• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.73-89
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• 2021

The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.

• Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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• v.8
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• pp.129-138
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• 1990

This study investigated the relationship between the cutflow of rural population and agricultural policy by using time series method. For the analytical tools, decomposition time series methods and regression technique were employed in computing seasonal fluctuation and cyclical fluctuation of population migration. Also, this study predicted farmhouse, rural population till the 2000's by means of the mathematical methods. The analytical forms employed in forecasting farmhouse, rural population were Exponential curve, Gompertz curve and Transcendental form. The major findings of this study were identified as follows: 1) Rural population and farmhouse population began to decrease from 1965 and hastily went down since 1975. Rural population which accounted for 36.4 percent, 35.6 percent of national population respectively in 1960 diminished about two times: 17.5 percent, 17.1 percent respectively. 2) The rapid decreasing of the rural population was caused because of the outflow of rural people to the urban regions. Of course, that was also caused from the natural decreases but the main reason was heavily affected more the former than the latter. In the outflowing course shaped from rural to the urban regions, rural people concentrated on such metropolis as Seoul, Pusan, Keanggi. But these trends were diminishing slowly. On the other hand, compared with that of the 1970's the migration to Keanggi was still increasing in the 1980's. That is, people altered the way of migration from the migration to Seoul, Pusan to the migration to the out-skirts of Seoul. 3) The seasonal fluctuation index of population migration has gone down since the June which the request of agricultural labor force increases and has turned to be greatly wanted in the March as result of decomposition time series method. As result of cyclical analysis, the cyclical patterns of migration have greatly 7 cycle. 4) As result of forecasting the rural and farmhouse population, rural and farmhouse population in the 2000 will be about 9,655(thousand/people) and 4,429(thousand/people) respectively. Thus, it is important to analyze the probloms that rural and farmhouse population will decrease or increase by the degree. But fairly defining the agricultural into a industry that supply the food, this problem - how much our nation need the rural and farmhouse population - is greatly significant too. Therefore, the basic problems of the agricultural including the outflows of rural people are the earning differentials between rural and urban regions. And we should regard the problems of the gap of relative incomes between rural and urban regions as the main task of the agricultural policy and treat the agricultural policy in the viewpoint of developing economic equilibrium than efficiency by using actively the natural resources of the rural regions.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.161-173
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• 2021

The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.367-377
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• 2011

This paper investigates the determination factors' variation of real estate price after sub-prime financial crisis, in korea, using a VAR model. The model includes land price, housing price, housing rent (Jensei) price, which time period is from 2000:1Q to 2011:2Q and uses interest rate, real GDP, consumer price index, KOSPI, the number of housing construction, the amount of land sales and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. Data cover two sub-periods and divided by 2008:3Q that occurred the sub-prime crisis; one is a period of 2000:1Q to 2008:3Q, the other is based a period of 2000:1Q to 2011:2Q. As a result, Comparing sub-prime crisis before and after, land price come out that the influence of real GDP is expanding, but current interest rate's variation is weaken due to the stagnation of current economic status and housing construction market. Housing price is few influenced to interest rate and real GDP, but it is influenced its own variation or Jensei price's variation. According to the Jensei price's rapidly increasing in nowadays, housing price might be increasing a rising possibility. Jensei price is also weaken the influence of all economic index, housing price, comparing before sub-prime financial crisis and it is influenced its own variation the same housing price. As you know, real estate price is weakened market basic value factors such as, interest rate, real GDP, because it is influenced exogenous economic factors such as population structural changes. Economic participators, economic officials, consumer, construction supplyers need to access an accurate observation about current real estate market and economic status.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.167-199
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• 2005

The following policy implications can be drawn from this study: 1) The Air Pollution Emission Amount Report published by the Ministry of Environment since 1991 classifies industries into 4 sectors, i. e., heating, manufacturing, transportation and power generation. Currently, the usability of report is very low and extra efforts should be given to refine the current statistics and to improve the industrial classification. 2) Big pollution industries are as follows - s7, s17 and s20. The current air pollution control policy for these sectors compared to other sectors are found to be inefficient. This finding should be noted in the implementation of future air pollution policy. 3) s10 and s17 are found to be a big polluting industrial sector and its pollution reduction effect is also significant. 4) The effect of emission coefficient (${\Delta}f$) has the biggest impact on the reduction of emission amount change and the effect of economic growth coefficient (${\Delta}y$) has the biggest impact on the increase of emission volume. The effect of production technology factor (${\Delta}D$) and the effect of the change of the final demand structure (${\Delta}u$) are insignificant in terms of the change of emission volume. 5) Further studies on emission estimation techniques on each industry sector and the economic analysis are required to promote effective enforcement of the total volume control system of air pollutants, the differential management of pollution causing industrial sectors and the integration of environment and economy. 6) Korea's economic growth in 1990 is not pollution-driven in terms of the Barry Commoner's hypothesis, even though the overall industrial structure and the demand structure are not environmentally friendly. It indicates that environmental policies for the improvement of air quality depend mainly on the government initiatives and systematic national level consideration of industrial structures and the development of green technologies are not fully incorporated.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.107-117
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• 2007

Dispersion characteristics and envirounmental impactes of the stream sediments were investigated and geochemical disaster in the Namhae-Hwagye area was predicted. Stream sediments having no possibility of contamination effect and representing drainage basins were collected. Major and hazardous elements concentrations were determined by XRF, ICP-AES and NAA analysis methods. Acid decomposition for the ICP-AES have been used $HClO_4$ and HF with $200^{\circ}C$ heating at 1'st and after that $HClO_4$, HF and HCl with $200^{\circ}C$ heating at 2'nd stage. Hazardous elements concentrations for the stream sediments in the Namhae area were Cu $5.66{\sim}168\;ppm$, Pb $18.0{\sim}40.7\;ppm$, Cr $21.6{\sim}147\;ppm$, Co $4.86{\sim}25.3\;ppm$. Hazardous elements concentrations for the stream sediments in the Hwagye area were Cu $16.4{\sim}41.2\;ppm$, Pb $26.5{\sim}37.5\;ppm$ Cr $79.6{\sim}153\;ppm$, Co $15.7{\sim}29.5\;ppm$. Concentration of Cu and Co in the stream sediments show a negative correlation with $SiO_2$ in all study area. According to E.I.(Enrichment Index) of stream sediments was not enriched in study area. And average E.I. was 0.35 (Namhae) and 0.56 (Hwagye) respectively. The stream sediments were enriched as in order of Pb > Cr > Co > Cu. And the average of Enrichment Factor (E.F.) was 0.46 to 2.84, respectively. E.F. concentration of Cu and Co were nearly similar enrichment characteristic but E.F. concentration of Cr were higher enrichnent characteristic in Namhae than Hwagye area. Pb was highly enriched in all study area but the tolerable level that used to investigate the enrichment degree of hazardous elements, was not exposed to harmful hazardous elements.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.61-70
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• 2022

This study evaluates the economic values for the several first precipitation events during Changma period. The selected three years are 2015, 2019, and 2020, where average precipitation amounts across the 58 Korean stations are 12.8, 20.1 and 13.3 mm, respectively. The four categories are used to assess the values including air quality improvement, water resource acquisition/accumulation, drought mitigation, and forest fire prevention/recovery. Economic values for these three years are estimated 50~150 billion won. Among the four factors considered, the effect of air quality improvement is most highly valued, amounting to 70 to 90% of the total economic values. Wet decomposition of air pollution (PM₁₀, NO₂, CO, and SO₂) is the primary reason. The next valuable element is water resource acquisition, which is estimated 9~15 billion won. Effects of drought mitigation and fire prevention are deemed relatively small. This study is the first to estimate the value of the precipitation events during Changma onset. An analysis for more Changma years will be performed to achieve a more reliable estimate.