• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.643-648
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• 2005

Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) has become increasingly used as a rapid, accurate method of evaluating some chemical constituents in cereal grains and forages. If samples could be analyzed without drying and grinding, then sample preparation time and costs may be reduced. This study was conducted to develop robust NIRS equations to predict fermentation quality of corn (Zea mays) silage and to select acceptable sample preparation methods for prediction of fermentation products in corn silage by NIRS. Prior to analysis, samples (n = 112) were either oven-dried and ground (OD), frozen in liquid nitrogen and ground (LN) and intact fresh (IF). Samples were scanned from 400 to 2,500 nm with an NIRS 6,500 monochromator. The samples were divided into calibration and validation sets. The spectral data were regressed on a range of dry matter (DM), pH and short chain organic acids using modified multivariate partial least squares (MPLS) analysis that used first and second order derivatives. All chemical analyses were conducted with fresh samples. From these treatments, calibration equations were developed successfully for concentrations of all constituents except butyric acid. Prediction accuracy, represented by standard error of prediction (SEP) and $R^2_{v}$ (variance accounted for in validation set), was slightly better with the LN treatment ($R^2$ 0.75-0.90) than for OD ($R^2$ 0.43-0.81) or IF ($R^2$ 0.62-0.79) treatments. Fermentation characteristics could be successfully predicted by NIRS analysis either with dry or fresh silage. Although statistical results for the OD and IF treatments were the lower than those of LN treatment, intact fresh (IF) treatment may be acceptable when processing is costly or when possible component alterations are expected.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.99-106
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• 2010

In this paper, we present two methods for obtaining prediction intervals for the times to failure of units censored in multiple stages in a progressively censored sample from proportional hazard rate models. A numerical example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are presented to illustrate the prediction methods.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.423-435
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• 2021

Although existing algorithms can predict wind speed using historical observation data, for engineering feasibility, most use moment methods and probability density functions to estimate fitted parameters. However, extreme wind speed prediction accuracy for long-term return periods is not always dependent on how the optimized frequency distribution curves are obtained; long-term return periods emphasize general distribution effects rather than marginal distributions, which are closely related to potential extreme values. Moreover, there are different wind speed parent sample types; how to theoretically select the proper extreme value distribution is uncertain. The influence of different sampling time intervals has not been evaluated in the fitting process. To overcome these shortcomings, updated steps are introduced, involving parameter sensitivity analysis for different sampling time intervals. The extreme value prediction accuracy of unknown parent samples is also discussed. Probability analysis of mean wind is combined with estimation of the probability plot correlation coefficient and the maximum likelihood method; an iterative estimation algorithm is proposed. With the updated steps and comparison using a Monte Carlo simulation, a fitting policy suitable for different parent distributions is proposed; its feasibility is demonstrated in extreme wind speed evaluations at Longhua and Chuansha meteorological stations in Shanghai, China.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제11권5호
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• pp.580-585
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• 1998

The study was conducted to determine if variation in protein yield can be explained by expressions of early lactation somatic cell score (SCS) and if prediction can be improved by including SCS among the predictors. A data set was prepared (n = 663,438) from Wisconsin Dairy Improvement Association (USA) records for protein yield with sample days near 20. Stepwise regression was used requiring F statistic (p < .01) for any variable to stay in the model. Separate analyses were run for 12 combinations of four seasons and first three parities. Selection of SCS variables was not consistent across seasons or lactations. Coefficients of detennination ($R^2$) ranged from 51 to 61% with higher values for earlier lactations. Including any expression of SCS in the prediction equations improved $R^2$ by < 1 %. SCS was associated with milk yield on the sample day, but the association was not strong enough to improve the prediction of future yield when other expressions of milk yield were in the model.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제15권11호
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• pp.4028-4042
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• 2021

Aiming at the problem of software defect prediction difficulty caused by insufficient software defect marker samples and unbalanced classification, a semi-supervised software defect prediction model based on a tri-training algorithm was proposed by combining feature normalization, over-sampling technology, and a Tri-training algorithm. First, the feature normalization method is used to smooth the feature data to eliminate the influence of too large or too small feature values on the model's classification performance. Secondly, the oversampling method is used to expand and sample the data, which solves the unbalanced classification of labelled samples. Finally, the Tri-training algorithm performs machine learning on the training samples and establishes a defect prediction model. The novelty of this model is that it can effectively combine feature normalization, oversampling techniques, and the Tri-training algorithm to solve both the under-labelled sample and class imbalance problems. Simulation experiments using the NASA software defect prediction dataset show that the proposed method outperforms four existing supervised and semi-supervised learning in terms of Precision, Recall, and F-Measure values.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.143-153
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• 2018

Correlation among different factors must be considered for selection of influencing factors in safety monitoring of high dam including positive correlation of variables. Therefore, a new factor selection method was constructed based on Copula entropy and mutual information theory, which was deduced and optimized. Considering the small sample size in high dam monitoring and distribution of daily monitoring samples, a computing method that avoids causality of structure as much as possible is needed. The two-dimensional normal information diffusion and fuzzy reasoning of pattern recognition field are based on the weight theory, which avoids complicated causes of the studying structure. Hence, it is used to dam safety monitoring field and simplified, which increases sample information appropriately. Next, a complete system integrating high dam monitoring and uncertainty prediction method was established by combining Copula entropy theory and information diffusion theory. Finally, the proposed method was applied in seepage monitoring of Nuozhadu clay core-wall rockfill dam. Its selection of influencing factors and processing of sample data were compared with different models. Results demonstrated that the proposed method increases the prediction accuracy to some extent.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2008년도 춘계 학술발표회 초청강연 및 논문집
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• pp.926-931
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• 2008

This paper show two different standardized test methods(Japanese Geotechnical Society; JGS 2003). One test is a "Test Method for Frost Heave Prediction Test, JGS 0171-2003", and the other test is a "Test Method for Frost Susceptibility, JGS 0172-2003". The purpose of this test is to obtain the freezing rate(freezing speed), frost heave ratio(heave to sample height), frost heave rate(heaving speed), and other parameters to be used for frost heave prediction and determine the frost susceptibility by freezing test with water intake. This method shall be used to predict the frost heave in frozen ground and evaluate the frost susceptibility of natural and replacement materials.

• Near Infrared Analysis
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.35-39
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• 2000

The purpose of this research was to find out suitable soil sample preparation and sample holding tools for NIR reflection radiation for estimating soil components. NIR reflectance was scanned at 2nm intervals from 1,100 to 2,500nm with an InfraAlyzer 500(Bran+Luebbe Co.). Coarse(2.0mm) and fine(0.5mm) soil sample and various sample holding tools were used to obtain mean diffuse reflection of the soil for the calibration and validation of the calibration set in estimating moisture, organic matter and total nitrogen of the soils. Multiple linear regression was used to obtain the best correlation of NIR spectroscopy method. Correlation of NIR spectroscopy method. Correlation of NIR spectra for finely and coarsely sized soil did not show much difference. The standard errors of prediction(SE) using different types of sample holding tools for organic matter, total nitrogen and soil moisture were better than 0.765, 0.041 and 0.63% respectively. From the results it can be concluded that NIR spectroscopy with flow type cell could be used as a fast routine testing method in quantitative determination of organic matter, total nitrogen and soil moisture.

• 재무관리연구
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.221-237
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• 1995

When we apply parametric models to the movement of stock prices, we don't know whether they are really correct specifications. In the paper, any prior conditional mean structure is not assumed. By applying the nonparametric model, we see if it better performs (than the random walk model) in terms of out-of-sample prediction. An interesting finding is that the random walk model is still the best. There doesn't seem to exist any form of nonlinearity (not to mention linearity) in stock prices that can be exploitable in terms of point prediction.

• Elastomers and Composites
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• 제52권4호
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• pp.237-241
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• 2017

The tensile strength (TS) and elongation-at-break (EB) loss of a CR/CB rubber composite sample prepared for the automotive parts were measured after accelerated thermal ageing at temperatures of 100, 120, 140, and $150^{\circ}C$. The change in TS was observed to be linear from the master curve prepared using the time-temperature superposition-principle (TTSP). An Arrhenius type of shift factor, $a_T$ was used to predict the life time of the sample, and a plot of ln $a_T$ vs. 1/T was also shown to be linear. The activation energy ($E_a$) of the sample was calculated as 70.30 kJ/mole from the Arrhenius plot. The expected life time of the sample was predicted at the given operating conditions by applying Arrhenius analysis. Assuming the $E_a$ value was constant at lower operating condition, life time of the sample was calculated as 2.3 years when the life limit was set as time to reach the 20% decrease of the initial TS value at operating temperature of $40^{\circ}C$.