• Title/Summary/Keyword: Interest Prediction

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Analyzing Spatial and Temporal Variation of Ground Surface Temperature in Korea (국내 지면온도의 시공간적 변화 분석)

  • Koo Min-Ho;Song Yoon-Ho;Lee Jun-Hak
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.39 no.3 s.178
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    • pp.255-268
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    • 2006
  • Recent 22-year (1981-2002) meteorological data of 58 Korea Meteorological Adminstration (KMA) station were analyzed to investigate spatial and temporal variation of surface air temperature (SAT) and ground surface temperature (GST) in Korea. Based on the KMA data, multiple linear regression (MLR) models, having two regression variables of latitude and altitude, were presented to predict mean surface air temperature (MSAT) and mean ground surface temperature (MGST). Both models showed a high accuracy of prediction with $R^2$ values of 0.92 and 0.94, respectively. The prediction of MGST is particularly important in the areas of geothermal energy utilization, since it is a critical parameter of input for designing the ground source heat pump system. Thus, due to a good performance of the MGST regression model, it is expected that the model can be a useful tool for preliminary evaluation of MGST in the area of interest with no reliable data. By a simple linear regression, temporal variation of SAT was analyzed to examine long-term increase of SAT due to the global warming and the urbanization effect. All of the KMA stations except one showed an increasing trend of SAT with a range between 0.005 and $0.088^{\circ}C/yr$ and a mean of $0.043^{\circ}C/yr$. In terms of meteorological factors controlling variation of GST, the effects of solar radiation, terrestrial radiation, precipitation, and snow cover were also discussed based on quantitative and qualitative analysis of the meteorological data.

Semantic Similarity Search using the Signature Tree (시그니처 트리를 사용한 의미적 유사성 검색 기법)

  • Kim, Ki-Sung;Im, Dong-Hyuk;Kim, Cheol-Han;Kim, Hyoung-Joo
    • Journal of KIISE:Databases
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.546-553
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    • 2007
  • As ontologies are used widely, interest for semantic similarity search is also increasing. In this paper, we suggest a query evaluation scheme for k-nearest neighbor query, which retrieves k most similar objects to the query object. We use the best match method to calculate the semantic similarity between objects and use the signature tree to index annotation information of objects in database. The signature tree is usually used for the set similarity search. When we use the signature tree in similarity search, we are required to predict the upper-bound of similarity for a node; the highest similarity value which can be found when we traverse into the node. So we suggest a prediction function for the best match similarity function and prove the correctness of the prediction. And we modify the original signature tree structure for same signatures not to be stored redundantly. This improved structure of signature tree not only reduces the size of signature tree but also increases the efficiency of query evaluation. We use the Gene Ontology(GO) for our experiments, which provides large ontologies and large amount of annotation data. Using GO, we show that proposed method improves query efficiency and present several experimental results varying the page size and using several node-splitting methods.

A Study on the stock price prediction and influence factors through NARX neural network optimization (NARX 신경망 최적화를 통한 주가 예측 및 영향 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Cheon, Min Jong;Lee, Ook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.572-578
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    • 2020
  • The stock market is affected by unexpected factors, such as politics, society, and natural disasters, as well as by corporate performance and economic conditions. In recent days, artificial intelligence has become popular, and many researchers have tried to conduct experiments with that. Our study proposes an experiment using not only stock-related data but also other various economic data. We acquired a year's worth of data on stock prices, the percentage of foreigners, interest rates, and exchange rates, and combined them in various ways. Thus, our input data became diversified, and we put the combined input data into a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) model. With the input data in the NARX model, we analyze and compare them to the original data. As a result, the model exhibits a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.08 as being the most accurate when we set 10 neurons and two delays with a combination of stock prices and exchange rates from the U.S., China, Europe, and Japan. This study is meaningful in that the exchange rate has the greatest influence on stock prices, lowering the error from RMSE 0.589 when only closing data are used.

Modeling of the Failure Rates and Estimation of the Economical Replacement Time of Water Mains Based on an Individual Pipe Identification Method (개별관로 정의 방법을 이용한 상수관로 파손율 모형화 및 경제적 교체시기의 산정)

  • Park, Su-Wan;Lee, Hyeong-Seok;Bae, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Kyu-Lee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.525-535
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    • 2009
  • In this paper a heuristic method for identifying individual pipes in water pipe networks to determine specific sections of the pipes that need to be replaced due to deterioration. An appropriate minimum pipe length is determined by selecting the pipe length that has the greatest variance of the average cumulative break number slopes among the various pipe lengths used. As a result, the minimum pipe length for the case study water network is determined as 4 m and a total of 39 individual pipe IDs are obtained. The economically optimal replacement times of the individual pipe IDs are estimated by using the threshold break rate of an individual pipe ID and the pipe break trends models for which the General Pipe Break Prediction Model(Park and Loganathan, 2002) that can incorporate the linear, exponential, and in-between of the linear and exponetial failure trends and the ROCOFs based on the modified time scale(Park et al., 2007) are used. The maximum log-likelihoods of the log-linear ROCOF and Weibull ROCOF estimated for the break data of a pipe are compared and the ROCOF that has a greater likelihood is selected for the pipe of interest. The effects of the social costs of a pipe break on the optimal replacement time are also discussed.

Research Suggestion for Disaster Prediction using Safety Report of Korea Government (안전신문고를 이용한 재난 예측 방법론 제안)

  • Lee, Jun;Shin, Jindong;Cho, Sangmyeong;Lee, Sanghwa
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2019
  • Anjunshinmungo (The safety e-report) has been in operation since 2014, and there are about 1 million cumulative reports by June 2019. This study analyzes the contents of more than 1 million safety newspapers reported at the present time of information age to determine how powerful and meaningful the people's voice and interest are. In particular, we are interested in forecasting ability. We wanted to check whether the report of the safety newspaper was related to possible disasters. To this end, the researchers received data reported in the safety newspaper as text and analyzed it by natural language analysis methodology. Based on this, the newspaper articles during the analysis of the safety newspaper were analyzed, and the correlation between the contents of the newspaper and the newspaper was analyzed. As a result, accidents occurred within a few months as the number of reports related to response and confirmation increased, and analyzing the contents of safety reports previously reported on social instability can be used to predict future disasters.

Effects of Ocean Outfall for Elimination of the Anoxic Layer in Youngsan River Estuary (영산강 하구언에서 저 산소 층의 제거를 위한 해양방류구의 효과)

  • Kwon, Seok-Jae;Cho, Yang-Ki;Seo, Uk-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.259-268
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    • 2005
  • There has been a growing interest in the elimination of anoxic layer in the Youngsan River Estuarybecause the anoxic water mass caused mainly by the inflow of fresh water from the sea wall might cause the mass reduction of benthos during summer. An ocean outfall system to discharge treated wastewater into sea water may be used as one of the effective and economical ways to eliminate the anoxic layer. The suitable ocean outfall design is generally proposed for the prediction of the buoyant jet behavior in the near field. The parameters including CTD and current data are taken into account f3r more reliable buoyant jet behavior calculation. One of the numerical models, CORMIX 1, approved by EPA is used herein for the prediction of the trajectorial variation of the cross-sectional salinity and DO concentration distribution on the calculated buoyant jet boundary according to the tidal periods. On the basis of the results, it is suggested that the single port outfall is a useful system to eliminate the anoxic layer. Proper strategies are also proposed for achieving desirable ambient conditions.

Prediction of Market Segment for Ptecticus tenebrifer Experience Programs in Accordance with Insect Experience Orientation (곤충체험 지향성에 따른 동애등에 체험 프로그램의 세분시장 예측)

  • Yang, Jong-Im;Hwang, Dae-Yong;Lee, Jung-Kyu
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.409-417
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    • 2015
  • This study aimed to summarize the characteristics of visitor experience for different market segments based on insect experience orientation in order to develop Ptecticus tenebrifer (Diptera: Stratiomyidae [Walker]) experience programs using local resources in the insect industrial market. A total of 325 effective samples were collected, and the attributes of insect experience orientation were connected to education, emotion, society, and ego. The survey respondents were students and parents of school-age children. Cluster analysis showed that the respondents were classified into two or three groups that were all found to be high in the prediction validity and discriminant analysis. Based on this result, the respondents were properly subdivided into three clusters for final analysis. Those three groups were: the passive group, the moderate group, and the active-orientation group. As a group aiming for various insect experiences, the active-orientation group consisted of parents whose children range in age from either 5 to 9 or from 10 to 14. This group was willing to spend 7 ~ 8,000 won on each experience program, and they preferred emotional experience programs. The passive and moderate orientation groups were most interested in having an educational experience. In order to increase people's interest in experience programs, education-oriented programs should be developed and promotional marketing should be reinforced. The results and implications of this study may be useful for the development of insect experience programs that can meet various visitor experience orientations as basic data that can contribute to the vitalization of the 6th industrialization plan for the insect industry.

A Study on the Prediction for Apartment Sales Price: Focusing on the Basic Property, Economy, Education, Culture and Transportation Properties in S city, Gyeonggi-do (아파트 매매가격 예측에 관한 연구: 경기도 S시 아파트 기본속성과 경제·교육·문화·교통 속성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Seonghun;Lee, Jung-Mok;Lee, Hyang-Seob;Yu, Su-Han;Shin, WooJin;Yu, Jong-Pil
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2020
  • In Korea, despite much interest in real estate, it is not easy to predict prices. Because apartments are both residential spaces and investment materials. Key figures affecting the price of apartments vary widely, and there are also regional characteristics. This study was conducted to derive the factors and characteristics that affect the sale price of apartments in S City, Gyeonggi-do. In general, people diagnose that better subway accessibility leads to higher apartment sales price. Nevertheless, in the case of S City, the price was slightly lower as it was closer to Line 1, but the higher the subway accessibility at Shinbundang Line, the higher the price. The five-year average of government bonds and the price were inversely related, and it was found to be proportional to the M2 balance and the price. The floor area ratio and the total number of parking lots had a great influence on the price, and the presence of department stores and discount marts within 1.5 km were the most important factors in the area of cultural aspect.

Regional Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Bayesian Multiple Regression (Bayesian 다중회귀분석을 이용한 저수량(Low flow) 지역 빈도분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.325-340
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    • 2008
  • This study employs Bayesian multiple regression analysis using the ordinary least squares method for regional low flow frequency analysis. The parameter estimates using the Bayesian multiple regression analysis were compared to conventional analysis using the t-distribution. In these comparisons, the mean values from the t-distribution and the Bayesian analysis at each return period are not significantly different. However, the difference between upper and lower limits is remarkably reduced using the Bayesian multiple regression. Therefore, from the point of view of uncertainty analysis, Bayesian multiple regression analysis is more attractive than the conventional method based on a t-distribution because the low flow sample size at the site of interest is typically insufficient to perform low flow frequency analysis. Also, we performed low flow prediction, including confidence interval, at two ungauged catchments in the Nakdong River basin using the developed Bayesian multiple regression model. The Bayesian prediction proves effective to infer the low flow characteristic at the ungauged catchment.

Principles for evaluating the clinical implementation of novel digital healthcare devices (첨단 디지털 헬스케어 의료기기를 진료에 도입할 때 평가원칙)

  • Park, Seong Ho;Do, Kyung-Hyun;Choi, Joon-Il;Sim, Jung Suk;Yang, Dal Mo;Eo, Hong;Woo, Hyunsik;Lee, Jeong Min;Jung, Seung Eun;Oh, Joo Hyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Medical Association
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    • v.61 no.12
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    • pp.765-775
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    • 2018
  • With growing interest in novel digital healthcare devices, such as artificial intelligence (AI) software for medical diagnosis and prediction, and their potential impacts on healthcare, discussions have taken place regarding the regulatory approval, coverage, and clinical implementation of these devices. Despite their potential, 'digital exceptionalism' (i.e., skipping the rigorous clinical validation of such digital tools) is creating significant concerns for patients and healthcare stakeholders. This white paper presents the positions of the Korean Society of Radiology, a leader in medical imaging and digital medicine, on the clinical validation, regulatory approval, coverage decisions, and clinical implementation of novel digital healthcare devices, especially AI software for medical diagnosis and prediction, and explains the scientific principles underlying those positions. Mere regulatory approval by the Food and Drug Administration of Korea, the United States, or other countries should be distinguished from coverage decisions and widespread clinical implementation, as regulatory approval only indicates that a digital tool is allowed for use in patients, not that the device is beneficial or recommended for patient care. Coverage or widespread clinical adoption of AI software tools should require a thorough clinical validation of safety, high accuracy proven by robust external validation, documented benefits for patient outcomes, and cost-effectiveness. The Korean Society of Radiology puts patients first when considering novel digital healthcare tools, and as an impartial professional organization that follows scientific principles and evidence, strives to provide correct information to the public, make reasonable policy suggestions, and build collaborative partnerships with industry and government for the good of our patients.