• Title/Summary/Keyword: J-Estimation

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Statistical models from weigh-in-motion data

  • Chan, Tommy H.T.;Miao, T.J.;Ashebo, Demeke B.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.85-110
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    • 2005
  • This paper aims at formulating various statistical models for the study of a ten year Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) data collected from various WIM stations in Hong Kong. In order to study the bridge live load model it is important to determine the mathematical distributions of different load affecting parameters such as gross vehicle weights, axle weights, axle spacings, average daily number of trucks etc. Each of the above parameters is analyzed by various stochastic processes in order to obtain the mathematical distributions and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method is adopted to calculate the statistical parameters, expected values and standard deviations from the given samples of data. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) method of approach is used to check the suitability of the statistical model selected for the particular parameter and the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the distributions of maximum value stochastic processes of a series of given stochastic processes. Using the statistical analysis approach the maximum value of gross vehicle weight and axle weight in bridge design life has been determined and the distribution functions of these parameters are obtained under both free-flowing traffic and dense traffic status. The maximum value of bending moments and shears for wide range of simple spans are obtained by extrapolation. It has been observed that the obtained maximum values of the gross vehicle weight and axle weight from this study are very close to their legal limitations of Hong Kong which are 42 tonnes for gross weight and 10 tonnes for axle weight.

A Study on the Estimation of Economic Depreciation Rate on Industrial Property Using Equal Life Group Procedure (ELG 방법을 활용한 제조설비의 경제적 감가상각률 추정방안)

  • Oh, H.S.;Kwon, S.H.;Sung, I.S.;Cho, J.H.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.53-57
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    • 2013
  • Several different depreciation systems may be used for group depreciation. The vintage group procedure treats the same type of property placed in service during the same year as a distinct group for depreciation purposes; therefore an estimate of the probable average service life and net salvage ratio(s) of each individual vintage is necessary. The vintage group procedure calculates an accrual rate for each vintage and the accrual rate for an account for specific calendar year is the weighted average vintage accrual rate for that calendar year. A further refinement would be to divide each vintage into groups such that all of the dollars in a group have the same estimated life-an equal life group (ELG). Then each ELG is depreciated over its estimated life. The effect is to recover each dollar over the estimated number of years it is in service. Each vintage is divided into several equal life groups (ELGs) such that all the property in a specific ELG has the same estimated life. The accrual rate for each ELG is based on the estimated life of that ELG. The vintage accrual rate for a specific year is the weighted average ELG accrual rate for that calendar year. In this paper, we illustrate the calculations of vintage accrual rates for each of the calendar years by the ELG depreciation systems.

Hippuric Acid Levels in Paint Workers at Steel Furniture Manufacturers in Thailand

  • Decharat, Somsiri
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.227-233
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    • 2014
  • Background: The aims of this study were to determine hippuric acid levels in urine samples, airborne toluene levels, acute and chronic neurological symptoms, and to describe any correlation between urinary hippuric acid and airborne toluene. Methods: The hippuric acid concentration in the urine of 87 paint workers exposed to toluene at work (exposed group), and 87 nonexposed people (control group) was studied. Study participants were selected from similar factories in the same region. Urine samples were collected at the end of a shift and analyzed for hippuric acid by high performance liquid chromatography. Air samples for the estimation of toluene exposure were collected with diffusive personal samplers and the toluene quantified using gas-liquid chromatography. The two groups were also interviewed and observed about their work practices and health. Results: The median of the 87 airborne toluene levels was 55 ppm (range, 12-198 ppm). The median urinary hippuric acid level was 800 mg/g creatinine (range, 90-2547 mg/g creatinine). A statistically significant positive correlation was found between airborne toluene exposure and urine hippuric acid levels (r = 0.548, p < 0.01). Workers with acute symptoms had significantly higher hippuric acid levels than those who did not (p < 0.05). It was concluded that there was a significant correlation between toluene exposure, hippuric acid levels, and health (p < 0.001). Conclusion: There appears to be a significant correlation between workers exposure to toluene at work, their urine hippuric acid levels, and resulting symptoms of poor health. Improvements in working conditions and occupational health education are required at these workplaces. There was good correlation between urinary hippuric acid and airborne toluene levels.

Application of Meteorological Drought Index using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) Based on Global Satellite-Assisted Precipitation Products in Korea (위성기반 Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS)를 활용한 한반도 지역의 기상학적 가뭄지수 적용)

  • Mun, Young-Sik;Nam, Won-Ho;Jeon, Min-Gi;Kim, Taegon;Hong, Eun-Mi;Hayes, Michael J.;Tsegaye, Tadesse
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.61 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2019
  • Remote sensing products have long been used to monitor and forecast natural disasters. Satellite-derived rainfall products are becoming more accurate as space and time resolution improve, and are widely used in areas where measurement is difficult because of the periodic accumulation of images in large areas. In the case of North Korea, there is a limit to the estimation of precipitation for unmeasured areas due to the limited accessibility and quality of statistical data. CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations) is global satellite-derived rainfall data of 0.05 degree grid resolution. It has been available since 1981 from USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development), NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). This study evaluates the applicability of CHIRPS rainfall products for South Korea and North Korea by comparing CHIRPS data with ground observation data, and analyzing temporal and spatial drought trends using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a meteorological drought index available through CHIRPS. The results indicate that the data set performed well in assessing drought years (1994, 2000, 2015 and 2017). Overall, this study concludes that CHIRPS is a valuable tool for using data to estimate precipitation and drought monitoring in Korea.

Estimation and Classification of Flow Regimes for South Korean Streams and River

  • Park, Kyug Seo;Choi, Ji-Woong;Park, Chan-Seo;An, Kwang-Guk;Wiley, Michael J.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.106-106
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    • 2015
  • The information of flow regimes continues to be norm in water resource and watershed management, in that stream flow regime is a crucial factor influencing water quality, geomorphology, and the community structure of stream biota. The objectives of this study were to estimate Korean stream flows from landscape variables, classify stream flow gages using hydraulic characteristics, and then apply these methods to ungaged biological monitoring sites for effective ecological assessment. Here I used a linear modeling approach (MLR, PCA, and PCR) to describe and predict seasonal flow statistics from landscape variables. MLR models were successfully built for a range of exceedance discharges and time frames (annual, January, May, July, and October), and these models explained a high degree of the observed variation with r squares ranging from 0.555 (Q95 in January) to 0.899 (Q05 in July). In validation testing, predicted and observed exceedance discharges were all significantly correlated (p<0.01) and for most models no significant difference was found between predicted and observed values (Paired samples T-test; p>0.05). I classified Korean stream flow regimes with respect to hydraulic and hydrologic regime into four categories: flashier and higher-powered (F-HP), flashier and lower-powered (F-LP), more stable and higher-powered (S-HP), and more stable and lower-powered (S-LP). These four categories of Korean streams were related to with the characteristics of environmental variables, such as catchment size, site slope, stream order, and land use patterns. I then applied the models at 684 ungaged biological sampling sites used in the National Aquatic Ecological Monitoring Program in order to classify them with respect to basic hydrologic characteristics and similarity to the government's array of hydrologic gauging stations. Flashier-lower powered sites appeared to be relatively over-represented and more stable-higher powered sites under-represented in the bioassessment data sets.

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Estimation of ship operational efficiency from AIS data using big data technology

  • Kim, Seong-Hoon;Roh, Myung-Il;Oh, Min-Jae;Park, Sung-Woo;Kim, In-Il
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.440-454
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    • 2020
  • To prevent pollution from ships, the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) is a mandatory guideline for all new ships. The Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) has also been applied by MARPOL to all existing ships. SEEMP provides the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) for monitoring the operational efficiency of a ship. By monitoring the EEOI, the shipowner or operator can establish strategic plans, such as routing, hull cleaning, decommissioning, new building, etc. The key parameter in calculating EEOI is Fuel Oil Consumption (FOC). It can be measured on board while a ship is operating. This means that only the shipowner or operator can calculate the EEOI of their own ships. If the EEOI can be calculated without the actual FOC, however, then the other stakeholders, such as the shipbuilding company and Class, or others who don't have the measured FOC, can check how efficiently their ships are operating compared to other ships. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the EEOI without requiring the actual FOC. The Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, ship static data, and environment data that can be publicly obtained are used to calculate the EEOI. Since the public data are of large capacity, big data technologies, specifically Hadoop and Spark, are used. We verify the proposed method using actual data, and the result shows that the proposed method can estimate EEOI from public data without actual FOC.

Group Contribution Method and Support Vector Regression based Model for Predicting Physical Properties of Aromatic Compounds (Group Contribution Method 및 Support Vector Regression 기반 모델을 이용한 방향족 화합물 물성치 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Ha Yeong;Oh, Chang Bo;Won, Yong Sun;Liu, J. Jay;Lee, Chang Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2021
  • To simulate a process model in the field of chemical engineering, it is very important to identify the physical properties of novel materials as well as existing materials. However, it is difficult to measure the physical properties throughout a set of experiments due to the potential risk and cost. To address this, this study aims to develop a property prediction model based on the group contribution method for aromatic chemical compounds including benzene rings. The benzene rings of aromatic materials have a significant impact on their physical properties. To establish the prediction model, 42 important functional groups that determine the physical properties are considered, and the total numbers of functional groups on 147 aromatic chemical compounds are counted to prepare a dataset. Support vector regression is employed to prepare a prediction model to handle sparse and high-dimensional data. To verify the efficacy of this study, the results of this study are compared with those of previous studies. Despite the different datasets in the previous studies, the comparison indicated the enhanced performance in this study. Moreover, there are few reports on predicting the physical properties of aromatic compounds. This study can provide an effective method to estimate the physical properties of unknown chemical compounds and contribute toward reducing the experimental efforts for measuring physical properties.

A study on collision strength assessment of a jack-up rig with attendant vessel

  • Ma, Kuk Yeol;Kim, Jeong Hwan;Park, Joo Shin;Lee, Jae Myung;Seo, Jung Kwan
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.241-257
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    • 2020
  • The rapid proliferation of oil/gas drilling and wind turbine installations with jack-up rig-formed structures increases structural safety requirements, due to the greater risks of operational collisions during use of these structures. Therefore, current industrial practices and regulations have tended to increase the required accidental collision design loads (impact energies) for jack-up rigs. However, the existing simplified design approach tends to be limited to the design and prediction of local members due to the difficulty in applying the increased uniform impact energy to a brace member without regard for the member's position. It is therefore necessary to define accidental load estimation in terms of a reasonable collision scenario and its application to the structural response analysis. We found by a collision probabilistic approach that the kinetic energy ranged from a minimum of 9 MJ to a maximum 1049 MJ. Only 6% of these values are less than the 35 MJ recommendation of DNV-GL (2013). This study assumed and applied a representative design load of 196.2 MN for an impact load of 20,000 tons. Based on this design load, the detailed design of a leg structure was numerically verified via an FE analysis comprising three categories: linear analysis, buckling analysis and progressive collapse analysis. Based on the numerical results from this analysis, it was possible to predict the collapse mode and position of each member in relation to the collision load. This study provided a collision strength assessment between attendant vessels and a jack-up rig based on probabilistic collision scenarios and nonlinear structural analysis. The numerical results of this study also afforded reasonable evaluation criteria and specific evaluation procedures.

Icevaning control of an Arctic offshore vessel and its experimental validation

  • Kim, Young-Shik;Kim, Jinwhan
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.208-222
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    • 2021
  • Managing with the presence of sea ice is the primary challenge in the operation of floating platforms in the Arctic region. It is widely accepted that offshore structures operating in Arctic conditions need station-keeping methods as well as ice management by icebreakers. Dynamic Positioning (DP) is one of the station-keeping methods that can provide mobility and flexibility in marine operations. The presence of sea ice generates complex external forces and moments acting on the vessel, which need to be counteracted by the DP system. In this paper, an icevaning control algorithm is proposed that enables Arctic offshore vessels to perform DP operations. The proposed icevaning control enables each vessel to be oriented toward the direction of the mean environmental force induced by ice drifting so as to improve the operational safety and reduce the overall thruster power consumption by having minimum external disturbances naturally. A mathematical model of an Arctic offshore vessel is summarized for the development of the new icevaning control algorithm. To determine the icevaning action of the Arctic offshore vessel without any measurements and estimation of ice conditions including ice drift, task and null space are defined in the vessel model, and the control law is formulated in the task space. A backstepping technique is utilized to handle the nonlinearity of the Arctic offshore vessel's dynamic model, and the Lyapunov stability theory is applied to guarantee the stability of the proposed icevaning control algorithm. Experiments are conducted in the ice tank of the Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Assessment of the effect of biofilm on the ship hydrodynamic performance by performance prediction method

  • Farkas, Andrea;Degiuli, Nastia;Martic, Ivana
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.102-114
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    • 2021
  • Biofouling represents an important problem in the shipping industry since it causes the increase in surface roughness. The most of ships in the current world fleet do not have good coating condition which represents an important problem due to strict rules regarding ship energy efficiency. Therefore, the importance of the control and management of the hull and propeller fouling is highlighted by the International Maritime Organization and the maintenance schedule optimization became valuable energy saving measure. For adequate implementation of this measure, the accurate prediction of the effects of biofouling on the hydrodynamic characteristics is required. Although computational fluid dynamics approach, based on the modified wall function approach, has imposed itself as one of the most promising tools for this prediction, it requires significant computational time. However, during the maintenance schedule optimization, it is important to rapidly predict the effect of biofouling on the ship hydrodynamic performance. In this paper, the effect of biofilm on the ship hydrodynamic performance is studied using the proposed performance prediction method for three merchant ships. The applicability of this method in the assessment of the effect of biofilm on the ship hydrodynamic performance is demonstrated by comparison of the obtained results using the proposed performance prediction method and computational fluid dynamics approach. The comparison has shown that the highest relative deviation is lower than 4.2% for all propulsion characteristics, lower than 1.5% for propeller rotation rate and lower than 5.2% for delivered power. Thus, a practical tool for the estimation of the effect of biofouling with lower fouling severity on the ship hydrodynamic performance is developed.