• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.407-407
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• 2019

According to Asian Development Bank report Pakistan is among water scarce countries. Climate scenario on the basis IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) revealed that annual mean temperature of Pakistan from year 2010-2019 was $17C^o$ which will rise up to $21C^o$ at the end of this century, similarly almost 10% decrease of annual rainfall is expected at the end of the century. It is a changing task in underdeveloped countries like Pakistan to meet the water demands of rapidly increasing population in a changing climate. While many studies have tackled scarcity and stream flow forecasting of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan, very few of them are related to socio-economic and climate change impact on sustainable water management of UIB. This study investigates the pattern of current and future surface water availability for various demand sites (e.g. domestic, agriculture and industrial) under different socio-economic and climate change scenarios in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan for a period of 2010 to 2050. A state-of-the-art planning tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) is used to analyze the dynamics of current and future water demand. The stream flow data of five sub catchment (Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shoyke) and entire UIB were calibrated and validated for the year of 2006 to 2011 using WEAP. The Nash Sutcliffe coefficient and coefficient of determination is achieved ranging from 0.63 to 0.92. The results indicate that unmet water demand is likely to increase severe threshold and the external driving forces e.g. socio-economic and climate change will create a gap between supply and demand of water.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.372-372
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• 2021

The agriculture sector plays a vital role in the economy of Pakistan by contributing about 20% of the GDP and 42% of the labor force. Rivers from the top of Himalayas are the major water resources for this agriculture sector. Recent reports have found that Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable country to climate change that can cause water scarcity which is a big challenge to the communities. Previous studies have investigated the impact of climate change on the trend of streamflow, but the understanding of seasonal change in the regional hydrologic regimes remained limited. Therefore, a better understanding of the seasonal hydrologic change will help cope with the future water scarcity issue. In this study, we used the daily stream flow data for four major river basins of Pakistan (Chenab, Indus, Jhelum and Kabul) over 1962 - 2019. Utilizing these daily river discharge data, we calculated the winter-spring center time and the summer-autumn center times. In this study Winter-spring center time (WSCT) is defined as the day of the calendar year during which half of the total six months (Jan-Jun) discharge volume was exceeded. Results show that the four river basins experienced a statistically significant decreasing trend of WSCT, that is the center time keeps coming earlier compared to the past. We further used the Climate Research Unit (CRU) climate data comprising of the average temperature and precipitation for the four basins and found that the increasing average temperature value causes the early melting of the snow covers and glaciers that resulted in the decreasing of 1^st center time value by 4 to 8 days. The findings of this study informs an alarming situation for the agriculture sector specifically.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.116-116
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• 2020

Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is a highly mountainous and remote region covering 45% of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) with around 1.8 million population is vulnerable to climate change and socio-economic growth makes water resources management and planning more complex. To understand the water scarcity in the region this study is carried out to project water supply and demand for agricultural and domestic sector under various climate-socio-economic scenarios in five sub catchments of GB i.e., Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok for a period of 2015 to 2050 using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. For climate change scenario ensembled mean of three global climate models (GCMs) was used under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and agricultural Land Development (LD) scenarios were combined with climate scenarios to develop climate-socio-economic scenario. Our results indicate that the climate change and socio-economic growth would create a gap between supply and demand of water in the region, with socio-economic growth (e.g. agricultural and population) as dominant external factor that would reduce food production and increase poverty level in the region. Among five catchments only Astore and Gilgit will face shortfall of water while Shyoke would face shortfall of water only under agricultural growth scenarios. We also observed that the shortfall of water in response to climate-socio-economic scenarios is totally different over two water deficient catchments due to its demography and geography. Finally, to help policy makers in developing regional water resources and management policies we classified five sub catchments of UIB according to its water deficiency level.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.343-354
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• 2019

The present study demonstrates the application of seismic petrophysics and amplitude versus angle (AVA) forward modeling to identify the reservoir fluids, discriminate their saturation levels and natural gas composition. Two case studies of the Lumshiwal Formation (mainly sandstone) of the Lower Cretaceous age have been studied from the Kohat Sub-basin and the Middle Indus Basin of Pakistan. The conventional angle-dependent reflection amplitudes such as P converted P ($R_{PP}$) and S ($R_{PS}$), S converted S ($R_{SS}$) and P ($R_{SP}$) and newly developed AVA attributes (${\Delta}R_{PP}$, ${\Delta}R_{PS}$, ${\Delta}R_{SS}$ and ${\Delta}R_{SP}$) are analyzed at different gas saturation levels in the reservoir rock. These attributes are generated by taking the differences between the water wet reflection coefficient and the reflection coefficient at unknown gas saturation. Intercept (A) and gradient (B) attributes are also computed and cross-plotted at different gas compositions and gas/water scenarios to define the AVO class of reservoir sands. The numerical simulation reveals that ${\Delta}R_{PP}$, ${\Delta}R_{PS}$, ${\Delta}R_{SS}$ and ${\Delta}R_{SP}$ are good indicators and able to distinguish low and high gas saturation with a high level of confidence as compared to conventional reflection amplitudes such as P-P, P-S, S-S and S-P. In A-B cross-plots, the gas lines move towards the fluid (wet) lines as the proportion of heavier gases increase in the Lumshiwal Sands. Because of the upper contacts with different sedimentary rocks (Shale/Limestone) in both wells, the same reservoir sand exhibits different response similar to AVO classes like class I and class IV. This study will help to analyze gas sands by using amplitude based attributes as direct gas indicators in further gas drilling wells in clastic successions.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.165-176
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• 2007

티벳고원의 서쪽, 중부 카라코람의 인더스 강이 지나는 Skardu 근처에서 발견된 약 1.3km의 두께를 보이는 Bunthang 시퀀스의 절대 연대측정을 우주 기원 동위원소인 $^{10}Be$과 $^{26}Al$의 비를 이용해서 측정했으며 약 2백 65만년전에 급격하게 퇴적된 것으로 확인되었다. 이러한 퇴적시기는 지금까지 발견된 가장 오래된 직접적인 빙하활동의 증거로서 이전의 고지자기 연구와도 일치한다. Bunthang 시퀀스는 아래에서부터 빙퇴석, 호성 퇴적물, 하천 퇴적물 그리고 다시 호성 퇴적물로 이루어지며 어떠한 단층운동의 증거도 발견되지 않는 점으로 미루어 볼 때 분지의 생성은 빙하의 하방침식에 의해서 만들어졌으며 빙하의 후퇴와 더불어 proglacial과 paraglacial 프로세스에 의해서 생성된 것으로 판단된다. 이 지역에 있어서 신생대의 활발한 지반 활동은 인더스 강의 구배를 변형시킴으로써 연구지역과 같은 국지적인 호소퇴적층의 활발한 퇴적을 용이하게 하였으며 또한 지반운동과 빙하의 침식에 의한 사면의 불안정성은 이러한 국지적 퇴적 작용을 더욱 촉발시켰을 것으로 판단된다. 이전의 연구와 본 연구의 결과로써 지난 제4기 동안 빙하의 활동이 약해진 것으로 보건데 지난 마지막 빙기 최성기를 정점으로 티벳고원에 커다란 빙상이 존재했다는 가설은 틀린 것으로 보인다. 이 지역에서 제4기 동안의 빙하 활동의 축소는 희말라야 산맥과 카라코람 산맥 중심의 급격한 융기로 인해 Indian monsoon의 유입이 줄어든 것에서 기인한 것으로 추측된다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.137-137
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• 2021

In this study we aimed to enhance streamflow prediction skill of a land-surface hydrological model, WRF-Hydro, over one of the snow dominated catchments lies in Himalayan mountainous range, Astore. To assess the response of the Himalayan river flows to climate change is complex due to multiple contributors: precipitation, snow, and glacier melt. WRF-Hydro model with default glacier module lacks generating streamflow in summer period but recently developed WRF-Hydro-CROCUS model overcomes this issue by melting snow/ice from the glaciers. We showed that by implementing WRF-Hydro-CROCUS model over Astore the results were significantly improved in comparison to WRF-Hydro with default glacier module. To constraint the model with the observed streamflow we chose 17 sensitive parameters of WRF-Hydro, which include groundwater parameters, surface runoff parameters, channel parameters, soil parameters, vegetation parameters and snowmelt parameters. We used Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) method to calibrate the daily streamflow with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) being greater than 0.7 both in calibration (2009-2010) and validation (2011-2013) period. Based on the number of iterations per parameter, we found that the parameters related to channel and runoff process are most sensitive to streamflow. The attempts to address the responses of the streamflows to climate change are still very weak and vague especially northwest Himalayan Part of Pakistan and this study is one of a few successful applications of process-based land-surface hydrologic model over this mountainous region of UIB that can be utilized to have an in-depth understanding of hydrological responses of climate change.