• 유통과학연구
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.59-71
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• 2014

Purpose - In recent years, many firms have attempted various approaches to cope with the continual increase of aviation transportation. The previous research into freight charge forecasting models has focused on regression analyses using a few influence factors to calculate the future price. However, these approaches have limitations that make them difficult to apply into practice: They cannot respond promptly to small price changes and their predictive power is relatively low. Therefore, the current study proposes a freight charge-forecasting model using time series data instead a regression approach. The main purposes of this study can thus be summarized as follows. First, a proper model for freight charge using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which is mainly used for time series forecast, is presented. Second, a modified ARIMA model for freight charge prediction and the standard process of determining freight charge based on the model is presented. Third, a straightforward freight charge prediction model for practitioners to apply and utilize is presented. Research design, data, and methodology - To develop a new freight charge model, this study proposes the ARIMAC(p,q) model, which applies time difference constantly to address the correlation coefficient (autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function) problem as it appears in the ARIMA(p,q) model and materialize an error-adjusted ARIMAC(p,q). Cargo Account Settlement Systems (CASS) data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are used to predict the air freight charge. In the modeling, freight charge data for 72 months (from January 2006 to December 2011) are used for the training set, and a prediction interval of 23 months (from January 2012 to November 2013) is used for the validation set. The freight charge from November 2012 to November 2013 is predicted for three routes - Los Angeles, Miami, and Vienna - and the accuracy of the prediction interval is analyzed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results - The result of the proposed model shows better accuracy of prediction because the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 10% and the MAPE of ARIMAC is 11.2% for the L.A. route. For the Miami route, the proposed model also shows slightly better accuracy in that the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 3.5%, while that of ARIMAC is 3.7%. However, for the Vienna route, the accuracy of ARIMAC is better because the MAPE of ARIMAC is 14.5% and the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 15.7%. Conclusions - The accuracy of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model appears better when a route's freight charge variance is large, and the accuracy of ARIMA is better when the freight charge variance is small or has a trend of ascent or descent. From the results, it can be concluded that the ARIMAC model, which uses moving averages, has less predictive power for small price changes, while the error-adjusted ARIMAC model, which uses error correction, has the advantage of being able to respond to price changes quickly.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.45-55
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• 2018

PURPOSES : This study aims to survey and analyze the status of the design and completion documents output delivery system in public construction projects in order to assess the problems of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT)'s electronic delivery system, with a focus on roads and rivers, and to offer improvement measures. METHODS : This study first surveys and analyzes laws and existing study trends with regard to the design and completion documents output delivery system in public construction projects. It further analyzes the status of the output delivery system in public construction projects, including roads, rivers, expressways, water resources, and railroads. In addition, a comparative analysis of the current electronic delivery system of MOLIT and Korea Expressway Corporation in the road field is conducted, and the problems and improvement measures for MOLIT's electronic output delivery system are presented. This study seeks to analyze problems and prepare improvement measures with regard to road and river public construction projects, as ordered by MOLIT's five regional offices. RESULTS : This study sought to prepare the electronic output delivery system with regard to public construction projects and present the analysis of its major problems and improvement measures in four categories: "the preparation of electronic design documents output delivery system improvement measures including inspection and delivery," "preparation of guidelines, systems, etc., concerning electronic design documents," "preparation of improvement measures for the construction project management system and electronic design document support tools", and "linking of MOLIT's electronic output delivery system with relevant agencies and the expansion thereof to local governments." CONCLUSIONS : This study analyzed the current status and problems of the MOLIT's electronic output delivery system in the field of road and river construction projects, and presented corresponding improvement measures. This study is expected to address the problems of the MOLIT's electronic output delivery system, and to provide the foundation for the preparation of an efficient electronic output delivery system for design and completion documents. In addition, this study is expected to boost the quality and utilization of the electronic design documents output, and to exchange, share, and link construction information among relevant agencies so as to prepare the foundation for sharing construction information.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제18권9호
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• pp.971-981
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• 2009

An objective of this study is as follows: 1) performing sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of RMA2 and RMA4 models for the West-Nakdong River, 2) drawing up alternatives of gates-operation for water-quality enhancement, and 3) quantitative evaluation of methodology of 'flow-restoration by gates-operation' among 'Comprehensive Plan Improving Water-Quality in the West-Nakdong River(WNR)' with the target water-quality(BOD at Nakbon-N point: below 4.3 mg/L). The parameters for the RMA2 (depth-averaged two-dimensional flow model) and RMA4 (depth-averaged two-dimensional water-quality model) were determined by sensitivity analysis. Result of parameter estimation for RMA2 and RMA4 models is $1,000\;Pa{\cdot}s$ of the eddy viscosity, 20 of the Peclet number, 0.025 of the Manning coefficient, and $1.0\;m^2/s$ of the diffusion coefficient. We have evaluated the effects of water-quality enhancement of the selected alternatives by numerical simulation technique with the models under the steady-state flow condition and the time-variant transport condition. Because of no-resuspension from river bottom and considering BOD as conservative matter, these simulation results slightly differ from real phenomena. In the case of $50\;m^3/s$ of Daejeo-gate inflow, two-dimensional flow pn results result represents that small velocity occurs in the Pyungkang Stream and no flow in the Maekdo River. In the WNR, there occurs the most rapid flow near timhae-bridge. In the WNR, changes of water-quality for the four selected simulation cases(6, 10, 30, $50\;m^3/s$ of the Daejeo-gate inflow) were predicted. Since the Daejeo-Gate and the Noksan-Gate can be opened up to 7 days, it would be found that sustainable inflow of $30\;m^3/s$ at the Daejeo-gate makes BOD in the WNR to be under the target of water-quality.

• 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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• 제8권
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• pp.71-84
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• 1996

최근 남북관계는 대북 쌀 지원 문제와 관련한 북한 측의 태도와 이후의 무장공비 남파 등으로 악화되어 있다. 북한 측을 대화창구로 유도하고 남북 경협 등을 통하여 남북한 관계를 개선하려는 우리측의 노력은 이무런 성과를 거두고 있지 못한 것 같다. 남북한 항공판계의 진전도 전반적인 남북관계에서만이 고려가 가능한 실정으로 있다. 최근 언론매체를 통하여 북한당국이 미국 항공사(델타, 노스웨스트)의 평양비행정보구역 통과 우리 영공으로의 비행을 허가하였으며, 이에 대하여 우리측은 우선 남북한 관제당국간 관제협정이 체결되고, 동 항로를 이용한 비행은 우리 항공사를 포함한 모든 항공사에 비차별적으로 적용되어야 하는 것을 전제로 운항을 허가할 수 있음을 밝혔다. 이것은 북한당국이 '95년 12월에 자국영공을 전세계에 개방하겠다고 밝힌 후 진전된 일련의 사태 발전의 일부분이다. 북한은 '95.2월 초 국제영공통과 업무협정에 가입하였다. 외국항공기에 의한 북한의 영공통과비행은 이 협정에 가입하였다고 자동적으로 허가되는 것은 아니며 사안별로 허가되어야 한다는 점에 유의할 필요가 있다. 북한이 이러한 영공개방의사를 밝힌 것은 오랫동안 진행되어 왔던 일본/중국간 직선항로 문제에 있어서, 한국과 중국간의 합의로 서울/북경간에 직선항로를 설정하게 됨으로써 사실상 문제가 해결되었고, 따라서 향후 외국항공사가 한반도의 남쪽만을 통과하여 동경/북경간을 운항하게되는 가능성에 대하여 당혹감을 가지고 있기 때문이라고 보여진다. 한편 일본/중국간 직선항로 설정문제는 이것이 운항시간과 연료를 절약하게 된다는 점에서 IATA, ICAO 등 국제기구에 의하여 1980년대 초반부터 추구되어져 왔다. 그러나 남북간의 대립 등 복잡한 한반도 정세, 남북한을 포함한 일본, 중국 등 이해관계 당사국의 ICAO에 대한 형식적이고 외교적인 태도 등으로 인하여 아무런 해결책없이 십수년이 지나가게 되었다. 심지어 ICAO는 '88년 휴전선을 통과하는 단일항로안까지 제시하였는 바 이것은 한반도 정세에 대한 뚜렷한 이해가 없었던 때문이라고 생각된다. '95.9.17. "남복간 화해, 불가침, 교류 및 협력에 관한 합의서"가 서명되었다. 동 합의서에서는 남북간 군사적 대치 상태가 해소되는 상황에 따라 김포 및 순안비행장간 직항로를 개설한다고 되어있다. 현재까지 항공부문에서는 이렇다할 교류, 협력 실적은 없었으나 향후 남북관계의 진전에 따라 이 부문에서의 협력사업은 많다고 생각된다. 우선 위에서 언급한 남북한 및 각국 항공기가 남북의 비행정보구역을 통과 비행할 수 있도록 관제협정을 체결하고 필요할 경우 기술인력을 훈련하는데 상호 협조할 수 있다. 또한 설악산과 금강산을 연결하는 관광코스를 개발하여 항공기를 운항할 수 있다. 다음 남북의 주요 지점간에 전세기를 운항하고, 수요가 성숙할 경우 주요 도시 (남: 서울, 부산, 대구, 광주, 제주 등, 북: 평양, 신의주, 청진, 원산 등)를 연결하는 정기편을 개설할 수 있을 것이다. 이밖에 항공사간 영업사항에 관한 협력을 기대해 볼 수 있다. 남북간 항공협력은 한반도의 통일을 앞당길 수 있는 좋은 수단으로 작용할 수 있다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.783-788
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• 2011

Different from the main land of South Korea, Jeju Island has been in difficulties for measuring discharge. Due to high infiltration rate, most of streams in Jeju Island are usually in the dried state except six streams with the steady base flow, and the unique geological characteristics such as steep slope and short traveling distance of runoff have forced rainfall runoff usually to occur during very short period of time like one or two days. While discharge observations in Jeju Island have been conducted only for 16 sites with fixed electromagnetic surface velocimetry, effective analysis and validation of observed discharge data and operation of the monitoring sites still have been limited due to very few professions to maintain such jobs. This research is sponsored by Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs to build water cycle monitoring and management system of Jeju Island. Specifically, the research focuses on optimizing discharge measurement techniques adjusted for Jeju Island, expanding the monitoring sites, and validating the existing discharge data. First of all, we attempted to conduct discharge measurements in streams with steady base flow, by utilizing various recent discharge monitoring techniques, such as ADCP, LSPIV, Magnetic Velocimetry, and Electromagnetic Wave Surface Velocimetry. ADCP has been known to be the most accurate in terms of discharge measurement compared with other techniques, thus that the discharge measurement taken by ADCP could be used as a benchmark data for validation of others. However, there are still concerns of using ADCP in flood seasons; thereby LSPIV would be able to be applied for replacing ADCP in such flooded situation in the stream. In addition, sort of practical approaches such as Magnetic Velocimetry, and Electromagnetic Wave Surface Velocimetry would also be validated, which usually measure velocity in the designated parts of stream and assume the measured velocity to be representative for whole cross-section or profile at any specified location. The result of the comparison and analysis will be used for correcting existing discharge measurement by Electromagnetic Wave Surface Velocimetry and finding the most optimized discharge techniques in the future.

• 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.39-63
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• 2020

2020년 국내 항공운송업계는 COVID 19 감염증 확산으로 대규모의 영업 손실이 발생하고 있다. 2019년의 한일관계 악화로 인해 항공수요가 대폭 감소한 데 이어, 유례없는 COVID 19의 발발로 항공운송업계는 그야말로 고사 직전의 상황에 이를 정도이다. 일부 항공사는 정상적인 금융시장에서의 자금조달이 불가능한 수준에 빠졌다는 이야기도 전해지며, 몇몇의 저가항공사들은 기업생존이 참담한 수준을 넘어 파산 수순을 밟고 있다는 보도도 나오고 있다. 항공운송업계로서는 현 상황이 역사상 최악의 시기라고 해도 과언이 아닐 정도이다. 본 논문에서는 EU 위원회에서 지난 3월 발표된 'COVID-19에 따른 여객의 권리보호를 위한 해석 가이드라인'을 검토해 보았다. 본 가이드라인은 ① 항공여객(air passenger), ② 철도여객(rail passenger), ③ 버스여객(bus passenger), ④ 해상 및 내수로 여객(maritime and inland waterway passenger)에 관한 각 분야의 EU 규칙상 COVID-19의 여파와 관련한 여객의 권리보호 해석방향과 기준을 제시한 일종의 해석지침이라 할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 이와 같은 EU 위원회의 해석지침 중 항공여객보상에 관한 EC 261/2004 규칙상 COVID-19 관련 EU 해석지침을 크게 ① 정보공지, ② 항공여객의 환불·재항로 설정권, ③ 항공여객의 서비스 보장권, ④ 항공여객의 보상청구권 으로 내용을 구분하여, 지침의 주요 골자를 소개하고 관련 논점들을 검토해 보았다. 나아가 우리나라 항공여객운송업계의 COVID-19 관련 대응현황을 개괄하고, COVID-19 관련 EU 해석지침이 제시하는 몇 가지 시사점들을 생각해보았다.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.694-700
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• 2018

우리나라는 원자력 발전소를 운영하면서 발생하는 중 저준위 방폐물을 경북 경주시에 위치한 방폐물처분장을 통하여 영구적으로 처분하고 있다. 하지만 방폐물의 해상운송은 해양사고의 위험성에 노출되어 있고, 이에 관하여 해양경찰의 기능과 역할적 관점에서 안전성 확보를 위한 제도의 도입이 필요할 것이다. 특히 우리나라는 허베이스프리트 사고 또는 세월호 사고 등 국가적 재난에 해당하는 대형 해양사고로 인하여 사회적 영향을 받은 바 있으므로, 이를 대비한 대응체계가 필요할 것이다. 이러한 관점에서 우리나라의 방폐물 해상운송의 현황을 파악해 보고, 외국 주요국의 대응체계에 대해서 살펴보았다. 주요 사고 사례를 검토한 결과, 이와 유사한 핵물질 운반선 및 위험물 운반선의 사고 등 사회적, 지역적, 국제적 영향을 미칠 수 있는 해양사고에 긴급하게 대응하고자 유럽 국가를 중심으로 비상예인선(ETV) 선단을 운용하고 있었으며 일정 부분 효과를 증명하고 있다. 이를 바탕으로 한국형 ETV의 도입을 제시한다. 즉, 핵물질 운송선박, 대형 유조선, 대형 여객선 등의 해양사고와 같이 막대한 환경적, 재산적, 인명적 손해로 이어질 수 있는 대형 해양사고의 초기 대응을 위해 비상예인기능, 유류오염 방제기능과 구조 장비 및 인력 수송이 가능한 한국형 ETV의 도입이 필요하리라 보인다. 이를 통해 해양경찰의 해양사고 대응기능의 향상으로 이어지며, 국가적 재난에 대한 초기대응의 골든타임을 놓치지 않게 되어 귀중한 인명과 재산을 지키고 환경을 보호하는데 일조할 것이다.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.179-186
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• 2020

본 연구는 코로나19의 세계적 대유행(Pandemic)으로 인한 동북아시아 공항 네트워크의 구조적 변화를 분석하고 공항 경쟁력 향상에 도움을 줄 수 있는 정책 제언을 도출하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 소셜 네트워크 분석(Social Network Analysis; SNA)을 이용하여 코로나19 전후 네트워크의 중심성 분석을 시행하고 네트워크를 시각화하였다. 이를 위해 2019년 3월 4~10일 및 2020년 3월 9~15일 각 일주일간의 동북아시아 공항 국제선 전체를 대상으로 출발·도착하는 노선을 OAG(Official Airline Guide)의 Schedules Analyzer Database를 통해 추출하였다. 분석 결과 코로나19 사태 이후 동북아 공항 네트워크의 노드와 링크, 밀도가 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 전반적인 네트워크 밀도 감소 속에서도 인천공항의 중심성은 상대적으로 덜 감소한 것으로 확인되었다. 수요 급감을 겪고 있는 항공운송산업의 위기 극복을 위해 정부 및 공항의 적극적 지원이 필요할 것이다. 본 연구 결과는 코로나19 확산이 동북아시아 공항 네트워크의 중심성 지수에 미친 영향을 분석하여 향후 수요 회복 시 전략 수립에 필요한 실무적 시사점을 제시하였다는 점에서 의의를 갖는다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.163-174
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• 2006

The $Ph{\acute{e}}bus$ FP project is an international reactor safety project. Its main objective is to study the release, transport and retention of fission products in a severe accident of a light water reactor (LWR). The FPT4 test was performed with a fuel debris bed geometry, to look at late phase core degradation and the releases of low volatile fission products and actinides. Post Test Analyses results indicate that releases of noble gases (Xe, Kr) and high-volatile fission products (Cs, I) were nearly complete and comparable to those obtained during $Ph{\acute{e}}bus$ tests performed with a fuel bundle geometry (FPT1, FPT2). Volatile fission products such as Mo, Te, Rb, Sb were released significantly as in previous tests. Ba integral release was greater than that observed during FPT1. Release of Ru was comparable to that observed during FPT1 and FPT2. As in other $Ph{\acute{e}}bus$ tests, the Ru distribution suggests Ru volatilization followed by fast redeposition in the fuelled section. The similar release fraction for all lanthanides and fuel elements suggests the released fuel particles deposited onto the plenum surfaces. A blockage by molten material induced a steam by-pass which may explain some of the low releases. The revaporisation testing under different atmospheres (pure steam, $H_2/N_2$ and steam /$H_2$) and up to $1000^{\circ}C$ was performed on samples from the first upper plenum. These showed high releases of Cs for all the atmospheres tested. However, different kinetics of revaporisation were observed depending on the gas composition and temperature. Besides Cs, significant revaporisations of other elements were observed: e.g. Ag under reducing conditions, Cd and Sn in steam-containing atmospheres. Revaporisation of small amounts of fuel was also observed in pure steam atmosphere.

• 한국항해학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.1-18
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• 1997

From the beginning of 1990s , also in the shipping industry, especially liner shipping industry competition has been more intensive and difference of the service quality among shipping companies has been learned . On the other hand, a shipping company has some limitations to do its international mission for itself just by broadening service area. For this reason, the necessity for the global strategi alliance among the shipping companies, which is orginally aimed at sharing of facilities and organixation, has been developed. Through strategic alliance, liner shipping companies do not need to input the additional capitals to increase the material assets such as vessel capacity and spread the risk by the enlargement of the market. Also, they can secure the competitive edge through efficient utilizaton of assets. The purpose of strategic alliance of Hanjin Shipping Ltd., can be summarized as follows ; broadening of service area, cost reduction through vessel sharing, realization of rationalized shipping service by terminal and equipment or facilities sharing. Liner strategic alliances are agreement among liner companies to pol their equipment , andterminals for joint operations and services in which each alliance partner continues to serve its market using jointly operated or used inland feeders,inland terminals, port terminals, and mainline fleets of ship as well as joint pools of containers and equipment. Strategic alliances are generally more formal agreements than consortia and impose longer term and far reaching obligation on their members. It also acts as one in developing and advancing the strategic aims of the alliance members. The most important objective for liner strategic alliances is cost reduction and improvement in capital asset utilization. Main aims of strategic alliance drawn in this paper, can be enumerated follows : 1. improvements in service frequency and quality : 2. improvements in vessel and equipment utilization and thereby reductions in fixed and variable cost ; 3. improvements in market shares and high value cargo booking ; 4. reductions in intermodal storage and port terminal throughput costs ; 5. improvements in negotiating powers with ports and feeder transport providers ; 6. reduction in financial and other fixed costs such as insurance; 7. coordination and integration of MIS and EDI systems and service for greater efficiency and market penetration ; and, 8. improvements in logistic chain management and economic of scale by equipment depot, terminal, and vessel sharing.