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The Effects of Environmental Dynamism on Supply Chain Commitment in the High-tech Industry: The Roles of Flexibility and Dependence (첨단산업의 환경동태성이 공급체인의 결속에 미치는 영향: 유연성과 의존성의 역할)

  • Kim, Sang-Deok;Ji, Seong-Goo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.31-54
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    • 2007
  • The exchange between buyers and sellers in the industrial market is changing from short-term to long-term relationships. Long-term relationships are governed mainly by formal contracts or informal agreements, but many scholars are now asserting that controlling relationship by using formal contracts under environmental dynamism is inappropriate. In this case, partners will depend on each other's flexibility or interdependence. The former, flexibility, provides a general frame of reference, order, and standards against which to guide and assess appropriate behavior in dynamic and ambiguous situations, thus motivating the value-oriented performance goals shared between partners. It is based on social sacrifices, which can potentially minimize any opportunistic behaviors. The later, interdependence, means that each firm possesses a high level of dependence in an dynamic channel relationship. When interdependence is high in magnitude and symmetric, each firm enjoys a high level of power and the bonds between the firms should be reasonably strong. Strong shared power is likely to promote commitment because of the common interests, attention, and support found in such channel relationships. This study deals with environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Firms in the high-tech industry regard it as a key success factor to successfully cope with environmental changes. However, due to the lack of studies dealing with environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry, it is very difficult to find effective strategies to cope with them. This paper presents the results of an empirical study on the relationship between environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry. We examined the effects of consumer, competitor, and technological dynamism on supply chain commitment. Additionally, we examined the moderating effects of flexibility and dependence of supply chains. This study was confined to the type of high-tech industry which has the characteristics of rapid technology change and short product lifecycle. Flexibility among the firms of this industry, having the characteristic of hard and fast growth, is more important here than among any other industry. Thus, a variety of environmental dynamism can affect a supply chain relationship. The industries targeted industries were electronic parts, metal product, computer, electric machine, automobile, and medical precision manufacturing industries. Data was collected as follows. During the survey, the researchers managed to obtain the list of parts suppliers of 2 companies, N and L, with an international competitiveness in the mobile phone manufacturing industry; and of the suppliers in a business relationship with S company, a semiconductor manufacturing company. They were asked to respond to the survey via telephone and e-mail. During the two month period of February-April 2006, we were able to collect data from 44 companies. The respondents were restricted to direct dealing authorities and subcontractor company (the supplier) staff with at least three months of dealing experience with a manufacture (an industrial material buyer). The measurement validation procedures included scale reliability; discriminant and convergent validity were used to validate measures. Also, the reliability measurements traditionally employed, such as the Cronbach's alpha, were used. All the reliabilities were greater than.70. A series of exploratory factor analyses was conducted. We conducted confirmatory factor analyses to assess the validity of our measurements. A series of chi-square difference tests were conducted so that the discriminant validity could be ensured. For each pair, we estimated two models-an unconstrained model and a constrained model-and compared the two model fits. All these tests supported discriminant validity. Also, all items loaded significantly on their respective constructs, providing support for convergent validity. We then examined composite reliability and average variance extracted (AVE). The composite reliability of each construct was greater than.70. The AVE of each construct was greater than.50. According to the multiple regression analysis, customer dynamism had a negative effect and competitor dynamism had a positive effect on a supplier's commitment. In addition, flexibility and dependence had significant moderating effects on customer and competitor dynamism. On the other hand, all hypotheses about technological dynamism had no significant effects on commitment. In other words, technological dynamism had no direct effect on supplier's commitment and was not moderated by the flexibility and dependence of the supply chain. This study makes its contribution in the point of view that this is a rare study on environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the field of high-tech industry. Especially, this study verified the effects of three sectors of environmental dynamism on supplier's commitment. Also, it empirically tested how the effects were moderated by flexibility and dependence. The results showed that flexibility and interdependence had a role to strengthen supplier's commitment under environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Thus relationship managers in high-tech industry should make supply chain relationship flexible and interdependent. The limitations of the study are as follows; First, about the research setting, the study was conducted with high-tech industry, in which the direction of the change in the power balance of supply chain dyads is usually determined by manufacturers. So we have a difficulty with generalization. We need to control the power structure between partners in a future study. Secondly, about flexibility, we treated it throughout the paper as positive, but it can also be negative, i.e. violating an agreement or moving, but in the wrong direction, etc. Therefore we need to investigate the multi-dimensionality of flexibility in future research.

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A Study on the Function of Oral Medicine as the Secondary Clinic Based on Analysis on Admissive Channel and Case Features (내원경위 분석과 환자 특성 평가에 따른 2차 진료기관으로서 구강내과 역할에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, You-Mee;Lee, Jung-Hyun;Lim, Hyun-Dae
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.199-210
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    • 2006
  • The epidemiological researches on the inpatients hospitalized at the oral medicine ward have been continuously carried out since 1970, and most researches have been performed by centering around the oral medicine wards of college hospitals. Numerous specialists have been produced after the establishment of oral medicine, and they have been active in various fields. As dental clinics have gotten bigger, the function of oral medicine in the secondary clinics is being brought out. As admissive channel, case features, case composition and otherwise have not been researched for a long time, the related researches should be carried out from now on. Hereupon, this study was carried out by targeting the 100 inpatients hospitalized at the oral medicine ward of Sun Hospital located in Daejeon Korea, through questionnaire. As the result, the following results were derived. 1. The ages of the inpatients in Sun Hospital were $29.21{\pm}11.31$ on the average; 71 females' mean average was $29.63{\pm}11.29$ and 29 males' mean average was $28.17{\pm}11.48$. In regard of school career, the patients who finished high-school course or higher accounted for 78%; the patients' school career seemed to be relatively high. The patients who complained of temporomandibular pain accounted for the highest proportion with 65%. In motivation to visit this hospital, internet surfing was 11%, mass media was 10%, acquaintance's introduction was 38%. The patients, who were hospitalized at another hospital due to the same symptom, accounted for 56%. The dental clinics, which made the patients visit this hospital, accounted for 20%. The patients, who were previously aware that the present symptom should be treated by oral medicine, accounted for 38%. The patients, who were not aware of the fact in advance, were 62%. The respondents of 51% answered that they were aware of the fact one month or below before hospitalization. 2. The patients, who complained of craniocervical ache, accounted for 58%; the patients, whose ache aches affect dailylife, were 22%. Continuous ache was 14% and intermittent ache was 68%, and dull pain was 23%. 3. Life variations were compared with each other by using SRRS (Social Readjustment Rating Scale). In consequence, the variation within 3 years indicated a significant difference in the both groups but the variation within 6 months did not indicate any differences. 4. In regard of the questionnaire on the incidents happened for a week, the ache-group was compared with the group free from the ache. As the result, the number of strain arisen for a week, the decrease of favorite works and sudden fear indicated a significant difference. Pleasant feeling and the decrease of interests in looks did not indicate a significant difference, but came close to the significance. 5. In the questionnaire on impatience, the ache-group indicated higher value but there was not a significant difference. 6. In the questionnaire on the symptoms caused by stress, the two groups indicated significant differences in the item of 'the teethridge itches and feels a tooth rising' and 'the occiput or the nape is stiff.' In the item 'the inside of the cheek or the teethridge are widely peeled off, accompanied with ache and hemorrhage', 'the face has acne or pimple' and 'headache frequently attacks', a significant difference was not observed but the two groups came close to the significance.

A Study on the Application of Outlier Analysis for Fraud Detection: Focused on Transactions of Auction Exception Agricultural Products (부정 탐지를 위한 이상치 분석 활용방안 연구 : 농수산 상장예외품목 거래를 대상으로)

  • Kim, Dongsung;Kim, Kitae;Kim, Jongwoo;Park, Steve
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.93-108
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    • 2014
  • To support business decision making, interests and efforts to analyze and use transaction data in different perspectives are increasing. Such efforts are not only limited to customer management or marketing, but also used for monitoring and detecting fraud transactions. Fraud transactions are evolving into various patterns by taking advantage of information technology. To reflect the evolution of fraud transactions, there are many efforts on fraud detection methods and advanced application systems in order to improve the accuracy and ease of fraud detection. As a case of fraud detection, this study aims to provide effective fraud detection methods for auction exception agricultural products in the largest Korean agricultural wholesale market. Auction exception products policy exists to complement auction-based trades in agricultural wholesale market. That is, most trades on agricultural products are performed by auction; however, specific products are assigned as auction exception products when total volumes of products are relatively small, the number of wholesalers is small, or there are difficulties for wholesalers to purchase the products. However, auction exception products policy makes several problems on fairness and transparency of transaction, which requires help of fraud detection. In this study, to generate fraud detection rules, real huge agricultural products trade transaction data from 2008 to 2010 in the market are analyzed, which increase more than 1 million transactions and 1 billion US dollar in transaction volume. Agricultural transaction data has unique characteristics such as frequent changes in supply volumes and turbulent time-dependent changes in price. Since this was the first trial to identify fraud transactions in this domain, there was no training data set for supervised learning. So, fraud detection rules are generated using outlier detection approach. We assume that outlier transactions have more possibility of fraud transactions than normal transactions. The outlier transactions are identified to compare daily average unit price, weekly average unit price, and quarterly average unit price of product items. Also quarterly averages unit price of product items of the specific wholesalers are used to identify outlier transactions. The reliability of generated fraud detection rules are confirmed by domain experts. To determine whether a transaction is fraudulent or not, normal distribution and normalized Z-value concept are applied. That is, a unit price of a transaction is transformed to Z-value to calculate the occurrence probability when we approximate the distribution of unit prices to normal distribution. The modified Z-value of the unit price in the transaction is used rather than using the original Z-value of it. The reason is that in the case of auction exception agricultural products, Z-values are influenced by outlier fraud transactions themselves because the number of wholesalers is small. The modified Z-values are called Self-Eliminated Z-scores because they are calculated excluding the unit price of the specific transaction which is subject to check whether it is fraud transaction or not. To show the usefulness of the proposed approach, a prototype of fraud transaction detection system is developed using Delphi. The system consists of five main menus and related submenus. First functionalities of the system is to import transaction databases. Next important functions are to set up fraud detection parameters. By changing fraud detection parameters, system users can control the number of potential fraud transactions. Execution functions provide fraud detection results which are found based on fraud detection parameters. The potential fraud transactions can be viewed on screen or exported as files. The study is an initial trial to identify fraud transactions in Auction Exception Agricultural Products. There are still many remained research topics of the issue. First, the scope of analysis data was limited due to the availability of data. It is necessary to include more data on transactions, wholesalers, and producers to detect fraud transactions more accurately. Next, we need to extend the scope of fraud transaction detection to fishery products. Also there are many possibilities to apply different data mining techniques for fraud detection. For example, time series approach is a potential technique to apply the problem. Even though outlier transactions are detected based on unit prices of transactions, however it is possible to derive fraud detection rules based on transaction volumes.

A Study on the Improvement Plans of Police Fire Investigation (경찰화재조사의 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • SeoMoon, Su-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Fire Investigation
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.103-121
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    • 2006
  • We are living in more comfortable circumstances with the social developments and the improvement of the standard of living, but, on the other hand, we are exposed to an increase of the occurrences of tires on account of large-sized, higher stories, deeper underground building and the use of various energy resources. The materials of the floor in a residence modern society have been going through various alterations in accordance with the uses of a residence and are now used as final goods in interioring the bottom of apartments, houses and shops. There are so many kinds of materials you usually come in contact with, but in the first place, we need to make an experiment on the spread of the fire with the hypocaust used as the floors of apartments, etc. and the floor covers you usually can get easily. We, scientific investigators, can get in contact with the accidents caused by incendiarism or an accidental fire closely connected with petroleum stuffs on the floor materials that give rise to lots of problems. on this account, I'd like to propose that we conduct an experiment on fire shapes by each petroleum stuff and that discriminate an accidental tire from incendiarism. In an investigation, it seems that finding a live coal could be an essential part of clearing up the cause of a tire but it could not be the cause of a fire itself. And besides, all sorts of tire cases or fire accidents have some kind of legislation and standard to minimize and at an early stage cope with the damage by tires. That is to say, we are supposed to install each kind of electric apparatus, automatic alarm equipment, automatic fire extinguisher in order to protect ourselves from the danger of fires and check them at any time and also escape urgently in case of fire-outbreaking or build a tire-proof construction to prevent flames from proliferating to the neighboring areas. Namely, you should take several factors into consideration to investigate a cause of a case or an accident related to fire. That means it's not in reason for one investigator or one investigative team to make clear of the starting part and the cause of a tire. accordingly, in this thesis, explanations would be given set limits to the judgement and verification on the cause of a fire and the concrete tire-spreading part through investigation on the very spot that a fire broke out. The fire-discernment would also be focused on the early stage fire-spreading part fire-outbreaking resources, and I think the realities of police tire investigations and the problems are still a matter of debate. The cause of a fire must be examined into by logical judgement on the basis of abundant scientific knowledge and experience covering the whole of fire phenomena. The judgement of the cause should be made with fire-spreading situation at the spot as the central figure and in case of verifying, you are supposed to prove by the situational proof from the traces of the tire-spreading to the fire-outbreaking sources. The causal relation on a fire-outbreak should not be proved by arbitrary opinion far from concrete facts, and also there is much chance of making mistakes if you draw deduction from a coincidence. It is absolutely necessary you observe in an objective attitude and grasp the situation of a tire in the investigation of the cause. Having a look at the spot with a prejudice is not allowed. The source of tire-outbreak itself is likely to be considered as the cause of a tire and that makes us doubt about the results according to interests of the independent investigators. So to speak, they set about investigations, the police investigation in the hope of it not being incendiarism, the fire department in the hope of it not being problems in installments or equipments, insurance companies in the hope of it being any incendiarism, electric fields in the hope of it not being electric defects, the gas-related in the hope of it not being gas problems. You could not look forward to more fair investigation and break off their misgivings. It is because the firing source itself is known as the cause of a fire and civil or criminal responsibilities are respected to the firing source itself. On this occasion, investigating the cause of a fire should be conducted with research, investigation, emotion independent, and finally you should clear up the cause with the results put together.

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The Audience Behavior-based Emotion Prediction Model for Personalized Service (고객 맞춤형 서비스를 위한 관객 행동 기반 감정예측모형)

  • Ryoo, Eun Chung;Ahn, Hyunchul;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2013
  • Nowadays, in today's information society, the importance of the knowledge service using the information to creative value is getting higher day by day. In addition, depending on the development of IT technology, it is ease to collect and use information. Also, many companies actively use customer information to marketing in a variety of industries. Into the 21st century, companies have been actively using the culture arts to manage corporate image and marketing closely linked to their commercial interests. But, it is difficult that companies attract or maintain consumer's interest through their technology. For that reason, it is trend to perform cultural activities for tool of differentiation over many firms. Many firms used the customer's experience to new marketing strategy in order to effectively respond to competitive market. Accordingly, it is emerging rapidly that the necessity of personalized service to provide a new experience for people based on the personal profile information that contains the characteristics of the individual. Like this, personalized service using customer's individual profile information such as language, symbols, behavior, and emotions is very important today. Through this, we will be able to judge interaction between people and content and to maximize customer's experience and satisfaction. There are various relative works provide customer-centered service. Specially, emotion recognition research is emerging recently. Existing researches experienced emotion recognition using mostly bio-signal. Most of researches are voice and face studies that have great emotional changes. However, there are several difficulties to predict people's emotion caused by limitation of equipment and service environments. So, in this paper, we develop emotion prediction model based on vision-based interface to overcome existing limitations. Emotion recognition research based on people's gesture and posture has been processed by several researchers. This paper developed a model that recognizes people's emotional states through body gesture and posture using difference image method. And we found optimization validation model for four kinds of emotions' prediction. A proposed model purposed to automatically determine and predict 4 human emotions (Sadness, Surprise, Joy, and Disgust). To build up the model, event booth was installed in the KOCCA's lobby and we provided some proper stimulative movie to collect their body gesture and posture as the change of emotions. And then, we extracted body movements using difference image method. And we revised people data to build proposed model through neural network. The proposed model for emotion prediction used 3 type time-frame sets (20 frames, 30 frames, and 40 frames). And then, we adopted the model which has best performance compared with other models.' Before build three kinds of models, the entire 97 data set were divided into three data sets of learning, test, and validation set. The proposed model for emotion prediction was constructed using artificial neural network. In this paper, we used the back-propagation algorithm as a learning method, and set learning rate to 10%, momentum rate to 10%. The sigmoid function was used as the transform function. And we designed a three-layer perceptron neural network with one hidden layer and four output nodes. Based on the test data set, the learning for this research model was stopped when it reaches 50000 after reaching the minimum error in order to explore the point of learning. We finally processed each model's accuracy and found best model to predict each emotions. The result showed prediction accuracy 100% from sadness, and 96% from joy prediction in 20 frames set model. And 88% from surprise, and 98% from disgust in 30 frames set model. The findings of our research are expected to be useful to provide effective algorithm for personalized service in various industries such as advertisement, exhibition, performance, etc.

Geology of Athabasca Oil Sands in Canada (캐나다 아사바스카 오일샌드 지질특성)

  • Kwon, Yi-Kwon
    • The Korean Journal of Petroleum Geology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2008
  • As conventional oil and gas reservoirs become depleted, interests for oil sands has rapidly increased in the last decade. Oil sands are mixture of bitumen, water, and host sediments of sand and clay. Most oil sand is unconsolidated sand that is held together by bitumen. Bitumen has hydrocarbon in situ viscosity of >10,000 centipoises (cP) at reservoir condition and has API gravity between $8-14^{\circ}$. The largest oil sand deposits are in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada. The reverves are approximated at 1.7 trillion barrels of initial oil-in-place and 173 billion barrels of remaining established reserves. Alberta has a number of oil sands deposits which are grouped into three oil sand development areas - the Athabasca, Cold Lake, and Peace River, with the largest current bitumen production from Athabasca. Principal oil sands deposits consist of the McMurray Fm and Wabiskaw Mbr in Athabasca area, the Gething and Bluesky formations in Peace River area, and relatively thin multi-reservoir deposits of McMurray, Clearwater, and Grand Rapid formations in Cold Lake area. The reservoir sediments were deposited in the foreland basin (Western Canada Sedimentary Basin) formed by collision between the Pacific and North America plates and the subsequent thrusting movements in the Mesozoic. The deposits are underlain by basement rocks of Paleozoic carbonates with highly variable topography. The oil sands deposits were formed during the Early Cretaceous transgression which occurred along the Cretaceous Interior Seaway in North America. The oil-sands-hosting McMurray and Wabiskaw deposits in the Athabasca area consist of the lower fluvial and the upper estuarine-offshore sediments, reflecting the broad and overall transgression. The deposits are characterized by facies heterogeneity of channelized reservoir sands and non-reservoir muds. Main reservoir bodies of the McMurray Formation are fluvial and estuarine channel-point bar complexes which are interbedded with fine-grained deposits formed in floodplain, tidal flat, and estuarine bay. The Wabiskaw deposits (basal member of the Clearwater Formation) commonly comprise sheet-shaped offshore muds and sands, but occasionally show deep-incision into the McMurray deposits, forming channelized reservoir sand bodies of oil sands. In Canada, bitumen of oil sands deposits is produced by surface mining or in-situ thermal recovery processes. Bitumen sands recovered by surface mining are changed into synthetic crude oil through extraction and upgrading processes. On the other hand, bitumen produced by in-situ thermal recovery is transported to refinery only through bitumen blending process. The in-situ thermal recovery technology is represented by Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage and Cyclic Steam Stimulation. These technologies are based on steam injection into bitumen sand reservoirs for increase in reservoir in-situ temperature and in bitumen mobility. In oil sands reservoirs, efficiency for steam propagation is controlled mainly by reservoir geology. Accordingly, understanding of geological factors and characteristics of oil sands reservoir deposits is prerequisite for well-designed development planning and effective bitumen production. As significant geological factors and characteristics in oil sands reservoir deposits, this study suggests (1) pay of bitumen sands and connectivity, (2) bitumen content and saturation, (3) geologic structure, (4) distribution of mud baffles and plugs, (5) thickness and lateral continuity of mud interbeds, (6) distribution of water-saturated sands, (7) distribution of gas-saturated sands, (8) direction of lateral accretion of point bar, (9) distribution of diagenetic layers and nodules, and (10) texture and fabric change within reservoir sand body.

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'Yongyudam of Hamyang', the Significance and Value as a Traditional Scenic Place ('함양 용유담(咸陽 龍遊潭)', 전래명승으로서의 의의와 가치 구명)

  • Rho, Jae-hyun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.82-101
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to survey and analyze the origin story and the legends associated with Yongyudam(龍遊潭, Dragon Creek), its scenic and spatial description in Climbing Writings(遊山記: Yusangi Notes), its geographical and geological features, its surrounding remains and letters chiseled on the rocks through the field study and the study on literatures associated with it so to identify its significance and value and then to ensure justification on preservation of Yongyudam scenic site. Conclusions of this study are as follow. As the traditional scenic place 'Geumdae-Jiri(金臺智異)' representing Hamyang-gun(咸陽郡) depicts Mount Cheonwangbong and 'Yongyudong Village(龍遊洞)', ancient maps and literatures have positioned Yongyudam as the center of Eomcheon-river Creek as well as the representing scenic site of Yongyudong Village. Core images in the spatial awareness of Yongyudam described in our ancestors' Climbing Writings Notes on Jirisan Mount are 'geographical and scenic peculiarity associated with swimming dragons', 'potholes in various shapes and sizes scattered on rocks', 'loud sound generated by swirling from shoals' and 'the scenic metaphor from the dragon legend', which have led scenic features of Yongyudam scenic site. In addition, significant scenic metaphors from legends such as 'Nine Dragons and Ascetic Majeog' and 'Kasaya Fish' as well as 'the Holy Place of Dragon God', the rain calling magic god have descended not only as the very nature of Yongyudam scenic site but also the catalyst deepening its mystic and place nature. On the other hand, Jangguso Place(杖?所, Place of Scholars) in the vicinity of Yongyudam was the place of resting and amusement for scholars from Yeongnam Province, to name a few, Kim Il-son, Cho Sik, Jung Yeo-chang and Kang Dae-su, where they experienced and recognized Jirisan Mount as the scenic living place. Letters Carved on the rocks at Jangguso Place are memorial tributes and monumental signs. Around Yongyudam, there are 3 stairs, letters chiseled on the rocks and the water rock artificially built to collect clean water, which are traditional scenic remains detectable of territoriality as the ritual place. In addition, The letters on the rock at Yongyudong-mun(龍遊洞門) discovered for the first time by this study are the sign promoting Yongyudam as the place of splendid landscape. The laconism, 'It is the Greatest Water in Jirisan Mount(方丈第一山水)' on a rock expresses the pride of Yongyudam as the representing scenic place of Mount Jirisan. Other than those, standing rocks such as Simjindae Rock, Yeong-gwidae Rock and Ganghwadae Rock show the sign that they are used as amusement and gathering places for ancestor scholars, which add significance to Yongyudam. By this study, it was possible to verify that Yongyudam in Mount Jirisan is not simply 'the scenic place in the tangible reality' but also has seamlessly inherited as the traditional scenic attraction spiritualized by overlapped historical and cultural values. Yongyudam, as the combined heritage by itself, shows that it is the product of the place nature as well as unique ensemble of cultural scenic attraction inherited through long history based on natural scenery. It is certain that not only the place value but also geographical, geological, historical and cultural values of Yongyudam are the essence of traditional scenic attraction, which should not be disparaged or damaged by whatever political or economic interests and logics.

A Study on Knowledge Entity Extraction Method for Individual Stocks Based on Neural Tensor Network (뉴럴 텐서 네트워크 기반 주식 개별종목 지식개체명 추출 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Yunseok;Lee, Hyun Jun;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2019
  • Selecting high-quality information that meets the interests and needs of users among the overflowing contents is becoming more important as the generation continues. In the flood of information, efforts to reflect the intention of the user in the search result better are being tried, rather than recognizing the information request as a simple string. Also, large IT companies such as Google and Microsoft focus on developing knowledge-based technologies including search engines which provide users with satisfaction and convenience. Especially, the finance is one of the fields expected to have the usefulness and potential of text data analysis because it's constantly generating new information, and the earlier the information is, the more valuable it is. Automatic knowledge extraction can be effective in areas where information flow is vast, such as financial sector, and new information continues to emerge. However, there are several practical difficulties faced by automatic knowledge extraction. First, there are difficulties in making corpus from different fields with same algorithm, and it is difficult to extract good quality triple. Second, it becomes more difficult to produce labeled text data by people if the extent and scope of knowledge increases and patterns are constantly updated. Third, performance evaluation is difficult due to the characteristics of unsupervised learning. Finally, problem definition for automatic knowledge extraction is not easy because of ambiguous conceptual characteristics of knowledge. So, in order to overcome limits described above and improve the semantic performance of stock-related information searching, this study attempts to extract the knowledge entity by using neural tensor network and evaluate the performance of them. Different from other references, the purpose of this study is to extract knowledge entity which is related to individual stock items. Various but relatively simple data processing methods are applied in the presented model to solve the problems of previous researches and to enhance the effectiveness of the model. From these processes, this study has the following three significances. First, A practical and simple automatic knowledge extraction method that can be applied. Second, the possibility of performance evaluation is presented through simple problem definition. Finally, the expressiveness of the knowledge increased by generating input data on a sentence basis without complex morphological analysis. The results of the empirical analysis and objective performance evaluation method are also presented. The empirical study to confirm the usefulness of the presented model, experts' reports about individual 30 stocks which are top 30 items based on frequency of publication from May 30, 2017 to May 21, 2018 are used. the total number of reports are 5,600, and 3,074 reports, which accounts about 55% of the total, is designated as a training set, and other 45% of reports are designated as a testing set. Before constructing the model, all reports of a training set are classified by stocks, and their entities are extracted using named entity recognition tool which is the KKMA. for each stocks, top 100 entities based on appearance frequency are selected, and become vectorized using one-hot encoding. After that, by using neural tensor network, the same number of score functions as stocks are trained. Thus, if a new entity from a testing set appears, we can try to calculate the score by putting it into every single score function, and the stock of the function with the highest score is predicted as the related item with the entity. To evaluate presented models, we confirm prediction power and determining whether the score functions are well constructed by calculating hit ratio for all reports of testing set. As a result of the empirical study, the presented model shows 69.3% hit accuracy for testing set which consists of 2,526 reports. this hit ratio is meaningfully high despite of some constraints for conducting research. Looking at the prediction performance of the model for each stocks, only 3 stocks, which are LG ELECTRONICS, KiaMtr, and Mando, show extremely low performance than average. this result maybe due to the interference effect with other similar items and generation of new knowledge. In this paper, we propose a methodology to find out key entities or their combinations which are necessary to search related information in accordance with the user's investment intention. Graph data is generated by using only the named entity recognition tool and applied to the neural tensor network without learning corpus or word vectors for the field. From the empirical test, we confirm the effectiveness of the presented model as described above. However, there also exist some limits and things to complement. Representatively, the phenomenon that the model performance is especially bad for only some stocks shows the need for further researches. Finally, through the empirical study, we confirmed that the learning method presented in this study can be used for the purpose of matching the new text information semantically with the related stocks.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

The Study of Korean-style Leadership (The Great Cause?Oriented and Confidence-Oriented Leadership) (대의와 신뢰 중시의 한국형 리더십 연구)

  • Park, sang ree
    • The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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    • no.23
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    • pp.99-128
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    • 2008
  • This research analyzes some Korean historical figures and presents the core values of their leaderships so that we can bring up the theory of leadership which would be compatible with the current circumstances around Korea. Through this work, we expected that we would not only find out typical examples among historical leaders but also reaffirm our identities in our history. As a result of the research, it was possible to classify some figures in history into several patterns and discover their archetypal qualities. Those qualities were 'transform(實事)', 'challenge(決死)', 'energize(風流)', 'create(創案)', and 'envision(開新)' respectively. Among the qualities, this research concentrated on the quality of 'challenge', exclusively 'death-defying spirit'. This spirit is the one with which historical leaders could sacrifice their lives for their great causes. This research selected twelve figures as incarnations of death-defying spirit, who are Gyebaek(階伯), Ganggamchan(姜邯贊), Euljimundeok(乙支文德), Choeyoung(崔瑩),ChungMongju(鄭夢周), Seongsammun (成三問), Yisunsin(李舜臣), Gwakjaewoo(郭再祐), Choeikhyeon(崔益鉉), Anjunggeun(安重根), Yunbonggil(尹奉吉), Yijun(李儁). Through analyzing their core values and abilities and categorizing some historical cases into four spheres such as a private sphere, relations sphere, a community sphere, and a society sphere, we came to find a certain element in common among those figures. It was that they eventually took the lead by showing the goal and the ideal to their people at all times. Moreover, their goals were always not only obvious but also unwavering. In the second chapter, I described the core value in a private sphere, so called '志靑靑'. It implies that a leader should set his ultimate goal and then try to attain it with an unyielding will. Obvious self-confidence and unfailing self-creed are core values in a private sphere. In the third chapter, I described the core value in a relative sphere, the relationship between one and others. It is '守信結義'. It indicates that a leader should win confidence from others by discharging his duties in the relation with others. Confidence is the highest leveled affection to others. Thus, mutual reliance should be based on truthful sincerity and affection toward others. Stubbornness and strictness are needed not to be prompted by pity simultaneously. In the fourth chapter, I described the core value in a community sphere. It is '丹心合力'. For this value, what are required to a leader are both his community spirit and his loyalty to one's community. Moreover, the strong sense of responsibility and the attitude of taking an initiative among others are also required. Thus, it can be said that the great power to conduct the community is so called fine teamwork. What's more, the attitude of the leader can exert a great influence on his community. In the fifth chapter, I described the core value of death defying spirit in the society sphere. This value might be more definite and explicit than other ones described above. A leader should prepare willingly for one's death to fulfill his great duties. 'What to do' is more important for a leader than 'how to do'. That is to say, a leader should always do righteous things. Efficiency is nothing but one of his interests. A leader must be the one who behaves himself always according to righteousness. Unless a leader's behaviors are based on righteousness, it is absolutely impossible that a leader exerts his leadership toward people very efficiently. Thus, it can be said that a true leader is the one not only who is of morality and but also who tries to fulfill his duties.