• Title/Summary/Keyword: Interest rate

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A Case Study: Improvement of Wind Risk Prediction by Reclassifying the Detection Results (풍해 예측 결과 재분류를 통한 위험 감지확률의 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.149-155
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    • 2021
  • Early warning systems for weather risk management in the agricultural sector have been developed to predict potential wind damage to crops. These systems take into account the daily maximum wind speed to determine the critical wind speed that causes fruit drops and provide the weather risk information to farmers. In an effort to increase the accuracy of wind risk predictions, an artificial neural network for binary classification was implemented. In the present study, the daily wind speed and other weather data, which were measured at weather stations at sites of interest in Jeollabuk-do and Jeollanam-do as well as Gyeongsangbuk- do and part of Gyeongsangnam- do provinces in 2019, were used for training the neural network. These weather stations include 210 synoptic and automated weather stations operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The wind speed data collected at the same locations between January 1 and December 12, 2020 were used to validate the neural network model. The data collected from December 13, 2020 to February 18, 2021 were used to evaluate the wind risk prediction performance before and after the use of the artificial neural network. The critical wind speed of damage risk was determined to be 11 m/s, which is the wind speed reported to cause fruit drops and damages. Furthermore, the maximum wind speeds were expressed using Weibull distribution probability density function for warning of wind damage. It was found that the accuracy of wind damage risk prediction was improved from 65.36% to 93.62% after re-classification using the artificial neural network. Nevertheless, the error rate also increased from 13.46% to 37.64%, as well. It is likely that the machine learning approach used in the present study would benefit case studies where no prediction by risk warning systems becomes a relatively serious issue.

A case study on monitoring the ambient ammonia concentration in paddy soil using a passive ammonia diffusive sampler (논 토양에서 암모니아 배출 특성 모니터링을 위한 수동식 암모니아 확산형 포집기 이용 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Suk;Park, Minseok;Min, Hyun-Gi;Chae, Eunji;Hyun, Seunghun;Kim, Jeong-Gyu;Koo, Namin
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.100-107
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    • 2021
  • Along with an increase in the frequency of high-concentration fine particulate matter in Korea, interest and research on ammonia (NH3) are actively increasing. It is obvious that agriculture has contributed significantly to NH3 emissions. However, studies on the long-term effect of fertilizer use on the ambient NH3 concentration of agricultural land are insufficient. Therefore, in this study, NH3 concentration in the atmosphere of agricultural land was monitored for 11 months using a passive sampler. The average ambient NH3 concentration during the total study period was 2.02 ㎍ m-3 and it was found that the effect of fertilizer application on the ambient NH3 concentration was greatest in the month immediately following fertilizer application (highest ambient NH3 concentration as 11.36㎍ m-3). After that, it was expected that the NH3 volatilization was promoted by increases in summer temperature and the concentration in the atmosphere was expected to increase. However, high NH3 concentrations in the atmosphere were not observed due to strong rainfall that lasted for a long period. After that, the ambient NH3 concentration gradually decreased through autumn and winter. In summary, when studying the contribution of fertilizer to the rate of domestic NH3 emissions, it is necessary to look intensively for at least one month immediately after fertilizer application, and weather information such as precipitation and no-rain days should be considered in the field study.

Evaluation of Sprouted Barley as a Nutritive Feed Additive for Protaetia brevitarsis and Its Antibacterial Action against Serratia marcescens (흰점박이꽃무지 사료첨가제로서 새싹보리의 곤충병원성 세균에 대한 항균 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Myung Ha;Kim, Nang-Hee;Park, Kwan-Ho;Kim, Eunsun;Kim, Yongsoon
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.475-480
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    • 2021
  • Interest in edible insects such as Protaetia brevitarsis has increased rapidly, and several insect producers use these insects in industrialized mass production. However, mass rearing of insects can cause insect diseases. Sprouted barley is a valuable source of nutrients and has antioxidant, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, and anti-cancer effects. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of sprouted barley as a feed additive for producing healthy P. brevitarsis larvae. P. brevitarsis larvae were fed feeds with or without sprouted barley, and their body weight and larval period wewe checked weekly. To confirm the antibacterial effects of sprouted barley, in vitro bioassays were performed by counting Serratia marcescens colonies, and in vivo bioassays were performed by determining the survival rate and body weights of the S. marcescens-infected larvae. Larvae fed different feeds were analyzed for their nutrient compositions (i.e., such as proximate composition, minerals, amino acids, and heavy metals). Larvae fed 5% and 10% sprouted barley had maximum weight increases of 19.2% and 23.1%, respectively. Both treatment groups had significantly shorter larval periods than those of the control group. Sprouted barley markedly inhibited the growth of entomopathogenic S. marcescens. Furthermore, larvae fed sprouted barley exhibited higher Cu, Zn, and K levels. Seventeen amino acids were present in larvae fed sprouted barley, of which, tyrosine and glutamic acid were predominant. No heavy metals were detected in any of the investigated groups. Therefore, sprouted barley may be a suitable feed additive for producing high-quality P. brevitarsis larvae.

Performance of a Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell With Direct Internal Reforming of Methanol (메탄올 내부개질형 용융탄산염 연료전지의 성능)

  • Ha, Myeong Ju;Yoon, Sung Pil;Han, Jonghee;Lim, Tae-Hoon;Kim, Woo Sik;Nam, Suk Woo
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.329-335
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    • 2020
  • Methanol synthesized from renewable hydrogen and captured CO2 has recently attracted great interest as a sustainable energy carrier for large-scale renewable energy storage. In this study, molten carbonate fuel cell's performance was investigated with the direct conversion of methanol into syngas inside the anode chamber of the cell. The internal reforming of methanol may significantly improve system efficiency since the heat generated from the electrochemical reaction can be used directly for the endothermic reforming reaction. The porous Ni-10 wt%Cr anode was sufficient for the methanol steam reforming reaction under the fuel cell operating condition. The direct supply of methanol into the anode chamber resulted in somewhat lower cell performance, especially at high current density. Recycling of the product gas into the anode gas inlet significantly improved the cell performance. The analysis based on material balance revealed that, with increasing current density and gas recycling ratio, the methanol steam reforming reaction rate likewise increased. A methanol conversion more significant than 90% was achieved with gas recycling. The results showed the feasibility of electricity and syngas co-production using the molten carbonate fuel cell. Further research is needed to optimize the fuel cell operating conditions for simultaneous production of electricity and syngas, considering both material and energy balances in the fuel cell.

The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.237-262
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    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

Estimation of the Korean Yield Curve via Bayesian Variable Selection (베이지안 변수선택을 이용한 한국 수익률곡선 추정)

  • Koo, Byungsoo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.84-132
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    • 2020
  • A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation.

Method of Reducing Separation Membrane Fouling Using Microbubbles (마이크로버블을 이용한 분리막 파울링 저감방법)

  • Kyung-Hwan Ku;Younghee Kim
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2023
  • Due to water shortages caused by water pollution and climate change, total organic carbon (TOC) standards have been implemented for wastewater discharged from public sewage treatment facilities. Furthermore, there is a growing interest and body of research pertaining to the reuse of sewage treatment water as a secure alternative water resource. The membrane bio-reactor (MBR) method is commonly used for advanced wastewater treatment because it can remove organic and inorganic ions and it does not require or emit any chemicals. However, the MBR process uses a separation membrane (MF), which requires frequent film cleaning due to fouling caused by a high concentration of mixed liquor suspended solid (MLSS). In this study, process improvement and microbubble cleaning efficiency were evaluated to improve the differential pressure, water flow, and MF fouling, which are the biggest disadvantages of operating the MF. The existing MBR method was improved by installing a precipitation tank between the air tank and the MBR tank in which raw water was introduced. Microbubbles were injected into a separation membrane tank into which the supernatant water from the precipitation tank was introduced. The microbubble generator was operated with a 15 day on, 15 day off cycle for 5 months to collect discharged water samples (4L) and measure TOC. As the supernatant water from the precipitation tank flowed into the separation membrane tank, about 95% of the supernatant water MLSS was removed so the MF fouling from biological contamination was prevented. Due to the application of microbubbles to supernatant water from the precipitation tank, the differential pressure of the separation membrane tank decreased by 1.6 to 2.3 times and the water flow increased by 1.4 times. Applying microbubbles increased the TOC removal rate by more than 58%. This study showed that separately operating the air tank and the separation membrane tank can reduce fouling, and suggested that applying additional microbubbles could improve the differential pressure, water flow, and fouling to provide a more efficient advanced treatment method.

A Study on the Development of Environment Color Checklists for Senior Center Based on Characteristics of the elders (재가노인의 특성을 고려한 경로당 환경색채 체크리스트 개발)

  • Choi, Yerim;Park, Heykyung
    • Korea Science and Art Forum
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    • v.34
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    • pp.327-337
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    • 2018
  • Korea is rapidly becoming an aging society as much as it takes the first place among OECD countries, and as the life expectancy of Korea gradually increases, the proportion of the elders in society increases. Accordingly, the happiness of the elders is contributed to the overall social atmosphere and happiness, however, the lower quality of life of the elders due to physical, psychological and social changes can be developed into social problems such as depression and rising suicide rate. As a result, there is a social interest in improving the quality of life and satisfaction of the elders, and the senior citizen center is receiving renewed attention as a form of welfare facility that can play a pivotal role in the social activities of the elders. In recent years, efforts to improve the environment of the senior citizen center have been made due to the growing role of it, however, there is a controversy over whether the quality of the indoor environment is user-friendly or not due to the limitations of material resources and human resources. It is considered that the quality of the color environment should be improved in the senior citizen center in the way that the color environment is not only an indoor environmental factor which gives high psychological and mental effects to users but also a way to improve the environmental satisfaction at the lowest cost. Previous studies on the facilities related to the elders have been actively carried out, but they were very sporadic and there was very little information about the color environment in the related laws or in the guideline presented by cities. It is necessary to integrate guidelines that are scattered within a comprehensive range without any specific target in order to grasp the current status of the color environment and to properly evaluate it. In addition, considering that the senior citizen center is an important leisure facility for the elders that functions in a residential area with a nationwide network, the results of this study are expected to contribute to the environmental improvement of existing senior citizen center which will be activated in the future by enabling the improvement of psychological satisfaction of the elders.

Usefulness of Deep Learning Image Reconstruction in Pediatric Chest CT (소아 흉부 CT 검사 시 딥러닝 영상 재구성의 유용성)

  • Do-Hun Kim;Hyo-Yeong Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.297-303
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    • 2023
  • Pediatric Computed Tomography (CT) examinations can often result in exam failures or the need for frequent retests due to the difficulty of cooperation from young patients. Deep Learning Image Reconstruction (DLIR) methods offer the potential to obtain diagnostically valuable images while reducing the retest rate in CT examinations of pediatric patients with high radiation sensitivity. In this study, we investigated the possibility of applying DLIR to reduce artifacts caused by respiration or motion and obtain clinically useful images in pediatric chest CT examinations. Retrospective analysis was conducted on chest CT examination data of 43 children under the age of 7 from P Hospital in Gyeongsangnam-do. The images reconstructed using Filtered Back Projection (FBP), Adaptive Statistical Iterative Reconstruction (ASIR-50), and the deep learning algorithm TrueFidelity-Middle (TF-M) were compared. Regions of interest (ROI) were drawn on the right ascending aorta (AA) and back muscle (BM) in contrast-enhanced chest images, and noise (standard deviation, SD) was measured using Hounsfield units (HU) in each image. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS (ver. 22.0), analyzing the mean values of the three measurements with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results showed that the SD values for AA were FBP=25.65±3.75, ASIR-50=19.08±3.93, and TF-M=17.05±4.45 (F=66.72, p=0.00), while the SD values for BM were FBP=26.64±3.81, ASIR-50=19.19±3.37, and TF-M=19.87±4.25 (F=49.54, p=0.00). Post-hoc tests revealed significant differences among the three groups. DLIR using TF-M demonstrated significantly lower noise values compared to conventional reconstruction methods. Therefore, the application of the deep learning algorithm TrueFidelity-Middle (TF-M) is expected to be clinically valuable in pediatric chest CT examinations by reducing the degradation of image quality caused by respiration or motion.

Contamination of operator's clothing by aerosols during scaling (스케일링 시 에어로졸에 의한 술자의 의복 오염도)

  • Kang, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Ye-Jin;Min, Ji-Yeon;Park, Seul-Gi;Woo, Ju-Hee;Goong, Haw-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Dental Administration
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2017
  • Recently interest in infection control is increasing in hospitalsnfection control has become more important in the overall health care practiceental hospital also requires thorough infection control. There are various kinds of vectormedical clothing. Contaminated clothing of a hospital staff can be a vector of nosocomial infecton. actual case of nosocomial infecton caused by contaminated medical clothing, nursing students were measuring contamination levels of uniforms and pathogenic microorganism wdetected in front of the uniform and pocket. There is also a high risk of exposure to contamination in the dental hospital. We conducted a study to enhance awareness about infection and proper clothing management by comparing before and after contamination of clothing caused by aerosols produced during scaling. Subjects were scaling operators' uniforms in the department of dental hygiene, K University located in Daejeon. Before scaling, the uniform was sterilized by autoclavecaling was performed times in the same place (an average of 60 minutes per person, a total of 180 minutes). ive parts of the uniform (sleeves, chest, belly, thigh, edge of pants) contracted Rodak-plate for 15 seconds. After incubating the contacted Rodak-plate at 37℃ incubator, contamination levels by measuring the number of colonies. As a result, all parts increased number of colonies. ontamination order chestedge of pants thigh belly sleeves. Increase rate of colonies was also high in the order chest edge of pants thigh belly sleeves. This study showed seriousness of clothing contaminationcaused by aerol produced during scalingcontamination of clothing can be a path to nosocomial infecton. According to th study, infection control for clothing as well as dental instruments should be implemented and thorough infection control training needed for dental staff. In further researches, practical infection prevention supplementing clothing management method.