• Title/Summary/Keyword: Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives

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CONSENSUS N-TREES AND REMOVAL INDEPENDENCE

  • Powers, R.C.
    • Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.473-490
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    • 2000
  • Removal independence is a translation of Arrow's axiom of independence of irrelevant alternatives for social welfare functions to an axiom about consensus functions involving n-trees. It is shown that a consensus function is removal independent if and only if it is expressible as th union of three types of functions.

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A Review on Marketing Models' Implications to Market Positioning: With a Focus on the Hauser and Shugan Model (마케팅 모형의 포지셔닝 관련 시사점에 대한 고찰: Hauser and Shugan 모형을 중심으로)

  • Won, Jee-Sung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - Marketing scholars have developed various types of mathematical models for describing marketing phenomenon, because there is no single model comprehensive enough to incorporate all the relevant marketing phenomena. This study tries to summarize the behavioral foundations and the mathematical derivations of the most widely used marketing models and discusses their strategic implications. This study selected four representative marketing models: multinomial logit(MNL) model, elimination-by-aspects(EBA) model, Hauser and Shugan model and Bass diffusion model. Especially, this study focuses on Hauser and Shugan(1983)'s Defender model and discusses the model's behavioral foundation and its implications. Research design, data, and methodology - Of the four selected model, the multinomial logit model is selected as the basic normative model and the other three models are described as descriptive models in contrast. Starting the discussion from the multinomial logit model, this study explains what important strategic variables are incorporated in each of the four models. The IIA(independence of irrelevant alternatives) axiom and Luce choice model is also discussed in relation to the multinomial logit model. The concept of 'efficient frontier' is discussed in relation to Hauser and Shugan's model. Graphs and tables are used to represent the key implications. No empirical study is included. Results - The analyses of the mathematical marketing models are shown to be very useful in understanding the essence of positioning strategy. The multinomial logit model implies the importance of increasing utility or consumer preference level. The EBA model implies the importance of lowering the inter-brand similarity and dominating the competitors. Hauser and Shugan model implies the importance of considering customer heterogeneity distribution in selecting the target market. Conclusions - It is shown that the concepts of 'efficient frontier' is useful in understanding the effectiveness of positioning strategy. Market positioning can be understood as occupying some place on the efficient frontier. The important strategic implications can be summarized as follows: Always try to increase customer preference by providing what they value, and differentiate from competing alternatives as much as possible. The best positioning strategy is to dominate all the competitors and the worst is to be dominated by the competitors.

A Critical Review on Behavioral Economics with a Focus on Prospect Theory and EBA Model (프로스펙트 이론과 속성별 제거모형을 중심으로 한 행동경제학에 대한 비판적 고찰)

  • Won, Jee-Sung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - For the past several decades, behavioral economics or behavioral decision theory has undergone rapid development. This study provides a critical review of the development of behavioral economics with a focus on what are deemed to be core theories in the field. Starting from the utility function proposed by Daniel Bernoulli in the 18th century, the development history of utility functions until the emergence of the prospect theory is thoroughly reviewed. Some of the experimental results violating the traditionally assumed utility function and supporting the prospect theory value function are summarized. The most representative principles of rational choice are transitivity, independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA), and regularity. The development of behavioral economics has been triggered by finding counter-examples to these principles. Some of the choice behaviors discussed in this study as counter-examples to the traditional theories of rational choice are the St. Petersburg paradox; the Allais paradox; gambling behavior; and the various context effects including the similarity effect, attraction effect, and the compromise effect. The Elimination-by-Aspects (EBA) model, which was proposed as an explanation for the similarity effect, is discussed in detail as well. Based on the literature review and further analysis, this study summarizes the relationship between the context effects, prospect theory, and EBA model. Research design, data, and methodology - This study provides an extensive literature review on several important theories in the field of behavioral decision theory and adds some critical comments to the theories and the relationships among them. This study first reviews the development of utility functions. Daniel Bernoulli introduced the concept of utility function to solve the St. Petersburg paradox. In the mid-20th century, Herbert Simon proposed the "satisficing" heuristic and presented a value function with a shape different from traditional utility functions. This study highlights the strengths and weaknesses of several utility functions proposed until the emergence of the prospect theory value function. Results - This study posits that prospect theory and EBA model are the two most important theories in the field of behavioral decision theory. They can explain various choice behaviors that traditional utility maximization analysis has been unable to. The application of these models to various fields is further increasing nowadays. This study explains how prospect theory and the EBA model can be used to explain the context effects. Conclusions - The traditional economic theory relies on a single variable called "utility" in explaining consumer choice. However, this study argues that, in investigating consumer choice, several other variables should also be considered. These are the similarity among alternatives, an alternative's prototypicality within the category, the dominance relationship between alternatives, and the reference point in evaluating alternatives. Due to the development of behavioral economics, we are now closer to a more complete understanding of consumer choice behavior than in the past when we had only a single tool called utility.

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Formulating the Landscape Preference Model Using a Mixed Conditional Logit (조건부 로짓함수를 이용한 경관선호 모델: 지리산 국립공원 방문자를 대상으로)

  • Lee, Deokjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.95 no.6
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    • pp.768-777
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study lies in formulating the landscape preference model using a conditional logit that involves the effect of visual elements as well as landscape itself on landscape preferences. To measure landscape preferences, a photo-questionnaire composed of paired photographs of the Cairngorms National Park of Scotland and the Jirisan National Park of Korea was distributed to visitors to the Jirisan National Park of Korea. Visual elements of landscape quantitatively measured by photogrammetry were reduced to orthogonal principal components that were subsequently used as explanatory variables in a conditional logit. As a result, the mixed conditional logit including the effect of landscape itself satisfied the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) property and showed reliable goodness of fit (${\rho}^2=0.25$). It was concluded that the mixed conditional logit including the effect of landscape itself was appropriate for landscape preference model rather than usual conditional logit excluding the effect.

Inherent Random Heterogeneity Logit Model for Stated Preference Freight Mode Choice (SP 화물수단선택을 위한 Inherent Random Heterogeneity 로짓 모형 연구)

  • KIM, Kang-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2002
  • Freight mode choice models are essential to the analysis of many areas of transport research. However, observations of actual market choices have only been made in a limited number of situations. Therefore, stated preference(SP) techniques have emerged as an alternative source of actual market choices to be used for estimating freight mode choice models. Considerable confidence exists about SP data, but little consideration has been given to the potential for estimation bias. This paper has been motivated by the theoretical side of estimating SP discrete choice models, focusing on a case study of freight mode choice. Recently developed simulation methods are used to construct inherent random heterogeneity legit models, which consider individual heterogeneity, its inheritance to the next choices and overcome the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. This Paper contributes to the development of models dealing with heterogeneity and its inheritance, and sheds light on the heterogeneity of freight transport.

A study on logit choice probability model taking into account the problems of common-nodes and common-links (노드중복과 링크중복문제를 고려한 로짓선택확률의 비교연구)

  • 백승걸;임용택;임강원
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2000
  • One Problem of the choice Property in logit model is interpreted as the Problem of common links and common nodes in choice set. Common node Problem Plays important role in deciding the efficiency of network loading and common link problem is connected with choice Problem, both of which are to be solved to improve the logit choice model. Although much need has been pointed out for research on the topic, however, no Paper as yet considers these two factors at the same time. In the Paper we develop a new logit formulation, which is able to ease the logit Problem, widely known as the Problem of IIA(Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives). An example network is used to assess the Proposed model and compare it with other conventional models. From the results, we find out that the model is superior to others.

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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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Analysis of Factors of Farmers' Use of Information Technology Equipment When Selling Agricultural Products (농산물 판매시 농가들의 정보화 기기 이용 선택 결정요인 분석)

  • Yi, Hyangmi;Goh, Jongtae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.121-134
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    • 2018
  • By using the raw data of the 2015 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery Consensus that surveyed the farmers engaged in agriculture, forestry and fishery in 2015, this study investigated the effects of the characteristics of the farms in Gangwon-do on the utilization of the digital devices, which was classified into computers usage only, smartphones usage only, both computers and smartphones usage, and no digital device usage. This study used the Multinomial Logit Model for the above purpose. Moreover, the IIA(Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) method of the Multinomial Logit Model was analyzed to be suitable. Upon the result of the analysis, when all the other variables were constant in the average, the probability of choosing both computers and smartphones increased by 0.02% as the family member living together with the farm owner increased by 1 person. In addition, the farms with agricultural machineries have 0.03% increased probability of using smartphones to sell their agricultural products, when compared with the farms without agricultural machinery. Moreover, for the farms with high sales profit of the agricultural products, the probability of using computers and the probability of using smartphones increased by 0.04% and 0.01%, respectively, and the probability of using both computers and smartphones increased by 0.02%. On the other hand, for the farms affiliated with the agricultural organization, the probability of using both computers and smartphones increased by 0.17%, and the probability of using only smartphones and the probability of using only computers increased by 0.16% and 0.15%, respectively. In case of selling to the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation(NACF), the probability of using smartphones increased by 0.11% if all other variables were to be constant in the average. In particular, the farms participating in the agriculture-related industries have 1.09% increased probability of using computers, have 0.92% increased probability of using smartphones, and 0.85% increased probability of using both computers and smartphones. Therefore, the implications suggested based on the results of the analysis are as follows. First, the farms' choices of the digital devices are made independently. Hence, the future agricultural industry business platform establishment should necessarily consider the types of farms' choices of the digital devices in the future. Second, since the usage of digital devices has a generally positive influence on the farm household income, digital education to improve farmers' ability to use the digital devices should be urgently provided in order to improve the farm household income in the farms in Gangwon-do. Third, because the digital devices used to sell agricultural products differ depending on the age of the farm owner, it would be desirable to target the younger generation of the farm owners rather than establishing the agricultural industry business platform for the farms in the aged farm villages. Fourth, it would be advisable for the future agricultural business platform to consider the characteristics of agricultural products sales source.

Multinomial Logit Modeling: Focus on Regional Rail Trips (다항로짓모형을 이용한 지역간 철도통행 연구)

  • Kim, Gyeong-Tae;Lee, Jin-Seon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.1 s.94
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    • pp.109-119
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    • 2007
  • Increasingly, the emphasis in regional Passenger rail Planning is finding ways to more efficiently use existing facilities, with particular attention being Paid to Policies designed to spread Peak-Period travel demand more evenly throughout the week with consideration of train classification. In this context the individual's choice of time to travel is of crucial significance. This paper investigates the use of multinomial logit analysis to model ridership by rail classification using data collected for travel from Seoul to Busan during the one week in October 2004. The Particular model form that was successfully calibrated was the multinomial logit (MNL) model : it describes the choice mechanism that will Permit rail systems and operations to be planned on a more reliable basis. The assumption of independently and identically distributed(IID) error terms in the MNL model leads to its infamous independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. Relaxation of the IID assumption has been undertaken along a number or isolated dimensions leading to the development of the MNL model. For business and related rail travel patterns, the most important variables of choice were time and frequency to the chosen destination. The calibrated model showed high agreement between observed and Predicted market shares. The model is expected to be of use to railroad authorities in Planning and determining business strategies in the Increasingly competitive environment or regional rail transport.

An Analysis on Consumer Preference for Attributes of Agricultural Box Scheme (농산물 꾸러미 속성별 소비자선호 분석)

  • Park, Jae-Dong;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Jang, Woo-Whan;Lim, Cheong-Ryong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we analyze consumer preferences based on the agricultural box scheme attributes, and make a suggestion for business revival. We estimate the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for box scheme attributes using a choice experiment. Attributes include the bundle method, the delivery method, and price. To select an efficient model for statistical analysis, we evaluate the conditional logit model, heteroscedastic extreme value model(HEV model), multinomial probit model, and mixed logit model under different assumptions. The results of these four models show that the bundle method, the delivery method, and price are statistically significant in explaining the probability of participation in a box scheme. The results of likelihood ratio tests show that the heteroscedastic extreme value model is the most appropriate for our survey data. The results also indicate that MWTP for a change from fixed type to selection type is KRW 7,096.6. MWTP for a change from parcel service to direct delivery and cold-chain delivery are KRW 3,497.5 and KRW 7,532.7, respectively. The results of this study may contribute to the government's local food policies.