• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.15 no.12
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• pp.41-51
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• 2017

Purpose - This study proposes the impact of the US and Korean economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomy, and its effect on Korea. The economic policy uncertainty index of the US and Korea is used to represent the economic policy uncertainty on Korean economy. Research design, data, and methodology - In this paper, we collect the eight variables to find out the interrelationship among the US and Korean economic policy uncertainty index of the US and macroeconomic indicators during 1990 to 2016, and use Vector Error Correction Model. Result - The distribution industry stock index in Korea is influenced by the economic policy uncertainty index of the US rather than of Korea. All variables are related negatively to the economic policy uncertainty index of the US and Korea from Vector Error Correction Model. This study shows that the economic policy uncertainty index of the US and Korea has the dynamic relationships on the Korean economy. Conclusions - A higher economic policy uncertainty shows a greater economy recession of a country. Finally, the economic policy uncertainty of the Korea has an intensive impact on Korea economy. Particularly, the economic policy uncertainty of the US has a strong impact on distribution industry stock market in Korea.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.105-117
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• 2016

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.123-129
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• 2011

The restaurant franchise industry is one that could benefit significantly from the use of intranet technology, from its potential for improving communications between franchisors and franchisees, to providing easier inventory and ordering processes. However, there is a level of trepidation among potential users about whether the technology would improve their work performance. This study sought to examine the relationships between perceived uncertainty and perceived usefulness of intranet technology in the restaurant franchise industry. Through a review of available literature, 10 sub-dimensions of perceived uncertainty (Duncan, 1972) and six sub-dimensions of perceived usefulness (Davis, 1989) were derived. Canonical correlation analysis was used to examine the relationships between these concepts using data collected from 163 franchising restaurant managers in South Korea. Findings from the data analysis demonstrates two negative factors and one positive factor in perceived uncertainty that influence perceived usefulness, thus offering some implications of what to consider when implementing an intranet system in a restaurant franchise.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.71-82
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• 2015

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate risk price implied from the pricing kernel of Korean stock distribution market. Recently, it is considered that the quantitative easing programs of major developed countries are contributing to a reduction in global uncertainty caused by the 2007~2009 financial crisis. If true, the risk premium as compensation for global systemic risk or economic uncertainty should show a decrease. We examine whether the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market has declined in recent years, and attempt to provide practical implications for investors to manage their portfolios more efficiently, as well as academic implications. Research design, data and methodology - To estimate the risk price, we adopt a non-parametric method; the minimum norm pricing kernel method under the LOP (Law of One Price) constraint. For the estimation, we use 17 industry sorted portfolios provided by the KRX (Korea Exchange). Additionally, the monthly returns of the 17 industry sorted portfolios, from July 2000 to June 2014, are utilized as data samples. We set 120 months (10 years) as the estimation window, and estimate the risk prices from July 2010 to June 2014 by month. Moreover, we analyze correlation between any of the two industry portfolios within the 17 industry portfolios to suggest further economic implications of the risk price we estimate. Results - According to our results, the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market shows a decline over the period of July 2010 to June 2014 with statistical significance. During the period of the declining risk price, the average correlation level between any of the two industry portfolios also shows a decrease, whereas the standard deviation of the average correlation shows an increase. The results imply that the amount of systematic risk in the Korea stock distribution market has decreased, whereas the amount of industry-specific risk has increased. It is one of the well known empirical results that correlation and uncertainty are positively correlated, therefore, the declining correlation may be the result of decreased global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, less asset correlation enables investors to build portfolios with less systematic risk, therefore the investors require lower risk premiums for the efficient portfolio, resulting in the declining risk price. Conclusions - Our results may provide evidence of reduction in global systemic risk or economic uncertainty in the Korean stock distribution market. However, to defend the argument, further analysis should be done. For instance, the change of global uncertainty could be measured with funding costs in the global money market; subsequently, the relation between global uncertainty and the price of risk might be directly observable. In addition, as time goes by, observations of the risk price could be extended, enabling us to confirm the relation between the global uncertainty and the effect of quantitative easing. These topics are beyond our scope here, therefore we reserve them for future research.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society of Information Technology Applications Conference
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• 2002.06a
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• pp.123-135
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• 2002

Being in era of the digital economy, the influence of IT that effects on our economy is getting greater. Along with this effect, IT becomes origin of predominance of competition in every category of industry. Regarding new trends in industry, how companies mutate their IT skill become important factor. Every industry has their own color and environment of IT and uncertainty is different. For a company, It is most important to plan own strategy with strategic view on industrial environment. The idea of this study is to find the difference of Skill Requirement and Job Requirement in every category of industry by find what are the most important jobs and skills of IT in every industry and to analyze the results. The second idea is to find what kinds of skill are required in every sector of job. Base on the analyzed data, we classified the uncertainty in every industry by Duncan′s "classification of environment", and extracted some pattern within the skill and job in industry that found in our study by applying OIP model. We set skills by categorized curriculum of specialized IT education center, then with IT specialist, checked and retouched the results and surveyed with IT people in every industry on skill set and job of IT. The summery of this study is as follow : 1. Importance of IT skill is differentiated in each industry. It shows that IT skills, which requested in a field are differentiated by uncertainty of environment that comes from the character of industry. 2. Importance of IT job differs by the fields of industry. It shows as IT skills are differentiated, the importance of job that apply these skills is differentiated. 3. As the character of each job that work on is diversified, the importance of skills are diversified in each field of jobs. The Result of this study can give the idea to who designs curriculum and builds educational contentsthat would fulfill the need of fields. Also this study would be meaningful that it opens the field of study of skill requirement in Korea.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.502-506
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• 2013

The cash flow forecasting is normally done by contractors in construction industry at early stages of the project for contractual decisions. The decision making in such situations involve uncertainty about future cash flows and assessment of working capital requirements gains more importance in projects constrained by cash. The traditional approach to assess the working capital requirements is deterministic in and neglects the uncertainty. This paper presents an alternate approach to assessment of working capital requirements for contractor based on fuzzy set theory by considering the uncertainty and ambiguity involved at payment periods. Statistical methods are used to deal with the uncertainty for working capital curves. Membership functions of the fuzzy sets are developed based on these statistical measures. Advantage of fuzzy peak working capital requirements is demonstrated using peak working capital requirements curves. Fuzzy peak working capital requirements curves are compared with deterministic curves and the results are analyzed. Fuzzy weighted average methodology is proposed for the assessment of peak working capital requirements.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.401-409
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• 2023

Oscillating water column (OWC) type wave power generator system is a power generation system that uses wave energy, a sustainable and renewable energy source. Irregular cycles and wave heights act as factors that make it difficult to secure generation efficiency of the wave power generator system. Recently, research for improving power generation efficiency is being conducted by applying digital twin technology to OWC type wave energy converter system. However, digital twin using sensor data can predict erroneous performance due to uncertainty in the sensor data. Therefore, this study proposes an uncertainty analysis method for sensor data which is used in digital twin to secure the reliability of digital twin prediction results. Uncertainty quantification considering sensor data characteristics and future uncertainty information according to uncertainty propagation were derived mathematically, and confidence interval estimation was performed based on the proposed method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.137-146
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• 2016

In recent years, business environment is faced with multi uncertainty that have not been suffered in the past. As supply chain is getting expanded and longer, the flow of information, material and production is also being complicated. It is well known that development service industry using application software has various uncertainty in random events such as supply and demand fluctuation of developer's capcity, project effective date after winning a contract, manpower cost (or revenue), subcontract cost (or purchase), and overrun due to developer's skill-level. This study intends to social contribution through attempts to optimize enterprise's goal by supply chain management platform to balance demand and supply and stochastic programming which is basically applied in order to solve uncertainty considering economical and operational risk at solution supplier. In Particular, this study emphasizes to determine allocation of internal and external manpower of developers using S&OP (Sales & Operations Planning) as monthly resource input has constraint on resource's capability that shared in industry or task. This study is to verify how Stochastic Programming such as Markowitz's MV (Mean Variance) model or 2-Stage Recourse Model is flexible and efficient than Deterministic Programming in software enterprise field by experiment with process and data from service industry which is manufacturing software and performing projects. In addition, this study is also to analysis how profit and labor input plan according to scope of uncertainty is changed based on Pareto Optimal, then lastly it is to enumerate limitation of the study extracted drawback which can be happened in real business environment and to contribute direction in future research considering another applicable methodology.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2000.06a
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• pp.1675-1680
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• 2000

Recently the uncertainty has been made rapid progress in various fields of industry but the uncertainty measurement method of acoustical test (i.e. Insertion loss, Absorption ratio, Transmission loss etc,) hasn't been established. In this study, the uncertainty of measurement method for ducted silencers is carried out according to ISO 7235. The standard uncertainty factors are composed of sound pressure level, microphone sensitivity and pistonphone calibration in this measurement. Sound pressure level is type A evaluation of uncertainty, microphone sensitivity and pistonphone calibration are type B evaluation of uncertainty. The combined standard uncertainty is calculated by two type evaluation. The expanded uncertainty is expressed by the combined standard uncertainty multiply k value which is yield the effective degree of freedom.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.5-11
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• 2002

This paper describes the methods for calibration and evaluation of the relative expanded uncertainty of a multi-axis force/moment sensor. In order to use the sensor in the industry, it should be calibrated and its relative expanded uncertainty should be also evaluated. At present, the confidence of the sensor is shown with only interference error. However, it is not accurate, because the calibrated multi-axis force/moment sensor has an interference error as well as a reproducibility error of the sensor, etc. In this paper, the methods fur calibration and for evaluation of the relative expanded uncertainty of a multi-axis force/moment sensor are newly proposed. Also, a six-axis force/moment sensor is calibrated with the proposed calibration method and the relative expanded uncertainty is evaluated using the proposed uncertainty evaluation method and the calibration results. It is thought that the methods fur calibration and evaluation of the uncertainty can be usually used for calibration and evaluation of the uncertainty of the multi-axis force/moment sensor.