• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.17
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• pp.7991-7995
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• 2015

Background: To identify the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in China during the period of 1991-2011, and forecast the future five-year trend. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for colorectal cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe epidemiological characteristics in terms of age group, gender, and rural/urban residence. Trend surface analysis was performed to analyze the geographical distribution of colorectal cancer. Four models including curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling and joinpoint regression were applied to forecast the trends for the future five years. Results: Since 1991 the colorectal cancer mortality rate increased yearly, and our results showed that the trend would continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate in males was higher than that of females and the rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The mortality rate was relatively low for individuals less than 60 years of age, but increased dramatically afterwards. People living in the northeastern China provinces or in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for colorectal cancer than those living in middle or western China provinces. Conclusions: The steadily increasing mortality of colorectal cancer in China will become a substantial public health burden in the foreseeable future. For this increasing trend to be controlled, further efforts should concentrate on educating the general public to increase prevention and early detection by screening. More effective prevention and management strategies are needed in higher mortality areas (Eastern parts of China) and high-risk populations (60+ years old).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.15
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• pp.6729-6734
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• 2015

Background: To analyze the mortality distribution of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013, to predict the mortality in the ensuing five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, sex and age differences, urban-rural differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the ensuing five years in the future. Results: In China, the standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma increased with time from 1996, reaching the peak values of $1.45/10^5$ at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards. With males being 1.51 times higher than females, and the city had a higher rate than the rural during the past two decades. The mortality rate increased from age 40. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from middle to southern China. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma is falling. The regional disease control for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma should be focused on Guangdong province of China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men, especially after the age of 40. The mortality of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma will decrease in the next five years.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.15
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• pp.6391-6396
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• 2015

Background: To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortality distribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortality trends. Results: In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steady increase in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group. In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwest to west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country. Conclusions: The incidence rate and the mortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus, implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.14
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• pp.5829-5834
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• 2015

Objective: To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2013, forecast the future five-year trend and provide scientific evidence for prevention and management of lung cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for lung cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe epidemiological characteristics. Trend surface analysis was applied to analyze the geographical distribution of lung cancer. Four models, curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression, were performed to forecast the trend for the future. Results: Since 1991 the mortality rate of lung cancer increased yearly. The rate for males was higher than that for females and rates in urban areas were higher than in rural areas. In addition, our results showed that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate increased from age 45-50 and peaked in the group of 85 years old. Geographical analysis indicated that people living in northeast China provinces and the coastal provinces in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for lung cancer than those living in the centre or western Chinese provinces. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer has constantly increased from 1991 to 2013, and been predicted to continue in the ensuing 5 years. Further efforts should be concentrated on education of the general public to increase prevention and early detection. Much better prevention and management is needed in high mortality areas (northeastern and eastern parts of China) and high risk populations (45-50-year-olds).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.7
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• pp.3105-3112
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• 2014

Purpose: To examine breast cancer (BC) incidence trends in relation to mammographic screening and risk factor prevalence in South Australia (SA). Materials and Methods: Trends in annual BC incidence rates were calculated using direct standardisation and compared with projected incidence derived from Poisson regression analysis of pre-screening rates. Annual percentage change and change time points were estimated using Joinpoint software. Biennial mammography screening participation rates were calculated using data from BreastScreen SA. Trends in overweight/obesity, alcohol use and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use were examined using 1991-2009 Health Omnibus Survey data. Trends in total fertility were examined using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Results: BC incidence increased around the time BreastScreen commenced and then stabilised in the mid-1990s. However rates have remained higher than projected, even though the proportion and age distribution of first time screening attendees stabilised around 1998. A decrease in BC incidence was observed among women aged 50-59yrs from the late-1990's but not among older women. Obesity and alcohol use have increased steadily in all age groups, while HRT use declined sharply from the late-1990s. Conclusions: BC incidence has remained higher than projected since mammography screening began. The sustained elevation is likely to be due to lead time effects, though over-diagnosis cannot be excluded. Declining HRT use has also impacted incidence trends. Implications: Studies using individual level data, which can account for changes in risk factor prevalence and lead time effects, are required to evaluate 'over-diagnosis' due to screening.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.1409-1413
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• 2015

Background: According to increase in elderly populations, and change in lifestyle and cancer-causing behavior, the global burden of cancer is increasing. For prevention and control of disease, knowledge of population statistics of cancers and their trends is essential. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiology and trends of cancer in the province of Kerman: southeast of Iran. Materials and Methods: This analytical and cross-sectional study was carried out based on cancer registry data at the Disease Management Center of the Health Ministry from 2004 to 2009 in the province of Kerman in Iran. Common cancers were defined as the number of reported cases and standardized incidence rates. To compute the annual percentage change (APC), joinpoint 4.1.1.1 software was applied. Results: Of 10,595 registered cases, 45.3% (4802 cases) were in women and 56.7% (5,793 cases) occurred in men. The standardized incidence rates for both females and males were increasing during the six years studied. The most common cancers in both sexes during six years of studied were skin (13.4%), breast (9.35%), bladder (7.8%), stomach (7.45%), leukemia (7.05%), colorectal(5.57%), lung(4.92%), trachea(3.51%) and prostate(2.48%). Conclusions: Our findings revealed that the cancer incidence is demonstrating increasing trends in both sexes in the province of Kerman. This may be because of changes in lifestyle, increasing exposure to risk factors for cancer and increase of life expectancy. If this is the case, increasing public awareness of cancer risk factors is a high priority, together with introduction of large-scale screening techniques.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.623-627
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• 2014

Background: Esophagus cancer (EC) is among the five most common cancers in both sexes in Iran, with an incidence rate well above world average. Social rank (SR) of individuals and regions are well-known independent predictors of EC incidence. The aim of current study was to assess gender and social disparities in EC incidence across Iran's provinces through 2003-2009. Materials and Methods: Data on distribution of population at province level were obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran. Age-standardized incidence rates of EC were gathered from the National Cancer Registry. The Human Development Index (HDI) was used to assess the province social rank. Rate ratios and Kunst and Mackenbach relative indices of inequality ($RII_{KM}$) were used to assess gender and social inequalities, respectively. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated using joinpoint regression. Results: EC incidence rate increased 4.6% and 6.5% per year among females and males, respectively. There were no gender disparities in EC incidence over the study period. There were substantial social disparities in favor of better-off provinces in Iran. These social disparities were generally the same between males and females and were stable over the study period. Conclusions: The results showed an inverse association between the provinces' social rank and EC incidence rate in Iran. In addition, I found that, in contrast with international trends, women are at the same risk of EC as men in Iran. Further investigations are needed to explain these disparities in EC incidence across the provinces.

• Biomolecules & Therapeutics
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.110-118
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• 2020

Migration presents a substantial social and public health issue. However, it is unclear whether diabetes is worse among Asian migrants than natives of South Korea over time. This longitudinal study investigated the nationwide population, including 2,680,495 adults aged 20 years and older (987,214 Asian migrants and 1,693,281 natives), who received health check-ups, using the Korean National Health Insurance Service data (2009-2015). Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the annual percentage change of diabetes, and multivariable logistic regression was used to examine differences in incident type 2 diabetes between Asian migrants and natives adjusting for age, sex, economic status, body mass index, smoking status, any alcohol use, and physical activity. The age-adjusted prevalence of diabetes increased among native men (from 8.8% in 2009 to 9.7% in 2015, APC=1.64, p<0.05) compared to Asian migrant men, and the age-adjusted prevalence of diabetes increased among native women (from 6.0% in 2009 to 6.7% in 2015, APC=1.88, p<0.05) compared to Asian migrant women. In the multivariate analyses, Asian migrants were less likely to get type 2 diabetes than natives (odds ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.86) between the first and last health check-ups. However, the odds ratio for developing type 2 diabetes was 1.15 (95% CI, 1.10 to 1.20) among low-income levels compared to high-income levels, regardless of whether they were Asian migrants or natives. The results could help to establish a new strategy for prevention, treatment, and management of diabetes among the Asian population.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.2895-2899
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• 2016

Background: Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005-2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. Materials and Methods: BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. Results: BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are <50 years of age and only 9% present with stage I disease. Average age increased from 53 to 56.4 years (p=0.0001), CR (per $10^5$ women) increased from 39 (ASR: 35.2) to 55.4 (ASR: 43.4), AAPC for CR was 5.0 (p=0.001) and ASR was 3.1 (p=0.001). Rates increased from 50 years. Predicted ASpR is 174 in 50-59 years, 231 in > 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019-20. Conclusions: BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.56 no.3
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• pp.248-254
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• 2023

Objectives: Measuring the quality of care is paramount to inform policies for healthcare services. Nevertheless, little is known about the quality of primary care and acute care provided in Korea. This study investigated trends in the quality of primary care and acute care. Methods: Case-fatality rates and avoidable hospitalization rates were used as performance indicators to assess the quality of primary care and acute care. Admission data for the period 2008 to 2020 were extracted from the National Health Insurance Claims Database. Case-fatality rates and avoidable hospitalization rates were standardized by age and sex to adjust for patients' characteristics over time, and significant changes in the rates were identified by joinpoint regression. Results: The average annual percent change in age-/sex-standardized case-fatality rates for acute myocardial infarction was -2.3% (95% confidence interval, -4.6 to 0.0). For hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke, the age-/sex-standardized case-fatality rates were 21.8% and 5.9%, respectively in 2020; these rates decreased since 2008 (27.1 and 8.7%, respectively). The average annual percent change in age-/sex-standardized avoidable hospitalization rates ranged from -9.4% to -3.0%, with statistically significant changes between 2008 and 2020. In 2020, the avoidable hospitalization rates decreased considerably compared with the 2019 rate because of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Conclusions: The avoidable hospitalization rates and case-fatality rates decreased overall during the past decade, but they were relatively high compared with other countries. Strengthening primary care is an essential requirement to improve patient health outcomes in the rapidly aging Korean population.