSPI 200 futures market seems to be inefficient with rejecting the hypothesis 1. Second, we also find that the returns and volatilities of the KOSPI 200 futures market are effected by both contract change and open interest change of that due to the results of ARMA(1,1)-GJR-GARCH(1,1)-M. These results also reject the hypothesis 1 and 2 suggesting the evidences of inefficiency of the KOSPI 200 futures market. Third, the study shows the asymmetric information effects among the variables. In addition, we can find the feedback relationship between the contract change and open interest change of KOSPI 200 futures market.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.309-335
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• 1999

본 연구는 KOSPI 200 선물을 이용하여 옵션복제방식에 의한 포트폴리오 보험전략을 구축하고 KOSPI 200 지수와 KOSPI 200 구성주식의 일부로 이루어지는 개별 포트폴리오들을 대상으로 실증분석을 하였다. 본 연구의 결과에 의하면, 포트폴리오 보험전략의 성과는 헤지의 대상이 되는 현물포트폴리오별, 보험수준별, 재조정 기준별로 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. KOSPI 200 지수포트폴리오에 대한 헤지는 대체로 약세시장에서 포트폴리오 가치하락을 감소시키면서 시세상승에 편승할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. KOSPI 200 구성주식의 일부로 이루어진 포트폴리오에 대한 헤지는 수익성이 높고 베타값이 높으면서 시가총액이 큰 제조업이나 전기통신업에 속하는 기업의 주식으로 포트폴리오가 구성되었을 때 대체로 헤지성과가 높았다. 또한 KOSPI 200 지수포트폴리오는 보험수준을 낮게 할수록 헤지성과가 높은 것으로 나타난 반면, KOSPI 200 구성주식의 일부로 이루어진 포트폴리오의 경우에는 보험수준과 헤지성과간의 관계가 일정치가 않았다. 재조정 기준별로는 3% 재조정 기준을 적용하였을 때 헤지성과가 가장 높았으며, 가장 빈번하게 재조정을 해야하는 일별 재조정 기준에 의할 경우는 거래비용이 상대적으로 높았다.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.73-82
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• 2017

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate a profit maximizing incentive of foreign traders in distributing the KOSPI 200 Futures. Such an incentive may induce unsophisticated retail traders to suffer loss from speculative trading. Since Korean government increased the entry barriers of the market to protect unsophisticated traders, the market size has been decreasing while the proportion of the contract held by foreign traders has been increasing. These on going changes make the market imperfectly competitive, where a profit maximization incentives of foreign traders are expected to grow. In this paper, we attempt to find any evidence of such behavior, thereby providing implications regarding market policy and market efficiency. Research design, data, and methodology - According to Kyle(1985), an informed trader exploits his/her monopoly power optimally in a dynamic context so that he/she makes positive profit, where he/she could conceal his/her trading utilizing noise trading as camouflage. We apply the KOSPI 200 Futures market to the Kyle's model: foreign traders who take into account the effect of his/her trading to maximize expected profits as an informed trader, retail investors as noise traders, and financial institutions as market makers. To find any evidence of monopolistic behavior, we test the variants of trading volume and price data of the KOSPI 200 Futures over the period of 2009 and 2017. Results - First, we find that the price of the KOSPI 200 Futures are more volatile than the price of underlying asset. Second, we find that monopolistic foreign trader's trading order flows are consistent with exploiting his/her monopoly power to maximize profit. Finally, we find that retail investors' trading order flows are inversely consistent with maximizing profit, that is, uninformed retail investors suffer loss continuously in speculative trading against informed traders. Conclusions - Our results show that the quantity of strategic order flows may have a large effect on the price, therefore, resulting the market inefficiency. The results also imply that, in implementing regulations, the depth of the market must be considered to maintain market liquidity, and suggesting interesting research topics regarding the market structure.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.235-244
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• 2013

In this study, we propose a new trading strategy by using a trading volume index in KOSPI200 futures market. Many studies have been conducted with respect to the relationship between volume and price, but none of them is clearly concluded. This study analyzes the economic usefulness of investment strategy, using volume index. This analysis shows that the trading volume is a preceding index. This paper contains two objectives. The first objective is to make an index using Correlated Volume Index (CVI) and second objective is to find an appropriate timing to buy or sell the Kospi200 future index. The results of this study proved the importance of the proposed model in KOSPI200 futures market, and it will help many investors to make the right investment decision.