• 한국산학경영학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국산학경영학회 2006년도 추계학술발표대회 발표논문집
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• pp.107-120
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• 2006

This thesis examines the relationship between the trading volume and price return in the korean stock Index Futures until June 2005. First, the volume of KOSPI200 futures doesn't play a primary role with the clear explanation of return model. Second, an unexpected volume shocks are negatively associated with the return in case of the KOSPI200 futures, but it is a meaningless relation in the KOSDAQ50 futures. In the case of open interest, it's difficult to find any mean in a both futures. Third, The changes in the trading volumes by foreign investors are positively associated with the return and the volatility, but individuals and domestic commercial investors are negatively associated with the return. This empirical result seems that foreign investors are initiatively trading the korean stock index futures, individuals and domestic commercial investors follow the lead made by foreign investors.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.37-49
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• 2017

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between KOSPI200 stock index and stock index futures and stock index option markets which is its derived from KOSPI200 stock index. We use 5-minutes rate of return data from 2012. 06 to 2014. 12. To empirical analysis, this study use autocorrelation and cross-correlation analysis as a preliminary analysis and then following Stoll and Whaley(1990) and Chan(1992), the multiple regression is estimated to examine the lead-lag patterns between the stock index and stock index futures and option markets by Newey and West's(1987) Empirical results of our study shows as follows. First, there exist a strong autocorrelation in the KOSPI200 stock index before 10minutes but a very weak autocorrelation in the stock index futures and option markets. Second, there is a strong evidence that stock index future and option markets lead KOSPI200 stock index in the cross-correlation analysis. Third, based on the multiple regression, the stock index futures and option markets lead the stock index prior to 10-15 minutes and weak evidence that the stock index leads the future and option markets. This results show that the market efficient of KOSPI200 stock index market is improved as compared to the early stage of stock index future and option market.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.196-204
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• 2002

This paper examines the price discovery role of the KOSPI 200 futures index for its cash index. It was used the intrady data for KOSPI 200 and futures index from July 1998 to June 2001. The existing Preceding study for KOSPI 200 futures index was used the data of early market installation, but this study is distinguished to use a recent data accompanied with the great volume of transaction and various investors. We established three hypothesis to examine whether there is the price discovery role in the KOPSI 200 futures index and the characteristics of that. First, to examine whether the lead-lag relation is induced by the infrequent trading of component stocks, observations are sorted by the size of the trading volume of cash index. In a low trading volume, the long lead time is reported and the short lead time in a high volume. It is explained that the infrequent trading effect have an influence on the price discovery role. Second, to examine whether the lead-lag relation is different under bad news and good news, observations are sorted by the sign and size of cash index returns. In a bad news the long lead time is reported and the short lead time in a good news. This is explained by the restriction of"short selling" of the cash index Third, we compared estimates of the lead and lag relationships on the expiration day with those on days prior to expiration using a minute-to-minute data. The futures-to-spot lead time on the expiration day was at least as long as other days Prior to expiration, suggesting that "expiration day effects" did not demonstrate a temporal character substantially different form earlier days. Thus, while arbitrage activity may be presumed to be the greatest at expiration, such arbitrage transactions were not sufficiently strong or Pervasive to alter the empirical price relationship for the entire day. for the entire day.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.45-63
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• 2014

A trading system is a computer trading program that automatically submits trades to an exchange. Mechanical a trading system to execute trade is spreading in the stock market. However, a trading system to trade a single asset might occur instability of the profit because payoff of this system is determined a asset movement. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a trading system that is trade two assets such as a pair trading that is to sell overvalued assets and buy the undervalued ones. The aim of this study is to propose a relative value based trading system designed to yield stable and profitable profits regardless of market conditions. In fact, we propose a procedure for building a trading system that is based on the rough set analysis of indicators derived from a price ratio between two assets. KOSPI 200 index futures and S&P 500 index futures are used as a data for evaluation of the proposed trading system. We intend to examine the usefulness of this model through an empirical study.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.189-207
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• 2013

Using high-frequency data for 2 years, this study investigates intraday lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures markets in Korea and China. We found that there are some differences in price discovery and volatility transmission between Korea and China after the stock index futures markets was introduced. Following Stoll-Whaley(1990) and Chan(1992), the multiple regression is estimated to examine the lead-lag patterns between the two markets by Newey-West's(1987) heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix(HAC matrix). Empirical results of KOSPI 200 shows that the futures market leads the cash market and weak evidence that the cash market leads the futures market. New market information disseminates in the futures market before the stock market with index arbitrageurs then stepping in quickly to bring the cost-of-carry relation back into alignment. The regression tests for the conditional volatility which is estimated using EGARCH model do not show that there is a clear pattern of the futures market leading the stock market in terms of the volatility even though controlling nonsynchronous trading effects. This implies that information in price innovations that originate in the futures market is transmitted to the volatility of the cash market. Empirical results of CSI 300 shows that the cash market is found to play a more dominant role in the price discovery process after the Chinese index started a sharp decline immediately after the stock index futures were introduced. The new stock index futures markets does not function well in its price discovery performance at its infancy stage, apparently due to high barriers to entry into this emerging futures markets. Based on EGAECH model, the results uncover strong bi-directional dependence in the intraday volatility of both markets.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.205-229
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• 2004

The deviation from put-call parity condition may affect market prices since it provides an opportunity of arbitrage to many participants. This study uses the KOSPI200 index data and examines the interdependence among spot, futures, and options contracts by examining whether the deviations from the parity have significant roles in price formation. Whenever the parity condition is violated, the deviation tends to affect the prices significantly in most markets. The results show that positive values of deviation are associated with the fall of the prices in the spot and put option contracts and the rise of the call option premiums, thus decreasing the deviations. Also, the decreasing impact of deviations lasts for at Beast an hour in most markets. Futures prices, however, do not show clear relations with the deviations, which suggests the possibility that futures markets lead other markets.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.111-130
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• 2008

This paper compares long term equilibrium relation of KOSPI 200 which is underling stock and its futures by using general method fractional cointegration instead of existing integer cointegration. Existence of integer cointegration between two price time series gives much wider information about long term equilibrium relation. These details grasp long term equilibrium relation of two price time series as well as reverting velocity to equilibrium by observing difference coefficient of error term when it renounces from equilibrium relation. The result of this study reveals existence of long term equilibrium relation between KOSPI200 and futures which follow fractional cointegration. Difference coefficient, d, of 'two price time series error term' satisfies 0 < d < 1/2 beside bandwidth parameter, m(173). It means two price time series follow stationary long memory process. This also means impulse effects to balance price of two price time series decrease gently within hyperbolic rate decay. It indicates reverting speed of error term is very low when it bolts from equilibrium. It implies to market maker, who is willing to make excess return with arbitrage trading and hedging risk using underling stock, how invest strategy should be changed. It also insinuates that information transition between KOSPI 200 Index market and futures market does not working efficiently.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.235-261
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• 2003

We examine the relationship between the trading activities of Korea Stock Price Index (KOSPI) 200 futures contract and its underlying stock market volatility for about six years from May 1996 when the futures contract was introduced. The trading activities of the futures contracts are proxied by the volume and open interest, which are divided into expected and unexpected portions by using the previous data. The daily, intradilay, and overnight cash volatility is estimated by the GJR-GARCH model. We find a positive contemporaneous relationship between the intradaily stock market volatility and the unexpected futures volume while the relationship between the volatility and expected futures volume is weakly negative or non-existent. We also find that the unexpected futures volume strongly causes intradaily cash volatility. On the other hand, the overnight cash volatility causes the unexpected futures volume. The impulse responses between these variables are all positive. The result implies that during a trading time futures trading tends to increase the cash volatility while the unexpected overnight changes in cash volatility tends to increase the futures trading activities. We, however, find no association between the cash volatility and futures maturities.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.243-266
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• 2006

This paper tests cross hedging performance of the KOSPI 200 stock index futures to hedge the downside risk of the KOSPI, KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ50 spot market. For this purpose we introduce the minimum variance hedge model, bivariate GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) model as hedge models. The main results are as follows; First, we find that the direct hedge performance of KOSPI 200 index futures is better than those of indirect hedge performance. second, in case or cross hedge performance the hedge effect of KOSPI 200 stock index futures market against KOSPI 200 stock index spot market is relatively better than those of KOSPI 200 index futures against KOSPI and KOSDAQ spot position. Third, for the out-sample, hedging effectiveness of the risk-minimization with constant hedge ratios is higher than those of the time varying bivariate GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) model. In conclusion, investors are encouraged to use simple risk-minimization model rather than the time varying hedge models like GARCH and EGARCH model to hedge the position of the Korean stock index cash markets.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.41-79
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• 2007

This study examines the expiration-day effects of stock index futures and options in the Korean stock market. The so-called 'expiration-day effects', which are the abnormal stock price movements on derivatives expiration days, arise mainly from cash settlement. Index arbitragers have to bear the risk of their positions unless they liquidate their index stocks on the expiration day. If many arbitragers execute large buy or sell orders on the expiration day, abnormal trading volumes are likely to be observed. If a lot of arbitragers unwind positions in the same direction, temporary trading imbalances induce abnormal stock market volatility. By contrast, if some information arrives at market, the abnormal trading activity must be considered a normal process of price discovery. Stoll and Whaley(1987) investigated the aggregate price and volume effects of the S&P 500 index on the expiration day. In a related study, Stoll and Whaley(1990) found a similarity between the price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading and of the stocks that are not. Thus far, there have been few studies about the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market. While previous Korean studies use the KOSPI 200 index data, we analyze the price and trading volume behavior of individual stocks as well as the index. Analyzing individual stocks is important for two reasons. First, stock index is a market average. Consequently, it cannot reflect the behavior of many individual stocks. For example, if the expiration-day effects are mainly related to a specific group, it cannot be said that the expiration of derivatives itself destabilizes the stock market. Analyzing individual stocks enables us to investigate the scope of the expiration-day effects. Second, we can find the relationship between the firm characteristics and the expiration-day effects. For example, if the expiration-day effects exist in large stocks not belonging to the KOSPI 200 index, program trading may not be related to the expiration-day effects. The examination of individual stocks has led us to the cause of the expiration-day effects. Using the intraday data during the period May 3, 1996 through December 30, 2003, we first examine the price and volume effects of the KOSPI 200 and NON-KOSPI 200 index following the Stoll and Whaley(1987) methodology. We calculate the NON-KOSPI 200 index by using the returns and market capitalization of the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 index. In individual stocks, we divide KOSPI 200 stocks by size into three groups and match NON-KOSPI 200 stocks with KOSPI 200 stocks having the closest firm characteristics. We compare KOSPI 200 stocks with NON-KOSPI 200 stocks. To test whether the expiration-day effects are related to order imbalances or new information, we check price reversals on the next day. Finally, we perform a cross-sectional regression analysis to elaborate on the impact of the firm characteristics on price reversals. The main results seem to support the expiration-day effects, especially on stock index futures expiration days. The price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading is shown to have price effects, abnormal return volatility, and large volumes during the last half hour of trading on the expiration day. Return reversals are also found in the KOSPI 200 index and stocks. However, there is no evidence of abnormal trading volume, or price reversals in the NON-KOSPI 200 index and stocks. The expiration-day effects are proportional to the size of stocks and the nearness to the settlement time. Since program trading is often said to be concentrated in high capitalization stocks, these results imply that the expiration-day effects seem to be associated with program trading and the settlement price determination procedure. In summary, the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market do not exist in all stocks, but in large capitalization stocks belonging to the KOSPI 200 index. Additionally, the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market are generally due, not to information, but to trading imbalances.