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Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

Evaluation of Hemodynamic Failure with Acetazolamide Challenged $^{123}I-IMP$ Brain SEPCT and PET (PET과 Acetazolamide 부하 $^{123}I-IMP$ 뇌혈류 SPECT를 이용한 혈역학적 부전의 평가)

  • Chun, Kyung-Ah;Cho, In-Ho;Won, Kyu-Jang;Lee, Hyung-Woo;Hayashida, Kohei
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.94-102
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Cerebral blood flow (CBF) reactivity to acetazolamide (ACZ) is useful to select patients with hemodynamic failure. However, it is still a matter of speculation that varying degrees of regional CBF increases after ACZ administration represent the severity or stage of regional hemodynamic failure as assessed by positron emission tomography (PET). We studied to elucidate whether ACZ challenge $^{123}I-IMP$ brain single photon emission tomography (SPECT) can accurately grade the seventy of regional hemodynamic failure. Materials and Methods: Eighteen patients (M: 16, F: 2, average age: 61 years) with unilateral occlusive disease of the internal carotid artery or the trunk of the middle cerebral artery (MCA). Patients undewent $^{123}I-IMP$ brain SPECT study with acetazolamide challenge and PET study was carried out within 2 weeks before and after SPECT study. Five healthy volunteers with a mean age of 48 years (range: 28-73 yr, M: 3, F: 2) underwent PET studies to determine normal values. In SPECT study, an asymmetry index (Al)-the percentage of radioactivity of region of interest (ROI) in the occlusive cerebrovascular lesion to the contralateral homologous ROI-was used for numerical evaluation of relative $^{123}I-IMP$ distribution. In PET study, regional CBF, oxygen extraction fraction (OEF), cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen ($CMRO_2$) and cerebral blood volume (CBV) values were measured with $^{15}O-labeled$ gas inhalation method and the values were used for comparison with Al (Al during acetazolamide challenge-Al of basal study) on the SPECT study. ROls were classified by severity into three groups (normal, stage I and stage II). Results: Mean values of Al in areas with normal, stage I and stage II hemodynamic failure were $6.25{\pm}7.77%\;(n=107),\;-10.38{\pm}10.41%\:(n=117)\;and\;13.30{\pm}10.51%\;(n=140)$, respectively. Al significantly differed with each groups (p<0.05). Correlation between Al and CBF, OEF and CBV/CBF in hemisphere with occlusive cerebrovascular lesion was 0.20 (p<0.01), -0.28 (p<0.01) and -0.28 (p<0.01), respectively. Conclusion: We concluded that $^{123}I-IMP$ brain SPECT with acetazolamide challenge could determine the severity ad stage of regional hemodynamic failure as assessed by PET.

The Effects of Mixtures with Ginseng Radix rubra and Paeonia Radix on Endurance Exercise Performance (홍삼과 백작약의 혼합물 투여가 지구성 운동수행능력에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Seung-Kyum;Kim, Chang-Ju;Kim, Hong;Lim, Yong-Taek;Yoon, Sung-Jin
    • Journal of Ginseng Research
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the improvement of endurance exercise performance by taking mixtures of Ginseng Radix rubra and Paeonia Radix. For this purpose, time of exhaustion, $V0_2max$, heart rate, and blood lactate was used as improvement index. The experiments were executed to thirty eight men in their twenties. They were randomly assigned into four groups[CG: control group(n=10), IG: ingestion mixtures group(n=9), TPG: ingestion placebo+training group(n=9), TIG: ingestion mixtures+training group(n=10)]. IG and TIG took mixtures of Ginseng Radix rubra and Paeonia Radix for four weeks, and TPG and TIG exercised once a day, three times a week, exercised for 25 minutes during the first week and added 2 minutes by week during four weeks up to 75% of their maximum heart rate. Time of exhaustion showed statistically significant increase for IG, TPG and TIG. TIG had the longest time of exhaustion and IG the shortest. In case of $VO_2max$, no statistically significant change was found among four groups. However, IG, TPG, TIG showed small increase in $VO_2max$. Similarly, no significant change was found for heart rate in rest even though TIG and TPG appear to have decreasing trend. For maximum heart rate, no significant change was found either, but IG, TPG and TIG showed increase. In case of blood lactate from rest to exercise until 18 minutes, no group had significant decrease. In case of blood lactate in exhaustion, IG, TPG and TIG had significant increase. Blood lactate recovery volume at 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 20 minutes showed no significant results for all four groups, but TIG and TPG had a small increase.

Experimental Study for the Development of the Mixing Ratio as a Compaction Pile (다짐말뚝 재료로서 쇄석과 저회의 적정 혼합비 도출을 위한 실험적 연구)

  • Leem, Hansoo;Kim, Sunkon;Lee, Jooho;Chun, Byungsik
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 2012
  • In the case of using the soil materials created by cutting in-situ ground directly without adjusting particle size, it is recommendable to seek the compaction property or material constant required for filling design or density control through indoor test, and many studies on this subject have been carried out during that time. The researches conducted during that time, however, were focused on the mixed materials with different diameters that exist in a natural condition. There has been no study conducted using coal fly ash that is by-product of the thermal power plant that is actively considered as the building materials. Therefore, this study was aimed at implementing compaction test and examining the basic engineering property in order to explore the influence of crushing the particles through compacting the admixture of crushed stone and coal fly ash produced from thermal power plant on its engineering property, and then the impact of the admixture volume of each material on compaction property and material property by conducting the One-Dimensional Compression Test. As result of compaction test, the optimum moisture ratio of coal fly ash was shown to be approx. 23%. As result of compaction test in accordance with the mixed ratio of coal fly ash and crushed stone under the same compaction energy and moisture ratio, dry unit weight tended to drop when the mixed ratio of coal fly ash exceeded 30%, while it reached approx. $1.81gf/cm^3$ when the mixed ratio was 30%. As result of One-Dimensional Compression Test in accordance with the mixed ratio of crushed stone and coal fly ash, the change in void ratio by particle crushing was at the highest level in the case of coal fly ash 100%, while the lowest level in the case of crushed stone 100%. In the case of mixed materials of crushed stone and coal fly ash, compression index was at the lowest level in case of coal fly ash 30%, and therefore this ratio of mixed material was judged to be the most stable from an engineering aspect.

Development of the Risk Evaluation Model for Rear End Collision on the Basis of Microscopic Driving Behaviors (미시적 주행행태를 반영한 후미추돌위험 평가모형 개발)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong;Song, Ki-Han;Park, Chang-Ho;Chon, Kyung-Soo;Kho, Seung-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2004
  • A model and a measure which can evaluate the risk of rear end collision are developed. Most traffic accidents involve multiple causes such as the human factor, the vehicle factor, and the highway element at any given time. Thus, these factors should be considered in analyzing the risk of an accident and in developing safety models. Although most risky situations and accidents on the roads result from the poor response of a driver to various stimuli, many researchers have modeled the risk or accident by analyzing only the stimuli without considering the response of a driver. Hence, the reliabilities of those models turned out to be low. Thus in developing the model behaviors of a driver, such as reaction time and deceleration rate, are considered. In the past, most studies tried to analyze the relationships between a risk and an accident directly but they, due to the difficulty of finding out the directional relationships between these factors, developed a model by considering these factors, developed a model by considering indirect factors such as volume, speed, etc. However, if the relationships between risk and accidents are looked into in detail, it can be seen that they are linked by the behaviors of a driver, and depending on drivers the risk as it is on the road-vehicle system may be ignored or call drivers' attention. Therefore, an accident depends on how a driver handles risk, so that the more related risk to and accident occurrence is not the risk itself but the risk responded by a driver. Thus, in this study, the behaviors of a driver are considered in the model and to reflect these behaviors three concepts related to accidents are introduced. And safe stopping distance and accident occurrence probability were used for better understanding and for more reliable modeling of the risk. The index which can represent the risk is also developed based on measures used in evaluating noise level, and for the risk comparison between various situations, the equivalent risk level, considering the intensity and duration time, is developed by means of the weighted average. Validation is performed with field surveys on the expressway of Seoul, and the test vehicle was made to collect the traffic flow data, such as deceleration rate, speed and spacing. Based on this data, the risk by section, lane and traffic flow conditions are evaluated and compared with the accident data and traffic conditions. The evaluated risk level corresponds closely to the patterns of actual traffic conditions and counts of accident. The model and the method developed in this study can be applied to various fields, such as safety test of traffic flow, establishment of operation & management strategy for reliable traffic flow, and the safety test for the control algorithm in the advanced safety vehicles and many others.

Improved Breast Irradiation Techniques Using Multistatic Fields or Three Dimensional Universal Compensators (Multistatic Field또는 3차원 공용보상체를 사용한 유방의 방사선 조사법의 평가)

  • Han Youngyih;Cho Jae Ho;Park Hee Chul;Chu Sung Sil;Suh Chang-Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.24-33
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : In order to improve dose homogeneity and to reduce acute toxicity in tangential whole breast radiotherapy, we evaluated two treatment techniques using multiple static fields or universal compensators. Materials and Methods : 1) Multistatic field technique : Using a three dimensional radiation treatment planning system, Adac Pinnacle 4.0, we accomplished a conventional wedged tangential plan. Examining the isodose distributions, a third field which blocked overdose regions was designed and an opposing field was created by using an automatic function of RTPS. Weighting of the beams was tuned until an ideal dose distribution was obtained. Another pair of beams were added when the dose homogeneity was not satisfactory. 2) Universal compensator technique : The breast shapes and sizes were obtained from the CT images of 20 patients who received whole breast radiation therapy at our institution. The data obtained were averaged and a pair of universal physical compensators were designed for the averaged data. DII (Dose Inhomogeneity Index : percentage volume of PTV outside $95\~105\%$ of the prescribed dose) $D_{max}$ (the maximum point dose in the PTV) and isodose distributions for each technique were compared. Results : The multistatic field technique was found to be superior to the conventional technique, reducing the mean value of DII by $14.6\%$ (p value<0.000) and the $D_{max}$ by $4.7\%$ (p value<0.000). The universal compensator was not significantly superior to the conventional technique since it decreased $D_{max}$ by $0.3\%$ (p value=0.867) and reduced DII by $3.7\%$ (p value=0.260). However, it decreased the value of DII by maximum $18\%$ when patients' breast shapes fitted in with the compensator geometry. Conclusion : The multistatic field technique is effective for improving dose homogeneity for whole breast radiation therapy and is applicable to all patients, whereas the use of universal compensators is effective only in patients whose breast shapes fit inwith the universal compensator geometry, and thus has limited applicability.

An Analysis of Suitable site of Constructed Wetland using High Resolution Satellite Image and GIS in Kyoung-An Stream (고해상도 위성영상과 GIS를 이용한 인공습지 적지 분석 -경안천을 대상으로-)

  • Koh, Chang-Hwan;Jin, Do;Ha, Sung-Ryong
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2008
  • Various human activities such as the Urbanization and Industrialization are estimated the main factors to pollute the stream. Now days, numerous studies are carried out for managing non-point sources which have un-effect on water quality of streams by land-use and livestock. In case of Korea, a matter of concern that the management of Pal dang reservoir - the main water resources of the national capital region - has been occurring. Especially, large-scale constructed-wetlands are planned and constructed at the end of Kyoung-an stream. Additionally a lot of sewage treatment plants are newly installed and extended in this watershed. According to these efforts, water quality of Kyoung-an stream is predicted that would be improved. But the more detail and scientific analysis should be carried out for the water quality improvement, because, existing water quality improvement projects are not involved to analyze root of water quality deterioration and improvement plans. Therefore, this study aims to select suitable areas for constructed-wetlands and to calculate size of the constructed-wetlands for water quality improvement in Kyoung-an stream through the geographical pollutant distribution analysis and land-use pattern analysis by high resolution satellite image and suitable area analysis of constructed-wetlands by GIS(Geographic information system). The progress of this study is (1) to select maximum pollutant loaded area by geographical analysis based on water quality data, (2) to analyze land-use patterns using high resolution satellite image, (3) to select suitable areas of constructed-wetlands, (4) to calculate area and volume of chosen constructed-wetlands using GIS. Basically, sizes of constructed-wetlands are induced through the constructed-wetlands design index based on treatment ratio(provided by Korea Water Resources Corporation). As a result of this study, two areas are selected to construct constructed-wetlands. One of the area was $127,586m^2$ near by Yong-in sewage treatment plant, and the other area was $1,647m^2$ near by Ju-buk stream and Dae-dae stream.

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Development of a TBM Advance Rate Model and Its Field Application Based on Full-Scale Shield TBM Tunneling Tests in 70 MPa of Artificial Rock Mass (70 MPa급 인공암반 내 실대형 쉴드TBM 굴진실험을 통한 굴진율 모델 및 활용방안 제안)

  • Kim, Jungjoo;Kim, Kyoungyul;Ryu, Heehwan;Hwan, Jung Ju;Hong, Sungyun;Jo, Seonah;Bae, Dusan
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.305-313
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    • 2020
  • The use of cable tunnels for electric power transmission as well as their construction in difficult conditions such as in subsea terrains and large overburden areas has increased. So, in order to efficiently operate the small diameter shield TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine), the estimation of advance rate and development of a design model is necessary. However, due to limited scope of survey and face mapping, it is very difficult to match the rock mass characteristics and TBM operational data in order to achieve their mutual relationships and to develop an advance rate model. Also, the working mechanism of previously utilized linear cutting machine is slightly different than the real excavation mechanism owing to the penetration of a number of disc cutters taking place at the same time in the rock mass in conjunction with rotation of the cutterhead. So, in order to suggest the advance rate and machine design models for small diameter TBMs, an EPB (Earth Pressure Balance) shield TBM having 3.54 m diameter cutterhead was manufactured and 19 cases of full-scale tunneling tests were performed each in 87.5 ㎥ volume of artificial rock mass. The relationships between advance rate and machine data were effectively analyzed by performing the tests in homogeneous rock mass with 70 MPa uniaxial compressive strength according to the TBM operational parameters such as thrust force and RPM of cutterhead. The utilization of the recorded penetration depth and torque values in the development of models is more accurate and realistic since they were derived through real excavation mechanism. The relationships between normal force on single disc cutter and penetration depth as well as between normal force and rolling force were suggested in this study. The prediction of advance rate and design of TBM can be performed in rock mass having 70 MPa strength using these relationships. An effort was made to improve the application of the developed model by applying the FPI (Field Penetration Index) concept which can overcome the limitation of 100% RQD (Rock Quality Designation) in artificial rock mass.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

Effects of Ethylacetate Fraction of Plantain (Plantago asiatica L.) on Experimentally-Induced Gastric Mucosal Damage and Gastric Ulcers in Rats (질경이가 실험적으로 유발된 흰쥐의 위염 및 위궤양에 미치는 영향)

  • 원영준;나명순;이명렬
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.659-667
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    • 2004
  • Plantain has been used for antidiarrhea, antihemorrhage and the remedy of indigestion. Plantain was extracted with ethanol and fractionated systemically with n-hexane, chloroform, ethylacetate (EtOAC) and n-butanol. Antioxidant index (AI was expressed as induction period of oil containing various fractions/induction period of oil of 600 ppm) of EtOAC fraction was the highest among fractions in vitro. The protective effects of the EtOAC fraction of plantain (PE) administered 1 mL orally or intraduodenally on experimentally induced gastritis, gastric ulcer and gastric secretion were evaluated in rats. Sprague-Dawley rats weighing 250∼300 g were divided into 4 groups; negative control group (CON), PE 200 mg/kg treated group (PEL), PE 400 mg/kg treated group (PEH) and positive control group (cimetidine 100 mg/kg-CMT or omeprazol 100 mg/kg treated group-OMT), respectively, PE significantly suppressed HCl-ethanol induced gastric lesions and indomethacin-induced gastric ulcers (administered subcutaneouly) in rats. Specially PE 400 mg/kg showed significantly inhibitory effect, which was more potent than that of 100 mg/kg of commercial drug, cimetidine, and elevated an inhibitory effect to be close to the level in inhibitory ratio of omeprazol administered group in Shay's ucler. On gastric secretion in pylorus ligated rat, PE 200 mg/kg and 400 mg/kg decreased the gastric volume and acid output, but did not show an apparent effect on pepsin activity. In addition, PE 400 mg/kg depressed gastric ulcers induced by water immersion stress and duodenal ulcers induced by cysteamine administered subcutaneouly. These results suggest that the ethylacetate fraction of plantain can be used in prevention and treatment of experimentally induced gastric mucosal damage and ulcers.