• Title/Summary/Keyword: Interval Estimation

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Retrieval of High Resolution Surface Net Radiation for Urban Area Using Satellite and CFD Model Data Fusion (위성 및 CFD모델 자료의 융합을 통한 도시지역에서의 고해상도 지표 순복사 산출)

  • Kim, Honghee;Lee, Darae;Choi, Sungwon;Jin, Donghyun;Her, Morang;Kim, Jajin;Hong, Jinkyu;Hong, Je-Woo;Lee, Keunmin;Han, Kyung-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.2_1
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    • pp.295-300
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    • 2018
  • Net radiation is the total amount of radiation energy used as a heat flux for the Earth's energy cycle, and net radiation from the surface is an important factor in areas such as hydrology, climate, meteorological studies and agriculture. It is very important to monitoring the net radiation through remote sensing to be able to understand the trend of heat island and urbanization phenomenon. However, net radiation estimation using only remote sensing data is generally causes difference in accuracy depending on cloud. Therefore, in this paper, we retrieved and monitored high resolution surface net radiation at 1 hour interval in Eunpyeong New Town where urbanization using Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS), Landsat-8 satellite and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model data reflecting the difference in building height. We compared the observed and estimated net radiation at the flux tower. As a result, estimated net radiation was similar trend to the observed net radiation as a whole and it had the accuracy of RMSE $54.29Wm^{-2}$ and Bias $27.42Wm^{-2}$. In addition, the calculated net radiation showed well the meteorological conditions such as precipitation, and showed the characteristics of net radiation for the vegetation and artificial area in the spatial distribution.

Estimation of the Accuracy of Genomic Breeding Value in Hanwoo (Korean Cattle) (한우의 유전체 육종가의 정확도 추정)

  • Lee, Seung Soo;Lee, Seung Hwan;Choi, Tae Jeong;Choy, Yun Ho;Cho, Kwang Hyun;Choi, You Lim;Cho, Yong Min;Kim, Nae Soo;Lee, Jung Jae
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to estimate the Genomic Estimated Breeding Value (GEBV) using Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) method in Hanwoo (Korean native cattle) population. The result is expected to adapt genomic selection onto the national Hanwoo evaluation system. Carcass weight (CW), eye muscle area (EMA), backfat thickness (BT), and marbling score (MS) were investigated in 552 Hanwoo progeny-tested steers at Livestock Improvement Main Center. Animals were genotyped with Illumina BovineHD BeadChip (777K SNPs). For statistical analysis, Genetic Relationship Matrix (GRM) was formulated on the basis of genotypes and the accuracy of GEBV was estimated with 10-fold Cross-validation method. The accuracies estimated with cross-validation method were between 0.915~0.957. In 534 progeny-tested steers, the maximum difference of GEBV accuracy compared to conventional EBV for CW, EMA, BT, and MS traits were 9.56%, 5.78%, 5.78%, and 4.18% respectively. In 3,674 pedigree traced bulls, maximum increased difference of GEBV for CW, EMA, BT, and MS traits were increased as 13.54%, 6.50%, 6.50%, and 4.31% respectively. This showed that the implementation of genomic pre-selection for candidate calves to test on meat production traits could improve the genetic gain by increasing accuracy and reducing generation interval in Hanwoo genetic evaluation system to select proven bulls.

Software Reliability Growth Modeling in the Testing Phase with an Outlier Stage (하나의 이상구간을 가지는 테스팅 단계에서의 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모형화)

  • Park, Man-Gon;Jung, Eun-Yi
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.5 no.10
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    • pp.2575-2583
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    • 1998
  • The productionof the highly relible softwae systems and theirs performance evaluation hae become important interests in the software industry. The software evaluation has been mainly carried out in ternns of both reliability and performance of software system. Software reliability is the probability that no software error occurs for a fixed time interval during software testing phase. These theoretical software reliability models are sometimes unsuitable for the practical testing phase in which a software error at a certain testing stage occurs by causes of the imperfect debugging, abnornal software correction, and so on. Such a certatin software testing stage needs to be considered as an outlying stage. And we can assume that the software reliability does not improve by means of muisance factor in this outlying testing stage. In this paper, we discuss Bavesian software reliability growth modeling and estimation procedure in the presence of an imidentitied outlying software testing stage by the modification of Jehnski Moranda. Also we derive the Bayes estimaters of the software reliability panmeters by the assumption of prior information under the squared error los function. In addition, we evaluate the proposed software reliability growth model with an unidentified outlying stage in an exchangeable model according to the values of nuisance paramether using the accuracy, bias, trend, noise metries as the quantilative evaluation criteria through the compater simulation.

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A Study to Validate the Pretest Probability of Malignancy in Solitary Pulmonary Nodule (사전검사를 통한 고립성 폐결절 환자에서의 악성 확률 타당성에 대한 연구)

  • Jang, Joo Hyun;Park, Sung Hoon;Choi, Jeong Hee;Lee, Chang Youl;Hwang, Yong Il;Shin, Tae Rim;Park, Yong Bum;Lee, Jae Young;Jang, Seung Hun;Kim, Cheol Hong;Park, Sang Myeon;Kim, Dong Gyu;Lee, Myung Goo;Hyun, In Gyu;Jung, Ki Suck
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.67 no.2
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2009
  • Background: Solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) are encountered incidentally in 0.2% of patients who undergo chest X-ray or chest CT. Although SPN has malignant potential, it cannot be treated surgically by biopsy in all patients. The first stage is to determine if patients with SPN require periodic observation and biopsy or resection. An important early step in the management of patients with SPN is to estimate the clinical pretest probability of a malignancy. In every patient with SPN, it is recommended that clinicians estimate the pretest probability of a malignancy either qualitatively using clinical judgment or quantitatively using a validated model. This study examined whether Bayesian analysis or multiple logistic regression analysis is more predictive of the probability of a malignancy in SPN. Methods: From January 2005 to December 2008, this study enrolled 63 participants with SPN at the Kangnam Sacred Hospital. The accuracy of Bayesian analysis and Bayesian analysis with a FDG-PET scan, and Multiple logistic regression analysis was compared retrospectively. The accurate probability of a malignancy in a patient was compared by taking the chest CT and pathology of SPN patients with <30 mm at CXR incidentally. Results: From those participated in study, 27 people (42.9%) were classified as having a malignancy, and 36 people were benign. The result of the malignant estimation by Bayesian analysis was 0.779 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.657 to 0.874). Using Multiple logistic regression analysis, the result was 0.684 (95% CI, 0.555 to 0.796). This suggests that Bayesian analysis provides a more accurate examination than multiple logistic regression analysis. Conclusion: Bayesian analysis is better than multiple logistic regression analysis in predicting the probability of a malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules but the difference was not statistically significant.

Norm-referenced criteria for strength of the elbow joint for the korean high school baseball players using the isokinetic equipment: (Focusing on seoul and gyeonggi-do) (등속성 장비를 이용하여 한국고교야구선수 주관절 근력 평가기준치 설정: (서울 및 경기도 중심으로))

  • Kim, Su-Hyun;Lee, Jin-Wook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.442-447
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to establish norm-referenced criteria for the isokinetic strength of the elbow joint in Korean high school baseball players. Two hundred and one high school baseball players participated in this study, none of whom had any medical problem with their upper limbs. The elbow flexion/extension test was conducted four times at a speed of $60^{\circ}/sec$. The HUMAC NORM (CSMI, USA) system was used to obtain the values of the peak torque and peak torque per body weight. The results were presented as norm-referenced criterion valuesusing the 5-point scale of Cajori which consists of five stages (6.06%, 24.17%, 38.30%, 24.17%, and 6.06%). In the results of this study, the peak torques of the elbow (flexor and extensor?) at an angular velocity of $60^{\circ}/sec$ were $37.88{\pm}8.14Nm$ and $44.59{\pm}11.79Nm$, and the peak torque per body weight of the elbow (flexor and extensor?) were $50.06{\pm}8.66Nm$ and $58.28{\pm}12.84Nm$, respectively. The reference values of the peak torque and peak torque per body weight of the elbow flexor and extensor were setat an angular velocity of $60^{\circ}/sec$. On the basis of the results analyzed in this study, the following conclusions were drawn. There is a lack of proper studies on the elbow joint strength, even though the most common injury in baseball players occurs in the elbow joint. Therefore, we need to establish a standard muscle strength in order to prevent elbow joint injuries and improve their performance. The criteria for the peak torque and peak torque per body weight established here in will provide useful information for high school baseball players, baseball coaches, athletic trainers and sports injury rehabilitation specialists in injury recovery and return to rehabilitation, which can beutilized as objective clinical assessment data.

Performance effectiveness of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatricrisk of mortality III (PRISM III) in pediatric patients with intensive care in single institution: Retrospective study (단일 병원에서 소아 중환자의 예후인자 예측을 위한 PIM2 (pediatric index of mortality 2)와 PRIMS III (pediatric risk of mortality)의 유효성 평가 - 후향적 조사 -)

  • Hwang, Hui Seung;Lee, Na Young;Han, Seung Beom;Kwak, Ga Young;Lee, Soo Young;Chung, Seung Yun;Kang, Jin Han;Jeong, Dae Chul
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.11
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    • pp.1158-1164
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : To investigate the discriminative ability of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatric risk of mortality III (PRISM III) in predicting mortality in children admitted into the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods : We retrospectively analyzed variables of PIM2 and PRISM III based on medical records with children cared for in a single hospital ICU from January 2003 to December 2007. Exclusions were children who died within 2 h of admission into ICU or hopeless discharge. We used Students t test and ANOVA for general characteristics and for correlation between survivors and non-survivors for variables of PIM2 and PRISM III. In addition, we performed multiple logistic regression analysis for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) for discrimination, and calculated standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for estimation of prediction. Results : We collected 193 medical records but analyzed 190 events because three children died within 2 h of ICU admission. The variables of PIM2 correlated with survival, except for the presence of post-procedure and low risk. In PRISM III, there was a significant correlation for cardiovascular/neurologic signs, arterial blood gas analysis but not for biochemical and hematologic data. Discriminatory performance by ROC showed an area under the curve 0.858 (95% confidence interval; 0.779-0.938) for PIM2, 0.798 (95% CI; 0.686-0.891) for PRISM III, respectively. Further, SMR was calculated approximately as 1 for the 2 systems, and multiple logistic regression analysis showed ${\chi}^2(13)=14.986$, P=0.308 for PIM2, ${\chi}^2(13)=12.899$, P=0.456 for PRISM III in Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit. However, PIM2 was significant for PRISM III in the likelihood ratio test (${\chi}^2(4)=55.3$, P<0.01). Conclusion : We identified two acceptable scoring systems (PRISM III, PIM2) for the prediction of mortality in children admitted into the ICU. PIM2 was more accurate and had a better fit than PRISM III on the model tested.

Aggressive behavior of Male Rats following Hippocampal Ablation (뇌 해마를 떼어버린 흰쥐의 공격적 행동)

  • Park, Rho-Soon;Kim, Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.169-175
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    • 1967
  • An experiment was designed to see if the hippocampus exerts any influence upon the aggressive behavior of male rats. Fighting between rats was observed for the estimation of aggressiveness. Seventeen rats in which the hippocampus was almost totally removed through a small hole with a diameter around 3 mm made in the neocortex at the boundary between the parietal and occipital lobes (hippocampal group), 8 rats with similar neocortical damage alone (operated control group), and 17 normal control rats (normal group) were prepared and subjected to the experiment 3 months after the operation. Applying electric shock of short duration to the feet in a box with grid floor, a fight was provoked between an animal belonging to the hippocampal group and one belonging to the nor-mal group, between a rat of the hippocampal group and one of the operated control group, and also between a rat of the operated control group and one of the normal group. Three observers judged the performance of each animal independently and described it as winning, defeated, tied, or non-fighting. Fifteen shocked trials were administered to each pair of animals with around 2 minutes' interval between each trial. An animal received a 'judging score' of 3 when it won more frequently than was defeated, a judging score of 2 when it won as frequently as was defeated, when all fights were tied, or when no fighting occurred, while it received a judging score of 1 when it won less frequently than was defeated. Group differences in performances were analyzed in terms of judging score using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for one sample. The results obtained were as follows: 1. In the fights between the hippocampal and the normal groups, the hippocampal animals made significantly better judging scores than the normal animals did (Table 1). 2. There was no significant difference between the hippocampal and the operated control group as to the judging scores they made in the course of fights between the two groups. However, the hippocampal animals tended to dominate over the operated control group as judged by comparing the total 'winning' of the former (30) to that of the latter (14) (Table 2). 3. The total judging score made by the operated control group in the course of the fights against the normal group was not significantly superior to that made by the normal group (Table 3). It was inferred from the above results that, though inconspicuous, the hippocampus tended to exert an inhibitory influence upon the aggressive behavior of male rats.

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Reproductive Traits in Yorkshire (요크셔종의 번식형질에 대한 유전모수 추정)

  • Song, Kwang-Lim;Kim, Byeong-Woo;Roh, Seung-Hee;Sun, Du-Won;Kim, Hyo-Sun;Lee, Deuk-Hwan;Jeon, Jin-Tae;Lee, Jung-Gyu
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to estimate genetic parameters for reproductive traits using multivariate animal models in Yorkshire breed. For the study, 4,989 records for litter traits collected between the year 2001 and 2005 from Yorkshire pigs in K GGP were used. The effects of environmental factors such as farrowing year, parity, weaning to estrus interval (WEI), and suckling period were statistically significant (p<0.05), but farrowing season was not significant, for reproductive traits. The estimates genetic correlations and phenotypic correlations in total number of born and number of suckling, was shown to highly correlated. The genetic correlations were higher than phenotypic correlation. The estimates of heritabilities for reproductive traits, considering permanent environment effects (PE) were much lower than those obtained when permanent environment effects were not considered (NPE) in the model. The estimates of heritabilities were 0.240 and 0.076 for total number of born and 0.187 and 0.096 for number of suckling in NPE, and PE, respectively. These results itivcate that PE should be considered in the statistical mode to estimate more acco ate breeding values.

Estimation of Paddy Rice Growth Parameters Using L, C, X-bands Polarimetric Scatterometer (L, C, X-밴드 다편파 레이더 산란계를 이용한 논 벼 생육인자 추정)

  • Kim, Yi-Hyun;Hong, Suk-Young;Lee, Hoon-Yol
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study was to measure backscattering coefficients of paddy rice using a L-, C-, and X-band scatterometer system with full polarization and various angles during the rice growth period and to relate backscattering coefficients to rice growth parameters. Radar backscattering measurements of paddy rice field using multifrequency (L, C, and X) and full polarization were conducted at an experimental field located in National Academy of Agricultural Science (NAAS), Suwon, Korea. The scatterometer system consists of dual-polarimetric square horn antennas, HP8720D vector network analyzer ($20\;MHz{\sim}20\;GHz$), RF cables, and a personal computer that controls frequency, polarization and data storage. The backscattering coefficients were calculated by applying radar equation for the measured at incidence angles between $20^{\circ}$ and $60^{\circ}$ with $5^{\circ}$ interval for four polarization (HH, VV, HV, VH), respectively. We measured the temporal variations of backscattering coefficients of the rice crop at L-, C-, X-band during a rice growth period. In three bands, VV-polarized backscattering coefficients were higher than hh-polarized backscattering coefficients during rooting stage (mid-June) and HH-polarized backscattering coefficients were higher than VV-, HV/VH-polarized backscattering coefficients after panicle initiation stage (mid-July). Cross polarized backscattering coefficients in X-band increased towards the heading stage (mid-Aug) and thereafter saturated, again increased near the harvesting season. Backscattering coefficients of range at X-band were lower than that of L-, C-band. HH-, VV-polarized ${\sigma}^{\circ}$ steadily increased toward panicle initiation stage and thereafter decreased, and again increased near the harvesting season. We plotted the relationship between backscattering coefficients with L-, C-, X-band and rice growth parameters. Biomass was correlated with L-band hh-polarization at a large incident angle. LAI (Leaf Area Index) was highly correlated with C-band HH- and cross-polarizations. Grain weight was correlated with backscattering coefficients of X-band VV-polarization at a large incidence angle. X-band was sensitive to grain maturity during the post heading stage.

Estimation of Surface fCO2 in the Southwest East Sea using Machine Learning Techniques (기계학습법을 이용한 동해 남서부해역의 표층 이산화탄소분압(fCO2) 추정)

  • HAHM, DOSHIK;PARK, SOYEONA;CHOI, SANG-HWA;KANG, DONG-JIN;RHO, TAEKEUN;LEE, TONGSUP
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.375-388
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    • 2019
  • Accurate evaluation of sea-to-air $CO_2$ flux and its variability is crucial information to the understanding of global carbon cycle and the prediction of atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration. $fCO_2$ observations are sparse in space and time in the East Sea. In this study, we derived high resolution time series of surface $fCO_2$ values in the southwest East Sea, by feeding sea surface temperature (SST), salinity (SSS), chlorophyll-a (CHL), and mixed layer depth (MLD) values, from either satellite-observations or numerical model outputs, to three machine learning models. The root mean square error of the best performing model, a Random Forest (RF) model, was $7.1{\mu}atm$. Important parameters in predicting $fCO_2$ in the RF model were SST and SSS along with time information; CHL and MLD were much less important than the other parameters. The net $CO_2$ flux in the southwest East Sea, calculated from the $fCO_2$ predicted by the RF model, was $-0.76{\pm}1.15mol\;m^{-2}yr^{-1}$, close to the lower bound of the previous estimates in the range of $-0.66{\sim}-2.47mol\;m^{-2}yr^{-1}$. The time series of $fCO_2$ predicted by the RF model showed a significant variation even in a short time interval of a week. For accurate evaluation of the $CO_2$ flux in the Ulleung Basin, it is necessary to conduct high resolution in situ observations in spring when $fCO_2$ changes rapidly.