• Title/Summary/Keyword: K-fold 교차검증

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Prediction and analysis of acute fish toxicity of pesticides to the rainbow trout using 2D-QSAR (2D-QSAR방법을 이용한 농약류의 무지개 송어 급성 어독성 분석 및 예측)

  • Song, In-Sik;Cha, Ji-Young;Lee, Sung-Kwang
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.544-555
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    • 2011
  • The acute toxicity in the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was analyzed and predicted using quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR). The aquatic toxicity, 96h $LC_{50}$ (median lethal concentration) of 275 organic pesticides, was obtained from EU-funded project DEMETRA. Prediction models were derived from 558 2D molecular descriptors, calculated in PreADMET. The linear (multiple linear regression) and nonlinear (support vector machine and artificial neural network) learning methods were optimized by taking into account the statistical parameters between the experimental and predicted p$LC_{50}$. After preprocessing, population based forward selection were used to select the best subsets of descriptors in the learning methods including 5-fold cross-validation procedure. The support vector machine model was used as the best model ($R^2_{CV}$=0.677, RMSECV=0.887, MSECV=0.674) and also correctly classified 87% for the training set according to EU regulation criteria. The MLR model could describe the structural characteristics of toxic chemicals and interaction with lipid membrane of fish. All the developed models were validated by 5 fold cross-validation and Y-scrambling test.

Prediction of Greenhouse Strawberry Production Using Machine Learning Algorithm (머신러닝 알고리즘을 이용한 온실 딸기 생산량 예측)

  • Kim, Na-eun;Han, Hee-sun;Arulmozhi, Elanchezhian;Moon, Byeong-eun;Choi, Yung-Woo;Kim, Hyeon-tae
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2022
  • Strawberry is a stand-out cultivating fruit in Korea. The optimum production of strawberry is highly dependent on growing environment. Smart farm technology, and automatic monitoring and control system maintain a favorable environment for strawberry growth in greenhouses, as well as play an important role to improve production. Moreover, physiological parameters of strawberry plant and it is surrounding environment may allow to give an idea on production of strawberry. Therefore, this study intends to build a machine learning model to predict strawberry's yield, cultivated in greenhouse. The environmental parameter like as temperature, humidity and CO2 and physiological parameters such as length of leaves, number of flowers and fruits and chlorophyll content of 'Seolhyang' (widely growing strawberry cultivar in Korea) were collected from three strawberry greenhouses located in Sacheon of Gyeongsangnam-do during the period of 2019-2020. A predictive model, Lasso regression was designed and validated through 5-fold cross-validation. The current study found that performance of the Lasso regression model is good to predict the number of flowers and fruits, when the MAPE value are 0.511 and 0.488, respectively during the model validation. Overall, the present study demonstrates that using AI based regression model may be convenient for farms and agricultural companies to predict yield of crops with fewer input attributes.

Analysis of stage III proximal colon cancer using the Cox proportional hazards model (Cox 비례위험모형을 이용한 우측 대장암 3기 자료 분석)

  • Lee, Taeseob;Lee, Minjung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.349-359
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we conducted survival analyses by fitting the Cox proportional hazards model to stage III proximal colon cancer data obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of the National Cancer Institute. We investigated the effect of covariates on the hazard function for death from proximal colon cancer in stage III with surgery performed and estimated the survival probability for a patient with specific covariates. We showed that the proportional hazards assumption is satisfied for covariates that were used to analyses, using a test based on the Schoenfeld residuals and plots of the Schoenfeld residuals and $log[-log\{{\hat{S}}(t)\}]$. We evaluated the model calibration and discriminatory accuracy by calibration plot and time-dependent area under the ROC curve, which were calculated using 10-fold cross validation.

Development of Type 2 Prediction Prediction Based on Big Data (빅데이터 기반 2형 당뇨 예측 알고리즘 개발)

  • Hyun Sim;HyunWook Kim
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.999-1008
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    • 2023
  • Early prediction of chronic diseases such as diabetes is an important issue, and improving the accuracy of diabetes prediction is especially important. Various machine learning and deep learning-based methodologies are being introduced for diabetes prediction, but these technologies require large amounts of data for better performance than other methodologies, and the learning cost is high due to complex data models. In this study, we aim to verify the claim that DNN using the pima dataset and k-fold cross-validation reduces the efficiency of diabetes diagnosis models. Machine learning classification methods such as decision trees, SVM, random forests, logistic regression, KNN, and various ensemble techniques were used to determine which algorithm produces the best prediction results. After training and testing all classification models, the proposed system provided the best results on XGBoost classifier with ADASYN method, with accuracy of 81%, F1 coefficient of 0.81, and AUC of 0.84. Additionally, a domain adaptation method was implemented to demonstrate the versatility of the proposed system. An explainable AI approach using the LIME and SHAP frameworks was implemented to understand how the model predicts the final outcome.

Analysis of extreme wind speed and precipitation using copula (코플라함수를 이용한 극단치 강풍과 강수 분석)

  • Kwon, Taeyong;Yoon, Sanghoo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.797-810
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    • 2017
  • The Korean peninsula is exposed to typhoons every year. Typhoons cause huge socioeconomic damage because tropical cyclones tend to occur with strong winds and heavy precipitation. In order to understand the complex dependence structure between strong winds and heavy precipitation, the copula links a set of univariate distributions to a multivariate distribution and has been actively studied in the field of hydrology. In this study, we carried out analysis using data of wind speed and precipitation collected from the weather stations in Busan and Jeju. Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull distributions were considered to explain marginal distributions of the copula. Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramer-von-Mises, and Anderson-Darling test statistics were employed for testing the goodness-of-fit of marginal distribution. Observed pseudo data were calculated through inverse transformation method for establishing the copula. Elliptical, archimedean, and extreme copula were considered to explain the dependence structure between strong winds and heavy precipitation. In selecting the best copula, we employed the Cramer-von-Mises test and cross-validation. In Busan, precipitation according to average wind speed followed t copula and precipitation just as maximum wind speed adopted Clayton copula. In Jeju, precipitation according to maximum wind speed complied Normal copula and average wind speed as stated in precipitation followed Frank copula and maximum wind speed according to precipitation observed Husler-Reiss copula.

Estimation of Rice Yield by Province in South Korea based on Meteorological Variables (기상자료를 이용한 남한지역 도별 쌀 생산량 추정)

  • Hur, Jina;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Kim, Yongseok;Kang, Kee-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.599-605
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    • 2019
  • Rice yield (kg 10a-1) in South Korea was estimated by meteorological variables that are influential factors in crop growth. This study investigated the possibility of anticipating the rice yield variability using a simple but an efficient statistical method, a multiple linear regression analysis, on the basis of the annual variation of meteorological variables. Due to heterogeneous environmental conditions by region, the yearly rice yield was assessed and validated for each province in South Korea. The monthly mean meteorological data for the period 1986-2018 (33 years) from 61 weather stations provided by Korean Meteorological Administration was used as the independent variable in the regression analysis. An 11-fold (leave-three-out) cross-validation was performed to check the accuracy of this method estimating rice yield at each province. This result demonstrated that temporal variation of rice yield by province in South Korea can be properly estimated using such concise procedure in terms of correlation coefficient (0.7, not significant). Furthermore, the estimated rice yield well captured spatial features of observation with mean bias of 0.7 kg 10a-1 (0.15%). This method may offer useful information on rice yield by province in advance as long as accurate agro-meteorological forecasts are timely obtained from climate models.

A SVR Based-Pseudo Modified Einstein Procedure Incorporating H-ADCP Model for Real-Time Total Sediment Discharge Monitoring (실시간 총유사량 모니터링을 위한 H-ADCP 연계 수정 아인슈타인 방법의 의사 SVR 모형)

  • Noh, Hyoseob;Son, Geunsoo;Kim, Dongsu;Park, Yong Sung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.321-335
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    • 2023
  • Monitoring sediment loads in natural rivers is the key process in river engineering, but it is costly and dangerous. In practice, suspended loads are directly measured, and total loads, which is a summation of suspended loads and bed loads, are estimated. This study proposes a real-time sediment discharge monitoring system using the horizontal acoustic Doppler current profiler (H-ADCP) and support vector regression (SVR). The proposed system is comprised of the SVR model for suspended sediment concentration (SVR-SSC) and for total loads (SVR-QTL), respectively. SVR-SSC estimates SSC and SVR-QTL mimics the modified Einstein procedure. The grid search with K-fold cross validation (Grid-CV) and the recursive feature elimination (RFE) were employed to determine SVR's hyperparameters and input variables. The two SVR models showed reasonable cross-validation scores (R2) with 0.885 (SVR-SSC) and 0.860 (SVR-QTL). During the time-series sediment load monitoring period, we successfully detected various sediment transport phenomena in natural streams, such as hysteresis loops and sensitive sediment fluctuations. The newly proposed sediment monitoring system depends only on the gauged features by H-ADCP without additional assumptions in hydraulic variables (e.g., friction slope and suspended sediment size distribution). This method can be applied to any ADCP-installed discharge monitoring station economically and is expected to enhance temporal resolution in sediment monitoring.

Probabilistic K-nearest neighbor classifier for detection of malware in android mobile (안드로이드 모바일 악성 앱 탐지를 위한 확률적 K-인접 이웃 분류기)

  • Kang, Seungjun;Yoon, Ji Won
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.817-827
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    • 2015
  • In this modern society, people are having a close relationship with smartphone. This makes easier for hackers to gain the user's information by installing the malware in the user's smartphone without the user's authority. This kind of action are threats to the user's privacy. The malware characteristics are different to the general applications. It requires the user's authority. In this paper, we proposed a new classification method of user requirements method by each application using the Principle Component Analysis(PCA) and Probabilistic K-Nearest Neighbor(PKNN) methods. The combination of those method outputs the improved result to classify between malware and general applications. By using the K-fold Cross Validation, the measurement precision of PKNN is improved compare to the previous K-Nearest Neighbor(KNN). The classification which difficult to solve by KNN also can be solve by PKNN with optimizing the discovering the parameter k and ${\beta}$. Also the sample that has being use in this experiment is based on the Contagio.

Motor Imagery EEG Classification Method using EMD and FFT (EMD와 FFT를 이용한 동작 상상 EEG 분류 기법)

  • Lee, David;Lee, Hee-Jae;Lee, Sang-Goog
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.41 no.12
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    • pp.1050-1057
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    • 2014
  • Electroencephalogram (EEG)-based brain-computer interfaces (BCI) can be used for a number of purposes in a variety of industries, such as to replace body parts like hands and feet or to improve user convenience. In this paper, we propose a method to decompose and extract motor imagery EEG signal using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT). The EEG signal classification consists of the following three steps. First, during signal decomposition, the EMD is used to generate Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) from the EEG signal. Then during feature extraction, the power spectral density (PSD) is used to identify the frequency band of the IMFs generated. The FFT is used to extract the features for motor imagery from an IMF that includes mu rhythm. Finally, during classification, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used to classify the features of the motor imagery EEG signal. 10-fold cross-validation was then used to estimate the generalization capability of the given classifier., and the results show that the proposed method has an accuracy of 84.50% which is higher than that of other methods.

A Study for Estimation of High Resolution Temperature Using Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning Models during Heat Waves (위성영상과 머신러닝 모델을 이용한 폭염기간 고해상도 기온 추정 연구)

  • Lee, Dalgeun;Lee, Mi Hee;Kim, Boeun;Yu, Jeonghum;Oh, Yeongju;Park, Jinyi
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_4
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    • pp.1179-1194
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the feasibility of three algorithms, K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN), Random Forest (RF) and Neural Network (NN), for estimating the air temperature of an unobserved area where the weather station is not installed. The satellite image were obtained from Landsat-8 and MODIS Aqua/Terra acquired in 2019, and the meteorological ground weather data were from AWS/ASOS data of Korea Meteorological Administration and Korea Forest Service. In addition, in order to improve the estimation accuracy, a digital surface model, solar radiation, aspect and slope were used. The accuracy assessment of machine learning methods was performed by calculating the statistics of R2 (determination coefficient) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) through 10-fold cross-validation and the estimated values were compared for each target area. As a result, the neural network algorithm showed the most stable result among the three algorithms with R2 = 0.805 and RMSE = 0.508. The neural network algorithm was applied to each data set on Landsat imagery scene. It was possible to generate an mean air temperature map from June to September 2019 and confirmed that detailed air temperature information could be estimated. The result is expected to be utilized for national disaster safety management such as heat wave response policies and heat island mitigation research.