• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.59-71
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• 2014

Purpose - In recent years, many firms have attempted various approaches to cope with the continual increase of aviation transportation. The previous research into freight charge forecasting models has focused on regression analyses using a few influence factors to calculate the future price. However, these approaches have limitations that make them difficult to apply into practice: They cannot respond promptly to small price changes and their predictive power is relatively low. Therefore, the current study proposes a freight charge-forecasting model using time series data instead a regression approach. The main purposes of this study can thus be summarized as follows. First, a proper model for freight charge using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which is mainly used for time series forecast, is presented. Second, a modified ARIMA model for freight charge prediction and the standard process of determining freight charge based on the model is presented. Third, a straightforward freight charge prediction model for practitioners to apply and utilize is presented. Research design, data, and methodology - To develop a new freight charge model, this study proposes the ARIMAC(p,q) model, which applies time difference constantly to address the correlation coefficient (autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function) problem as it appears in the ARIMA(p,q) model and materialize an error-adjusted ARIMAC(p,q). Cargo Account Settlement Systems (CASS) data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are used to predict the air freight charge. In the modeling, freight charge data for 72 months (from January 2006 to December 2011) are used for the training set, and a prediction interval of 23 months (from January 2012 to November 2013) is used for the validation set. The freight charge from November 2012 to November 2013 is predicted for three routes - Los Angeles, Miami, and Vienna - and the accuracy of the prediction interval is analyzed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results - The result of the proposed model shows better accuracy of prediction because the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 10% and the MAPE of ARIMAC is 11.2% for the L.A. route. For the Miami route, the proposed model also shows slightly better accuracy in that the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 3.5%, while that of ARIMAC is 3.7%. However, for the Vienna route, the accuracy of ARIMAC is better because the MAPE of ARIMAC is 14.5% and the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 15.7%. Conclusions - The accuracy of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model appears better when a route's freight charge variance is large, and the accuracy of ARIMA is better when the freight charge variance is small or has a trend of ascent or descent. From the results, it can be concluded that the ARIMAC model, which uses moving averages, has less predictive power for small price changes, while the error-adjusted ARIMAC model, which uses error correction, has the advantage of being able to respond to price changes quickly.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.8
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• pp.71-84
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• 1996

최근 남북관계는 대북 쌀 지원 문제와 관련한 북한 측의 태도와 이후의 무장공비 남파 등으로 악화되어 있다. 북한 측을 대화창구로 유도하고 남북 경협 등을 통하여 남북한 관계를 개선하려는 우리측의 노력은 이무런 성과를 거두고 있지 못한 것 같다. 남북한 항공판계의 진전도 전반적인 남북관계에서만이 고려가 가능한 실정으로 있다. 최근 언론매체를 통하여 북한당국이 미국 항공사(델타, 노스웨스트)의 평양비행정보구역 통과 우리 영공으로의 비행을 허가하였으며, 이에 대하여 우리측은 우선 남북한 관제당국간 관제협정이 체결되고, 동 항로를 이용한 비행은 우리 항공사를 포함한 모든 항공사에 비차별적으로 적용되어야 하는 것을 전제로 운항을 허가할 수 있음을 밝혔다. 이것은 북한당국이 '95년 12월에 자국영공을 전세계에 개방하겠다고 밝힌 후 진전된 일련의 사태 발전의 일부분이다. 북한은 '95.2월 초 국제영공통과 업무협정에 가입하였다. 외국항공기에 의한 북한의 영공통과비행은 이 협정에 가입하였다고 자동적으로 허가되는 것은 아니며 사안별로 허가되어야 한다는 점에 유의할 필요가 있다. 북한이 이러한 영공개방의사를 밝힌 것은 오랫동안 진행되어 왔던 일본/중국간 직선항로 문제에 있어서, 한국과 중국간의 합의로 서울/북경간에 직선항로를 설정하게 됨으로써 사실상 문제가 해결되었고, 따라서 향후 외국항공사가 한반도의 남쪽만을 통과하여 동경/북경간을 운항하게되는 가능성에 대하여 당혹감을 가지고 있기 때문이라고 보여진다. 한편 일본/중국간 직선항로 설정문제는 이것이 운항시간과 연료를 절약하게 된다는 점에서 IATA, ICAO 등 국제기구에 의하여 1980년대 초반부터 추구되어져 왔다. 그러나 남북간의 대립 등 복잡한 한반도 정세, 남북한을 포함한 일본, 중국 등 이해관계 당사국의 ICAO에 대한 형식적이고 외교적인 태도 등으로 인하여 아무런 해결책없이 십수년이 지나가게 되었다. 심지어 ICAO는 '88년 휴전선을 통과하는 단일항로안까지 제시하였는 바 이것은 한반도 정세에 대한 뚜렷한 이해가 없었던 때문이라고 생각된다. '95.9.17. "남복간 화해, 불가침, 교류 및 협력에 관한 합의서"가 서명되었다. 동 합의서에서는 남북간 군사적 대치 상태가 해소되는 상황에 따라 김포 및 순안비행장간 직항로를 개설한다고 되어있다. 현재까지 항공부문에서는 이렇다할 교류, 협력 실적은 없었으나 향후 남북관계의 진전에 따라 이 부문에서의 협력사업은 많다고 생각된다. 우선 위에서 언급한 남북한 및 각국 항공기가 남북의 비행정보구역을 통과 비행할 수 있도록 관제협정을 체결하고 필요할 경우 기술인력을 훈련하는데 상호 협조할 수 있다. 또한 설악산과 금강산을 연결하는 관광코스를 개발하여 항공기를 운항할 수 있다. 다음 남북의 주요 지점간에 전세기를 운항하고, 수요가 성숙할 경우 주요 도시 (남: 서울, 부산, 대구, 광주, 제주 등, 북: 평양, 신의주, 청진, 원산 등)를 연결하는 정기편을 개설할 수 있을 것이다. 이밖에 항공사간 영업사항에 관한 협력을 기대해 볼 수 있다. 남북간 항공협력은 한반도의 통일을 앞당길 수 있는 좋은 수단으로 작용할 수 있다.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.279-287
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• 2018

Flight tests for aircraft development and certification have higher air accidents risk than other aerospace industries. Accordingly risk identification necessary for risk management in the safety management system is a very important factor in preventing similar air accidents during flight tests. But internationally issued accident statistics are usually confined to commercial transport aircraft and they do not reflect characteristics of flight tests, also databases to hazards identification during flight tests are not established or available in Republic of Korea. Therefore, we identified flight test procedures and traced the major causes of aviation accidents based on the statistics and preventive materials for risk management which were issued by international organizations and advanced countries of aviation. A total of 312 final reports classified as flight test among air accident/incident database held by U.S. NTSB were researched and about 200 flight test hazard were identified. The results of this study will be used as basic data for establishing the safety management system of the national comprehensive flight performance test site.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.279-310
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• 2015

The Montreal Convention is an agreement that governs the liability of air carriers for injury and death to passengers travelling internationally by air. The Montreal Convention serves as the exclusive legal framework for victims and survivors seeking compensation for injuries or death arising from accidents involving international air travel. The Montreal Convention sets monetary liability caps on damages in order to promote the financial stability of the international airline transport industry and protect the industry from exorbitant damages awards in courts that would inevitably bankrupt an airline. The Convention allows a litigant suing under the Convention to avoid the liability caps in instances where the airline's culpability for the injury or death is the direct result of negligence, another wrongful act, or an omission of the airline or its agents. The Montreal Convention identifies specific locations as appropriate venues to advance claims for litigants seeking compensation. These venues are closely tied to either the carrier's business operations or the passenger's domicile. In March 2015, in an act of suicide stemming from reactive depression, the co-pilot of Germanwings flight 9525 intentionally crashed the aircraft into the French Alps killing the passengers and the remaining crew. Subsequent to the crash, there were media reports that Lufthansa made varying settlement offers to families of the passengers who died aboard the flight ranging from $8,300 USD to $4.5 Million USD depending on the passengers' citizenship. The unverified offers by Lufthansa prompted outcries from the families of the decedent passengers that they would institute suit against the airline in a more plaintiff friendly jurisdiction such as the United States. The first part of this article accomplishes two goals. First, it examines the Montreal Convention's venue requirement along with an overview of the recoverable damages from countries comprising the citizenship of the passengers who were not American. The intentional crash of Germanwings flight 9525 by its First Officer encompasses the possibility that Lufthansa may be exposed to unlimited compensatory damages beyond the liability caps contained in the Convention. The second part of this article explores the application of the Convention's liability limits to the Germanwings flight to demonstrate that the likelihood of escaping the liability limits is slim.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.225-285
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• 2017

In regard to the regulations related to the RPA(Remotely Piloted Aircraft), which is sometimes called in other countries as UA(Unmanned Aircraft), ICAO stipulates the regulations in the 'RPAS manual (2015)' in detail based on the 'Chicago Convention' in 1944, and enacts provisions for the Rules of UAS or RPAS. Other contries stipulates them such as the Federal Airline Rules (14 CFR), Public Law (112-95) in the United States, the Air Transport Act, Air Transport Order, Air Transport Authorization Order (through revision in "Regulations to operating Rules on unmanned aerial System") based on EASA Regulation (EC) No.216/2008 in the case of unmanned aircaft under 150kg in Germany, and Civil Aviation Act (CAA 1998), Civil Aviation Act 101 (CASR Part 101) in Australia. Commonly, these laws exclude the model aircraft for leisure purpose and require pilots on the ground, not onboard aricraft, capable of controlling RPA. The laws also require that all managements necessary to operate RPA and pilots safely and efficiently under the structure of the unmanned aircraft system within the scope of the regulations. Each country classifies the RPA as an aircraft less than 25kg. Australia and Germany further break down the RPA at a lower weight. ICAO stipulates all general aviation operations, including commercial operation, in accordance with Annex 6 of the Chicago Convention, and it also applies to RPAs operations. However, passenger transportation using RPAs is excluded. If the operational scope of the RPAs includes the airspace of another country, the special permission of the relevant country shall be required 7 days before the flight date with detail flight plan submitted. In accordance with Federal Aviation Regulation 107 in the United States, a small non-leisure RPA may be operated within line-of-sight of a responsible navigator or observer during the day in the speed range up to 161 km/hr (87 knots) and to the height up to 122 m (400 ft) from surface or water. RPA must yield flight path to other aircraft, and is prohibited to load dangerous materials or to operate more than two RPAs at the same time. In Germany, the regulations on UAS except for leisure and sports provide duty to avoidance of airborne collisions and other provisions related to ground safety and individual privacy. Although commercial UAS of 5 kg or less can be freely operated without approval by relaxing the existing regulatory requirements, all the UAS regardless of the weight must be operated below an altitude of 100 meters with continuous monitoring and pilot control. Australia was the first country to regulate unmanned aircraft in 2001, and its regulations have impacts on the unmanned aircraft laws of ICAO, FAA, and EASA. In order to improve the utiliity of unmanned aircraft which is considered to be low risk, the regulation conditions were relaxed through the revision in 2016 by adding the concept "Excluded RPA". In the case of excluded RPA, it can be operated without special permission even for commercial purpose. Furthermore, disscussions on a new standard manual is being conducted for further flexibility of the current regulations.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.249-259
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• 2014

This paper investigates the characteristics of high $PM_{2.5}$ episodes occurred at Anmyeondo area in spring time, 2009. The monthly mean $PM_{2.5}$ concentration during April was the highest in the year and especially, high levels of $PM_{2.5}$ exceeding standard regulation level were sustained consecutively during 5 to 13 April. To analyze more detailed $PM_{2.5}$ characteristics, numerical simulations were carried out using CMAQ(Community Multi-scale Air Quality) with IPR(Integrated Process Rate) and DDM-3D(Decoupled Direct Method). $PM_{2.5}$ level was lower in daytime than that in nighttime due to vigorous vertical mixing during daytime. The chemical composition was showed that ratio of primary ion components such as sulfate($SO_4{^{2-}}$), nitrate($NO_3{^-}$) and ammonium($NH_4{^+}$) were nearly half of total amount of $PM_{2.5}$. Aerosol and transport process dominantly contributed to $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in Anmyeondo area and contribution rate of local emissions was nearly zero since Anmyeondo area has rare anthropogenic PM emission sources. DDM-3D analysis result showed that $PM_{2.5}$ in Anmyeondo area was influenced by emissions from Shanghai and Shandong region of China.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.293-302
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• 2020

Capital mobilization is a traditional business of commercial banks and is one of the core foundations for the development of a bank. Capital mobilization is the main input in the operation of a bank, and this is also the basis for generating output for credit activities as well as other banking activities. This study aims to determine the main factors that affect the decisions of individual customers to put savings deposit in Vietnamese commercial banks. Survey data collected from 403 individual customers were analyzed to provide evidence. The results from the multiple regression analysis by using SPSS software revealed that all scales in this study were reliable, and there were six components impacting the savings deposit decision of individual customers from the strongest to the weakest in the following order: the form of promotion, bank brand, service quality, interest rate policy, and employee knowledge and attitude. Besides, the finding showed customers who have high income tend to have a stronger decision on savings deposits in commercial banks. The main findings of this article provide some empirical implications for marketers in banks and serve as a suggestion to improve these factors in order to retain and attract individual customers' savings deposit decisions.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.273-273
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• 2002

Masan barber was situated in S.Korean southern central coast. And it is contributing greatly in S.korea's economy development to international trading port of Heaven's blessing that possess natural, geographical situation. Also, because there are Masan free tax area and chanwon heavy industrial complex, sachon air industrial complex etc. on back, it is important permanency in our country. Specially, because inland transport routes such as southern highway, Guma highway and national road system are developed well, the importance is very high. Masan harbor 1899.05.01 be that opened, the 1st and 2nd (central pier) was build 1938∼1944 year, and the 3rd pier was 1973∼1978 year. the 4th pier was 1974∼1983 year, 5th pier was 1984∼1988, 6th pier (west pier) was 1985∼1992 year. it was developed over 100 years. But, it did great many harbor and bay development of last 100 yens but research about coastline change and seashore reclamation is insufficient. Therefore, this research executed research about coastline change of Masan bay of last 100 years, In this study, we analyzed aerial photographs and tide data for the past 100 years using digital aerial photo analysis and GIS techniques for each 3-year interval. We abstracted beach DEM (digital elevation model) and ortho aerial photographs, and conducted a space analysis. As a result, we were able to identify changes in the area As a result, we drew 10 years cycle coastline change of Masan bay. and we can detect bay coastal line change and calculate refill rate.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.119-129
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• 2016

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for estimating additional carbon emissions due to freeway incidents. METHODS : As our country grows, our highway policy has mainly neglected the environmental and social sectors. However, with the formation of a national green growth keynote and an increase in the number of people interested in environmental and social issues, problems related to social issues, such as traffic accidents and congestion, and environmental issues, such as the impact of air pollution caused by exhaust gases that are emitted from highway vehicles, are beginning to be discussed. Accordingly, studies have been conducted on a variety of environmental aspects in the field of road transport, and for the quantitative calculation of greenhouse gas emissions, using various methods. However, in order to observe the effects of carbon emissions, microscopic simulations must use many difficult variables such as cost, analysis time, and ease of analysis process. In this study, additional greenhouse gas emissions that occur because of highway traffic accidents were classified by type (incident handling time, number of lanes blocked, freeway level of service), and the annual additional emissions based on incidents were calculated. According to the results, congestion length and emissions tend to increase with an increase in incident clearance time, number of occupied lanes, and worsening level of service. Using this data, we analyzed accident data on the Gyeong-bu Expressway (Yang-Jae IC - Osan IC) for a year. RESULTS : Additional greenhouse gas emissions that occur because of highway traffic accidents were classified by type (incident handling time, number of lanes blocked, freeway level of service) and annual additional emissions caused by accidents were calculated. CONCLUSIONS : In this study, a methodology for estimating carbon emissions due to freeway incidents was developed that incorporates macroscopic flow models. The results of the study are organized in the form of a look-Up table that calculates carbon emissions rather easily.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.59-77
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• 2016

This paper reviews the current local logistics policy of the Incheon Metropolitan City and prioritizes policy agenda based on fuzzy AHP and IPA (Importance Performance Analysis). The analysis recommends that the city needs to keep up the current good works at the policy agenda such as early expansion of the international logistics hub and improvement of the provincial highway network.The policy agenda including the logistics parks, the transport networks and the hinterland activities are evaluated as overkilled agenda. Revitalization of the logistics database, establishment of an integrated business support center, modal shift, and public logistics support were classified as low-priority policy agenda. The policy agenda of urgent concentration includes development of new logistics business and air cargo industry.