• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.65-82
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• 2021

Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.237-262
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• 2022

There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

• Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.206-225
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• 2012

General status of pediatric dentistry in Korea is to conduct vigorous academic activities and specialized medical care centering the Korean Association of Pediatric Dentistry (KAPD) that has about 1,000 pediatric dentists as members, pediatric dentistry departments of 11 Colleges of Dentistry, numbers of pediatric dentistry training institutions and private clinics specialized in children. From 1996, the accredited pediatric dentists were produced by the KAPD and from 2008, the state began to produce the accredited pediatric dentists. Since then, doctors with expertise in pediatric care had opened private clinics in addition to the university hospitals, it became the basis of a momentum to deepen the specialty of pediatric dentistry. The Dentistry community of Korea is going through rapid and profound changes recently, and the underlying reasons for such changes can be classified largely into a few categories: (1) Decreasing population and structural changes in population (2) Increase in numbers of dentists, (3) Changes in the pattern of dental diseases and (4) Changes in medical environment. In Korea, the children population in the age range of 0 ~ 14 years old had been decreased by 2 million in 2010 compared to that of 2000 due to reduction of birth rate. The current population of children in the age range of 0 ~ 4 years old in 2010 takes up 16.2% of the total population, but it is estimated that such percentage would decrease to 8.0% by 2050. Such percentage is largely behind the estimated mean global population of 19.6% by 2050. On the other hand, the number of dentists had been largely increased from 18,000 in 2000 to 25,000 in 2010. And it is estimated that the number will be increased to 41,000 by 2030. In addition, the specialized personnel of Pediatric dentistry had been shown as increased by 2.5 times during past 10 years. For the changes in the pattern of dental diseases, including dental caries, each df rate of 5 years old children and 12 years old children had been decreased by 21.9% and 16.7% respectively in 2010 compared to 2000. Each df Index also had been decreased by 2.5 teeth and 1.2 teeth respectively. The medical expenditure of Korea is less than that of OECD and more specifically, the expenditure from the National Health Plan is less than OECD but the expenditure covered by households is larger than OECD. These facts indicate that it is considered as requiring the coverage of the national health plan to be reinforced more in the future and as such reinforcement needs continuous promotion. In medical examination pattern of Pediatric dentistry, the preventive and corrective treatment were increased whereas the restorative treatment was decreased. It is considered that such change is caused from decrease of dental caries from activation of the prevention project at national level. For the restorative treatment, the restorations in use of dental amalgam, pre-existing gold crowning and endodontic treatment had been decreased in their proportion while the restorative treatment in use of composite resin had been increased. It is considered that such changes is caused by the change of demands from patients and family or guardians as they desired more aesthetic improvement along with socio-economic growth of Korean society. Due to such changes in dentistry, the pediatric dentistry in Korea also attempts to have changes in the patterns of medical examination as follows; It tends to implement early stage treatment through early diagnosis utilizing various diagnostic tools such as FOTI or QLF. The early stage dental caries so called white spot had been included in the subjects for dental care or management and in order to do so, the medical care guidelines essentially accompanied with remineralization treatment as well as minimally invasive treatment is being generalized gradually. Also, centering the Pediatric dentists, the importance of caries risk assessment is being recognized, in addition that the management of dental caries is being changed from surgical approach to internal medicinal approach. Recently, efforts began to emerge in order to increase the target patients to be managed by dentists and to expand the application scope of Pediatric dentistry along with through such changes. The interest and activities of Pediatric dentists which had been limited to the medical examination room so far, is now being expanded externally, as they put efforts for participating in the preventive policy making process of the community or the state, and to support the political theories. And also opinions are being collected into the direction that the future- oriented strategic political tasks shall be selected and researches as well as presentations on the theoretical rationale of such tasks at the association level.

• Journal of The Korean Dental Society of Anesthesiology
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.17-27
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• 2014

Background: Various medical emergency situations can occur during dental practices. Cardiac arrest is known to comprise approximately 1% of emergency situation. Thus, it is necessary for dentists to be able to perform cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) to increase the chance of saving patient's life in emergency situation. In this paper, we conducted a survey study to evaluate to what extent dentists actually understood CPR practice and if they had experience in handling emergency situations in practice. Method: The survey was done for members of the Korean Dental Society of Anesthesiology (KDSA), who had great interest in CPR and for whom survey-by-mail was convenient. We had selected 472 members of the KDSA with a dental license and whose office address and contact information were appropriate, and sent them a survey questionnaire by mail asking about the degree of their CPR understanding and if they had experience of handling emergency questions before. Statistical analyses -frequency analysis, chi-square test, ANOVA, and so on- were performed by use of IBM SPSS Statistics 19 for each question. Result: Among 472 people, 181 responded (38.4% response rate). Among the respondents were 134 male and 47 female dentists. Their average age was $40.4{\pm}8.4$. In terms of practice type, there were 123 private practitioners (68.0%), 20 professors (11.0%), 16 dentists-in-service (8.8%), 13 residents (specialist training) (7.2%) and 9 military doctors (5%). There were 125 dentists (69.1%) who were specialists or receiving training to be specialist, most of whom were oral surgeon (57, 31.5%) and pediatric dentists (56, 30.9%). There were 153 people (85.0%) who received CPR training before, and 65 of them (35.9%) were receiving regular training. When asked about the ratio of chest pressure vs mouth-to-mouth respiration when conducting CPR, 107 people (59.1%) answered 30:2. However, only 27.1% of them answered correctly for a question regarding CPR stages, C(Circulation)- A(Airway)- B(Breathing)- D(Defibrillation), which was defined in revised 2010 CPR practice guideline. Dentists who had experience of handling emergency situations in their practice were 119 (65.6%). The kinds of emergency situations they experienced were syncope (68, 37.6%), allergic reactions to local anesthetic (44, 24.3%), hyperventilation (43, 23.8%), seizure (25, 13.8%), hypoglycemia (15, 8.3%), breathing difficulty (14, 7.8%), cardiac arrest (11, 6.1%), airway obstruction (6, 3.3%), intake of foreign material and angina pectoris (4, 2.2%), in order of frequency. Most respondents answered that they handled the situation appropriately under the given emergency situation. In terms of emergency equipment they had blood pressure device (70.2%), pulse oximetry (69.6%), Bag-Valve-Mask (56.9%), emergency medicine (41.4%), intubation kit (29.8%), automated external defibrillator (23.2%), suction kit (19.3%) and 12 people (6.6%) did not have any equipment. In terms of confidence in handling emergency situation, with 1-10 point scale, their response was $4.86{\pm}2.41$ points. The average point of those who received regular training was $5.92{\pm}2.20$, while those who did not was $4.29{\pm}2.29$ points (P<0.001) Conclusion: The result showed they had good knowledge of CPR but the information they had was not up-to-date. Also, they were frequently exposed to the risk of emergency situation during their dental practice but the level of confidence in handling the emergency situation was intermediate. Therefore, regular training of CPR to prepare them for handling emergency situation is deemed necessary.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.179-197
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• 1991

선도환의 가격을 결정하는 접근방법에는 2차자산(derivative assets)이라는 선도계약의 기본특성에 기초한 재정거래(arbitrage)에 의한 방법이 가장 많이 이용되고 있다. 재정거래방식에는 선도환과 현물외환가격간의 상호관련성에 의하여 선도환가격을 이자율평가설(covered interest rate parity : CIRP), 즉 현물가격과 양국간의 이자율차이의 합으로 표시하고 있다. 특히 현물가격과 이자율은 모두 현재시점에서 의사결정자에게 알려져 있기때문에 선도환가격은 확실성하에서 결정되어 미래에 대한 예측이나 투자자의 위험회피도와는 관계없이 결정된다는 것이 특징이다. 이자율평가설에 관한 많은 실증연구는 거래 비용을 고려한 경우 현실적으로 적절하다고 보고 있다(Frenkel and Levich ; 1975, 1977). 다른 방법으로는 선도환의 미래예측기능에만 촛점을 맞추어 가격결정을 하는 투기, 예측접근방법(speculative efficiency approach : 이하에서는 SEA라 함)이 있다. 이 방법 중에서 가장 단순한 형태로 표시된 가설, 즉 '선도환가격은 미래기대현물가격과 같다'는 가설은 대부분의 실증분석에서 기각되고 있다. 이에 따라 SEA에서는 선도환가격이 미래에 대한 기대치뿐만 아니라 위험프리미엄까지 함께 포함하고 있다는 새로운 가설을 설정하고 이에 대한 실증분석을 진행한다. 이 가설은 이론적 모형에서 출발한 것이 아니기 때문에, 특히 기대치와 위험프레미엄 모두가 측정 불가능하다는 점으로 인하여 실증분석상 많은 어려움을 겪게 된다. 이러한 어려움을 피하기 위하여 많은 연구에서는 이자율평가설을 이용하여 선도환가격에 포함된 위험프레미엄에 대해 추론 내지 그 행태를 설명하려고 한다. 이자율평가설을 이용하여 분석모형을 설정하고 실증분석을 하는 것은 몇가지 근본적인 문제점을 내포하고 있다. 먼저, 앞서 지적한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 가정한다는 것은 SEA에서 주된 관심이 되는 미래예측이나 위험프레미엄과는 관계없이 선도가격이 결정 된다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 이자율평가설을 가정하여 설정된 분석모형은 선도환시장의 효율성이나 균형가격결정에 대한 시사점을 제공할 수 없다는 것을 의미한다. 즉, 가정한 시장효율성을 실증분석을 통하여 다시 검증하려는 것과 같다. 이러한 개념적 차원에서의 문제점 이외에도 실증분석에서의 추정상의 문제점 또한 존재한다. 대부분의 연구들이 현물자산의 균형가격결정모형에 이자율평가설을 추가로 결합하기 때문에 이러한 방법으로 설정한 분석모형은 그 기초가 되는 현물가격모형과는 달리 자의적 조작이 가능한 형태로 나타나며 이를 이용한 모수의 추정은 불필요한 편기(bias)를 가지게 된다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 실증분석상의 편기에 관한 문제점이 명확하고 구체적으로 나타나는 Mark(1985)의 실증연구를 재분석하고 실증자료를 통하여 위험회피도의 추정치에 편기가 발생하는 근본원인이 이자율평가설을 부적절하게 사용하는데 있다는 것을 확인 하고자 한다. 실증분석결과는 본문의 <표 1>에 제시되어 있으며 그 내용을 간략하게 요약하면 다음과 같다. (A) 실증분석모형 : 본 연구에서는 다기간 자산가격결정모형중에서 대표적인 Lucas (1978)모형을 직접 사용한다. $$1={\beta}\;E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;s_{t+1}}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (2) $U'(c_t)$와 $P_t$는 t시점에서의 소비에 대한 한계효용과 소비재의 가격을, $s_t$와 $f_t$는 외환의 현물과 선도가격을, $E_t$와 ${\beta}$는 조건부 기대치와 시간할인계수를 나타낸다. Mark는 위의 식 (2)를 이자율평가설과 결합한 다음의 모형 (4)를 사용한다. $$0=E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;(s_{t+1}-f_t)}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (4) (B) 실증분석의 결과 위험회피계수 ${\gamma}$의 추정치 : Mark의 경우에는 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값이 0에서 50.38까지 매우 큰 폭의 변화를 보이고 있다. 특히 비내구성제품의 소비량과 선도프레미엄을 사용한 경우 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값은 17.51로 비정상적으로 높게 나타난다. 반면에 본 연구에서는 추정치가 1.3으로 주식시장자료를 사용한 다른 연구결과와 비슷한 수준이다. ${\gamma}$추정치의 정확도 : Mark에서는 추정치의 표준오차가 최소 15.65에서 최대 42.43으로 매우 높은 반면 본 연구에서는 0.3에서 0.5수준으로 상대적으로 매우 정확한 추정 결과를 보여주고 있다. 모형의 정확도 : 모형 (4)에 대한 적합도 검증은 시용된 도구변수(instrumental variables)의 종류에 따라 크게 차이가 난다. 시차변수(lagged variables)를 사용하지 않고 현재소비와 선도프레미엄만을 사용할 경우 모형 (4)는 2.8% 또는 2.3% 유의수준에서 기각되는 반면 모형 (2)는 5% 유의수준에서 기각되지 않는다. 위와같은 실증분석의 결과는 앞서 논의한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 사용하여 균형자산가격 결정모형을 변형시킴으로써 불필요한 편기를 발생시킨다는 것을 명확하게 보여주는 것이다.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.268-276
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• 2018

BACKGROUND: In the month of January 2018, fine dust alerts and warnings were issued 36 times for $PM_{10}$ and 81 times for PM2.5. Air quality is becoming a serious issue nation-wide. Although interest in air-purifying plants is growing due to the controversy over the risk of chemical substances of regular air-purifying solutions, industrial spread of the plants has been limited due to their efficiency in air-conditioning perspective. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study aims to propose a vegetation-based bio-filter system that can assure total indoor air volume for the efficient application of air-purifying plants. In order to evaluate the quantitative performance of the system, time-series analysis was conducted on air-conditioning performance, indoor air quality, and comfort index improvement effects in a lecture room-style laboratory with 16 persons present in the room. The system provided 4.24 ACH ventilation rate and reduced indoor temperature by $1.6^{\circ}C$ and black bulb temperature by $1.0^{\circ}C$. Relative humidity increased by 24.4% and deteriorated comfort index. However, this seemed to be offset by turbulent flow created from the operation of air blowers. While $PM_{10}$ was reduced by 39.5% to $22.11{\mu}g/m^3$, $CO_2$ increased up to 1,329ppm. It is interpreted that released $CO_2$ could not be processed because light compensation point was not reached. As for the indoor comfort index, PMV was reduced by 83.6 % and PPD was reduced by 47.0% on average, indicating that indoor space in a comfort range could be created by operating vegetation-based bio-filters. CONCLUSION: The study confirmed that the vegetation-based bio-filter system is effective in lowering indoor temperature and $PM_{10}$ and has positive effects on creating comfortable indoor space in terms of PMV and PPD.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Dental Administration
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.31-37
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• 2017

Recently interest in infection control is increasing in hospitalsnfection control has become more important in the overall health care practiceental hospital also requires thorough infection control. There are various kinds of vectormedical clothing. Contaminated clothing of a hospital staff can be a vector of nosocomial infecton. actual case of nosocomial infecton caused by contaminated medical clothing, nursing students were measuring contamination levels of uniforms and pathogenic microorganism wdetected in front of the uniform and pocket. There is also a high risk of exposure to contamination in the dental hospital. We conducted a study to enhance awareness about infection and proper clothing management by comparing before and after contamination of clothing caused by aerosols produced during scaling. Subjects were scaling operators' uniforms in the department of dental hygiene, K University located in Daejeon. Before scaling, the uniform was sterilized by autoclavecaling was performed times in the same place (an average of 60 minutes per person, a total of 180 minutes). ive parts of the uniform (sleeves, chest, belly, thigh, edge of pants) contracted Rodak-plate for 15 seconds. After incubating the contacted Rodak-plate at 37℃ incubator, contamination levels by measuring the number of colonies. As a result, all parts increased number of colonies. ontamination order chestedge of pants thigh belly sleeves. Increase rate of colonies was also high in the order chest edge of pants thigh belly sleeves. This study showed seriousness of clothing contaminationcaused by aerol produced during scalingcontamination of clothing can be a path to nosocomial infecton. According to th study, infection control for clothing as well as dental instruments should be implemented and thorough infection control training needed for dental staff. In further researches, practical infection prevention supplementing clothing management method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.37-49
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• 1981

The purpose of the study is to find out the objective method of valuation on the forest stands through the analysis of logging costs that is positively related to timber production. The two forest (Amgog, Whangryoung), located nereby, but forest type, logging and skidding conditions being slightly different, were slected to carry out the study. The objective timber stumpage value were determined by investigating the appropriate timber production costs and profits of logging operations. The main result obtained in this study are as follows: 1. The rate of logging cost in consisting of timber market price is 13.15% in the area of Amgog logging place and 19.48% in Whangryoung. 2. The rate of the other production cost excluding logging cost is 15.36% in the area of Amgog logging place and 28.85% in Whangryoung. 3. The total rate of timber production cost in consisting of the market price is more than 28.51% in the area of Amgog logging place and 48.33% in Whangryoung, 4. Though the productivity of forest land is affected by the selection of tree species, tending, treatments and effective management of forest land, the more important problem is improvement of logging condition. 5. The rate of production cost in timber price is so high that we should endeavore to improve the productivity of labour and its quality, and minimize the difference of piece work per day in accordance to the various site condition. 6. Although the profit of forest industry is related to the period of recapturing investment, it is more closely related to the working condition, risk of investment and continuous change of social investment interest. 7. If the right variables which are related to the timber market, are objectively obtained, the stumpage value of mature forests can be objectively caculated by applying straight line discounting method or compound discounting method in caculating the stump to market price.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.83-98
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• 2012

In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.